Falmer(Amex)

[Addiseagull]

The 7000 figure is not correct. Capacity is close to 9000 at Withdean & just over 8000 home fans.

Football fans every where are generally over optimistic. For instance on polls for NSC at the start of the season, most folk expect the Albion to finish higher up the league than they do. Polls as to how many points we will get in the next week/month etc are over optimistic by most in the points tally & the game by game predictor poll always have more votes for an Albion win than a defeat. The heart over ruling the head.

Our supporters are no different to any others. Otherwise we would all support one of the big 4 clubs.

As for the Albions crowd against Hartlepool on a wet & windy Tuesday evening in November in three years from now, if we are still in league 1 - I stand by the sub 9,000 crowd.

Well thanks for your positive outlook. Can we all move on now?

 

[The Great Cornholio]

Well thanks for your positive outlook. Can we all move on now?

You are wasting your breath. Confront him with empirical evidence and you won't get a reply.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

In all seriousness though. The biggest increase as shown in the earlier figures is Swansea (66%) when moving from one stadium to another. This would put us on the 10-11K mark as an average.

Whilst we have some unique circumstances, what makes everyone so confident we can match or do better than that when you factor in they had also been promoted?

 

[Steve Foster]

You are wasting your breath. Confront him with empirical evidence and you won't get a reply.

The empirical evidence from Piggles FACTS fully support my case.

And your evidence.......

 

[BRIGHT ON Q]

I will give you two classic examples, this morning a guy who I work with told me how his neighbour was looking to his young children to a football match for the first time on Saturday, they chose Portsmouth because they weren't sure they would get a ticket at Withdean and had heard it was a crap game.

If we were at Falmer they would have been coming along.
Another guy I no, who is a Man Utd fan, now has a son and wants to take him to the local league club. He plans to buy two season tickets, despite having never been to the seagulls. I also know at least a dozen people who occasionally went to games at the Goldstone but have never been to Withdean

Multiply that by thousands across the county and we will be averaging 15k week in week out I believe.

Oh and by the way the guy that went to Pompey said it was crap and won't be going again!!!

I was working at a guys house in Burgess Hill a while back and he was an avid Middlesbrough fan which was where he was from.He had a young son and reckons he will be going to Falmer!

 

[Albion Dan]

In all seriousness though. The biggest increase as shown in the earlier figures is Swansea (66%) when moving from one stadium to another. This would put us on the 10-11K mark as an average.

Whilst we have some unique circumstances, what makes everyone so confident we can match or do better than that when you factor in they had also been promoted?

Because they had a relatively decent stadium already before the move, whereas our ground is utter shithouse and has been there for 10 years, and responsible for thousands of fans to give up on the home football experience.

Falmer is creating an incredible buzz amongst all sussex football fans, even those that dont follow the Albion, and everyone will want to have a look. Dads will actually take their kids in the confidence that they might enjoy the day not be stuck miles from the pitch and get pissed on with rain.

 

[Sheebo]

Our gates have been unexpectedly good at times (early 70s before the glory years) and unexpectedly bad at times (the crowds in 1990/1 were APPALLING).

So certainly there has been a lot of variance in our attendances, but maybe fickle isn't the right word to explain this.

It probably depends on what you call a 'fan' IMO...

 

[Napper]

In all seriousness though. The biggest increase as shown in the earlier figures is Swansea (66%) when moving from one stadium to another. This would put us on the 10-11K mark as an average.

Whilst we have some unique circumstances, what makes everyone so confident we can match or do better than that when you factor in they had also been promoted?

I think there is something in this. Albion fans are fickle but do have a core.
I certainly wouldnt be majorly suprised at this but isnt the break even 13k ?

 

[jezzer]

I hope and believe the first season should be packed out with all the curious fairweathers filling up most if not all available seats and the 15K+ season tickets selling out. Then long term its entirely down to whats happening on the pitch, I dont think from a home supporters perspective it matters greatly what div we are in, just what players weve got, how we are playing and most of all that we are winning most our home games. If we are not, after one bad season the fairweather and 1st time sth`s will not renew in droves.

It think it matters more we are in the championship from an attendance point of view for the away fans and the suggestion by some on here that the away end will be greatly increased even if we are playing MK dons etc is in my opinion rubbish, the away attendances have always been poor from so many clubs that should do so much better, look at leyton orient they dont even sell theirs out at withers and i dont believe its just cos of the ground. They`ll still be shit attendances in the away end at falmer for league 1 clubs, especially after the first season or so, unless we are in the championship, then its different.

 

[The Great Cornholio]

The empirical evidence from Piggles FACTS fully support my case.

And your evidence.......

How can they be FACTS when they relate to different clubs in different circumstances? The ONLY way your 9000 figure can be achieved long term is for the average of your beloved FACTS to be applied to Brighton. The average of your FACTS is a 33% increase which equates to an average of 8600. Do you seriously believe that comparing the move from Withdean to Falmer to the move from say Highfield Road to the Ricoh is an accurate comparison? Bearing in mind their average attendance at Highfield Road was around 2 and a half times the average at Withdean.

Let me give you FACTS as you seem to have ignored one of them I have already posted. It is a FACT that 1700 1901 tickets have been sold. It is a FACT that 30% of these have gone to current Season Ticket Holders. Meaning 70% have gone to businesses. Which equates to 1190 extra seats sold compared to Withdean before Season Tickets have even gone on sale. It is a FACT that the club expect to sell around 14-15000 Season Tickets. This is an estimation based on their research which, if I am not very much mistaken, amounts to a FACT.

This is actual data and actual FACTS based on Brighton and Hove Albion, not revisionist manipulation of data from non related football clubs in order to suit your own purpose.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Because they had a relatively decent stadium already before the move, whereas our ground is utter shithouse and has been there for 10 years, and responsible for thousands of fans to give up on the home football experience.

Falmer is creating an incredible buzz amongst all sussex football fans, even those that dont follow the Albion, and everyone will want to have a look. Dads will actually take their kids in the confidence that they might enjoy the day not be stuck miles from the pitch and get pissed on with rain.

I take the point that we have all had enough of Withdean and I posted something similar the other day. No roof, parking etc etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole the better.

I hope I'm wrong but a doubling of the average crowds does seem unlikely having scanned the stats which do not prove anything but just gives us an indication of what we might expect. That said, we all know lapsed Goldstone / Withdean regulars. It's whether or not we can tempt them back or not regularly as well as the lost generation from the end of the Goldstone years.

 

[The Great Cornholio]

I take the point that we have all had enough of Withdean and I posted something similar the other day. No roof, parking etc etc. The sooner we are out of that shithole the better.

I hope I'm wrong but a doubling of the average crowds does seem unlikely having scanned the stats which do not prove anything but just gives us an indication of what we might expect. That said, we all know lapsed Goldstone / Withdean regulars. It's whether or not we can tempt them back or not regularly as well as the lost generation from the end of the Goldstone years.

No-one knows for sure but you can guarantee that the club have the best idea. They are the ones with the database of current supporters. It is wrong to assume that the same 6000 people turn up at Withdean every home game. Around 1500-2000 of them are not Season Ticket Holders either meaning they are very stupid and pay full whack for every game or, much more likely, they pick and choose their games. Some of these will be based on budget. Others will be based on opposition. And most of the latter will not come regularly because of the facilities. They will endure Withdean to watch Leeds but not to watch Rochdale.

There is also very little passing trade from non supporters thanks to Withdean. I have spoken to several people not originally from Brighton but who now live in the area who are expressing an interest at coming to watch the odd game at Falmer.

Your stats are an indication of the bare minimum that we can expect. But how many of the old grounds quoted had all of the following to contend with: Exposure to the elements, distance from the pitch resulting in poor views from many stands, reliance on market style burger vans serving substandard burgers, 1 mile exclusion zone on parking, Corporate Hospitality in Portakbins, limited period of time in which music can be played and then inaudible to most anyway, distance between home and away fans ruining any atmosphere, etc., etc., etc.

Elm Park was a dump but was a purpose built football stadium with more accomodation under cover, local parking and no restrictions on entertainment. So you can take the Reading model and then probably add a few thousand that currently stay away because of other factors.

