[Politics] Brexit

[peterward]

interesting article in the DT today......

"I'm sure it was purely pressure of space that stopped the BBC website reporting a forecast by the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) that the UK economy will grow to become 23 per cent larger than that of France by 2035. It mentioned in passing that the CEBR has the UK growing by four per cent per year between now and 2025 and by 1.8 per cent from 2026 onwards, but only at the end of a long report about the Chinese economy overtaking the US by 2028. What it didn’t say was that the CEBR sees UK growth outstripping that of EU countries. The French economy is currently 3.5 per cent behind that of the UK. The CEBR also sees the UK economy outgrowing Germany: today, it is 43 per cent smaller but by 2035, reckons the CEBR, it will be just 10 per cent behind.

True, I don’t put much store by economic forecasts, nearly all of which are about as accurate as Michael Fish’s infamous failure to forecast the Great Storm of 1987. Yet the BBC’s omission is a little odd in that the corporation has been previously been assiduous in reporting think tanks’ economic forecasts for post-Brexit Britain, often making them lead items on the news. To give a flavour, in 2016 it reported that the “CBI cuts forecast amid Brexit dark cloud of uncertainty”. In 2017 it reported “IMF downgrades UK growth forecast on Brexit”, while on the negotiation of the withdrawal agreement in October 2019 it reported: “Brexit Deal means £70 billion hit to UK”.

It isn’t hard to spot a slight theme here: when economists were forecasting doom it was big news; when they start changing their minds and decide that actually a post-Brexit UK will outperform the EU it is no news at all. And the CEBR really has changed its mind. Four years ago, in its first assessment of global economic prospects following Brexit, it saw the UK tumbling from being the fifth largest economy to the eight largest by 2030, slipping behind Korea and France. It now sees Britain being overtaken only by India, and holding onto its position as sixth largest economy by 2035.


Economists are being forced to revisit doom-laden forecasts for Brexit because they were so wrong first time around, laughably so in the case of the Treasury. In May 2016 – a month before the referendum – it claimed that a vote for Brexit would, within the space of two years, cause the economy to shrink by up to six per cent relative to its performance if we voted to remain, and unemployment to grow by up to 800,000. In the event, the economy grew and unemployment fell to its lowest level in 45 years.

The Treasury wasn’t alone, though. Virtually every think tank forecast a grim outcome from Brexit. It is little surprise that they did because their forecasts were built on the assumption that there could be no positive outcome from Brexit, except for the government saving a few billion on its contributions to EU coffers. What about the possibility of a post-Brexit UK benefitting from smarter regulation or from trade deals with non-EU countries? These never even entered the equation. Model after model merely measured the cost of greater friction in trade between the UK and the EU.

The economists have some sort of excuse for this: they say they couldn’t possibly foresee how a UK government might use its new-found freedom. Maybe not, but in that case why pump out forecasts at all, when you admit you cannot measure all the factors which need to be measured?

And now here we are, out of the EU, and the shape of post-Brexit Britain is becoming a bit clearer. Not only do we have a deal with the EU, we have rolled over most of the trade deals with had with non-EU countries by virtue of our EU membership. Already we have made progress with a trade agreement with our single biggest export market, the US – a basic deal with which might well be concluded before Donald Trump leaves office on 20 January.

No wonder think tanks are being forced to revisit their forecasts, with the potential benefits of Brexit becoming clearer. It would just be nice if their changes of heart could be reported as boldly as their initial doom-laden forecasts. "

 

[daveinplzen]

Time to take stock of what Brexit means, pretty much a carbon copy of vote leaves literature in 2016 eh?

View attachment 131844

Just read this
EU got everything it wanted. Well done Boris.The tough negotiations prevailed. What a triumph.

 

[Randy McNob]

Just read this
EU got everything it wanted. Well done Boris.The tough negotiations prevailed. What a triumph.

I was wondering if it was that on the ballot paper in 2016 what the vote would be?

Because it was sold as we would have exactly the same as being members, and lets be honest, only NOW do we know exactly what was voted for. Some would argue now you're selling me something completely different I want to change my mind

 

[CHAPPERS]

I see one of the bad boys of Brexit, and government contracted COVID tester Andy Wigmore is one of the tossers who fled COVID lockdown in Switzerland.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I see one of the bad boys of Brexit, and government contracted COVID tester Andy Wigmore is one of the tossers who fled COVID lockdown in Switzerland.

