Fifteen Games To Go

[Moshe Gariani]

Don't bet! But if you can work out a combination of results which sees us finish the season on 57 points with 21 teams ahead of us, I'll seriously consider the possibility of eating humble pie!

I think its easy to happen.

315 pts are needed to get 21 teams to 57 pts.

2 teams already have 57 pts.

19 teams need to get there. Between them they have 57 games against the 5 non-57pt-chasers. They can collectively take 171 pts from these games.

So the 19 need 144 other points from about 100 other games between themselves. Sharing out wins and losses optimally will do it comfortably.

What odds can you get on us to go down?

 

[GT49er]

I think its easy to happen.

315 pts are needed to get 21 teams to 57 pts.

2 teams already have 57 pts.

19 teams need to get there. Between them they have 57 games against the 5 non-57pt-chasers. They can collectively take 171 pts from these games.

So the 19 need 144 other points from about 100 other games between themselves. Sharing out wins and losses optimally will do it comfortably.

What odds can you get on us to go down?

So your prognosis requires:

1). Us to lose every match between now and the end of the season. Odds on that?

2). Middlesbrough, Hull, Charlton and Bolton to lose every remaining match this season, except those matches against each other. Odds about the same as for a Burkina Faso moon landing by 2020.

3). No other matches to be drawn.

4). Other matches to be spread around evenly, so that no-one breaks away, and no-one falls behind.

Odds would be such that if you put a tenner on it and won, you could buy Burgess Hill.



......ain't going to happen!

 

[Triggaaar]

Don't bet!

Damn

But if you can work out a combination of results which sees us finish the season on 57 points with 21 teams ahead of us, I'll seriously consider the possibility of eating humble pie!

Basically, if Hull, 'boro, Bolton and Charlton lose every game, and for every other game the team with the lowest points wins, we'd be in the relegation zone with 4 games to go. We could win our next two games, and still get relegated.

 

[Triggaaar]

Must be time for the traditional 'Teams That Can't Catch Us' thread shirley?

So can we still get relegated or not?

Almost certainly in theory, but not of course in practice.

Every one of the teams in the league could potentially catch us if we have a bad run and they play a blinder.

But no, we can't be relegated; that would need 21 teams to all get more than 57 points (or at a pinch, 57 points with a better goal difference). That can't happen now.

So your prognosis requires:

1). Us to lose every match between now and the end of the season. Odds on that?

2). Middlesbrough, Hull, Charlton and Bolton to lose every remaining match this season, except those matches against each other. Odds about the same as for a Burkina Faso moon landing by 2020.

3). No other matches to be drawn.

4). Other matches to be spread around evenly, so that no-one breaks away, and no-one falls behind.

Odds would be such that if you put a tenner on it and won, you could buy Burgess Hill.



......ain't going to happen!

Wo, don't change the question. Of course it's not going to bloody happen, that's not what anyone was suggesting. The questions was, is it mathematically possible, and you said no.

 

[Rambo]

Cardiff are unbeaten for 11 home games.

We haven't lost to Cardiff in the Championship since 2005.

 

[GT49er]

Damn
Basically, if Hull, 'boro, Bolton and Charlton lose every game, and for every other game the team with the lowest points wins, we'd be in the relegation zone with 4 games to go. We could win our next two games, and still get relegated.

Yes, I see where you're coming from, but what I don't think you're factoring in is that we're 8 games into the second round of matches, so many of your 19 chasing teams will already have played probably two or more of the five teams who have to lose every match - so that's 6 points fewer available to them. I reckon that just swings it in our favour.

Of course, proof one way or the other could only happen if someone goes through the entire remaining fixture list, applying your formula, adjusting the hypothetical league table after each match/round of matches. I don't suppose we've got any stattos on NSC desperate enough to do that............ :smiley:

 

[Stat Brother]

If I've read this right, we're as good as relegated...



...yes?

 

[Bozza]

We haven't lost to Cardiff in the Championship since 2005.

We've not lost to Manchester United in the Premier League ever.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yes, I see where you're coming from, but what I don't think you're factoring in is that we're 8 games into the second round of matches

GT, I'm not guessing.

so many of your 19 chasing teams will already have played probably two or more of the five teams who have to lose every match - so that's 6 points fewer available to them.

No it's not. The games against the teams that can lose every match are free wins, that doesn't mean they can't still win against the average teams who only need a few wins to overtake us.

Of course, proof one way or the other could only happen if someone goes through the entire remaining fixture list

Not really. It's quite simple, I promise.

I don't suppose we've got any stattos on NSC desperate enough to do that............ :smiley:

I'd have done it if someone was willing to bet me I guarantee it's mathematically possible for us to be relegated. Happy to offer 2-1 to anyone who disagrees.

 

[dazzer6666]

GT, I'm not guessing.

No it's not. The games against the teams that can lose every match are free wins, that doesn't mean they can't still win against the average teams who only need a few wins to overtake us.

Not really. It's quite simple, I promise.

I'd have done it if someone was willing to bet me I guarantee it's mathematically possible for us to be relegated. Happy to offer 2-1 to anyone who disagrees.

