[Misc] Electric Cars

[chickens]

I am PCP’ing my ZS EV, because I know that in 4 years time there will have been a generational leap in battery capacity and charging speeds through solid state batteries and the gradual rollout of faster charging infrastructure that my MG isn’t built to take advantage of.

Purchasing a new EV outright would be to purchase a car with extremely high depreciation, because whereas combustion engine technology is as mature as it’s ever going to get, we’re at the beginning of the age of EVs. I find it genuinely quite exciting, but I think there’s probably already a consensus on here that I’m a bit odd.

 

[nicko31]

One of the problems in assessing depreciation is that we don't know how much the technology is going to improve. The more the tech improves, the greater the depreciation on the older cars. (On the other hand if some vital raw material is in short supply, then the older cars will depreciate much less.)

The tech is moving fast. I reckon leave the new purchases to the lease market, then pick up a heavily appreciated used vehicle 3-4 years if you can afford it. Get a popular model so there is a decent used spares market if anything £££ f**ks up

Been doing the same with ICE cars for 20 years, relatively cheap motoring. My Skoda dumped £25k in 3 years with 75k on it, then I bought it and its lost £8k in the next 6 years

 

[GOM]

Also depends on how quickly / slowly the general opinion / appetite for EVs shifts in wider society. Depreciation is closely linked to second hand demand, which for EVs is pretty low at the moment due to lingering suspicion in society around how well (or not) the battery lasts. There will come a point when those suspicions smooth away and demand for second hand EVs will pick up, that will drive higher prices on second hand EVs, and reduce depreciation on new models.

Gawd knows when it'll happen. We're going through a phase where demand for new EVs is still stronger than demand for second hand, and that may be exacerbated in coming years as the ICE ban on new cars approaches.

And, as mentioned, there's the new technology factor. We're still in the rapid R&D phase for EVs (similar to how personal computers were accelerating so fast in the 80's that a computer bought today would be obsolete within months), which means a lot of people aren't committing to long term ownership yet while they wait on new tech that's known to be coming (things like solid state batteries, viable home V2X, etc).

It is hard to ignore all the misinformation out there about second hand EV demand, it is actually way up over last year. Have a look at this for an independent view and facts and figures.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Also depends on how quickly / slowly the general opinion / appetite for EVs shifts in wider society. Depreciation is closely linked to second hand demand, which for EVs is pretty low at the moment due to lingering suspicion in society around how well (or not) the battery lasts. There will come a point when those suspicions smooth away and demand for second hand EVs will pick up, that will drive higher prices on second hand EVs, and reduce depreciation on new models.

Gawd knows when it'll happen. We're going through a phase where demand for new EVs is still stronger than demand for second hand, and that may be exacerbated in coming years as the ICE ban on new cars approaches.

Indeed.

Opinions on battery life (which should be comparable to ICE engine life at a minimum) are generally out of touch with facts.

These used Tesla’s are holding their value well despite a lot of miles on the clock:

 

[nicko31]

Seems Tesla sales in Europe are off a cliff in Europe since to aligned himself with Trump. The brand is rapidly turning toxic

https://insideevs.com/news/745119/tesla-sales-europe-2024/

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Seems Tesla sales in Europe are off a cliff in Europe since to aligned himself with Trump. The brand is rapidly turning toxic

https://insideevs.com/news/745119/tesla-sales-europe-2024/

That could be also partly explained by the fact there's been now new Teslas until recently when the new (revised) Model 3 came out. But yes, it's not looking great and I'm not surprised. The volume of Chinese manufacturers already here or on their way could make it a lot worse.

 

[nicko31]

That could be also partly explained by the fact there's been now new Teslas until recently when the new (revised) Model 3 came out. But yes, it's not looking great and I'm not surprised. The volume of Chinese manufacturers already here or on their way could make it a lot worse.

What I find staggering with the Tesla share price has risen 75% this year, the valuation is crazy. From 2025 we will see Chinese cars assembled in the EU and a year later factories will open in Turkey

Trump will try and protect the US market with tariffs but then there's Mexico where the likes of BYD have plans afoot.

 

[Audax]

Think Tesla's starting to feel the bite of increased competition as well. VW's ID range for a start. Tesla needs that "Model 2" entry level car they started talking about so they can compete lower down the market now there's strong competition.

Many, many years ago I wanted to go EV with a Model 3. It was out of my price range and I settled for a Prius. 4 years later, Model 3 was still out of my price range and I settled for a Zoe as my first EV. Another 4 years on and ... yup, when I reviewed what was available the price just didn't stack up (especially with Musk turning so toxic). VW ID3 meets all my needs and more at a cheaper price point and I'm exceedingly happy with it.

 

[Audax]

It is hard to ignore all the misinformation out there about second hand EV demand, it is actually way up over last year. Have a look at this for an independent view and facts and figures.

It's already turning, then. Which is good. Haven't watched the vid yet - does it go into the various layers of second hand? There's a difference between "educated second hand" vs others. Locally, I'm still mostly seeing new EV's appearing. The one stand-out example of second-hand buying I'm aware of (another parent at my son's school) is someone who knows his stuff when it comes to green tech and does his research before buying.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Think Tesla's starting to feel the bite of increased competition as well. VW's ID range for a start. Tesla needs that "Model 2" entry level car they started talking about so they can compete lower down the market now there's strong competition.

Many, many years ago I wanted to go EV with a Model 3. It was out of my price range and I settled for a Prius. 4 years later, Model 3 was still out of my price range and I settled for a Zoe as my first EV. Another 4 years on and ... yup, when I reviewed what was available the price just didn't stack up (especially with Musk turning so toxic). VW ID3 meets all my needs and more at a cheaper price point and I'm exceedingly happy with it.

I’d have one of these over a Tesla every time (not that I can afford one until they depreciate massively!):

 

[Audax]

I’d have one of these over a Tesla every time (not that I can afford one until they depreciate massively!):

Fancied up Hyundai

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I’d have one of these over a Tesla every time (not that I can afford one until they depreciate massively!):

I would have the vast majority of EVs over a Tesla every time (including GV60).