I see that even the Brexit press are confused

Andy Wigmore, a spokesman for Leave.EU campaign co-founder Arron Banks, was holidaying at the Wengen ski resort when he received a message from Swiss authorities informing him of the mandatory quarantine coming into effect on December 22.

Wigmore, 54, and his family fled to France that day, reaching the border 20 minutes before the quarantine began.

'We were like the Von Trapp family from The Sound of Music, we made it over the mountains to freedom!,' he told MailOnline.

'There were police stopping everyone and asking them if they were British.

'We were among a number of Brits who made it out.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9092737/Brexiteer-Andy-Wigmore-British-tourists-fled-Switzerland-avoid-10-day-quarantine.html

The poor loves.

I can't imagine how any fellow Brexit supporter, revelling in their well earned victory, wouldn't well up with national pride at such a close escape from those pesky Europeans, particularly those who love an anti Covid rules rebel. Maybe we should go for 'we're all in it together' ? I know five words is pushing the attention span a bit, but I'm sure it would hit home with the target audience

Whenever I've been to Wengen, being a pauper, I've had to share a coach in and out (once with Timmy Mallett and his son, but I'd never name drop )

 

[Randy McNob]

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

View attachment 131857

Says someone continually moaning while floating in a tin can far above the world
Regards
DF

 

[daveinprague]

Says someone continually moaning while floating in a tin can far above the world
Regards
DF

Says a serial State scrounger.

 

[vegster]

I see that even the Brexit press are confused

Andy Wigmore, a spokesman for Leave.EU campaign co-founder Arron Banks, was holidaying at the Wengen ski resort when he received a message from Swiss authorities informing him of the mandatory quarantine coming into effect on December 22.

Wigmore, 54, and his family fled to France that day, reaching the border 20 minutes before the quarantine began.

'We were like the Von Trapp family from The Sound of Music, we made it over the mountains to freedom!,' he told MailOnline.

'There were police stopping everyone and asking them if they were British.

'We were among a number of Brits who made it out.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9092737/Brexiteer-Andy-Wigmore-British-tourists-fled-Switzerland-avoid-10-day-quarantine.html

The poor loves.

I can't imagine how any fellow Brexit supporter, revelling in their well earned victory, wouldn't well up with national pride at such a close escape from those pesky Europeans, particularly those who love an anti Covid rules rebel. Maybe we should go for 'we're all in it together' ? I know five words is pushing the attention span a bit, but I'm sure it would hit home with the target audience [emoji38]ol:

Whenever I've been to Wengen, being a pauper, I've had to share a coach in and out (once with Timmy Mallett and his son, but I'd never name drop )

Surely these Swiss must know that normal rules do not apply to us Brits? When will they learn that we are special?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

JC - I'm curious. Who do you think my secondary account is?

It's hard to know you all sound the same to me.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Surely these Swiss must know that normal rules do not apply to us Brits? When will they learn that we are special?

1.1.2021
Regards
DF

 

[Randy McNob]

I found a Brexiteer who, weirdly, didn't know exactly what he was voting for

[tweet]1343707078368620549[/tweet]

 

[WATFORD zero]

For any smugglers worried that the Government may actually introduce the promised border checks at Dover next summer (because they always keep promises), there is an alternative long term route, but I see the Government has already put in place measures to stop smuggling through Ireland/NI into Britain. They've told people that they shouldn't do it. That should work

Three days before the UK leaves the European Union, the government has warned travellers against exploiting Northern Ireland’s unique post-Brexit customs status to circumvent new import rules.

There are fears that smugglers – dubbed “Belfast bootleggers” – may take advantage of the absence of checks between the EU and Northern Ireland to move goods to Great Britain without paying duty and tax.

Northern Ireland is being treated as part of the EU for customs purposes, with checks in operation from Great Britain. But the UK government has confirmed nothing will change when travelling in the other direction to England, Wales or Scotland.

Anyone travelling from the EU to Northern Ireland, whether across the land border from the Republic or by air from Continental Europe, can continue to bring in whatever they wish.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-travel-smuggling-b1779593.html

Criminal gangs to target ferry routes from Ireland to traffic people and drugs into Scotland after Brexit

[URL="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/criminal-gangs-to-target-ferry-routes-from-ireland-to-traffic-people-and-drugs-into-scotland-after-brexit/ar-BB1cj6zC?ocid=mailsignout"]https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/criminal-gangs-to-target-ferry-routes-from-ireland-to-traffic-people-and-drugs-into-scotland-after-brexit/ar-BB1cj6zC?ocid=mailsignout[/URL]

Imagine what it would have been like had they not had 4.5 years to go through the detail of what they were proposing.

