Electoral boundary changes

[severnside gull]

It would be a fantastic opportunity to apply the same demographic guidelines to Wales and Scotland reducing their participation in Westminster proportionately. As they have their own well established governments this would seem to be much fairer in every respect but I somehow feel that it is an opportunity that will pass the self-seeking lawmakers by.

 

[Notters]

It would be a fantastic opportunity to apply the same demographic guidelines to Wales and Scotland reducing their participation in Westminster proportionately. As they have their own well established governments this would seem to be much fairer in every respect but I somehow feel that it is an opportunity that will pass the self-seeking lawmakers by.

31 seats to go from England:

* South East England: 83 seats (-1)
* North West England: 68 (-7)
* London - 68 seats (-5)
* Eastern England: 56 seats (-2)
* Yorkshire and Humber: 50 seats (-4)
* West Midlands: 54 seats (-5)
* South West England: 53 seats (-2)
* East Midlands: 44 seats (-2)
* North East England: 26 seats (-3)

and 19 from elsewhere.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

So am I right that they are taking 4 seats, Lewes, Hove and Brighton x 2; and replacing with just 2?

 

[DT Withdean]

So am I right that they are taking 4 seats, Lewes, Hove and Brighton x 2; and replacing with just 2?

4 becomes 3 isn't it.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

4 becomes 3 isn't it.

Yeah, I misread. Surprises me though, I thought the problem was the southern seats had too many voters and the northern inner-city seats too few.

 

[The Large One]

So am I right that they are taking 4 seats, Lewes, Hove and Brighton x 2; and replacing with just 2?

Not really.

Take the combined area of what was Brighton Pavilion and Hove and give it a largely North/South split, rather than East/West at present. Most of Brighton Kemptown joins the western part of Lewes. Eastern Lewes (plus one or two other small bits) becomes Uckfield.

This is all to be consulted upon now and voted upon in Parliament in a couple of years time.

 

[Vegas Seagull]

lumping Lewes with Seaford and Uckfield (did i understand that correctly?) doesnt seem to be much of an issue, but Lewes and part of Brighton is pretty strange.[/QUOTE]

Maybe they should call it 'Falmer' & I know a place where they could put the voting booths, for a substantial fee

 

[8ace]

Labour 6/4 favs from 15/8 for next Election with Hills after Boundary reccs,Tories out to 7/4 from 11/8.

 

[e77]

Summary of West Sussex: Doesn't really matter in the main as the Conservatives always win here anyway except that one ward, Copthorne and Worth, will move from Horsham to Crawley. Not knowing Horsham, and assuming the voting here follows the general pattern in Horsham and is fairly Conservative, this presumably makes a Conservative win in Crawley more likely.

Also East Worthing and Shoreham might become Worthing East and Shoreham. Did they pay someone to think that up?

 

[DT Withdean]

The overall aim wasn't party political (believe it or not), but to

reduce 650 mps to 600

make it more fair between regions; as Wales, Scotland, NE and NW England had constituencies with far less voters than down South, giving a disproportionate number of MP's from those areas.

 

[beorhthelm]

The overall aim wasn't party political (believe it or not)

yeah, on the surface. but we all know where the northern urban seats go to, the changes are bound to favor Tories/Liberals over Labour. interesting bookies reaction above.

 

[Dunk]

I am really annoyed that Lewes, that has happily sat as a constituency with Newhaven, Peacehaven, Seaford and all the local villages nearby, is now going to have to be stuck onto Brighton just to make the numbers add up. The current Lewes constituency has the right number of people in it already! Come on Norman Baker, oppose these changes. Break the alliance if you have to.


Norman Baker does read NSC doesn't he?

 

[turienzo's lovechild]

Norman Baker does read NSC doesn't he?

if he does he must have WELL thick skin

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Does this mean Caroline Lucas is likely to lose her seat to the Tories at the next election based on the boundary changes ?

 

[Scampi]

Does this mean Caroline Lucas is likely to lose her seat to the Tories at the next election based on the boundary changes ?

No, because Hove Born Inbred will still be campaigning for the conservatives.

