[Albion] Brighton - "more ruthless, less ballet"

[ozzygull]

Does anyone else keep looking at the table and think you're playing a game called "Find the odd one out"?

 

[Simster]

So either something fairly fundamental has changed or "expected" this and that is bollocks after all.

xG isn't and never has been "bollocks". You only have to look at last season's figures to see this - it's just that the Albion were a massive outlier, an exception to prove the rule.

This season, we've done better than our xG scored and our xG conceded which isn't that much of a surprise and can be explained buy one game (Leicester) where we could very easily not have scored a pen if it hadn't been given, and Leicester should have had at least one goal more (possibly two). Over a period of a dozen games or more, I'd expect xG to be fairly similar to actual goals scored and conceded.

 

[Change at Barnham]

What a wonderful thread to read.
I think I've clicked more 'Likes' on this thread than any other.

It's crazy to even think it, but like others have mentioned I reckon we look more solid with Duffy at the back rather than Ben White (who is class and IMHO is worth £50m).
When we have a situation where a class player like Mac Allister isn't used is ridiculous, and we now just accept Sanchez is between the posts and does what he does, but he's such a reassuring presence. And we have the experience and quality of Welbeck and Lallana just getting on with it.

At some point we'll go several games without winning and the critics will pipe up, but when it happens it will be a lot more bearable with a few points under our belt.
I'll happily take a finish of 12th to 14th at this point and to continue playing entertaining football.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Great thread. Thing it's an example of much better management. Less focus on passing for passing's sake (likely partially because of Duffy) and we are reaping the rewards.

It must be true that we will pass it around less ambitiously at the back now we have Duffy and not White in place. The ball will go forward more directly than when we had players more capable of a sequence of tighter passes.

I'm not convinced that in itself is a good thing.

If we are to do better than last year - despite being slightly less good at passing out from the back - then it will be because we have a better goalie all season, more pace in the side and we finish our chances a bit better.

 

[Guinness Boy]

xG isn't and never has been "bollocks". You only have to look at last season's figures to see this - it's just that the Albion were a massive outlier, an exception to prove the rule.

This season, we've done better than our xG scored and our xG conceded which isn't that much of a surprise and can be explained buy one game (Leicester) where we could very easily not have scored a pen if it hadn't been given, and Leicester should have had at least one goal more (possibly two). Over a period of a dozen games or more, I'd expect xG to be fairly similar to actual goals scored and conceded.

I'd accept that five games is maybe too short a period in isolation because if you order that understat table by xP you get Man City top, Brentford above Chelsea, us 9th and Leicester in the relegation zone. It'll be worth checking again after 12 or so games (if I remember). But by "massive outlier" we've had a swing of 26 expected points! Twenty six.

 

[Terry Butcher Tribute Act]

It must be true that we will pass it around less ambitiously at the back now we have Duffy and not White in place. The ball will go forward more directly than when we had players more capable of a sequence of tighter passes.

I'm not convinced that in itself is a good thing.

If we are to do better than last year - despite being slightly less good at passing out from the back - then it will be because we have a better goalie all season, more pace in the side and we finish our chances a bit better.

And a more streetwise group of players and a coach who have 'learned' from the frequent frustrations last year?

I enjoyed yesterday more than anything I saw last season. Wonderful game of football. Two very strong sides.

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

 

[Guinness Boy]

I enjoyed yesterday more than anything I saw last season. Wonderful game of football. Two very strong sides.

Sent from my SM-G998B using Tapatalk

Yes, absolutely this.

It was EXACTLY what I said to my mate with about 10 mins to go. We were still just about holding on but the entertainment, atmosphere, controversy, skill and effort from both sides was outstanding. I really enjoyed the Man City game but being distanced and having no away fans took the edge off it. The atmosphere as the lads dug in, how they responded, hugging at the end, laughing at (and feeling sorry for) the Leicester fans. All incredible and certainly preferable to watching us on telly having 75% possession, all of it slow and at the back and 20 odd shots straight at a defender or into Row Z.

