[Football] "Brighton Struggle to Score Goals" Cliche

[Stato]

We all know that our conversion rate is poor and that our actual goals scored is well below our Xg. However, I'm starting to get totally sick of the lazy punditry that uses 'they play well but can't score goals' as the one line platitude expected to explain a very complex situation in a soundbite. We know that every team in the world would like to score more goals than they do, but this statement seems to be being applied to us and only us. Its annoying, because although it is a criticism that could be directed at us, it is not the most appropriate criticism of us and we are not the team that the criticism best applies to.

In simple goals scored - We are 12th with 22, Fulham, WBA, Burnley & Sheff Utd all have less than 15; https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals

In terms of goals per game - We are 13th, scoring on average approximately twice as many goals per game than the bottom three performers; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=d

In terms of games where we fail to score - We are joint 9th with 4, level with Chelsea, Leicester & Southampton; https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england&tid=z

In terms of conversion rate - We are 15th, a place below Manchester City; https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/chancenverwertung/wettbewerb/GB1

Compare this with other stats that tell the story of our season and it suggests that the continued concentration on 'they can't score goals' is distracting from our real problems:

We are 16th in goals conceded: https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/clubs/goals_conceded
17th for goals conceded per game; https://footystats.org/england/premier-league/goals-conceded-table
Joint 15th for goals conceded from set pieces; https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021
Joint last for penalties conceded: https://www.whoscored.com/Regions/2...amStatistics/England-Premier-League-2020-2021

We know that we can't win games at home. We consistently find ways to draw games that we should win both home and away. There is a thread on here about the short amount of time that we hold onto a lead for. We're fourth from bottom on the number of fouls we commit, which may not be helping the number of set piece goals we concede. We are the leakiest team in the league in terms of how many chances it takes to score against us: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/. We are also last in terms of team save percentage: https://fbref.com/en/comps/9/keepers/Premier-League-Stats.

Our position is frustrating as we are so close to being an effective team in this league. My own frustration is being added to by so many in the media consistently misdiagnosing our failings after a cursory glance at some highlights. I'm sorry about the stats overload, but thanks for giving me somewhere to vent. I've sensed from a couple of his comments that Potter is also a bit fed up with this being trotted out every time he faces the media. It can't be easy to instill the confidence needed to avoid self fulfilling prophecy in our attacking players, when nearly everyone with a shilling to earn from punditry is recycling the same simplistic rebuke.

'Brighton just can't score goals!' They say. Perhaps we need to respond with Ben Goldacre's mantra 'I think you'll find it's a bit more complicated than that.'

 

[Napper]

should be " Brighton struggle to score enough goals"

For the chances we create , we shouldnt have to worry about the fragility of our defence

 

[Shuggie]

Totally agree ... it was trotted out in the early stages of the Wolves game despite that fact that we had scored 20% more goals than them at the time.

I don't know whether the pundits are lazy, ill-informed or just unable to read a league table but they are remarkably ignorant of these basic stats. Most people looking at the table can see the problem is how many we concede. However, if the media did cotton on to how fragile our defence has been this season, that would require a u-turn on the Lamptey/White love in. They don't like changing their "narratives" (wankers) so I wouldn't expect much to change. Unfortunately, the analysts employed by our opponents pay a lot more attention to the data than the pundits, dammit.

It would however be good if the NSC boot boys could wake up to this and be more supportive of GP/DA/PB as they try and sort out the weaknesses in our half of the pitch.

 

[Stato]

should be " Brighton struggle to score enough goals"

For the chances we create , we shouldnt have to worry about the fragility of our defence

That's conversion rate. Ours is poor, but not the worst: 6.9% compared with Man City's 7.3%. However, we have conceded more than double the goals they have.

If you compare our stats from this year: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/ with those from last year: https://experimental361.com/2020/07/27/scatter-graphics-premier-league-2019-20/, our attacking effectiveness has not changed very much. Slightly more shots needed to score is balanced out by more slightly more shots being taken. The defensive effectiveness has shifted considerably, conceding once for every five and a bit shots allowed, a rate that looks like a statistical outlier that other teams don't come near to.

 

[DarrenFreemansPerm]

[tweet]1348646990725443584[/tweet]

 

[Stato]

However, if the media did cotton on to how fragile our defence has been this season, that would require a u-turn on the Lamptey/White love in.