Taking Back control of our borders

 

[WATFORD zero]

I understand some old mates in the Tech industry are going to be busy next week.

Brexit 'big bang' to trigger tectonic trading rift in Europe

Europe will see its biggest transfer of share trading in more than two decades when stock exchanges open for business in 2021, with Brexit shifting its centre of gravity away from London.While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear.

“This is a big bang event and that is one of the things that the market hasn’t truly understood yet,” Alasdair Haynes, chief executive of London-based share trading platform Aquis Exchange, told Reuters. “This is literally everything moves on a specific day and we have got to pray to God that we don’t have some extraordinary event happen in the market that creates high volumes,” Haynes said.

While the landmark trade deal agreed last week set rules for industries such as fishing and agriculture, it did not cover Britain’s much larger finance sector, meaning automatic access to the EU’s financial markets comes to an end on Dec 31.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-markets-trading/brexit-big-bang-to-trigger-tectonic-trading-rift-in-europe-idUKKBN2930HS

Now I am as partial to a bit of smoked Mackerel as anyone but prioritising it over the UK financial markets when we were negotiating the deal

Not long to wait now to see the Benefits

 

[Randy McNob]

I understand some old mates in the Tech industry are going to be busy next week.

Brexit 'big bang' to trigger tectonic trading rift in Europe

Europe will see its biggest transfer of share trading in more than two decades when stock exchanges open for business in 2021, with Brexit shifting its centre of gravity away from London.While market players hope that years of preparations since Britain voted to leave the European Union means the transition of most euro-denominated assets like shares and derivatives out of the country will be relatively smooth, the long-term impact is unclear.

“This is a big bang event and that is one of the things that the market hasn’t truly understood yet,” Alasdair Haynes, chief executive of London-based share trading platform Aquis Exchange, told Reuters. “This is literally everything moves on a specific day and we have got to pray to God that we don’t have some extraordinary event happen in the market that creates high volumes,” Haynes said.

While the landmark trade deal agreed last week set rules for industries such as fishing and agriculture, it did not cover Britain’s much larger finance sector, meaning automatic access to the EU’s financial markets comes to an end on Dec 31.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-markets-trading/brexit-big-bang-to-trigger-tectonic-trading-rift-in-europe-idUKKBN2930HS

Now I am as partial to a bit of smoked Mackerel as anyone but prioritising it over the UK financial markets when we were negotiating the deal

Not long to wait now to see the Benefits

The BrexNF government are only selling Brexit to the remaining group of the public who still buy into the idea and believe we will return to the nostalgic halcyon days of the empire, and that some warped idea of democracy means a carte blanche instruction to torpedo the economy, decimate industry and any bottomless pit of economic damage. And that's why it doesn't matter whether it's a shit deal or not

 

[Pinkie Brown]

For any smugglers worried that the Government may actually introduce the promised border checks at Dover next summer (because they always keep promises), there is an alternative long term route, but I see the Government has already put in place measures to stop smuggling through Ireland/NI into Britain. They've told people that they shouldn't do it. That should work

Three days before the UK leaves the European Union, the government has warned travellers against exploiting Northern Ireland’s unique post-Brexit customs status to circumvent new import rules.

There are fears that smugglers – dubbed “Belfast bootleggers” – may take advantage of the absence of checks between the EU and Northern Ireland to move goods to Great Britain without paying duty and tax.

Northern Ireland is being treated as part of the EU for customs purposes, with checks in operation from Great Britain. But the UK government has confirmed nothing will change when travelling in the other direction to England, Wales or Scotland.

Anyone travelling from the EU to Northern Ireland, whether across the land border from the Republic or by air from Continental Europe, can continue to bring in whatever they wish.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-northern-ireland-eu-travel-smuggling-b1779593.html

Criminal gangs to target ferry routes from Ireland to traffic people and drugs into Scotland after Brexit

[URL="https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/criminal-gangs-to-target-ferry-routes-from-ireland-to-traffic-people-and-drugs-into-scotland-after-brexit/ar-BB1cj6zC?ocid=mailsignout"]https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/criminal-gangs-to-target-ferry-routes-from-ireland-to-traffic-people-and-drugs-into-scotland-after-brexit/ar-BB1cj6zC?ocid=mailsignout[/URL]

Imagine what it would have been like had they not had 4.5 years to go through the detail of what they were proposing.