 

[Barnet Seagull]

It's interesting isn't it. I don't see too much dissimilar to the end of last season. There's no real revolution.
Last season I was pretty clear that our major shortcoming was the speed of our attacking transition. Too often last year, teams were able to settle in to shape and we would struggle to break them down.
Just seems that this year we're moving the ball faster and being a little more direct when it's on.
Also, we've had a little more luck, which has been welcome.

We aren't anywhere near as good as we were towards the tail-end of last season but there are some very good signs.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

Talking after the game yesterday with a couple of long time home and away Brighton fans and one started the conversation with the assertion that we are far more ruthless this season - I agree and used the phrase "more ruthless, less ballet". By which I mean we seem to be caring about the result more than the performance.

After a couple of games, particularly as we delivered an excellent performance as well against Watford, it could just have been the way we started but after 5 games it seems to be a bit of a pattern. In three of the five games we've won by a one goal margin having not dominated the game. Our xG and possession stats are lower. Oh, and we've had some luck. All last season with no luck at all, Now big slices, whether it was Burnley hitting the post or the VAR decisions going our way yesterday.

For me, at least part of this is down to White going and Duffy coming in. We've had to abandon the slavish adherence to wing backs. Yesterday we looked like we'd lined up as 4-3-3 to match Leicester, albeit that Cucerella was pushed up high the way Liverpool use Robertson (what a signing MC looks too) and when we needed to dig in an fight at the back we did.

It also suits our strikers. Two goals from strikers again yesterday and Maupay is in the form of his life.

In short, it seems that Potter has brought a bit more rugged football to go with the rugged look - without resorting to long ball nastiness or a low block.

I obviously love it but what do you prefer - the pretty patterns and missed chances or getting results from difficult situations?

The perfect post.

 

[Simster]

I'd accept that five games is maybe too short a period in isolation because if you order that understat table by xP you get Man City top, Brentford above Chelsea, us 9th and Leicester in the relegation zone. It'll be worth checking again after 12 or so games (if I remember). But by "massive outlier" we've had a swing of 26 expected points! Twenty six.

I agree that we were a ridiculous outlier, it was absolutely absurd. The sheer number of games leaving us pissed off and shaking our heads was quite incredible really - and it was never because of managerial naivity or poor squad selection or whatever - just profligacy, or plain bitter, bad luck. That WBA away game - a perfectly good goal disallowed and TWO missed pens. Or Man Utd home - 5 times we hit the woodwork. FIVE! The less said about the Palace home game the better, and it's not as if that was an isolated case either. There were so many of these games. Sheff Utd at home who scored with their one attack when down to ten men as we failed with wave after wave of attacks. Both Fulham games we should have won (another marginal decision goal ruled out there), and so on.

We were frequently better than our opposition (sometimes battering them) and failed to win. It really was barely believable. The reason I was never "Potter Out" was because I had never seen such absurd luck/results in all my life and just was not prepared to lay the results we were seeing at the manager's door. As I kept saying all last season, I'd love to have felt it was reasonable to blame Potter and call for a change, but I just couldn't do it. It was this level of frustration that made last season quite unenjoyable at times, despite playing some lovely football, so I'm delighted at Potter getting what he deserves this time round.

 

[Glawstergull]

We also played some of our best football last season against the better teams and, as detractors don't stop reminding us, we've had an easy run so far. Arsenal, City and Liverpool will give us a different kind of test

We also played some of our best football last season against the better teams and, as detractors don't stop reminding us, we've had an easy run so far. Arsenal, City and Liverpool will give us a different kind of test.

If i recall correctly we beat Liverpool and City last time we met.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I agree that we were a ridiculous outlier, it was absolutely absurd. The sheer number of games leaving us pissed off and shaking our heads was quite incredible really - and it was never because of managerial naivity or poor squad selection or whatever - just profligacy, or plain bitter, bad luck. That WBA away game - a perfectly good goal disallowed and TWO missed pens. Or Man Utd home - 5 times we hit the woodwork. FIVE! The less said about the Palace home game the better, and it's not as if that was an isolated case either. There were so many of these games. Sheff Utd at home who scored with their one attack when down to ten men as we failed with wave after wave of attacks. Both Fulham games we should have won (another marginal decision goal ruled out there), and so on.