That's true, but I have a feeling that, as he likes the system, Potter intends to try to compensate by reinforcing the midfield with more athletic/defensive minded players who can provide defensive cover. Hence the recall of Moder and the interest in Caicedo.

 

[vagabond]

[emoji122][emoji122][emoji122]

A fantastically researched and well thought out, provoking OP.

What are you doing posting here?

 

[Poyningsgull]

It also explains why we have so few virus cases as there are so few goal celebrations.

 

[Monkey Man]

I'm finding a lot of the commentary this season, especially in the early stages of matches, very annoying and predictable.

"It's been said that Brighton aren't ruthless enough."

"Graham Potter was brought in to change Brighton's style of play."

"They do struggle to score goals."

"Haven't won a league game at home since 1978, which will be a worry."

"They've certainly been unlucky at times but do need to start converting their chances."

Etc.

 

[Stato]

I'm finding a lot of the commentary this season, especially in the early stages of matches, very annoying and predictable.

"It's been said that Brighton aren't ruthless enough."

"Graham Potter was brought in to change Brighton's style of play."

"They do struggle to score goals."

"Haven't won a league game at home since 1978, which will be a worry."

"They've certainly been unlucky at times but do need to start converting their chances."

Etc.

Jonathan Pearce has family connections with Brighton and is now getting so grumpy about our repeated failure to change things that he is starting to sound like the voices in our heads.

 

[beorhthelm]

surprised we've scored 21, more than most in the bottom half. certainly feels like we've scored fewer.

 

[Shuggie]

That's true, but I have a feeling that, as he likes the system, Potter intends to try to compensate by reinforcing the midfield with more athletic/defensive minded players who can provide defensive cover. Hence the recall of Moder and the interest in Caicedo.

Indeed, hence the suggestion NCS tries "to be more supportive of GP/DA/PB as they try and sort out the weaknesses in our half of the pitch"

 

[elwheelio]

That's conversion rate. Ours is poor, but not the worst: 6.9% compared with Man City's 7.3%. However, we have conceded more than double the goals they have.

If you compare our stats from this year: https://experimental361.com/2020/12/26/scatter-graphics-premier-league-22-dec-2020/ with those from last year: https://experimental361.com/2020/07/27/scatter-graphics-premier-league-2019-20/, our attacking effectiveness has not changed very much. Slightly more shots needed to score is balanced out by more slightly more shots being taken. The defensive effectiveness has shifted considerably, conceding once for every five and a bit shots allowed, a rate that looks like a statistical outlier that other teams don't come near to.

True. Our conversion rate isn't that bad. It's not like we're creating endless great chances.

 

[Pavilionaire]

It's a pundit conspiracy. The first one to break ranks and start talking about xG and xGA will immediately be ostracised by the pundit community.

This is because the alternative - which is unthinkable - is that they'll all have to spend several hours boning up on the stats and doing some preparation for matches, rather than just turning up.

 

[BeHereNow]

Some good analysis there.

Because we have a poor conversation rate it adds to the illusion that we can’t score goals even though we can. If we had an average conversion rate would would be well over 30 goals and probably at least 6 points better off. We are also joint 2nd for hitting the woodwork, in another season half of those could have easily gone in. It’s all small margins.

With a better conversation rate we wouldn’t have to worry too much about the amount of goals we concede, but you could also say we wouldn’t have to worry about our conversation rate if we didn’t concede as many. At the moment, both those things are going against us, it can easily turn around.

 

[blue-shifted]

I'm finding a lot of the commentary this season, especially in the early stages of matches, very annoying and predictable.

"It's been said that Brighton aren't ruthless enough."

"Graham Potter was brought in to change Brighton's style of play."

"They do struggle to score goals."

"Haven't won a league game at home since 1978, which will be a worry."

"They've certainly been unlucky at times but do need to start converting their chances."

Etc.

You omitted the references about Ben White having a loan spell at Leeds and Lamptey having been at Chelsea

 

[Badger]

You omitted the references about Ben White having a loan spell at Leeds and Lamptey having been at Chelsea

Apparently Dan Burn is 6ft7

 

[Stato]

Apparently Dan Burn is 6ft7

Is he now? Tell me, is that unusual for a left back?

 

[blue-shifted]

Apparently Dan Burn is 6ft7

Ha yeh, and Arsenal have been linked with Bissouma

 

[zefarelly]

So the stats suggest having 27 defenders in your squad does not make for a good defensive unit.