Taking Back control of our borders

Yep. The Tories internal market concept turned out to be all wind and noise, playing to the audience plus attempting to call the EU bluff. Was doomed to fail. They eventually saw the bigger picture, partly as they knew all along a no deal situation was 'project reality' plus with President Biden looming, any jeopardising of the GFA would have consequences for them across the Atlantic. As you correctly state, smugglers have effectively a back door route into the UK. Physical checks onto the British mainland will be politically unpalatable. They'll live with a few unscrupulous hauliers bringing back a mountain of Golden Virginia into Scotland via a drop off in Ireland or those private travellers returning to Belfast from an EU country by plane.

Northern Ireland is effectively a de facto member of the EU under this arrangement. It's notable the DUP haven't been overly vocal about the new arrangements. Partly because they overplayed their hand with Theresa May and are a busted flush and partly because deep down they know the new arrangements work rather well for Northern Ireland. For ideological reasons they will never openly state this. They'll be random complaints, but it'll be political show for their supporters.

 

[WATFORD zero]

And for those who think that Johnson has 'got Brexit done', a little investigation of the published deal highlights just how much still has to be negotiated. Maybe someone who knew what they voted for could enlighten us as to what is going to happen to these areas


1. Mind the gap(s)

Let’s start with what isn’t in the full agreement: The political declarations, which one trade expert described as “an overflow graveyard of ambition." These make it clear that the U.K. and EU will be locked in trade talks for the foreseeable future.

The declarations do not have the same legal clout as the main full-fat treaty, but they are important as they help define a shared understanding of what some terms within the treaty mean.

For example, the political declarations published on December 26 cover subsidy controls, offering specific examples of instances where state aid might be acceptable. They also touch on tax regimes; a sensitive issue because EU officials were concerned about the U.K. slashing corporate taxes, for instance. There is also a declaration on haulers.

The declarations don't cover everything, however. A case in point: Tax is mentioned in the deal, and in a declaration, but the definition is fairly vague. There's a clause that’s known as a standstill clause, supposedly noting parties' standards at this present time as a sort of watermark. But there doesn’t seem to be a particular dispute settlement arrangement for this area. Both sides wanted a degree of flexibility in this area, particularly as they grapple with issues such as taxing digital companies.


2. Financial services

As for financial services, the first area detailed in the declarations, this is not covered comprehensively in the full trade agreement.

Instead, the declarations include an agreement to try and reach a memorandum of understanding by March 2021 that might mean the two sides agree to recognize each other's rules, a process known as "equivalence," which would allow the finance industry to trade across the U.K. and EU border. There will be “transparency and appropriate dialogue in the process of adoption, suspension and withdrawal of equivalence decisions."

"This is obviously very important,” a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team said on Saturday. “I would imagine the Treasury will want to pick that up pretty early in the new year.”

This has long been a contentious issue. Financial services is a rare area where the U.K. has a clear competitive advantage over the EU. Meanwhile, the EU is seeking to onshore far more of its financial services activity, particularly in terms of bond trading and with contracts tied to the euro.

So far, equivalence decisions granted by the EU can be withdrawn at short notice, as Switzerland has discovered. This is off-putting for investors who will want legal certainty about the status of cross-border contracts. It’s also somewhat impractical or at least challenging for financial stability, given the volume of outstanding contracts between the two parties.

What little detail there is on financial services in the full trade agreement shows that there will be a great deal of segmentation and complexity for this sector: If a U.K.-based company wants to serve customers in an EU member country by setting up an office there, for example, its market access and regulation will vary from country to country.


3. Country-specific rules

As with lots of trade deals, there are frequent references to so-called "reservations" — areas with so-called mixed competencies, where some power lies with member states and some with the European Commission. Market access and regulation therefore need to be determined member state by member state.

For instance, anyone who doesn’t speak German will need a legal translation on implications for financial services from national reservations there. The same principle also applies in fields such as criminal records.


4. Professional services

One area that does merit comparison with other trade deals is professional services. The deal offers no more than the EU-Canada agreement in terms of Mutual Recognition of Professional Qualifications (MRPQs), which allow workers such as doctors, engineers and architects to work in member states other than where they qualified. So far, industry experts say, there have been no successful MRPQs arising from the Canada agreement.

"What [the deal] does is establish a process in which regulators and industry bodies can work with each other to establish MRPQs in the future," said a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team.

Like other parts of this deal, the scope on paper may end up differing from the nature of the implementation — having a trade mechanism written into a deal is very different from having something that industries can readily enact.

This was an area, the U.K. negotiator added, where EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier “always said we were trying to look for something like the single market.” However, “this is not like the single market,” they explained. Barnier would agree with that, one EU official said.