We were frequently better than our opposition (sometimes battering them) and failed to win. It really was barely believable. The reason I was never "Potter Out" was because I had never seen such absurd luck/results in all my life and just was not prepared to lay the results we were seeing at the manager's door. As I kept saying all last season, I'd love to have felt it was reasonable to blame Potter and call for a change, but I just couldn't do it. It was this level of frustration that made last season quite unenjoyable at times, despite playing some lovely football, so I'm delighted at Potter getting what he deserves this time round.

That was exactly how I saw last season as well

 

[Richy_Seagull]

It's not a stat I particularly like but a lot of the defence of Potter at the start of the 20/21 season when we weren't getting results was how good our xG was.

This season we have scored 7 goals against an xgF (expected to score) of 5.93. We have conceded 4 versus 5.73 expected. And the difference between the two is therefore only 0.2. In expected points we are overachieving by 5.25 points.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

Compare that to last season where we scored 13 fewer than expected and underachieved against expected points by over 20.

So either something fairly fundamental has changed or "expected" this and that is bollocks after all.

I think you've contradicted mine and Keegan's point here. As I tried to point out here: https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?384761-The-Alternative-Giraffe-Tracker&p=9842828&highlight=#post9842828 the underperformance last season could be viewed in itself evidence that we had the fundamentals of a very good football team. The underperformance levels were so large they had never been seen that big in a major league before (since these metrics were starting to be used).

In terms of this season, firstly it's still a very small sample size, so all of it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. An overperformace of a goal or two means very little, we are pretty close to getting what is statistically "expected".

And as for your last point "So either something fairly fundamental has changed or "expected" this and that is bollocks after all"....this just simply isn't true. Variance exists everywhere, you can toss a coin and get 10 heads in a row, that doesn't change the fundamental fact there was a 50/50 chance each time. Of course results aren't always going to match the numbers because its a sport and is packed full of random events. But over time its useful to see how strong a team is. So will be interesting to see how it changes as the season goes on.

For now I'm sticking to my original view that really not that much has changed since last season, other than we didn't concede more than 1 at Burnley when they could/should have had more in first, grabbed a last min goal away at Brentford when hardly created a decent chance all game, and got 3 big decisions go our way yesterday. And I for one am absolutely ****ing loving it.

 

[Barnet Seagull]

What a wonderful thread to read.
I think I've clicked more 'Likes' on this thread than any other.

It's crazy to even think it, but like others have mentioned I reckon we look more solid with Duffy at the back rather than Ben White (who is class and IMHO is worth £50m).
When we have a situation where a class player like Mac Allister isn't used is ridiculous, and we now just accept Sanchez is between the posts and does what he does, but he's such a reassuring presence. And we have the experience and quality of Welbeck and Lallana just getting on with it.

At some point we'll go several games without winning and the critics will pipe up, but when it happens it will be a lot more bearable with a few points under our belt.
I'll happily take a finish of 12th to 14th at this point and to continue playing entertaining football.

That's all very well but I'm still waiting to see how we fare with both Cucurella and Lamptey in the side. It is frightening.

 

[peterward]

I agree that the overall mentality throughout the squad is better - tougher, comfortable without the ball, patient.

It's interesting how we've done without Gross in these last 2 fixtures. I actually think the likes of Lallana and Trossard have both raised their game and it affords us the luxury of playing March who can then assist on either flank if called upon.

Totally agree. There's more spark and fluidity without Gross imho. He's a great player and servant, his dead ball stats dont lie, but he is slow and slows the game often in the way Dale Stephens also used to.

We may miss some of Gross corners, free kicks etc, but when quickly trying to counter and turn defence into attack, the last 2 starting 11's have looked a lot more adventurous/quicker.

