[Politics] Donald Trump, US President Elect 2025

[Zeberdi]

If you haven't yet, but wanted to take the generous odds on Kamala winning, you're too late.

Come on America, don't flush your country down the toilet

That’s just the betting that has changed - not sure the polls have - still to close to call? Different polls paint a different picture

Latest Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

latest polls- still neck and neck in swing states

US election 2024 updates: Polls tight as Trump, Harris hit swing states

These were the updates on the 2024 US election campaign for Sunday, November 3.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[tedebear]

Do we need another thread?

Perfectly good thread already running on the election with a poll too.

You've probably still got me on ignore, but I think its a good time for a fresh one now in the final few days...The other one isn't pleasant reading most of the time.....

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

 

[dwayne]

It's shifted more than a little.

Trump was ahead against Biden, then against Kamala it's been nip and tuck either way until suddenly, for no apparent reason, Trump became a really strong favourite. There was nothing to point to that change - why had people not backed him when he was odds against, but then they decide to back him when he was a strong favourite? There hadn't been a debate or anything in his favour, there hadn't been a change in the polls, he just suddenly became a really strong favourite.

The most obvious answer is that people like Musk chucked a load of money on him, in order to influence people's voting decision. But now the odds are returning towards even as people take advantage of the generous odds available for Kamala.

Makes no sense to me. People are more likely to vote for the perceived winner? Is that even a thing?

 

[Bozza]

I was going to say Trump, mainly because that's what I fear.

However - having just read about his unhinged ranting today, completely deranged even by his own very low standards, the recent polling is clearly getting to him - and the Republicans may have additional polling that is not in the public domain - so I'm going to allow my head follow my heart and say Harris.

 

[Bozza]

Of equal importance - what's the sleep/awake strategy of those wanting to follow it closely?

 

[Triggaaar]

Makes no sense to me. People are more likely to vote for the perceived winner? Is that even a thing?

Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.

 

[aftershavedave]

Of equal importance - what's the sleep/awake strategy of those wanting to follow it closely?

earliest exit polls I believe are around 4am, so that's my strategy

 

[A1X]

Mentally preparing myself for Trump because if there’s one thing democracy has taught us in the last decade it’s that the terrible option usually wins

 

[jcdenton08]

Were loose

 

[KZNSeagull]

I would imagine that there has been a hell of a lot of Scalping (people taking advantage of very small moves in the market) happening on the betting exchanges, which happens on markets that are traded heavily. Trumps odds have shifted 3 or 4 points today for no apparent reason. £150m has been traded on Betfair exchange alone.

 

[Zeberdi]

Yes. If those who are undecided hear that one of the candidates is suddenly well ahead and 'everyone' is backing them, they can think 'well I guess if everyone else thinks they're the right person, they probably are'. That's why the Trump claims he has big crowds and claims the polls say he's winning, because Americans like to vote for winners.

That has been the issue with the betting - I posted a link a few days ago that showed betting can influence outcome for the reason you say.

Millions $$ were bet on Trump from outside the USA which may well have skewed the odds and given voters the impression Trump was winning.

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

 

[Change at Barnham]

I would imagine that there has been a hell of a lot of Scalping (people taking advantage of very small moves in the market) happening on the betting exchanges, which happens on markets that are traded heavily. Trumps odds have shifted 3 or 4 points today for no apparent reason. £150m has been traded on Betfair exchange alone.

Shifted in which direction?

 

[dwayne]

Shifted in which direction?

Towards Kamala.... They have been for a few days

 

[dwayne]

That has been the issue with the betting - I posted a link a few days ago that showed betting can influence outcome for the reason you say.

Millions $$ were bet on Trump from outside the USA which may well have skewed the odds and given voters the impression Trump was winning.

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

Exactly

 

[dwayne]

earliest exit polls I believe are around 4am, so that's my strategy

Maybe but I suspect a winner won't be announced this week. It's gonna be a circus

 

[Triggaaar]

I suppose if people see a candidate apparently so far ahead in the betting, they might not bother to vote - surely that becomes counterproductive if it invigorates people to come out and vote if they think their candidate is losing?

That's not really clear, but what we do know, is that sides like to claim they're winning, which suggests the opposite.

 

[KZNSeagull]

Shifted in which direction?

1.83 to 1.79. Back to 1.8 again now. Trump was as low as 1.41 at one point.
I wouldn't read anything into it, lots of speculators trade on betting exchanges now as well as trading forex or oil prices etc.

 

[sparkie]

‘All I want is a good mic’ -

Trumps performs air oral sex on the mic stand, says ‘damn’, ‘cr*p’ and ‘a*rse’, rips mic off podium and asks audience if they want to see him ‘knock the hell out of people backstage’




So much rage and anger - he drags the whole democratic process of electing the next POTUS into the gutter - November 5 will not be the end of the process to decide who will regain the White House, it will go on until the electoral votes are cast on 17 December and certified on January 6. In the meantime, Trump‘s sole aim is to disrupt and interfere with the process like a far worse adult version of a child who acts out in class because he is bored, has learning difficulties and is bedded in to attention-seeking, histrionic behaviour. The more Harris looks like winning, the worse his behaviour will become.

How ever did this deeply, deeply flawed character become the favourite for 50% of America to have as their President?

It’s unreal.

The senile old man's dementia disinhibition kicking in.

 

[aftershavedave]

Maybe but I suspect a winner won't be announced this week. It's gonna be a circus

that's a fair point i arrived in NYC on election night when those dangler things were at dispute, stayed the week, came home and still no winner