Access in the real world will depend largely on member states’ industry bodies and additional constraints on labor mobility. Architects are less protectionist than other industries, for instance, while accountancy can prove more thorny.


5. State aid

State aid proved very contentious during the negotiations, with the EU keen to ensure the U.K. couldn't use subsides to allow British business to undercut the bloc and the U.K. determined to set its own rules.

The resulting compromise is just one area where this isn't the end of the story — rapid work now needs to be done in order to make the agreement operational. Specifically, the U.K. needs to create a body to oversee its own subsidy control regime.

“David Frost has done well to negotiate broad overarching commitments on state aid, which give the U.K. discretion on how it wants to set up its own subsidy control regime,” said Alexander Rose, lawyer and director at law firm DWF. “However, the government urgently needs to publish details of this new U.K. regime, because it has already legislated to remove EU state aid law with effect from 11 p.m., 31 December 2020.”

There’s also a carve-out within the deal that allows for exceptions to state aid rules, Rose noted, provided the U.K. parliament or the Council of the European Union approves the money. It’s rarely been used as an existing power for the Council, but it’s important that the U.K. has a power that mirrors it.

This kind of arrangement is new and one where historical examples won't prove very insightful. The outcomes of the first few fights will set the direction, a person familiar with the legal advice the U.K. government received during the trade talks said.

That appears to tally with the view of the U.K. negotiating team: "The state aid provisions are quite specific. They enable two completely different systems to operate but designed to accomplish rather similar things in the sense that there's a set of broad principles that are agreed between us,” they said. “Some bits of the subsidy policy arrangements are subject to arbitration in a particular way others are not. It's one of the tailored bits given the sensitivity of it."


6. Friction for flexibility

In some areas, the U.K. has accepted great friction for trade with the EU in order to allow itself the flexibility to strike deals with other parts of the world. Agriculture is a good example, according to a person familiar with Britain's other trade negotiations.

The issue of so-called "geographical indications," rules designed to protect the quality and reputation of foodstuffs produced in a particular region, appears to have been pushed to the side for a later date. Beyond provisions included within the Withdrawal Agreement, the divorce deal Britain struck with the EU last year which stated both sides could take "reasonable endeavors" to protect these rules, how this will work in practice has been left very vague in the final trade deal.

The two sides also won't recognize each other's system of rules designed to protect humans, animals and plants from diseases and pests. This means British farmers wanting to export to the EU would need things like vet certifications which weren't needed when the U.K. was an EU member. The same goes for EU farmers exporting into Britain. The checks for Great Britain will not include Northern Ireland, which will continue to follow EU rules.

Some British farming lobbyists said this meant they faced greater barriers than traders from New Zealand.

"Both sides can decide their own rules, that was sort of fundamental for us, but there are sort of two autonomous processes in which we can look at each others' rules and if we wish sort of unilaterally relax barriers to them or [do this] in a coordinated way," a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team said.


7. Standards

There are some substantial points in the deal covering mutual recognition of standards, rules that allow one regulator’s rubber-stamp to carry clout in the other’s jurisdiction. But while this deal goes beyond World Trade Organization rules on standards in some areas, there will be considerable non-tariff barriers for many industries.

An annex on medicinal products, for instance, sets out an agreement on mutual recognition of inspections and good manufacturing practice — a key demand of the pharmaceutical industry. This avoids doubling up on processes for the two markets.

The annex also states that with regard to medicinal products, the U.K. and EU will “endeavour to consult one another, as permitted by their respective law, on proposals to introduce significant changes to technical regulations or inspection procedures.” It goes on to say that the two will “endeavor to cooperate with a view to strengthening, developing and promoting the adoption and implementation of internationally agreed scientific or technical guidelines.”

The text also agrees to share information on health risks, such as pandemics, and allows for ad hoc access to the EU’s Early Warning and Response System, a tool that allows member countries to share information on public health threats.

Aviation also recognizes some certificates issued by each parties’ agencies.

But there are areas, such as chemical regulation and data sharing, where the deal falls far short of such collaboration. As an EU member, the U.K. invested in the bloc's REACH database for chemicals, but it will lose its access from 2021.

Consumer goods standards may also have less coverage than the EU-Canada deal, however. There doesn’t appear to be recognition of one another’s many testing bodies.


8. Phasing in rules

There is at least one win for the car industry: a six-year phase-in period for rules-of-origin requirements covering electric cars.

