[Politics] Brexit

[pb21]

People are talking about potential ammendments Labour may bring during the WAB reading (customs union etc).

Presumably the ERG could also suggest ammendments too, which may then be backed by the government?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

But Boris’ Brexit with a ‘deal’ is *no deal*.

The reason that the ERG are on board with this deal is that it gives them the opportunity to get their no deal once the second phase of negotiations conclude next year (Letwin scuppered their original plan). They still trust Boris to deliver a No Deal. The support of the ERG will soon disappear once the No Deal trap door is removed from the withdrawal agreement this week. Then where does that leave the deal?

As stated previously, *no deal now* is different from *no deal in the next phase*.

If this withdrawal agreement is passed, then the NI protocol becomes a fact set in stone. At that point we have not wrecked the Good Friday Agreement in the way that would cause the US Congress to veto any UK-US trade deal.

So, *no deal in the next phase* means no trade deal with the EU, which is unsustainable for too long anyway. It is *no deal ( but without the Irish border problems)*.

It gives us a year to nail down interim trade deals with the US and elsewhere. It gives us a year to improve the issues at Dover.

Believe it or not only 1 or 2 ERG loons actually want *no deal* over an EU FTA.

Now I disagree with the ERG in that they mostly reckon that the FTA should be Canada Minus, whereas I think it should be Switzerland Plus - but that is for the future and even Canada Minus could be later made into Switzerland Plus.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]1185881510244749313[/tweet]

 

[Mental Lental]

Likewise . . . his voting record is appalling on so many levels. I F ing hate it when he turns up at the farmers market. Smug git, gurning in a jumper and twill shirt, he looks so punchable. It's extremely tempting.

Farmers market you say? Gotta be some spare eggs lying around.....

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

As stated previously, *no deal now* is different from *no deal in the next phase*.

If this withdrawal agreement is passed, then the NI protocol becomes a fact set in stone. At that point we have not wrecked the Good Friday Agreement in the way that would cause the US Congress to veto any UK-US trade deal.

So, *no deal in the next phase* means no trade deal with the EU, which is unsustainable for too long anyway. It is *no deal ( but without the Irish border problems)*.

It gives us a year to nail down interim trade deals with the US and elsewhere. It gives us a year to improve the issues at Dover.

Believe it or not only 1 or 2 ERG loons actually want *no deal* over an EU FTA.

Now I disagree with the ERG in that they mostly reckon that the FTA should be Canada Minus, whereas I think it should be Switzerland Plus - but that is for the future and even Canada Minus could be later made into Switzerland Plus.

I’d be up for Switzerland plus. The Switzerland bit would give the UK freedom of movement of people, goods, services and Labour and the Schengen. I’d be bang up for this. But you say plus....so what will we get on top? This will be an astonishing deal, almost EU plus.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Then spends the rest of the day name calling with Clamp (pretty unedifying for both)


But not for me...I find it hilarious....like two children in the playground. ( No...actually...thats being disrespectful to schoolchildren )

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I’d be up for Switzerland plus. The Switzerland bit would give the UK freedom of movement of people, goods, services and Labour and the Schengen. I’d be bang up for this. But you say plus....so what will we get on top?

Switzerland are currently trying to give their existing deal a 'plus' by improving banking service access. I'd take that plus for a start, but it's all a negotiation. I wasn't talking about Schengen being in our deal specifically - more a pre-2008 Switzerland deal, but of course it is possible.

 

[ManOfSussex]

there was and they did. economics was not the reason a lot of people voted.

I agree with you on that. Brexit at any cost and people who voted for it are perfectly happy to be poorer and for the country to be poorer as a result of Brexit, particularly if they're a 'I'm alright Jack' sort currently.

(One thing though - next time there's a thread about Scottish independence, you should try and a find a more persuasive argument than just the economics though. It would make you, as a leave voter, look less hypocritical/a patronising little Englander who knows what's best for them. Personally I'm now sadly resigned to the union ending, but when it does I do hope the Scots, or 'Jocks' 'Scotch' and 'sweaties' as some like to refer to them, take care of Faslane and Coulport appropriately, meaning Little England ends up with no nuclear deterrent. The chastening effect of being the emperor with no clothes and empire, as well as the P5 UN Security Council member for with no bomb, will do a lot of leave voters the world of good.)

 

[Stat Brother]

I agree with you on that. Brexit at any cost and people who voted for it are perfectly happy to be poorer and for the country to be poorer as a result of Brexit, particularly if they're a 'I'm alright Jack' sort currently.

