[Albion] Do you think Albion are going down?

[Uh_huh_him]

I dont understand some betting odds. I see Newcastle are 10/11 for drop and we are 14/1 yet we are only a point ahead of them.

Bookies will be using far more data than the league table for their odds.
I agree this does seem extreme, especially when considering Fulham have longer odds than Newcastle.

But even by using just [MENTION=3734]Giraffe[/MENTION]'s excellent staying up tracker, Newcastle are looking the more likely to go down of the 3 teams.
The run in is crucial. If Newcastle beat us next week, there will be a big shift in the odds.

 

[schmunk]

It means punters have placed more money on Newcastle to go down than Brighton, the bookies have responded by making Brighton to go down a more attractive bet, and Newcastle a less attractive bet, in the hope of achieving a more balanced book, so they don't get hammered if it is Newcastle that goes down.

This!

A lot of people seem to think that bookies have some magic insider info or supercomputer working out the odds, but they don't - they just have a stab at the initial odds and then quickly (and repeatedly) adjust them for market sentiment to get an even spread of liabilities - essentially the opposite concept of matched betting.