[Other Sport] Fertility rates fall to record low

[Thunder Bolt]

I’m not misunderstanding the issues, you just don’t agree with my perspective on it. You also fail to understand the changing nature of the job market, the existing reasons for labour shortage or what over population is doing to the planet.

Environmental issue

“People need food to survive, and as the world’s population grows, so too does the demand for food. To meet this demand:

• agricultural development has caused deforestation on a large scale. The shrinking forests are unable to counteract the effects of the increasing carbon emissions, causing temperatures to rise.
• This, in turn, has caused desertification, especially in the already vulnerable Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
• The resulting loss of arable land means less food production, which threatens to leave millions undernourished.
• A related problem is water scarcity, caused by increased salinization and the drying up of rivers, lakes, and streams.”

In the UK - There is NOT ample room for new housing if you care about the environment- I don’t want to live in a Country paved over by single occupancy housing or given over to intensive farming or covered in windfarms to meet the growing energy demands of the global population - I would like our valuable green areas left for leisure and wildlife. The current government has relaxed planning laws and introduced a new category of undeveloped land that can be built on called ‘grey sites’ which is actually prime scrub habitat, home to Nightingales and scarce warblers as well as beetles and other insects - this indicating that already the value of undeveloped land is under threat. We are losing habitat and thus our wildlife at an alarming rate;

“The UK’s wildlife is continuing to decline according to a new landmark study published today. Already classified as one of the world’s most nature-depleted countries, nearly one in six of the more than ten thousand species assessed (16%) are at risk of being lost from Great Britain”.

Landmark report shows UK wildlife’s devastating decline | The Wildlife Trusts

• World-leading study, State of Nature, finds no let-up in the decline of our wildlife, with one in six species at risk of being lost from Great Britain [1]. • State of Nature, the most comprehensive report on UK wildlife, also shows that the species studied have, on average, declined by 19% in...

www.wildlifetrusts.org

Immigration

Since Brexit, the immigrant workforce has fallen by 1% - ’There are large shortfalls in EU-origin workers in transportation and storage, wholesale and retail, accommodation and food, manufacturing, construction, and administration and support’. Many non-EU immigrants are seeking asylum or economic opportunities directly as a result of the West’s geo-political policies in Africa, Asia and the ME - we need to see asylum and poverty in developing countries in the context of Western proxy wars, Western workforce exploitation and natural resource theft.

There are plenty of potential working age people that come to the UK looking for work from Countries far worse off than people living in the UK - trouble is people don’t want them here. Yet immigrants form a vital part of the workforce but too many people don’t see it like that - they have succumbed to the Great Replacement conspiracy theory yet instead of admitting this, they construct arguments about long queues, shortage of housing, drain on healthcare because the Country is ‘already too crowded’ .

We can’t have it both ways. Either the Country is overpopulated or we allow an immigrant workforce to make up the shortfall in employment in the key areas listed above.




I don’t misunderstand the issue, I just see the problems and therefore the possible solutions from a different perspective than you do.

A full fact statement on how much urban building uses up land in Britain, green belt and arable farming land.

Has 92% of the country not been built on? - Full Fact

Estimates range between 88% and 99.9%. It also depends on if we include gardens and “green urban” areas.

fullfact.org

 

[FatSuperman]

Having a functioning health service would get hundreds of thousands of people off the sick. Retiring later is happening anyway. But I’m not convinced that employment opportunities will grow significantly over the next 30 years. I suspect that employment opportunities will fall, especially for the less skilled, because that’s low-hanging fruit for robotics companies.

Boston Dynamics already have their “Stretch” model unloading shipping containers for DHL, hard physical work in freezing conditions in winter, and boiling temperatures in summer. Their Spot model provides monitoring services in environments that are potentially hazardous to humans.

Their new humanoid robot (the new version of Atlas) isn’t on general sale yet, but is working at Hyundai as part of its beta testing prior to full launch, we don’t know what role(s) it’s performing, but we know the aim is to have it available to purchase in a 2-3 year timeframe, and history tells us that once the big breakthroughs are made, future revisions will centre around cost, battery life, and industry specific customisations/variants being offered.