Maybe thats also Cucu and with Lamptey back on the other side we're going to have breathtaking pace on the flanks.

Still a great squad player and with plenty of cup games to come, he's still valuable, but I like Lallana with Biss a lot more.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I think you've contradicted mine and Keegan's point here. As I tried to point out here: https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?384761-The-Alternative-Giraffe-Tracker&p=9842828&highlight=#post9842828 the underperformance last season could be viewed in itself evidence that we had the fundamentals of a very good football team. The underperformance levels were so large they had never been seen that big in a major league before (since these metrics were starting to be used).

In terms of this season, firstly it's still a very small sample size, so all of it needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. An overperformace of a goal or two means very little, we are pretty close to getting what is statistically "expected".

And as for your last point "So either something fairly fundamental has changed or "expected" this and that is bollocks after all"....this just simply isn't true. Variance exists everywhere, you can toss a coin and get 10 heads in a row, that doesn't change the fundamental fact there was a 50/50 chance each time. Of course results aren't always going to match the numbers because its a sport and is packed full of random events. But over time its useful to see how strong a team is. So will be interesting to see how it changes as the season goes on.

For now I'm sticking to my original view that really not that much has changed since last season, other than we didn't concede more than 1 at Burnley when they could/should have had more in first, grabbed a last min goal away at Brentford when hardly created a decent chance all game, and got 3 big decisions go our way yesterday. And I for one am absolutely ****ing loving it.

Sorry, but as I said to Simster a 26 point xP swing isn't a statistical anomaly and it is backed up by what we're seeing with our own eyes. We're mentally stronger, playing it forward more, finishing better and getting luckier. And, yes, I think we're all absolutely ****ing loving it. I must have loaded the Premier League table on the BBC at least twenty times since the final whistle

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

Sorry, but as I said to Simster a 26 point xP swing isn't a statistical anomaly and it is backed up by what we're seeing with our own eyes. We're mentally stronger, playing it forward more, finishing better and getting luckier. And, yes, I think we're all absolutely ****ing loving it. I must have loaded the Premier League table on the BBC at least twenty times since the final whistle

What many people are seeing with their own eyes is a continuation of last season's mental strength, forward play, tactics and style being transferred into points. xP from last season should tell you how well we were playing last season and all that has happened is that this has transferred into more actual points this season getting ahead of an xP this season. I also think you have the xP swing wrong. the xP last season was +21 above what we got, this season season the xP is -5 on what we have, the swing is 16 not 26.

 

[Guinness Boy]

What many people are seeing with their own eyes is a continuation of last season's mental strength, forward play, tactics and style being transferred into points. xP from last season should tell you how well we were playing last season and all that has happened is that this has transferred into more actual points this season getting ahead of an xP this season. I also think you have the xP swing wrong. the xP last season was +21 above what we got, this season season the xP is -5 on what we have, the swing is 16 not 26.

What's the difference between MINUS 5 and PLUS 21?

 

[KeegansHairPiece]

What's the difference between MINUS 5 and PLUS 21?

This is why I have to have a good accountant. Rest of the point stands though.

 

[DavidinSouthampton]

Some of the play yesterday, especially from Lallana, Trossard and Cucurella was most definitely ballet. It was lovely to watch (although in terms of pure liquid football the Leicester goal was the painful highlight). But it was also very noticeable that we matched their physicality. Duffy, Bissouma and Maupay standing out in that regard, but even the likes of Trossard getting stuck in when needed. We did get very very lucky imo, but we put ourselves in a position to take advantage of that luck when it came.

I was going to comment that Duffy is a major contribution to the ruthless, but Trossard in having been given more of a roving role is providing a lot of ballet…………… as are Lallana and the Big Hair!…… as well as plenty of others.

Sorry to mention Trossard again, but I agreed with my brother yesterday that, for someone who looks so light and frail, Trossard is amazingly robust. People much bigger seem to bounce off him, or he holds them off well a lot of the time. But nobody seems to be afraid of the physical.