Fifteen Games To Go

[Triggaaar]

Fair enough - if you want to waste a couple of hours of your life too, you're welcome!

Ok, took 20 mins. You're wrong, we could win the next two and still get relegated.

 

[Triggaaar]

1		Birmingham City	46	20	10	16	46:38	8	70
2		Cardiff City	46	19	13	14	46:40	6	70
3		Ipswich Town	46	20	9	17	47:47	0	69
4		Burnley FC	46	19	11	16	52:37	15	68
5		Sheffield Wednesday	46	19	11	16	54:43	11	68
6		Huddersfield Town	46	20	8	18	53:48	5	68
7		Fulham FC	46	19	11	16	59:56	3	68
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	20	7	18	42:28	14	67
9		Reading FC	46	19	10	17	43:38	5	67
10		Preston North End	46	18	13	15	38:36	2	67
11		Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	19	10	17	49:48	1	67
12		Leeds United	46	18	13	15	39:39	0	67
13		Brentford FC	46	20	7	19	51:54	-3	67
14		Milton Keynes Dons	46	20	7	19	37:45	-8	67
15		Bristol City	46	19	10	17	39:51	-12	67
16		Hull City	46	20	6	20	49:32	17	66
17		Derby County	46	18	12	16	45:37	8	66
18		Nottingham Forest	46	18	12	16	39:34	5	66
19		Queens Park Rangers	46	18	12	16	46:44	2	66
20		Rotherham United	46	20	6	20	50:57	-7	66
21		Blackburn Rovers	45	17	14	14	39:32	7	65
22		Brighton & Hove Albion	46	17	12	17	42:43	-1	63
23		Charlton Athletic	46	6	11	29	28:70	-42	29
24		Bolton Wanderers	46	4	13	29	31:67	-36	25

 

[GT49er]

Ok, took 20 mins. You're wrong, we could win the next two and still get relegated.

Perhaps you didn't take such care in putting in the remaining 180 results as I did! 63 points and we do stay up, according to that programme, if you input results as per your formula (where there were games between two teams that had to lose every match, I put them down as draws - except for ours, where I programmed us to lose).

Anyway, I'm not doing it all again to give you a screen grab!

 

[GT49er]

1		Birmingham City	46	20	10	16	46:38	8	70
2		Cardiff City	46	19	13	14	46:40	6	70
3		Ipswich Town	46	20	9	17	47:47	0	69
4		Burnley FC	46	19	11	16	52:37	15	68
5		Sheffield Wednesday	46	19	11	16	54:43	11	68
6		Huddersfield Town	46	20	8	18	53:48	5	68
7		Fulham FC	46	19	11	16	59:56	3	68
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	20	7	18	42:28	14	67
9		Reading FC	46	19	10	17	43:38	5	67
10		Preston North End	46	18	13	15	38:36	2	67
11		Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	19	10	17	49:48	1	67
12		Leeds United	46	18	13	15	39:39	0	67
13		Brentford FC	46	20	7	19	51:54	-3	67
14		Milton Keynes Dons	46	20	7	19	37:45	-8	67
15		Bristol City	46	19	10	17	39:51	-12	67
16		Hull City	46	20	6	20	49:32	17	66
17		Derby County	46	18	12	16	45:37	8	66
18		Nottingham Forest	46	18	12	16	39:34	5	66
19		Queens Park Rangers	46	18	12	16	46:44	2	66
20		Rotherham United	46	20	6	20	50:57	-7	66
21		Blackburn Rovers	45	17	14	14	39:32	7	65
22		Brighton & Hove Albion	46	17	12	17	42:43	-1	63
23		Charlton Athletic	46	6	11	29	28:70	-42	29
24		Bolton Wanderers	46	4	13	29	31:67	-36	25

Sh1t! - I should have kept a screen grab to post!

 

[dazzer6666]

Sh1t! - I should have kept a screen grab to post!

You should......complete gobbledegook on tapatalk. Anyway - pretty cool though - We could be top after playing brizzle, but still technically go down. That would be some meltdown [emoji23]

 

[Triggaaar]

Sh1t! - I should have kept a screen grab to post!

I don't doubt that you worked it out in a way that meant we'd stay up on 63 points, but you'd find the other teams points spread out more, whereas I've made it so they all have similar, and that similar is just above us.

In my calculation, we were top after 37 games, and still relegated. You could make it so that we'd be relegated and pretty much any other team are champions.

 

[The Camel]

I think the target figure for automatic promotion will be a lower than the average this year.

Such a strong division with at least 8 very good teams taking points of each other.

83 points might well be enough this time around.

 

[Machiavelli]

Wo, don't change the question. Of course it's not going to bloody happen, that's not what anyone was suggesting. The questions was, is it mathematically possible, and you said no.

You flogging your discipline again?
PS can you explain to me/us how, in order to finish in an automatic place, we don't need to finish either at least one point better (or with a better goal difference, and then whatever other criteria is used) than the third-placed team. It's a simple logic, which usually works best.

 

[GT49er]

I don't doubt that you worked it out in a way that meant we'd stay up on 63 points, but you'd find the other teams points spread out more, whereas I've made it so they all have similar, and that similar is just above us.

In my calculation, we were top after 37 games, and still relegated. You could make it so that we'd be relegated and pretty much any other team are champions.

I used the 'make the team with the lower league position win' - that's what you suggested as a means of evenly distributing the remaining points.

Oh **** it, I'm not going there again! - I admit to being wrong about us being mathematically clear of relegation now, but having worked my way through that programme, I'm still happy that after winning the next two we're safe. In every way!

