Championship Odds Tracker

[dazzer6666]

If that happens, then we'd be pretty much there really. Yes, I know not mathematically certain, but we'd be on 64 points from 28 games, so about 28 points required from the remaining 18 games to be in autos.

Although I don't think it will happen, in some odd way, it does feel achievable. We've won 14 and drawn 4 from the last 18 games after all.

What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now. The team, driven (and masterminded - he did a job on the Fulham boss yesterday in the second half, and the same at Brum) by CH, are just desperate to win every game and it shows. It's affecting the psychology of the teams we're playing now - could see it at Brum and saw it again yesterday - when we turn it on, and score (teams know they're largely ****ed then because of our defensive record) it's like they're suddenly swamped. Once Tomer scored yesterday it was almost inevitable we'd get a second and it looked like Fulham knew it as well (perhaps not quite that quickly though )

 

[Gazwag]

11 wins & 3 draws from last 22 will be enough.....................going to find it difficult to not 'count them down' from here................

We always count up to 50, after each game saying the number of points still needed to avoid relegation, still can't believe we got there before the turn of the year. First time we are going to carry on to the theoretical 90, so 36 to go.

 

[larus]

What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now. The team, driven (and masterminded - he did a job on the Fulham boss yesterday in the second half, and the same at Brum) by CH, are just desperate to win every game and it shows. It's affecting the psychology of the teams we're playing now - could see it at Brum and saw it again yesterday - when we turn it on, and score (teams know they're largely ****ed then because of our defensive record) it's like they're suddenly swamped. Once Tomer scored yesterday it was almost inevitable we'd get a second and it looked like Fulham knew it as well (perhaps not quite that quickly though )

In know - F***ing great isn't it!!!

 

[Triggaaar]

What's remarkable this season is that we've won a load of games when we haven't actually played very well, seemingly through a colossal will to win/spirit/determination - yesterday and Brum being the most recent examples. Even last season IF we'd have equalised in either game, we'd most likely have sat back and taken what we'd have accepted as a 'good away point', but not now.

Agreed, accept for the 'haven't played very well' part. Vintage, no, but part of playing well is defending well, pushing for a win and taking chances. Not all teams will let us play free flowing pretty football.

The team ... are just desperate to win every game and it shows.

Indeed. The team are doing the opposite of the crap 'I'd take a point' attitude.

 

[kingcole]

The Leeds win changed nothing. As we were.

 

[Stat Brother]

Agreed, accept for the 'haven't played very well' part. Vintage, no, but part of playing well is defending well, pushing for a win and taking chances. Not all teams will let us play free flowing pretty football.

Indeed. The team are doing the opposite of the crap 'I'd take a point' attitude.

To me 'haven't played very well' is almost code for 'blimey Stockdale has kept us in so many games', which just hasn't been the case.
As with the rest of the squad he's had his moments, but penalty save aside, he's had a fairly regulation time of it.

Hardly the sign of a team not playing very well.
Winning all these games is 'just' a good team being good at what it needs to do.

 

[Triggaaar]

We're shorter odds to finish top 2 with Betfair than we are to get promoted. That's clever.

 

[Postman Pat]

The Leeds win changed nothing. As we were.

Ladbrokes have shortened us from 1/12 to 1/14
Bet 365 have pushed us out from 1/10 to 1/8

 

[dazzer6666]

We're shorted odds to finish top 2 with Betfair than we are to get promoted. That's clever.

Could that be interpreted as they think we'll blow it if we end up in the playoffs ? I'd agree !

 

[OzMike]

Still 2 games in hand over Leeds.

 

[Triggaaar]

Could that be interpreted as they think we'll blow it if we end up in the playoffs ? I'd agree !

Agree?

If we finish top 2, we're promoted. Done. How can we be more likely to finish top 2 than we are to be promoted?

 

[dazzer6666]

Agree?

If we finish top 2, we're promoted. Done. How can we be more likely to finish top 2 than we are to be promoted?

No I don't get that either, but if we finish outside top 2, we'll blow it.........

 

[knocky1]

We're shorter odds to finish top 2 with Betfair than we are to get promoted. That's clever.

Agree?

If we finish top 2, we're promoted. Done. How can we be more likely to finish top 2 than we are to be promoted?

As you know it's not about mathematical probability but money on the table, covering and competing with rival bookies.

 

[Triggaaar]

if we finish outside top 2, we'll blow it.........

Maybe, maybe not.

As you know it's not about mathematical probability but money on the table, covering and competing with rival bookies.

It's still daft.

 

[knocky1]

Maybe, maybe not.

It's still daft.

Yes. It is.
My money is staying in my pocket for both bets at those prices.

 

[Motogull]

Obviously don't lose sight of the fact that this is just a prediction method, it's not guaranteed:

Whilst I love looking at this, I don't suppose you could post the Premier League version could you? I have a feeling it might be mildly amusing.

 

[dazzer6666]

Whilst I love looking at this, I don't suppose you could post the Premier League version could you? I have a feeling it might be mildly amusing.

Don't think they do one - presumably as no promotion to consider. It's all here:

https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/premier-league/

 

[Napier's Knee]

Don't think they do one - presumably as no promotion to consider. It's all here:

https://experimental361.com/category/divisions/premier-league/

is it possible to repost the Championship model from this time last season, just to see how reliable these guys are?

 

[dazzer6666]

is it possible to repost the Championship model from this time last season, just to see how reliable these guys are?

Yes it's all on their website in the link I posted above - just go to E Ratings.16th Jan last season below as an example - Derby the real outlier - they need a model that accounts for the perennial 'Derby Way' .

https://experimental361.com/2016/01/16/e-ratings-update-championship-16-jan-2016/

 

[Triggaaar]

is it possible to repost the Championship model from this time last season, just to see how reliable these guys are?

Good idea. It's not about how reliable they are though, but how useful the measurement is. Some of our chicken counting fans could do with reminding themselves how much things changed last season: