larus
Well-known member
Obviously don't lose sight of the fact that this is just a prediction method, it's not guaranteed:
Crikey. 96% chance of top 2.
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Championship Odds Tracker
- Thread starter kingcole
- Start date
Crikey. 96% chance of top 2.
GingerBeerMan
3-0
- Dec 29, 2011
- 8,204
You'll have to explain to me how Reading have more chance of a top two finish than Leeds but less chance of finishing in the play-offs?
But as cheery Motogull points out, a chance of completely missing the top 6
larus
Well-known member
Probably the type of guy who, if he fell in a tub of tits, would come out sucking his thumb.
Ees complicated. I could have a guess, but I don't really know.
Bear in mind that the model is based on the way teams have played, the number or points they have, and the games they have left. It doesn't take into account teams strengthening in the transfer window, or the affect of injuries on a team. So perhaps we should be a bit less strong favourites than that.
They have. We were 3 to 1 on for top two this morning, now we're 5 to 1 on. Shefwedlol and Derby were around the 12-1 with bookies, now they're 20 and 25 to 1, having been overtaken by Reading, Leeds, and Huddersfield.
That was a big win for us today while rival dropped points.
FatSuperman
Well-known member
- Feb 25, 2016
- 2,922
Probably that the Reading / Leeds game will be Reading at home, so on that basis probably makes it more likely that Reading will win. I could be miles off on that of course, but the model does take into account the difficulty of remaining fixtures, it's not arbitrary.
It'll be because Reading are currently the closest to the top 2 on points (Leeds have more work to do to be able to get there), but the model it's based on has consistently under-valued them. Also keep in mind that Reading (like us) have a game in hand, so the modelling isn't currently working on fully like-for-like comparisons.
Actually, it's probably that game in hand that's causing the aberration. In the modelling runs where they win it, they come out more likely to finish top 2. In the modelling runs where they draw or lose it, they're coming out less likely to make the play offs. It being a game vs Fulham will play a role in that: it's a quality opponent, who is a rival for play offs. For both Reading and Fulham it's a 6-pointer. It has quite a bit of bearing on Leeds' chances as well, as a Reading win gives them extra buffer over them while a loss keeps them within range.
Note that the overall prediction result is that Reading finishes 7th, so their model is still expecting them to fall away - despite their record over the last 10 matches being second only to our own.
Prince Monolulu
Everything in Moderation
Moshe Gariani
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2005
- 12,199
I like the predictor thing (who wouldn't at the moment?!).
In combination with the bookies odds you get a good idea of what is most likely to happen and hence which results to wish for and/or to be most concerned about...
Current state of play:
1. We ARE in a two horse race with Newcastle for the title. The bookies have Newcastle marginal favourites while the predictors favour us. Neither is massively significant - it is a genuine head-to-head that could go either way. I wouldn't have believed this a couple of weeks ago.
2. None of the chasing teams are anything better than outsiders to break into the Top 2. Some previously fancied teams now have practically no chance - i.e. Villa & Norwich
3. In the pack chasing there is no team that stands out based on their form or balance of teams left to be played at home and away. Huddersfield, Derby, Sheff Wed, Leeds and Reading are all equally likely/unlikely to catch us. These are the teams we want to continue to drop points here and there (including a few draws when they play each other) such that our end of season promotion target is a realistic 88 or so rather than some ludicrous 90+ number...
In combination with the bookies odds you get a good idea of what is most likely to happen and hence which results to wish for and/or to be most concerned about...
Current state of play:
1. We ARE in a two horse race with Newcastle for the title. The bookies have Newcastle marginal favourites while the predictors favour us. Neither is massively significant - it is a genuine head-to-head that could go either way. I wouldn't have believed this a couple of weeks ago.
2. None of the chasing teams are anything better than outsiders to break into the Top 2. Some previously fancied teams now have practically no chance - i.e. Villa & Norwich
3. In the pack chasing there is no team that stands out based on their form or balance of teams left to be played at home and away. Huddersfield, Derby, Sheff Wed, Leeds and Reading are all equally likely/unlikely to catch us. These are the teams we want to continue to drop points here and there (including a few draws when they play each other) such that our end of season promotion target is a realistic 88 or so rather than some ludicrous 90+ number...
11 wins & 3 draws from last 22 will be enough.....................going to find it difficult to not 'count them down' from here................
Machiavelli
Well-known member
I said after the Birmingham game, that we needed 12W, 6D, 6L to take us to 90. It's now 10W, 6D, 6L or, as you say 11W, 3D, 8L.
The Camel
Well-known member
The next four fixtures are really tough.
Preston away, Sheff Weds home, Newcastle home, Huddersfield away.
6 or 7 points from those 4 games would be a great haul, but also might well see the pack close up on the top 2 a little bit.
Preston away, Sheff Weds home, Newcastle home, Huddersfield away.
6 or 7 points from those 4 games would be a great haul, but also might well see the pack close up on the top 2 a little bit.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Maybe take Newcastle out of those fixtures and add in a Cardiff midweeker ?
The Massive game is errr... massive and 3 points would set us up nicely to cement a top 2 spot.
The Camel
Well-known member
Maybe take Newcastle out of those fixtures and add in a Cardiff midweeker ?
The Massive game is errr... massive and 3 points would set us up nicely to cement a top 2 spot.
I'm living in the past.
Teams in the top two divisions always used to have a free Saturday for the fouth round of the FA Cup.
Newcastle is obviously pencilled in for that date, and very unlikely to take place.
The Camel
Well-known member
WWWD
14 points clear of 3rd.
I'd be more than happy with DWDD!
Even LWLD wouldn't be too bad.
WWWD
14 points clear of 3rd.
larus
Well-known member
WWWD
14 points clear of 3rd.
If that happens, then we'd be pretty much there really. Yes, I know not mathematically certain, but we'd be on 64 points from 28 games, so about 28 points required from the remaining 18 games to be in autos.
Although I don't think it will happen, in some odd way, it does feel achievable. We've won 14 and drawn 4 from the last 18 games after all.