 

[Steve Foster]

How can they be FACTS when they relate to different clubs in different circumstances? The ONLY way your 9000 figure can be achieved long term is for the average of your beloved FACTS to be applied to Brighton. The average of your FACTS is a 33% increase which equates to an average of 8600. Do you seriously believe that comparing the move from Withdean to Falmer to the move from say Highfield Road to the Ricoh is an accurate comparison? Bearing in mind their average attendance at Highfield Road was around 2 and a half times the average at Withdean.

Let me give you FACTS as you seem to have ignored one of them I have already posted. It is a FACT that 1700 1901 tickets have been sold. It is a FACT that 30% of these have gone to current Season Ticket Holders. Meaning 70% have gone to businesses. Which equates to 1190 extra seats sold compared to Withdean before Season Tickets have even gone on sale. It is a FACT that the club expect to sell around 14-15000 Season Tickets. This is an estimation based on their research which, if I am not very much mistaken, amounts to a FACT.

This is actual data and actual FACTS based on Brighton and Hove Albion, not revisionist manipulation of data from non related football clubs in order to suit your own purpose.[/QUOT

You are not reading my post properly so I will reiterate again.

IF BHA are still in League 1 in say November 2013 & playing a poxy team one evening who bring 100 to the Amex & IF we are languishing in mid table do you really think that more than 12,000 will turn up?
Come on. 8000-9000 at best.

 

[The Great Cornholio]

How can they be FACTS when they relate to different clubs in different circumstances? The ONLY way your 9000 figure can be achieved long term is for the average of your beloved FACTS to be applied to Brighton. The average of your FACTS is a 33% increase which equates to an average of 8600. Do you seriously believe that comparing the move from Withdean to Falmer to the move from say Highfield Road to the Ricoh is an accurate comparison? Bearing in mind their average attendance at Highfield Road was around 2 and a half times the average at Withdean.

Let me give you FACTS as you seem to have ignored one of them I have already posted. It is a FACT that 1700 1901 tickets have been sold. It is a FACT that 30% of these have gone to current Season Ticket Holders. Meaning 70% have gone to businesses. Which equates to 1190 extra seats sold compared to Withdean before Season Tickets have even gone on sale. It is a FACT that the club expect to sell around 14-15000 Season Tickets. This is an estimation based on their research which, if I am not very much mistaken, amounts to a FACT.

This is actual data and actual FACTS based on Brighton and Hove Albion, not revisionist manipulation of data from non related football clubs in order to suit your own purpose.[/QUOT

You are not reading my post properly so I will reiterate again.

IF BHA are still in League 1 in say November 2013 & playing a poxy team one evening who bring 100 to the Amex & IF we are languishing in mid table do you really think that more than 12,000 will turn up?
Come on. 8000-9000 at best.

I am reading your post perfectly well thank you. And I couldn't disagree with you more. You have said there will be an average crowd of 10000. I have given plenty of reasons, including your beloved FACTS, why I believe you are completely and utterly wrong. I would say that Huddersfield Town are the most analagous team compared to us. Last season, they averaged 14600 with a lowest attendance of 11269. Those are the levels of support I would envisage Falmer settling down at and it would appear that the club's business plan would agree with me.

I have argued the case with you several times now, presenting facts, reasoning and conjecture. Are you going to come back with something other than "Come On"?

 

[Deleted member 2719]

From the most reliable of sources, the Oldham evening cronicle. This is the increase in attendences from old to new grounds.

Average attendances, old and new

Cardiff City — Ninian Park, 2008-09 (Championship): 18,044; Cardiff City Stadium, 2009-10 so far (Championship): 21,056.

Relocation distance: 0.6 miles

Increase: 16.7-per-cent

Colchester United — Layer Road, 2007-08 (Championship): 5,509; Weston Homes Community Stadium, 2008-09 (League One): 5,084.

Relocation distance: 6.7 miles

Fall: 7.7-per-cent



Coventry City — Highfield Road, 2004-05 (Championship): 16,048; Ricoh Arena, 2005-06 (Championship): 21,302.

Relocation distance: 3 miles

Increase: 31.1-per-cent

Darlington — Feethams, 2002-03 (League Two): 3,312; Darlington Arena, 2003-04 (League Two): 5,023.

Relocation distance: 1.1 miles

Increase: 51.7-per-cent



Doncaster Rovers * — Belle Vue, 2005-06 (League One): 6,139; Keepmoat Stadium, 2006-07 (League One): 7,746.

