I suspect it's a little different this year. Apart from anything else, the 2021 tyres have altered how the front end behaves (more prone to understeer), and at the back the changes to the car floor has also had an impact. Add to that that this season had the shortest pre-season testing ever for F1, and you're suddenly asking those drivers to learn their cars over the race weekend. You can see it with all the drivers who've changed teams for this season, to varying extent:
- Ricciardo is really struggling to get on top of the peculiarities of the McLaren.
- Perez hasn't yet nailed the Red Bull, in particular in Qually (his race pace hasn't been as bad).
- Vettel at Aston has struggled to impress against Stroll with exception of Monaco.
- Can add Alonso to the mix, he's clearly taken time to get to grips with the Alpine.
- Sainz at Ferrari has probably done the best of this group, but even he's generally not been as quick as expected with the exception of Monaco where he really impressed.
- Hard to say with the Haas boys as their both new, but given the number of spins and crashes it's probably fair to assume they're struggling to get on top of the car.
So back to the Perez / Russell comparison: last year - Russell was jumping out of a car that was pretty rubbish and into the WCC car, a car known to be without too many "diva" characteristics. His benchmark was Bottas (as opposed to Verstappen), and you could see a clear progression through the weekend with Russel starting out struggling to adapt and then gradually coming into it. By the end of Q3 he was there-ish with Bottas. On race day he nailed the start and proceeded to put Bottas in the shade without dominating him the way Hamilton normally does. But even after the race, Russell still talked about how he wasn't yet fully at home in the car: in particular on the entry to turn 1, but at various other points on the circuit as well he felt he had more time to make and he'd only achieve that with more time in the car.
However ... I do agree that Russell looks to me to be the real deal. He's a better driver than Perez, and definitely better than Bottas. Jury out on whether he can mix it with Hamilton and Verstappen if given the chance.
Also remains to be seen how all of the drivers adapt to the new cars next season. I suspect there's going to be a big shake up with more shocks along the lines of Ricciardo's struggles with the Mclaren.
Some very good analysis there. The only part I'd pick up on is the "Haas boys". Personally, I wouldn't have Mazepin in charge of a go kart - but then I don't need his family's money.