[Albion] 'Enough with the data obsession, in the real world only goals for and against count'

[Swansman]

Call me Mr Tyranasaurus Rex

Mr Tyranasaurus Rex

 

[Eric Youngs Contact Lens]

Call me Mr Tyranasaurus Rex, but I completely fail to see what stats actually tell you that you can't tell, just by watching the game.

Our strikers, are under performing their XG? Oh really?
Ryan was having a poor season. Wow, really useful this

I can sort of see the use in a scouting sense. Ie if you're scouting 1000 defenders, it's easier to look at percentage headers won on a spreadsheet that it is to watch 1000 games, but when you actually have the players at the club, can anyone give me an example of some insight that a statistic could give you that you COULDN'T get just by watching the game?

But isn't it better to have a strong sense of both.. yes, may back up what you think you have seen but may also challenge what you thought you had seen or how you interpreted it and of course vice versa? The other use is for consistency and/or small percentages for improvement that might be useful for individual coaching discussions. Small changes in specific stats might indicate a specific issue for a player ; one who has stopped shooting to get another pass in - might not be that he has been told to overplay, but might be a signal of a confidence issue, scared of missing. Or one that shoots all the time, is struggling with confidence too - scared for his place in the team and too desperate for a goal. As always, the stats themselves capture a moment in time, or a summary of lots of little moments. How you use them and what you use them for is the real skill for any coaching scenario. I suspect much of Xg etc is captured to help/promote sports betting.. where relatively small margins might make a big difference. Doesn't mean that they are used in a one-dimensional way for GP and any other coach. Using lots of different stats to help hone the focus for improvement towards the end result.
Interestingly, I dont think GP has ever quoted stats to defend his team. He uses the word "performances" "Moments" "More in X area of the pitch". On the contrary, he always concludes with "we didnt get the points we needed or felt we desreved". he doesnt focus or dwell on the things he and the team cant control - 100% focused on the things within their control. Stats will help them decide what to focus on and how much.

 

[dangull]

I don't care about how many people are banging on about only 1 home win and terrible strikers, it has been a very frustrating and unlucky season, but the team is playing in the right way and looking like a premier league side rather than a championship side looking to defend most of the time and nick something on the break.
Things can change quite quickly in football, as has happened in Scotland where Rangers have been miles behind Celtic in recent seasons but have turned it around.
I wouldn't be surprised if a top 10 finish happens for Brighton next season as long as the 8/1 odds of staying up this time are correct.

 

[Stato]

3 classic Hughtonesgue performances and one classic potterball performance.

We had more shots than both Spurs and Liverpool and equalled Leeds' shot count at their ground: 36 shots over the three games. Hard to describe that as Hughtonesque. Love him as we do, he wasn't renowned for his teams having a lot of shots in Premier League games, particularly away from home against tough opponents.

 

[dazzer6666]

Call me Mr Tyranasaurus Rex, but I completely fail to see what stats actually tell you that you can't tell, just by watching the game.

Our strikers, are under performing their XG? Oh really?
Ryan was having a poor season. Wow, really useful this

I can sort of see the use in a scouting sense. Ie if you're scouting 1000 defenders, it's easier to look at percentage headers won on a spreadsheet that it is to watch 1000 games, but when you actually have the players at the club, can anyone give me an example of some insight that a statistic could give you that you COULDN'T get just by watching the game?

Random examples.......there are dozens......

-runs off the ball (you were watching the game, but not the players making runs that weren't on/near the ball)
-trends over time.....collated data on any number of things over many games you simply wouldn't be able to track mentally. Is a player/team getting worse at certain aspects ? Better ?
-player A is 5-10% off the distance he normally covers or his acceleration is down. Imperceptible when watching but..............

I think the problem is that some are becoming slaves to that stats, rather than using them as a useful, but limited, source of info. To be fair it doesn't sound like Potter is one of them. We're the absolute extreme example in the PL now of the stats bearing out precisely what we can all see (so I understand where you're coming from with your question) - in many cases it's far less obvious though.

 

[vagabond]

With the amount of simpletons demanding Potter gets the sack and we bring Big Sam in ourselves, I would say that any metric possible is needed to educate these people.

[emoji122][emoji122][emoji122]

 

[vagabond]

3 classic Hughtonesgue performances and one classic potterball performance.