Relocation distance: 2.9 miles

Increase: 26.2-per-cent

Hull City ** — Boothferry Park, 2002-03 (League Two): 12,843; KC Stadium, 2003-04 (League Two): 16,847.

Relocation distance: 2 miles

Increase: 31.2-per-cent



Leicester City *** — Filbert Street, 2001-02 (Premier League): 19,835; Walkers Stadium, 2002-03 (Championship): 29,219.

Relocation distance: 0.1 miles

Increase: 47.3-per-cent



Shrewsbury Town — Gay Meadow, 2006-07 (League Two): 4,730; Prostar Stadium, 2007-08 (League Two): 5,659.

Relocation distance: 1.8 miles

Increase: 19.6-per-cent



Swansea City — Vetch Field, 2004-05 (League Two): 8,458; Liberty Stadium, 2005-06 (League One): 14,112.

Relocation distance: 3.1 miles

Increase: 66.8-per-cent


* Doncaster moved to the Keepmoat in the latter half of the 2006-07 season.

** Hull City moved to the KC Stadium halfway through the 2002-03 season.

*** Leicester played their first game of the 2002-03 season at Filbert Street.


MK DONS are counted as a new club and therefore not included in the comparison.

Current League One club Southampton opened their new St Mary's stadium in the Premier League and are also therefore left out, while Burton Albion did so while in the Conference and are also excluded.

Interesting Stats IP not sure if anyone has already asked but all the figures give the "Honeymoon Figures" do you have the more stable figures after a few seasons?

 

[wigman]

I would not call our fans fickle at all,to average around 6.5k this season at a cost of £25 a game sitting in the pouring rain on a seat covered in Green slime half a mile from the pitch is good support imo.
There will be no problem with attendances at Falmer,i for one know loads of people who refuse to go to Withdean but will be attending the Holy Shrine.

 

[Worthai Seagull]

I am getting a season ticket at The Amex and so is at least one of my mates. We have only been to a handful of away games in the last couple of years and not to the Withdean once last season. We used to go to The Goldstone, Gillingham blah nlah blah and we cant wait to fall in love with football again....i am sure there is thousands like us! (bad fans)

Well done and congratulations.....thanks for all your 'proper' support for the club when it was really needed.
If you were a real supporter of this wonderful football club, then you should have done what (approx)6,000 of us have done for the last few years.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I would not call our fans fickle at all,to average around 6.5k this season at a cost of £25 a game sitting in the pouring rain on a seat covered in Green slime half a mile from the pitch is good support imo.
There will be no problem with attendances at Falmer,i for one know loads of people who refuse to go to Withdean but will be attending the Holy Shrine.

I know what your saying Wigman although i am a half full man (pints that is!) i know of alot of people who will talk the talk but will they actually walk the walk.

Yes they all turned out for Cardiff but there were many there that turned up who will only put the occasional visit in and many who turned up for a day out and quite a few who turned out because there football season had finished.

I really hope we can sustain big crowds but i feel pricing is crucial starting from £15 sounds a fair price to the modern working man with family demands.

 

[The Great Cornholio]

Well done and congratulations.....thanks for all your 'proper' support for the club when it was really needed.
If you were a real supporter of this wonderful football club, then you should have done what (approx)6,000 of us have done for the last few years.

Well done - when is your Knighthood? Before or after your canonisation? Can I have a signed photo please? In fact, make it 16000 so we can stick them on all of the unused seats at Falmer when we only allow "deserving" fans in.

 

[wigman]

I know what your saying Wigman although i am a half full man (pints that is!) i know of alot of people who will talk the talk but will they actually walk the walk.

Yes they all turned out for Cardiff but there were many there that turned up who will only put the occasional visit in and many who turned up for a day out and quite a few who turned out because there football season had finished.

I really hope we can sustain big crowds but i feel pricing is crucial starting from £15 sounds a fair price to the modern working man with family demands.

The fans are out there MB but the trouble has been the Withdean and its facillities.The Amex will be 1st class and they should all come flocking back but along with pricing,success on the park is equally if not more important.
We will get very,very good attendances next season but we need the product to keep them attending.