Carmakers such as Toyota and Nissan wanted to avoid a cliff-edge on rules of origin. These are rules which determine how much of a product must come from a particular nation. Manufacturers wanted a transition period to adjust to any new system.

"That's what they wanted and that's what we have secured,” said a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team.

Under the deal, a maximum of 60 percent of the content in finished electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid models and conventional hybrid models can come from outside the EU or U.K. by the end of 2023 to qualify for tariff-free trade. That should then be reduced to 55 percent by the end of 2026.

From 2027, that should be reduced again to 45 percent, although both sides agreed to review the final level in four years’ time. Those talks will cover the availability of “sufficient and suitable originating materials” along with the “balance between supply and demand,” according to the text.


9. Visas and labor mobility

Ending freedom of movement was a key issue for Brexiteers in the U.K.'s 2016 EU referendum and that has been achieved by this deal.

For some professions, however, the ability to work in another country temporarily is important, something recognized in the deal with a list that allows specified occupations visa-free travel for 90 days.

But a wide range of industries, including sports professionals, artists and musicians, do not appear on the list and this is likely to be tested by lawyers before too long.

"Somebody is going to be caught, most likely in rugby teams who will be traveling just two weeks after this starts," said Tim O'Connor, a lawyer and rugby writer.

Temporary "passports for goods" — known as carnets — used by those such as musicians and sportspeople moving their gear will be costly and demand extensive paperwork.


10. What if the two sides disagree on implementation?

For a start, many bodies will need to be set up to oversee collaboration on the agreement between the two sides.

Some sections of the deal have their own dispute resolution mechanisms, but some don't. There are hosts of exceptions that trade lawyers are presently puzzling over. A rough guide would be to assume a row in many instances would trigger a consultation process, if that fails an arbitration panel, and should that also fail the imposition of some tariffs. That's not unusual in trade agreements.

Arbitration panels are made up of lawyers, subjects specialists, and often judges.

The deal allows for rebalancing measures in some instances, and like all trade for WTO members, both sides can resort to that as a forum for resolving some rows.

For instance, should all the steps of a dispute on fish fail, each party can lock the other out of their waters. It's helpful, one trade expert said, to think of each area as a potential crime with a bespoke punishment. As is standard in such deals, there's a 12-month termination clause that either side can trigger.

https://londondaily.com/10-key-details-in-the-uk-eu-trade-deal

It's almost as if the deal is only half baked

 

[vegster]

And for those who think that Johnson has 'got Brexit done', a little investigation of the published deal highlights just how much still has to be negotiated. Maybe someone who knew what they voted for could enlighten us as to what is going to happen to these areas


1. Mind the gap(s)

Let’s start with what isn’t in the full agreement: The political declarations, which one trade expert described as “an overflow graveyard of ambition." These make it clear that the U.K. and EU will be locked in trade talks for the foreseeable future.

The declarations do not have the same legal clout as the main full-fat treaty, but they are important as they help define a shared understanding of what some terms within the treaty mean.

For example, the political declarations published on December 26 cover subsidy controls, offering specific examples of instances where state aid might be acceptable. They also touch on tax regimes; a sensitive issue because EU officials were concerned about the U.K. slashing corporate taxes, for instance. There is also a declaration on haulers.

The declarations don't cover everything, however. A case in point: Tax is mentioned in the deal, and in a declaration, but the definition is fairly vague. There's a clause that’s known as a standstill clause, supposedly noting parties' standards at this present time as a sort of watermark. But there doesn’t seem to be a particular dispute settlement arrangement for this area. Both sides wanted a degree of flexibility in this area, particularly as they grapple with issues such as taxing digital companies.


2. Financial services

As for financial services, the first area detailed in the declarations, this is not covered comprehensively in the full trade agreement.

Instead, the declarations include an agreement to try and reach a memorandum of understanding by March 2021 that might mean the two sides agree to recognize each other's rules, a process known as "equivalence," which would allow the finance industry to trade across the U.K. and EU border. There will be “transparency and appropriate dialogue in the process of adoption, suspension and withdrawal of equivalence decisions."

"This is obviously very important,” a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team said on Saturday. “I would imagine the Treasury will want to pick that up pretty early in the new year.”

This has long been a contentious issue. Financial services is a rare area where the U.K. has a clear competitive advantage over the EU. Meanwhile, the EU is seeking to onshore far more of its financial services activity, particularly in terms of bond trading and with contracts tied to the euro.

