[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

A portable cabin and Google Translate: Life on the Brexit haulage frontline

https://news.sky.com/story/a-portab...1u3S6capH6PP1X9qjbCgrZB-rXcIwoSKKbQBiETuVqvdc

13,500 trucks a day, 270m customs decs a year. What could possibly go wrong?

Should be cool, had 4 years+ to prepare...

 

[daveinplzen]

A portable cabin and Google Translate: Life on the Brexit haulage frontline

https://news.sky.com/story/a-portab...1u3S6capH6PP1X9qjbCgrZB-rXcIwoSKKbQBiETuVqvdc

13,500 trucks a day, 270m customs decs a year. What could possibly go wrong?

Should be cool, had 4 years+ to prepare...

Especially now that the port expansion plans have been completed and IT infrastructure has been tested and looking good. Oh wait... Ah **** it, there's still a month to go. Just have to believe!

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Ah the EU tag team have turned up , marvelous scenes ,any news on Boris climbing down today ?
Regards
DF

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Ah, the old conspiracy of experts trope. One expert gets something wrong so let's imply that your average expert knows nothing more than a Kentucky pick-up driver or an English football forum shouter. The easiest, laziest argument of them all.

I am not clever enough to say I agree or disagree with everything the OBR (established by the Tory Party in 2010) says but given its reputation I tend to give its statements more credence than I give ppf's for example, or yours, or the Daily Express's.

A couple of independant assessments of the OBR below. If you can find a forecast that contrasts with the OBR's perhaps you could post a few details about the authors' background.

According to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Transparency Evaluation for the UK, the depth and breadth of the economic and fiscal analysis published by the OBR “can be considered as best-practice, and could be used as a benchmark by other advanced countries”. “While it is still relatively early in its track record, the OBR’s forecasting record indicates a lower degree of bias than under the Treasury forecasting regime.”

European Fiscal Board of the European Commission argued in its 2018 Annual Report that the OBR has retained “a high degree of public trust in its ability to provide objective assessments of the macroeconomic outlook and public finances”.

Ah, the old strawman reply combined with an appeal to authority fallacy. HM Treasury had a long track record of failed often biased forecasts (see project fear) which was one reason why the OBR was set up. The fact that the OBR is more independent or deemed trustworthy by other institutions with a dubious forecasting record is irrelevant when assessing the OBR's accuracy in forecasting. As the head of the OBR said himself “forecasts are always wrong” Well done for doing a Wiki search though.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...recasting-record-office-budget-responsibility

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/pu...id-the-obr-get-its-fiscal-forecasts-so-wrong/

https://www.ft.com/content/d140f26e-f7b9-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Ah, the old strawman reply combined with an appeal to authority fallacy. HM Treasury had a long track record of failed often biased forecasts (see project fear) which was one reason why the OBR was set up. The fact that the OBR is more independent or deemed trustworthy by other institutions with a dubious forecasting record is irrelevant when assessing the OBR's accuracy in forecasting. As the head of the OBR said himself “forecasts are always wrong” Well done for doing a Wiki search though.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...recasting-record-office-budget-responsibility

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/pu...id-the-obr-get-its-fiscal-forecasts-so-wrong/

https://www.ft.com/content/d140f26e-f7b9-11e8-af46-2022a0b02a6c

Your congratulations to me on knowing how to do a Wiki search are gratefully accepted. Your foray into evidence gathering was less successful - one of your links was over eight years old and the other was behind a paywall. As it happens, they weren't needed. I accept that forecasts are not always right but was wondering if you had any evidence that disputed this one from an organisation you agree is unbiased. As things stand it seems to me that you haven't.

PS as you are a bit of an expert on the Wiki front can you tell me the background when the head of the OBR said that forecasts are always wrong? And what has the setting up of the OBR got to do with Johnson's Project Fear?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Your congratulations to me on knowing how to do a Wiki search are gratefully accepted. Your foray into evidence gathering was less successful - one of your links was over eight years old and the other was behind a paywall. As it happens, they weren't needed. I accept that forecasts are not always right but was wondering if you had any evidence that disputed this one from an organisation you agree is unbiased. As things stand it seems to me that you haven't.

PS as you are a bit of an expert on the Wiki front can you tell me the background when the head of the OBR said that forecasts are always wrong? And what has the setting up of the OBR got to do with Johnson's Project Fear?

You are very welcome, acknowledging your limitations is the first step to increased understanding.

Obviously assessing the reliability of forecasting means going back more than a few years so your first criticism is invalid. Bizarrely you fail to recognise even the head of the the organisation you claim is predicting accurately, the OBR, acknowledges all forecasts are innacurate. To repeat for the hard of thinking .. being supposedly unbiased doesn't necessarily make your predictions more likely to be accurate.

To conclude you are just another victim of conformation bias with the critical thinking skills of a lemon... which admittedly puts you at the top end of the #team EU crew on this thread



Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

 

[rogersix]

Both POTG and JCFG think I'm on the dole, pure coincidence both uniquely hold this view

where do you sign on?

do you know the plum, fairy?