I'd agree with you.

Taking the bottom 5, their potential maximum points (ignoring the fact they might have to play each other) are

Franchise FC 76
B City 76
Rotherham 71
Charlton 70
Bolton 69

If we get no more points, we'd finish on 57, I reckon even if say 1/3rd of the remaining games of the above involved directly competing teams where they averaged say a point each, they'd still be on 59-66 leaving us in the bottom 3. Chances ? Bet365 aren't quoting odds - Cardiff are the least likely being quoted and they are 500/1

 

[Spicy]

Based on my calculations, i'm putting us at 102 points come the end of the season.

Based on us winning every single game. Even I am not that optimistic but here's hoping.

 

[GT49er]

No it's not. The games against the teams that can lose every match are free wins, that doesn't mean they can't still win against the average teams who only need a few wins to overtake us.

I'm still not convinced that those free wins which are no longer available (because they've already been played) won't work in our favour!

Still, two things we can agree on, I think. Firstly, it ain't going to happen , and secondly, if our upcoming tour of the west country brings us back the points, it doubly trebly definitely won't be possible!

 

[Triggaaar]

I'm still not convinced that those free wins which are no longer available (because they've already been played) won't work in our favour!

If a team has 15 games left, then they can win all of those 15 games, regardless as to whether or not they've already played our 4 losing teams, but yes, it makes it a tiny bit more difficult (from a maths point of view).

Still, two things we can agree on

Not if I can help it

secondly, if our upcoming tour of the west country brings us back the points, it doubly trebly definitely won't be possible!

We could win our next two games, and still be relegated. However, if we actually do win them, then by that time all of the other results that need to go my way won't have, so it would probably then be impossible.


PS GT:
This is the simplest way I can explain it:
Say there were 9 games left, 10 teams is the league (we've all got to play each other), we were top, and every team below us was on exactly 15 points less than us.
The 9 teams below us could win half their games each, and lose half each, plus win their games against us, meaning they all win 5 a lose 4. They could all overtake us on GD.

In that example, there are no teams that lose every game, and the average amount of wins each team needs is 5, out of 9 games - over 50%.

Now look at our league. Rotherham need 10 wins and a draw. Let's call it 11 wins out of 15. Brentford in the middle of the pack need 6 wins out of 15, much less than 50%. And Burnley need 1 draw out of 15 games.
So on average, the teams need to win a lot less than 50% of their games, so it's easy. And that's not even taking into account the free wins they all get against Hull, 'boro, Brighton, Burnley, Sheff Weds, Derby, Charlton, and Bolton (I include the likes of Derby because they can beat us, and one of the teams that aren't in the running, and still lose every game to the teams that need to catch us).

I don't know what else to say, it seems quite straight forward.

 

[Triggaaar]

Chances ? Bet365 aren't quoting odds - Cardiff are the least likely being quoted and they are 500/1

If you offered me 1 million to 1, I wouldn't take it.

 

[GT49er]

If you offered me 1 million to 1, I wouldn't take it.

You'd be right not to. Also, I have to eat humble pie and admit that you are right - sadly, after a few glasses of red wine, I found this handy little programme - http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ - and, even more sadly I worked it all the way through, using your formula to the end......and yes, we could be relegated.

The good news though, for all Brighton fans - and me in particular - is that six points from our upcoming tour of the west, and we can't be relegated then (and yes, I did go back and factor in wins against Cardiff and Brizzle as opposed to losses to check how that panned out)!

 

[maffew]

You'd be right not to. Also, I have to eat humble pie and admit that you are right - sadly, after a few glasses of red wine, I found this handy little programme - http://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/ - and, even more sadly I worked it all the way through, using your formula to the end......and yes, we could be relegated.

The good news though, for all Brighton fans - and me in particular - is that six points from our upcoming tour of the west, and we can't be relegated then (and yes, I did go back and factor in wins against Cardiff and Brizzle as opposed to losses to check how that panned out)!

Nooo so we are going down

 

[Bigtomfu]

Just 15 games to go to the end of a dramatic season for the Albion. If we continue in the same vein, 57 points from 31 matches, we should reach a total of 84 points (that's based on an average of 1.84 points per game).

Based on the last 5 seasons final Championship tables, that would definitely ensure a play-off spot and possibly, although unlikely, a top two finish. For that we would be looking at 87+ points.

In addition to the stats, we've also got the added intrigue of all the current top six sides having to play their promotion rivals at some time before the end of the season. For us, it's Sheffield Wednesday, Burnley and Derby at home, and Middlebrough away.

Gosh! It's all rather exciting isn't it?

Sorry didn't see this before I started my thread. Mods feel free to delete.

 

[GT49er]

Nooo so we are going down

Not if we win the next two we are not!

 

[Triggaaar]

The good news though, for all Brighton fans - and me in particular - is that six points from our upcoming tour of the west, and we can't be relegated then

Really? I'm so untrusting I don't believe that. Going to have a look at the link

 

[GT49er]

Really? I'm so untrusting I don't believe that. Going to have a look at the link

Fair enough - if you want to waste a couple of hours of your life too, you're welcome!