So far, equivalence decisions granted by the EU can be withdrawn at short notice, as Switzerland has discovered. This is off-putting for investors who will want legal certainty about the status of cross-border contracts. It’s also somewhat impractical or at least challenging for financial stability, given the volume of outstanding contracts between the two parties.

What little detail there is on financial services in the full trade agreement shows that there will be a great deal of segmentation and complexity for this sector: If a U.K.-based company wants to serve customers in an EU member country by setting up an office there, for example, its market access and regulation will vary from country to country.


3. Country-specific rules

As with lots of trade deals, there are frequent references to so-called "reservations" — areas with so-called mixed competencies, where some power lies with member states and some with the European Commission. Market access and regulation therefore need to be determined member state by member state.

For instance, anyone who doesn’t speak German will need a legal translation on implications for financial services from national reservations there. The same principle also applies in fields such as criminal records.


4. Professional services

One area that does merit comparison with other trade deals is professional services. The deal offers no more than the EU-Canada agreement in terms of Mutual Recognition of Professional Qualifications (MRPQs), which allow workers such as doctors, engineers and architects to work in member states other than where they qualified. So far, industry experts say, there have been no successful MRPQs arising from the Canada agreement.

"What [the deal] does is establish a process in which regulators and industry bodies can work with each other to establish MRPQs in the future," said a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team.

Like other parts of this deal, the scope on paper may end up differing from the nature of the implementation — having a trade mechanism written into a deal is very different from having something that industries can readily enact.

This was an area, the U.K. negotiator added, where EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier “always said we were trying to look for something like the single market.” However, “this is not like the single market,” they explained. Barnier would agree with that, one EU official said.

Access in the real world will depend largely on member states’ industry bodies and additional constraints on labor mobility. Architects are less protectionist than other industries, for instance, while accountancy can prove more thorny.


5. State aid

State aid proved very contentious during the negotiations, with the EU keen to ensure the U.K. couldn't use subsides to allow British business to undercut the bloc and the U.K. determined to set its own rules.

The resulting compromise is just one area where this isn't the end of the story — rapid work now needs to be done in order to make the agreement operational. Specifically, the U.K. needs to create a body to oversee its own subsidy control regime.

“David Frost has done well to negotiate broad overarching commitments on state aid, which give the U.K. discretion on how it wants to set up its own subsidy control regime,” said Alexander Rose, lawyer and director at law firm DWF. “However, the government urgently needs to publish details of this new U.K. regime, because it has already legislated to remove EU state aid law with effect from 11 p.m., 31 December 2020.”

There’s also a carve-out within the deal that allows for exceptions to state aid rules, Rose noted, provided the U.K. parliament or the Council of the European Union approves the money. It’s rarely been used as an existing power for the Council, but it’s important that the U.K. has a power that mirrors it.

This kind of arrangement is new and one where historical examples won't prove very insightful. The outcomes of the first few fights will set the direction, a person familiar with the legal advice the U.K. government received during the trade talks said.

That appears to tally with the view of the U.K. negotiating team: "The state aid provisions are quite specific. They enable two completely different systems to operate but designed to accomplish rather similar things in the sense that there's a set of broad principles that are agreed between us,” they said. “Some bits of the subsidy policy arrangements are subject to arbitration in a particular way others are not. It's one of the tailored bits given the sensitivity of it."


6. Friction for flexibility

In some areas, the U.K. has accepted great friction for trade with the EU in order to allow itself the flexibility to strike deals with other parts of the world. Agriculture is a good example, according to a person familiar with Britain's other trade negotiations.

The issue of so-called "geographical indications," rules designed to protect the quality and reputation of foodstuffs produced in a particular region, appears to have been pushed to the side for a later date. Beyond provisions included within the Withdrawal Agreement, the divorce deal Britain struck with the EU last year which stated both sides could take "reasonable endeavors" to protect these rules, how this will work in practice has been left very vague in the final trade deal.

The two sides also won't recognize each other's system of rules designed to protect humans, animals and plants from diseases and pests. This means British farmers wanting to export to the EU would need things like vet certifications which weren't needed when the U.K. was an EU member. The same goes for EU farmers exporting into Britain. The checks for Great Britain will not include Northern Ireland, which will continue to follow EU rules.

Some British farming lobbyists said this meant they faced greater barriers than traders from New Zealand.

"Both sides can decide their own rules, that was sort of fundamental for us, but there are sort of two autonomous processes in which we can look at each others' rules and if we wish sort of unilaterally relax barriers to them or [do this] in a coordinated way," a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team said.


