The problem is that it's already too late. If Labour called a motion of no-confidence on the very first day back from summer recess, the timeline means the resulting election would still be after Brexit day. Boris's first day as PM was Corbyn's one and only opportunity to try to force a pre-Brexit election, and he chose not to take it.
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[Politics] By election result
- Thread starter drew
- Start date
The problem is that it's already too late. If Labour called a motion of no-confidence on the very first day back from summer recess, the timeline means the resulting election would still be after Brexit day. Boris's first day as PM was Corbyn's one and only opportunity to try to force a pre-Brexit election, and he chose not to take it.
There's an interesting paradox here though. BP's chance of getting any real power is to do a deal with the Tories so they stand aside in some constituencies and the Tories stand aside in a few too. Under this deal, Farage would be given a cabinet seat. But if they start polling too weakly, Tories would consider them an irrelevance and see no need to do a deal.
But - and here's the paradox - a low-polling Brexit party would still take votes from the Tories.
It's a bit of a problem for Johnson to decide what to do
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
The (il)liberal win highlights that the Tories, in spite of the utter mess they've created with Brexit, are doing much better than one would expect. Labour must be cacking themselves that a GE will be called by Boris or by a vote of no confidence. As things stand Labour will drop off the precipice into oblivion with Corbyn leading. The joker in the pack is the Brexit party who can maybe scupper the Conservatives in key seats and hand victory to the il(liberals).
50.14% if you want to be precise, and that is if you blue-rinse types would be happy asking for full cooperation from the racists that are UKIP - the modern day BNP. I'm not sure they'd have bothered, and with that in mind the Tories and Brexit parties are under 50%. Regardless, it is entirely the fault of Conservative and Brexit parties anyway. Kinky Gerbils has already pointed out the Brexit Party failing, but the Tories were the architects of their own downfall, putting up a proven thief AGAIN as a candidate for a by-election forced because that very candidate had been caught stealing.
So really, it's not really about the right failing to cooperate, it's about breathtaking Tory arrogance and the Brexit party not recognising the limits of their own popularity.
Perkino
Well-known member
- Dec 11, 2009
- 6,053
If Nick Clegg from 2010 (prior to his tuition fees scandal) was in charge of the Lib Dems now they'd be the party to win a general election. The majority of his (and the parties) ideas were great and they were a very popular party under him. Astonishingly the Tories and Labour haven't demonstrated strong leadership for a number of years
But Corbyn chose not to take it because he knew that it had zero chance of getting passed - and that may have been the only crack at a no confidence vote.
We know that there were discussions about it but any no-confidence motion needs some Tory votes and the word relayed from the discussions was that even wavering Tories were going to give him a chance and that none would vote him out (but there'd almost certainly be Labour MPs who would).
I imagine this position will change - there are strong rumours that some Tory MPs will defect over the summer - and if it becomes more likely that there's a move to No Deal, we'll certainly see a no confidence motion in September. But putting forward one last week would have been bonkers.
It had >0% chance of being passed. It might have been small, but it wasn't zero. There is however, 0% chance of forcing a no-deal-preventing election now. Personally, I think if you have only one chance to stop a no-deal, however small, you take it... unless, of course, you're not actually that strongly opposed to it.
Jackthelad
Well-known member
- Mar 31, 2010
- 1,075
Lib Dems are only doing well because they are very clear with where they stand on Brexit. Nick Clegg's Lib Dems lied to the students about fees, they lied to the poorer communities when they allowed and voted for austerity and the bedroom tax, cutting payments for disabled etc. Clegg reminds me a lot of ex-Labour chuka umunna weak and selfish whose real passion is himself.
Kuipers Supporters Club
Well-known member
I do agree with this, but in the north Brexit will also take lots from Labour ...
midnight_rendezvous
Well-known member
Both parties are in utter disarray. You have the Labour infighting where the centrists would rather get rid of Corbyn than the Tories, and they’re stuck between a rock and a hard place re Brexit as their membership is split between remain and leave. Corbyn, great man, great policies but as a leader... well...
No. It had zero chance of being passed. Tories had a majority of two but Elphicke would certainly have voted to support Johnson, O'Mara's absent and would have abstained and at least one Labour MP (Hoey) would have voted down a NC vote.
That means that there was a requirement for at least four Tories to vote down their own leader. There were discussions with some of the likely candidates -their names weren't revealed but we can guess (Lee, Gyimah, Spelman, Grieve, Turgenhadt etc) and there were no MPs prepared to vote against Johnson.
So, a no confidence vote would have had zero chance of being passed. The Labour leadership knew this, which is why they wouldn't go along with it.
bha100
Active member
- Aug 25, 2011
- 898
According to the beeb if they get their timings right a election can be squeezed in on or just before the 31st Oct
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49004486
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,781
But how would the Farage party not being represented have furthered the aims of the Farage project ?
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They've changed their tune - it was Laura Kuennsberg saying before that it was now too late
This is good news though.
I think the Lib Dems would have a chance of gaining a hell of a lot more seats than they ever had, as well as the Greens - time for a brand new government.
Wardy's twin
Well-known member
- Oct 21, 2014
- 8,874
its the sheer arrogance of the right of the Tory party bolstered by the fact that they can say/do any nonsense and still have a lot of voters
Pavilionaire
Well-known member
- Jul 7, 2003
- 31,274
Or maybe people are realising blaming a minority party for all the ills of a coalition was dumb?
The moment UK politics started going tits up was the moment the Lid Dems were decimated in the 2015 GE, and the moment politics has come to its senses is with the resurgence of the Lib Dems.
British politics needs a strong functioning centrist party to keep the other two honest.
Jackthelad
Well-known member
- Mar 31, 2010
- 1,075
Lid Dems are strong on their views on Brexit and that's about it.
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
If a General Election is called, an extension will be granted to Article 50.