What do we do with a population where 60% aren’t required to be economically productive but still need to eat, be housed, see doctors, want to indulge their preferred leisure activities? I don’t believe we need “moar people.”

Perhaps low birth rates reflect the reality of where civilisation is headed.

Low birth rates are where Western civilisation already is. The issue is that the other side of the solution doesn't yet exist.

Your question about what do we do when a large proportion don't need to be productive is the worrying thing. Do we end up in some sort of dystopian situation where where have a huge number of 'dolists', and a basic living stipend provided to them. You'd probably end up with a huge class divide, given no external incentive to work. It might be sort of ok at first, but you just know that the beast will need feeding more and more. The basic stipend needs to keep growing, so those working to create the new technologies etc will have to keep the world moving whilst the dolists just lounge about and fester more and more. Won't take much for some future-Farage to rile them up and overthrow whoever is managing to keep a lid on it all. We'd have to go to war, to feed a bunch of ill-trained conscripts into the grinder and reduce the issue, and simultaneously capture future productivity from another nation. That's assuming we could even win with our broken system.

I might have taken this a bit too far.

 

[BBassic]

So we stopped worrying and just decided to see what would happen.

I think the issue is I'm a very risk averse person and the idea of bringing a child into existence essentially on a whim sets off all of my alarms.

Without wanting to get too philosophical about it, life is a complex whirlwind of a thing. There's love and wonder and watching the Albion put four past Palace but life is also pain, it's death, it's fear.

There's a not insignifcant part of me that questions what right I have to bring a new human into that whirlwind because in some of my darkest moments I've wished my parents hadn't brought me in to it.

I hope this hasn't come across preachy or accusational; I appreciate the longer reply you gave.

 

[GOM]

I have two children who I adore to distraction. Yet, if we persist in going further down this mad cul-de-sac that we seem determined to travel, I will leave this world fearing for them.

We seem hell-bent on treating the greedy and selfish as role models, we mock the feeble, and the only political idea that this country seems capable of grasping is that “tax bill must go down.”

The hollowing out and selling off of our public services by spotty oiks clutching their PPE degrees, and the generations that will never know anything better than this depresses me utterly.

I would not now bring children into this world, and I feel guilt for having done so. We seem determined to sink lower and lower. What I see playing out here, and in America (who if we’re honest, own us wholesale) just leaves me feeling ill. Incredibly ill.

I do not blame anyone who looks at what’s involved in raising kids, looks at the world around them, and quite rightly thinks “f*** that.”

TLDR: I am available for motivational speaking and positive thinking seminars, book early to avoid disappointment.

Really, you feel guilty for having your own children ! Are they having a miserable life, do they feel your guilt ?

 

[GOM]

I think the issue is I'm a very risk averse person and the idea of bringing a child into existence essentially on a whim sets off all of my alarms.

Without wanting to get too philosophical about it, life is a complex whirlwind of a thing. There's love and wonder and watching the Albion put four past Palace but life is also pain, it's death, it's fear.

There's a not insignifcant part of me that questions what right I have to bring a new human into that whirlwind because in some of my darkest moments I've wished my parents hadn't brought me in to it.

I hope this hasn't come across preachy or accusational; I appreciate the longer reply you gave.

Life is not a complex whirlwind of a thing, it's just life. Pain and fear are normal, they are part of life and the cycle.

 

[BBassic]

Life is not a complex whirlwind of a thing, it's just life. Pain and fear are normal, they are part of life and the cycle.

And I'm saying I am uncomfortable with the idea of creating a life that I know will suffer pain and fear.

 

[Doonhamer7]

this is o e of my favourite topics

the work of Hans Rosling shows that “religion / culture“ has nothing to do with fertility rates, instead it is related to wealth: (gapminder is one of the greatest hidden gems on the internet)

Gapminder Tools

Animated global statistics that everyone can understand

www.gapminder.org

The work of Peter Zehan who interprets data, shows how demographics affects economics. (Unlike Japan, China is getting old before it gets rich)


I also attended a one day workshop with this man Graeme Codrington, (probably the best days training I’ve ever had). where we talked about strategy and how to correlate the trends for the future (TIDES - Technology, institutional change, demographic, environment, social), fascinating link of the new revolution that is occurring. We did even end up debate/discuss (he didn’t suggest it - conversation just led there) that compulsory euthanasia may be required.


in the book, “why the Germans do it better” by John Kampfner the reasoning behind Andrea Merkel allowance to increase Turkish immigration was German is aging faster than those European nations that had colonies and thus needed to start to replace the work force (correlated knock on effect is the rise of the AfD)

 

[chickens]

Low birth rates are where Western civilisation already is. The issue is that the other side of the solution doesn't yet exist.

Your question about what do we do when a large proportion don't need to be productive is the worrying thing. Do we end up in some sort of dystopian situation where where have a huge number of 'dolists', and a basic living stipend provided to them. You'd probably end up with a huge class divide, given no external incentive to work. It might be sort of ok at first, but you just know that the beast will need feeding more and more. The basic stipend needs to keep growing, so those working to create the new technologies etc will have to keep the world moving whilst the dolists just lounge about and fester more and more. Won't take much for some future-Farage to rile them up and overthrow whoever is managing to keep a lid on it all. We'd have to go to war, to feed a bunch of ill-trained conscripts into the grinder and reduce the issue, and simultaneously capture future productivity from another nation. That's assuming we could even win with our broken system.

I might have taken this a bit too far.

Only a bit though, that’s what I fear, a world where a majority of people are dependent on the benevolence of those who (to go a bit Marxist for a second) own the means of production.

When you got wealth concentrated in a few hands in the past, that wealth would generally (despite its faults) build public libraries or beautify the city their HQ was in. There would be genuine philanthropy. Bill Gates is a modern example of a flawed individual, but one who’s genuinely worked to try and improve the human lot.

I look at characters like Musk and Bezos with their spacecraft displaying varying degrees of phallic resemblance, and there’s nothing there, they just want to own everything.

Having a huge percentage of the human race dependent on the benevolence or whims of characters like Musk (a brilliant scientist, a deeply flawed person) terrifies me, and yet there seems to be no forward planning or thought about what a society looks like when human labour becomes divorced from human achievement. I wish there were more conversations about this taking place in the open.

 

[chickens]

Really, you feel guilty for having your own children ! Are they having a miserable life, do they feel your guilt ?

They seem happy, I try to strike the balance between allowing them to be kids, and preparing them for the realities of adulthood. Once they hit their teenage years (my eldest) their peer group has a greater prominence than their parents anyway.

All parents are (by and large) simply doing their best in an imperfect world. I talk with them when they want to talk, but my eldest is now at a point where I’m not expecting them to listen to anything I have to say until their mid-twenties. I remember being exactly the same with my own parents.

Some parts of life you have to work out for yourself, all parents can do is be there if called upon.

 

[FatSuperman]

Only a bit though, that’s what I fear, a world where a majority of people are dependent on the benevolence of those who (to go a bit Marxist for a second) own the means of production.

When you got wealth concentrated in a few hands in the past, that wealth would generally (despite its faults) build public libraries or beautify the city their HQ was in. There would be genuine philanthropy. Bill Gates is a modern example of a flawed individual, but one who’s genuinely worked to try and improve the human lot.

I look at characters like Musk and Bezos with their spacecraft displaying varying degrees of phallic resemblance, and there’s nothing there, they just want to own everything.

Having a huge percentage of the human race dependent on the benevolence or whims of characters like Musk (a brilliant scientist, a deeply flawed person) terrifies me, and yet there seems to be no forward planning or thought about what a society looks like when human labour becomes divorced from human achievement. I wish there were more conversations about this taking place in the open.

I feel you are correct. You don't look around nowadays and see the rich pursuing arts, science, learning and progressing society. You see them buying yachts, fleets of supercars and generally acting like dicks.