 

[queens park pete]

The Hove/Pavilion seat looks safer if anything for Caroline Lucas: if people vote as they did in the last council elections, her new constituency is currently represented by 20 Greens and 1 Tory councillor. Less marginal than before!
North Brighton looks like a gerrymandered attempt to create a safer Tory seat. Kemptown Lewes looks anyones bag, 50% of Baker's personal vote gone, an active Tory mp and plenty of potential Green supporters floating about. Add to that a less affluent area that ought to be solid Labour if Miliband gets his act together- too hard to call! And as for linking Uckfield and Newhaven, why was Newhaven not included with Brighton East. That really was a fix!

The last time boundaries for Brighton Council were changed, many thought it was going to be a Tory stitch up and leave Brighton blue forever. But the reverse was the case, huge Tory majorities in a few wards, and a Labour Council in Brighton for the first time in a 1000 years! Who can predict the vagaries of the voters?


Brighton Politics Blog

Plenty more views on this on the excellent Brighton Politics blog

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

No, because Hove Born Inbred will still be campaigning for the conservatives.

Timmy is going to be a lynchpin for the Conservatives publicity machine in the next election ......................................... stuffing leaflets through letterboxes.

 

[Weststander]

yeah, on the surface. but we all know where the northern urban seats go to, the changes are bound to favor Tories/Liberals over Labour. interesting bookies reaction above.

But if a lower number of labour & snp voters got one of theirs in as an mp, compared to other parties in higher populated southern england, that's not right.
Wales being the worst example, where 4.8% of UK population get 6.1% of mps. i.e. 9 out of 40 too many distorting their representation and influence, and reducing representation for southern england.

The changes address that.

Will have to go through parliament and no one party has a majority to carry, so will need the consensus of various viewpoints.

 

[Weststander]

I am really annoyed that Lewes, that has happily sat as a constituency with Newhaven, Peacehaven, Seaford and all the local villages nearby, is now going to have to be stuck onto Brighton just to make the numbers add up. The current Lewes constituency has the right number of people in it already! Come on Norman Baker, oppose these changes. Break the alliance if you have to.


Norman Baker does read NSC doesn't he?

The same N.Baker who is much criticised for nimbyism about anything new in his constituency, and fought tooth and nail against a stadium with negligable impact on his patch.

 

[The Large One]

The Hove/Pavilion seat looks safer if anything for Caroline Lucas: if people vote as they did in the last council elections, her new constituency is currently represented by 20 Greens and 1 Tory councillor. Less marginal than before!
North Brighton looks like a gerrymandered attempt to create a safer Tory seat. Kemptown Lewes looks anyones bag, 50% of Baker's personal vote gone, an active Tory mp and plenty of potential Green supporters floating about. Add to that a less affluent area that ought to be solid Labour if Miliband gets his act together- too hard to call! And as for linking Uckfield and Newhaven, why was Newhaven not included with Brighton East. That really was a fix!

The last time boundaries for Brighton Council were changed, many thought it was going to be a Tory stitch up and leave Brighton blue forever. But the reverse was the case, huge Tory majorities in a few wards, and a Labour Council in Brighton for the first time in a 1000 years! Who can predict the vagaries of the voters?


Brighton Politics Blog

Plenty more views on this on the excellent Brighton Politics blog

Assuming the boundary changes happen, I agree about this East Brighton & Lewes seat being up for grabs - between Labour, Tories and Greens. Why?

One, Norm is a busted flush. The LibDems lost Lewes DC, the LibDem vote is falling - it's nowhere in Brighton. The Moulsecoomb and Bevendean seats are solidly Labour. The Greens have votes everywhere, even if not being the biggest in any given area, plus their influence is growing in Lewes itself. The Tories fill in the rest of the gaps. My guess is - if the election were now, that seat would turn Blue. Just. In four years' time? Who knows?

Again if the election were now, Pavilion would be a shoo-in for Caroline Lucas. A much bigger majority than now.

Brighton & Hove North is a weird concoction, and one I'm not sure will stay as the final boundary. Whatever, it's got Tory win plastered all over it. Broad daylight second, Green third.