 

[Randy McNob]

[tweet]1331721720433168390[/tweet]

 

[WATFORD zero]

You are very welcome, acknowledging your limitations is the first step to increased understanding.

Obviously assessing the reliability of forecasting means going back more than a few years so your first criticism is invalid. Bizarrely you fail to recognise even the head of the the organisation you claim is predicting accurately, the OBR, acknowledges all forecasts are innacurate. To repeat for the hard of thinking .. being supposedly unbiased doesn't necessarily make your predictions more likely to be accurate.

To conclude you are just another victim of conformation bias with the critical thinking skills of a lemon... which admittedly puts you at the top end of the #team EU crew on this thread



Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

I do feel congratulations are in order.

Nearly a week after I explained how, you've managed to figure out how to sign into two accounts at once.

Now we're getting somewhere

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I do feel congratulations are in order.

Nearly a week after I explained how, you've managed to figure out how to sign into two accounts at once.

Now we're getting somewhere

You are either severely paranoid or a grade A moron/liar (my bets on option two). Fancy a £100 bet to REMF where you prove I have more than one account?

This is the bit where you sh*t yourself and attempt to come up with some pitiful excuse why you won't contact [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]/anyMod to find out you are wrong.

 

[Is it PotG?]

You are either severely paranoid or a grade A moron/liar (my bet's on option two)

I know which my money's on.

He's even sucked a few others in too.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I know which my money's on.

He's even sucked a few others in too.

Indeed. Gullible bunch ....

 

[WATFORD zero]

You are either severely paranoid or a grade A moron/liar (my bets on option two). Fancy a £100 bet to REMF where you prove I have more than one account?

This is the bit where you sh*t yourself and attempt to come up with some pitiful excuse why you won't contact [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION]/anyMod to find out you are wrong.

Now I can imagine that if you had no job, no partner and no social life, that posting constantly on NSC for 14 hours at a time may seem attractive, but I'm really not sure it's healthy

I'm sorry I can't stay, but I think that an hour of watching I'm a celebrity will prove more intellectually challenging. Have fun, the pair of you and try not to fall out

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Ŷ

You are very welcome, acknowledging your limitations is the first step to increased understanding.

Obviously assessing the reliability of forecasting means going back more than a few years so your first criticism is invalid. Bizarrely you fail to recognise even the head of the the organisation you claim is predicting accurately, the OBR, acknowledges all forecasts are innacurate. To repeat for the hard of thinking .. being supposedly unbiased doesn't necessarily make your predictions more likely to be accurate.

To conclude you are just another victim of conformation bias with the critical thinking skills of a lemon... which admittedly puts you at the top end of the #team EU crew on this thread



Sent from my SM-G970F using Tapatalk

Your determination to be as patronising as possible has left you looking a bit daft. Even if your third sentence wasn't a grammatical car crash it would still make no sense. I simply wanted to know the background to Robert Chote saying that all forecasts are wrong. You know, the circumstances and context, that sort of thing. Nothing controversial.

I guess you've decided to swerve the project fear question. No problem. Failing to answer questions is very common among Brexiteers. Most of you do it. Is this what you mean by conformation bias?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Now I can imagine that if you had no job, no partner and no social life, that posting constantly on NSC for 14 hours at a time may seem attractive, but I'm really not sure it's healthy

I'm sorry I can't stay, but I think that an hour of watching I'm a celebrity will prove more intellectually challenging. Have fun, the pair of you and try not to fall out

Oh what a surprise ... grade A moron/liar runs away

 

[Is it PotG?]

Now I can imagine that if you had no job, no partner and no social life, that posting constantly on NSC for 14 hours at a time may seem attractive, but I'm really not sure it's healthy

I'm sorry I can't stay, but I think that an hour of watching I'm a celebrity will prove more intellectually challenging. Have fun, the pair of you and try not to fall out

Cock.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Ŷ

Your determination to be as patronising as possible has left you looking a bit daft. Even if your third sentence wasn't a grammatical car crash it would still make no sense. I simply wanted to know the background to Robert Chote saying that all forecasts are wrong. You know, the circumstances and context, that sort of thing. Nothing controversial.

I guess you've decided to swerve the project fear question. No problem. Failing to answer questions is very common among Brexiteers. Most of you do it. Is this what you mean by conformation bias?

Fully payed up member of #TeamEU crew complaining about being patronised priceless! One of your lot has already been owned on NSC tonight best not make it two .

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Any news on Boris climbing down and making excuses on Monday
Regards
DF

 

[Billy the Fish]

Blimey, I thought it was bad enough that people were still bleating about Brexit on a football forum. These nutters make NSC's EU fanboys look sane!

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-toilet-of-england-by-anti-brexit-protesters

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Blimey, I thought it was bad enough that people were still bleating about Brexit on a football forum. These nutters make NSC's EU fanboys look sane!

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...d-toilet-of-england-by-anti-brexit-protesters

Bad losers that need flushing down the pan
Regards
DF