 

[FatSuperman]

this is o e of my favourite topics

the work of Hans Rosling shows that “religion / culture“ has nothing to do with fertility rates, instead it is related to wealth: (gapminder is one of the greatest hidden gems on the internet)

Gapminder Tools

Animated global statistics that everyone can understand

www.gapminder.org

The work of Peter Zehan who interprets data, shows how demographics affects economics. (Unlike Japan, China is getting old before it gets rich)


I also attended a one day workshop with this man Graeme Codrington, (probably the best days training I’ve ever had). where we talked about strategy and how to correlate the trends for the future (TIDES - Technology, institutional change, demographic, environment, social), fascinating link of the new revolution that is occurring. We did even end up debate/discuss (he didn’t suggest it - conversation just led there) that compulsory euthanasia may be required.


in the book, “why the Germans do it better” by John Kampfner the reasoning behind Andrea Merkel allowance to increase Turkish immigration was German is aging faster than those European nations that had colonies and thus needed to start to replace the work force (correlated knock on effect is the rise of the AfD)

Will check these out!

If you like strategy, have you followed any of Simon Wardley's thinking?

 

[Pretty Plnk Fairy]

What you need to increase the berth rate is to set up a tour for the one man love machine that is GUPPY SAUNDERS. A few of his legendery chat up lines will have the ladies frothing at the bunghole and he’ll have them up the duffy in a maximum of 20 seconds. Hes never had any complaints about his in the sack skillz though this may be linked to him paying for the hour and finishing within the minute, and few of them spoking english

 

[DJ NOBO]

And I'm saying I am uncomfortable with the idea of creating a life that I know will suffer pain and fear.

Another way to look at it is, if you had a kid the last thing you’d ever want to have done is to have denied them…..life.
Anyway if you can get beyond all that existential stuff, you’d probably make a great parent as you’ve properly thought it through.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

And I'm saying I am uncomfortable with the idea of creating a life that I know will suffer pain and fear.

Tell them to just switch off when we go 2 up.

 

[Creaky]

Don't think the boomers get it, do they.

Average first time buyer age is 34 now... and that's more likely to be a flat unsuitable for raising a family.

Then there's the cost of child care - the options are either the prospective mum leaving her job, or lose half your salary on child care.

Young people just can't afford kids... and it's a very concerning issue.

One factor that is often ignored yet does have an economic outcome is the age at which couples marry or commence a long term commitment.

In 1970 on average men married at 28 and women at 25.

By 2023 that had risen to 35 and 33 respectively.

This no doubt has an effect on the birth rate and savings.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

To be fair some of that is cultural. For Muslims getting married and having kids is seen as an obligatory part of life not a choice.

Was the same for Christians when they were poor.

The middle class Muslims I work with have typical (small) families.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

......................and ultimately the demographics of who is breeding and who isn't will have knock on effects on the future of the planet.

It's the bastards with the nuclear weapons and no regard for international co-operation I worry about.

 

[Doonhamer7]

Was the same for Christians when they were poor.

The middle class Muslims I work with have typical (small) families.

Agree, If you see the link I sent to gapminder it shows the Muslim nations (as they get wealthier - Bangladesh Is about 2.5kids per woman, Indonesia is about the same, India (Hindi/muslim before comment comes in) is even lower) are heading the same way as the Western nations, sub-Saharan Africa is where it is still 6 kids per women but as women are educated and move away from subsistence farming the less children they have. generally the “middle class” (in whatever religious society) don’t have lots of kids. My ‘subsistence farming’ great grandparents had 12 kids (4 died at child birth), grandparents about 4 kids, my parents had 3kids, we’ve 2kids, I’m not sure we’ll even get 2 grandkids.

We are all using our blinkered view on life and it’s not our fault:

 

[Gwylan]

Will check these out!

If you like strategy, have you followed any of Simon Wardley's thinking?

Simon's a great character - never seen one of his presentations that wasn't enlightening and humorous. He's not the first person that comes to mind when it comes to fertility rates though but he's a whizz on business strategy.

 

[marcos3263]

I am fascinated by this subject generally and cant believe we are worried about world population when it is still growing exponentially.
I suppose "we" are more worried about races, religions and colour changing as certain populations plummet while others are still growing.
but there are too many humans on the planet. it that starts to drop off it wont be a bad thing.
I would rather a drop in births than a sudden mass increase in deaths.......