Lol, there was nothing “Hughtonesque” about the way we flooded the oppositions goal at Anfield. And our goal was equisite and built up from our own half beautifully.

 

[raymondo]

So in our first season when we did quite well, we scored 21 goals in our first 26 games, 5 less than this season. Last season under Potter we'd scored 31 at 26 games played, 10 more than our first season in the division.

Under Potter we've scored 65 goals in 64 games that's led to 67 pts. For the previous 2 seasons we scored 69 goals in 76 games which gave us 74 pts. Baring in mind 1 player got 25 of those 69 goals (36%).

Now, what I would put to you is if we had a player like Murray was 2017-19, with the tactics we are now playing, with the increased chances we are creating, with the space he'd make for others, we'd be on 35+ goals for this season because I feel almost certain a striker with a real nose for goal would be on 12+ for us by now, and we'd be sat on 30+ pts because we'd have got a draw and a win out of the last 2, and likely have beaten Fulham or Villa or both.

I agree with you. We desperately need one or two players with a 'nose for the goal' rather than the 'let's think our way through this' approach. Don't get me wrong - I'm 'Potter In' and I like the new style, but the balance seems wrong at the mo: too much thinking, not enough 'nose' as you say.

 

[Curryisgreat]

We all thought absolutely dominating your local rivals for 90 minutes, conceding just two penalty box touches and yet two goals - one in the final minute of injury time to condemn us to defeat - was absolutely PEAK Brighton & Hove Albion for 2020/21. And then along came Saturday which was frankly just jaw dropping. So yes, I'd say even though the Palace game was absurd, Saturday really was somehow, inexplicably, even worse.

In fact, enough already. Just thinking about Saturday makes me so angry at our appalling SHITHOUSE "forwards". They are just toss. F**k off the lot of you, and when you get there f*ck off some more. Yes, you Connolly. I don't care that you're 21 or whatever. You're confident enough to wear that stupid haircut. Just f*ck off to Rotherham. And you "Welbz". Sorry, another lovely guy I'm sure, but you are absolutely crap. I knew you would be. You, Ali J, are also crap. At least your overhead kick against Chelsea went in - we'll be able to repeat that on your highlight montage so that we can get it up to 30 seconds. Good job as we'll have leave off your pathetic header against 10-man Sheff Utd when my 10 year old would have nodded it in. I'll stop now, there are others. You f**king know who you are.

I don’t actually agree with you but I LOVE this post!

Well played Sir!

 

[Guinness Boy]

How many kids have you worked with who went on to play professional football?

Fair enough.

I bet the contents of your wallet that when Neal Maupay comes off the pitch he does NOT ask Potter "hey boss, what was my xGf?"

 

[Deleted member 2719]

Oh no, how will I cope?

But seriously, I'm just delighted that you've graduated from village idiot to being able to form an opinion without reading what to think in the Daily Mail beforehand. So very well done for that. (I'd pat you on the head patronisingly at this point, if I could)

From one post to the next you choose to abuse.


Firstly most of the squad then me, class act, you must be a Guardian/Mirror reader.

Are you a Roy Greenslade fan by chance?

Perhaps if you want to abuse someone he could head the list?

 

[smeariestbat]

We all thought absolutely dominating your local rivals for 90 minutes, conceding just two penalty box touches and yet two goals - one in the final minute of injury time to condemn us to defeat - was absolutely PEAK Brighton & Hove Albion for 2020/21. And then along came Saturday which was frankly just jaw dropping. So yes, I'd say even though the Palace game was absurd, Saturday really was somehow, inexplicably, even worse.

In fact, enough already. Just thinking about Saturday makes me so angry at our appalling SHITHOUSE "forwards". They are just toss. F**k off the lot of you, and when you get there f*ck off some more. Yes, you Connolly. I don't care that you're 21 or whatever. You're confident enough to wear that stupid haircut. Just f*ck off to Rotherham. And you "Welbz". Sorry, another lovely guy I'm sure, but you are absolutely crap. I knew you would be. You, Ali J, are also crap. At least your overhead kick against Chelsea went in - we'll be able to repeat that on your highlight montage so that we can get it up to 30 seconds. Good job as we'll have leave off your pathetic header against 10-man Sheff Utd when my 10 year old would have nodded it in. I'll stop now, there are others. You f**king know who you are.