........................and preferably out of the EU, eh?!!

 

[Triggaaar]

can you explain to me/us how, in order to finish in an automatic place, we don't need to finish either at least one point better (or with a better goal difference, and then whatever other criteria is used) than the third-placed team.

We do need to finish just (1 point or GD) better than 3rd.

What makes it less straightforward is when you try to come up with an average number of points required based on previous seasons (see other thread for discussion)

 

[Triggaaar]

I used the 'make the team with the lower league position win' - that's what you suggested as a means of evenly distributing the remaining points.

Yes, as a quick and simple method to show that we could get relegated at the moment, and you basically agree there, so that's cool. I went on to say we could probably win our next two games, and still get relegated. That's true, but the formula needs a little tweaking, as that would put us above Hull and 'boro, so they're no longer teams that can lose every game and still finish above us. And it makes the whole league closer (as we have 6 more points), so you need to make some teams win even when they're above their opponent, as you know the losing team has a free game (eg, against us) coming up.

but having worked my way through that programme, I'm still happy that after winning the next two we're safe. In every way!

You didn't get a screen grab, I did. I've posted proof that we could win them and still get relegated. You just have to be a little more careful with the other results. Trust me GT

 

[GT49er]

trust me gt

never!

 

[warmleyseagull]

We do need to finish just (1 point or GD) better than 3rd.

What makes it less straightforward is when you try to come up with an average number of points required based on previous seasons (see other thread for discussion)

Not this again! I think the best way to explain the 'one point better than third' myth is last season. Had Middlesbrough beaten us on last game they would have had 1 point more than third placed Norwich and finished........well actually third because still would have been two points behind Watford.

 

[Triggaaar]

Not this again!

I was just responding to a question.

I think the best way to explain the 'one point better than third' myth is last season. Had Middlesbrough beaten us on last game they would have had 1 point more than third placed Norwich and finished........well actually third because still would have been two points behind Watford.

That's just one way to look at it. Had Bournemouth or Watford finished 1 point ahead of 3rd, they'd have finished 2nd. That's why it's not straightforward.

Like you say, not this again. It's all been covered in the other thread, so let's leave it in that one.

 

[warmleyseagull]

I was just responding to a question.
That's just one way to look at it. Had Bournemouth or Watford finished 1 point ahead of 3rd, they'd have finished 2nd. That's why it's not straightforward.

Like you say, not this again. It's all been covered in the other thread, so let's leave it in that one.

Happy to do so. My post was not aimed at you. Think your suggestion of average 2nd/3rd on other post is as good as any.

 

[Jimmy Come Lately]

1		Birmingham City	46	20	10	16	46:38	8	70
2		Cardiff City	46	19	13	14	46:40	6	70
3		Ipswich Town	46	20	9	17	47:47	0	69
4		Burnley FC	46	19	11	16	52:37	15	68
5		Sheffield Wednesday	46	19	11	16	54:43	11	68
6		Huddersfield Town	46	20	8	18	53:48	5	68
7		Fulham FC	46	19	11	16	59:56	3	68
8		Middlesbrough FC	45	20	7	18	42:28	14	67
9		Reading FC	46	19	10	17	43:38	5	67
10		Preston North End	46	18	13	15	38:36	2	67
11		Wolverhampton Wanderers	46	19	10	17	49:48	1	67
12		Leeds United	46	18	13	15	39:39	0	67
13		Brentford FC	46	20	7	19	51:54	-3	67
14		Milton Keynes Dons	46	20	7	19	37:45	-8	67
15		Bristol City	46	19	10	17	39:51	-12	67
16		Hull City	46	20	6	20	49:32	17	66
17		Derby County	46	18	12	16	45:37	8	66
18		Nottingham Forest	46	18	12	16	39:34	5	66
19		Queens Park Rangers	46	18	12	16	46:44	2	66
20		Rotherham United	46	20	6	20	50:57	-7	66
21		Blackburn Rovers	45	17	14	14	39:32	7	65
22		Brighton & Hove Albion	46	17	12	17	42:43	-1	63
23		Charlton Athletic	46	6	11	29	28:70	-42	29
24		Bolton Wanderers	46	4	13	29	31:67	-36	25

Based on that table you'd have to say that Bolton and Charlton deserved to be relegated, but we were agonisingly unlucky.

 

[Triggaaar]

Based on that table you'd have to say that Bolton and Charlton deserved to be relegated, but we were agonisingly unlucky.

We were top after 37 games, and relegated 9 games later.

 

[Rugrat]

There must be someone who is a GEEK and has time on their hands to put in the remaining fixtures for the top 8/9 clubs so that we can have a PREDICTOR table which determines if we go up/make the playoffs/have a whip round for a #BarberOut banner for the North Stand etc?

Here's one .... thought I could attach an Excel file but can't see how? Geek eh?

 

[Stat Brother]

You should......complete gobbledegook on tapatalk. Anyway - pretty cool though - We could be top after playing brizzle, but still technically go down. That would be some meltdown [emoji23]

It would easily be the greatest 10 weeks in the history of NSC.

BG's post count from last year wouldn't even make the top 10, as relegation loomed large.

Not to mention 'flouncetastic'.

 

[dazzer6666]

It would easily be the greatest 10 weeks in the history of NSC.

BG's post count from last year wouldn't even make the top 10, as relegation loomed large.

Not to mention 'flouncetastic'.

.......and think of all the Nigels coming out of the woodwork.....