7. Standards

There are some substantial points in the deal covering mutual recognition of standards, rules that allow one regulator’s rubber-stamp to carry clout in the other’s jurisdiction. But while this deal goes beyond World Trade Organization rules on standards in some areas, there will be considerable non-tariff barriers for many industries.

An annex on medicinal products, for instance, sets out an agreement on mutual recognition of inspections and good manufacturing practice — a key demand of the pharmaceutical industry. This avoids doubling up on processes for the two markets.

The annex also states that with regard to medicinal products, the U.K. and EU will “endeavour to consult one another, as permitted by their respective law, on proposals to introduce significant changes to technical regulations or inspection procedures.” It goes on to say that the two will “endeavor to cooperate with a view to strengthening, developing and promoting the adoption and implementation of internationally agreed scientific or technical guidelines.”

The text also agrees to share information on health risks, such as pandemics, and allows for ad hoc access to the EU’s Early Warning and Response System, a tool that allows member countries to share information on public health threats.

Aviation also recognizes some certificates issued by each parties’ agencies.

But there are areas, such as chemical regulation and data sharing, where the deal falls far short of such collaboration. As an EU member, the U.K. invested in the bloc's REACH database for chemicals, but it will lose its access from 2021.

Consumer goods standards may also have less coverage than the EU-Canada deal, however. There doesn’t appear to be recognition of one another’s many testing bodies.


8. Phasing in rules

There is at least one win for the car industry: a six-year phase-in period for rules-of-origin requirements covering electric cars.

Carmakers such as Toyota and Nissan wanted to avoid a cliff-edge on rules of origin. These are rules which determine how much of a product must come from a particular nation. Manufacturers wanted a transition period to adjust to any new system.

"That's what they wanted and that's what we have secured,” said a senior member of the U.K. negotiating team.

Under the deal, a maximum of 60 percent of the content in finished electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid models and conventional hybrid models can come from outside the EU or U.K. by the end of 2023 to qualify for tariff-free trade. That should then be reduced to 55 percent by the end of 2026.

From 2027, that should be reduced again to 45 percent, although both sides agreed to review the final level in four years’ time. Those talks will cover the availability of “sufficient and suitable originating materials” along with the “balance between supply and demand,” according to the text.


9. Visas and labor mobility

Ending freedom of movement was a key issue for Brexiteers in the U.K.'s 2016 EU referendum and that has been achieved by this deal.

For some professions, however, the ability to work in another country temporarily is important, something recognized in the deal with a list that allows specified occupations visa-free travel for 90 days.

But a wide range of industries, including sports professionals, artists and musicians, do not appear on the list and this is likely to be tested by lawyers before too long.

"Somebody is going to be caught, most likely in rugby teams who will be traveling just two weeks after this starts," said Tim O'Connor, a lawyer and rugby writer.

Temporary "passports for goods" — known as carnets — used by those such as musicians and sportspeople moving their gear will be costly and demand extensive paperwork.


10. What if the two sides disagree on implementation?

For a start, many bodies will need to be set up to oversee collaboration on the agreement between the two sides.

Some sections of the deal have their own dispute resolution mechanisms, but some don't. There are hosts of exceptions that trade lawyers are presently puzzling over. A rough guide would be to assume a row in many instances would trigger a consultation process, if that fails an arbitration panel, and should that also fail the imposition of some tariffs. That's not unusual in trade agreements.

Arbitration panels are made up of lawyers, subjects specialists, and often judges.

The deal allows for rebalancing measures in some instances, and like all trade for WTO members, both sides can resort to that as a forum for resolving some rows.

For instance, should all the steps of a dispute on fish fail, each party can lock the other out of their waters. It's helpful, one trade expert said, to think of each area as a potential crime with a bespoke punishment. As is standard in such deals, there's a 12-month termination clause that either side can trigger.

https://londondaily.com/10-key-details-in-the-uk-eu-trade-deal

It's almost as if the deal is only half baked

The Daily Express are going the other way....

" £900 BN"

" Staggering value of 62 trade deals"

" UK heads for boom as we" Seize Opportunities "

So, its all a win then? If its in The Express, what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I found a Brexiteer who, weirdly, didn't know exactly what he was voting for

[tweet]1343707078368620549[/tweet]

O Well.

I see people saying blame the likes of Farage etc and not him.

Not a chance, his choice, his mess.

 

[T.G]

Last few fannys on here having their final love puff
Before 1.1 .2021
Regards
DF

How disappointed you will be when after 1.1.21 nothing much changes other than things just get a little bit more shit. It really will be very dull this Brexit bollocks