This really is an absolutely top class rant. 10/10

 

[Lindfield by the Pond]

There is expected goals, and Brighton Expected goals. Two different statistical models. We all know the sitter from 2 yards out with the goal keeper having a nap by the corner flag, has a BxG of 0.01. That's what Brighton fans expect.

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

Fair enough.

I bet the contents of your wallet that when Neal Maupay comes off the pitch he does NOT ask Potter "hey boss, what was my xGf?"

Of course he won't but he will be given his stats throughout the week/month.

 

[Weststander]

As a fully paid up member of the data nerd society, I love stats. Its also the secret of Tony Bloom's success so should really be embraced by all Albion fans.

That said, our analytics team must be scratching their heads when trying to deciphier our numbers.

It seems our possession stats are all counter intuitive.

<50% possession in 10 games
4 wins
3 draws
3 losses
Average points per game 1.5
Average shots per game 11
Average Goals per game 0.8

>50% possession in 16 games
1 wins
8 draws
7 losses
Average points per game 0.69
Average shots per game 15
Average Goals per game 1.12

>60% possession in 4 games
0 wins
2 draws
2 losses
Average points per game 0.5
Average shots per game 20
Average Goals per game 0.75

So in games when we have the least possession and the fewest shots we earn the greatest number of points.

But the one factor that makes sense of the numbers is that all the other teams, outside the tradition top six, have a Goals per shot average of 0.09 or roughly a goal every 11 shots.

Brightons Goals per shot average is 0.06, which equates to a goal every 16 shots.

The really worrying thing about that stat is that we have only manged 16 shots in 8 matches out of 26 this season.

Thankfully, for all of Graham Potter's talk of not wanting new signings and wanting to develop the players he has, (presumably bullshit aimed at not damaging our strikers already low confidence) you can be sure that behind the scenes Tony Bloom and his army of data nerds will be scouring the planet for our next undervalued star striker.

A genuinely meant question. Enjoying stats, would you happen to have the goals per shot stat average this season for the other 19 clubs?

Interested to see how the numbers compare.

 

[beorhthelm]

wondering if anyone trying to argue case for the stats, would not happily give up 10% possession for a goal?

 

[Weststander]

I’ve said it in another post, the stats bare out teams setting up like we’re ManCity - who themselves struggled to break down a solid looking WBA at the Etihad, their last dropped points! It is difficult to score against a team with no ambition themselves, hence it’s been a go to tactical model for some managers as you do fluke a win because the other team is committing so much forward looking to score.

Against the likes of Leeds, Spurs and Liverpool we played teams with equal or more ambition than us, therefore we could counter and all 3 goals in those games were quick counters from one end to the other. You can’t counter attack a team that’s not attacking.

We’ve found solutions to create a variety of chances, we have just got to start taking them.

Very good points.

Leeds, Spurs and Liverpool took us on in a pure football contest.

Hodgson and Allardyce set up to kill the game and try to nick a result.

Without the ££££ quality of ManC (and Liverpool of recent seasons), it’s incredibly hard to break down ten men with clear openings. I remember Carvalhal boasting about it post match when his doomed Swansea team beat Liverpool in January 2018 "I said to my players that Liverpool were a top team, they are really strong, but they are a Formula 1 car. If you put a Formula 1 car in London in traffic, the Formula 1 car will not run very fast," His ten man defence chiselled out a 1-0 win.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I bet they do and I would be extremely worried if they don't. Maybe not in such a facetious manner as you suggest though. You don't think they analyse their performances at all?

Of course we've got performance and stats analysis

Did you actually follow the thread?

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

A genuinely meant question. Enjoying stats, would you happen to have the goals per shot stat average this season for the other 19 clubs?

Interested to see how the numbers compare.

See 1st column

 

[Weststander]

See 1st columnView attachment 134422

Thank you very much .

To me, it’s no surprise that we’re in the worst grouping with SheffU, Burnley, Fulham and Burnley.

Whilst Stains (Ings), CP (Zaha, Eze and a revitalised Benteke), Villa and Everton (DCL) are markedly more clinical ..... regardless of their inferior xG. Hey presto, more wins, more points.

Just underlines yet again our one glaring weakness.