(One thing though - next time there's a thread about Scottish independence, you should try and a find a more persuasive argument than just the economics though. It would make you, as a leave voter, look less hypocritical/a patronising little Englander who knows what's best for them. Personally I'm now sadly resigned to the union ending, but when it does I do hope the Scots, or 'Jocks' 'Scotch' and 'sweaties' as some like to refer to them, take care of Faslane and Coulport appropriately, meaning Little England ends up with no nuclear deterrent. The chastening effect of being the emperor with no clothes and empire, as well as the P5 UN Security Council member for with no bomb, will do a lot of leave voters the world of good.)

Jocko's

 

[beorhthelm]

But Boris’ Brexit with a ‘deal’ is *no deal*.

The reason that the ERG are on board with this deal is that it gives them the opportunity to get their no deal once the second phase of negotiations conclude next year (Letwin scuppered their original plan). They still trust Boris to deliver a No Deal. The support of the ERG will soon disappear once the No Deal trap door is removed from the withdrawal agreement this week. Then where does that leave the deal?

this "delayed no deal" idea doesnt make sense. the deal is the same (more or less) as that May brought forward and we didn't hear this, why is it an issue now not in March? if the dark forces of the ERG wanted to manipulate a no deal, they'd have done so. instead Johnson got a reheated deal from EU, while damaging relations with DUP in process. those spinning this as a grand strategy to defer no deal are simply upset Johnson didnt make a complete hash of it (so far).

 

[Berty23]

Re ERG. Points made are correct. Without letwin they could have mucked about over the next 10 days and made it no deal by default.

As it is they will try to much about with trade deal and try for no deal.

This is such a mess and anyone in the media allowing “just get brexit done” to go unchallenged should be sacked. If all the ERG had voted for May’s deal then wouldn’t it have passed?

 

[Berty23]

this "delayed no deal" idea doesnt make sense. the deal is the same (more or less) as that May brought forward and we didn't hear this, why is it an issue now not in March? if the dark forces of the ERG wanted to manipulate a no deal, they'd have done so. instead Johnson got a reheated deal from EU, while damaging relations with DUP in process. those spinning this as a grand strategy to defer no deal are simply upset Johnson didnt make a complete hash of it (so far).

The customs union bit is very different to the May deal. It will mean we will have weaker links with Europe which is why all projections show it will have a far more damaging impact on the economy than the May deal which is worse than staying. I heard someone on the radio today say that the Bank of England support the deal so it can’t be bad, but they compared it to no deal!

The best deal is still Germany ++

 

[Motogull]

The ERG have played a blinder to get to this point after all the bungling by May etcs. Whether that was design or accident will not matter to them.

 

[Mo Gosfield]

Do you honestly think that if at the time of the 2016 Referendum Leave had come with a health warning "Brexit will make you 7% worse off" they would have got anywhere near 52%?

The government's own studies and their Operation Yellowhammer documents now tell us Brexit will be an economic disaster.

As opposed to other experts, including the WPC ( World Pensions Council ) and the World Bank who state that beyond short lived market volatility, the long term economic prospects of Britain remain high, notably in terms of country attractiveness and foreign direct investment ( FDI ) Risk experts are confident the UK economy will remain robust in the event of leaving the EU. ' The economic attractiveness of Britain will not go down ' ( DG of WPC )
The truth is......no one knows for sure.....not the Government....not Yellowhammer....not the WPC.....not the World Bank.....and not the rest of us. So called experts have got it wrong since time immemorial....it was going to be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro etc. People in this country no longer believe in opinion polls, no longer believe in so called economic experts and no longer believe in politicians. The referendum in 2016 was an anti-establishment vote. To most, it didn't matter if there was some economic downturn as a result. The older generation have lived through all that shit before. Years of lies and deceit. They saw it as a beginning. Tweak their noses and kick their arses to start with before eventually draining the swamp and starting to rebuild with voting and parliamentary reform.In their eyes the status quo had to be broken up and this was their opportunity. It wasn't about immigration queues or slogans on buses. It was about change.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The customs union bit is very different to the May deal. It will mean we will have weaker links with Europe which is why all projections show it will have a far more damaging impact on the economy than the May deal which is worse than staying. I heard someone on the radio today say that the Bank of England support the deal so it can’t be bad, but they compared it to no deal!

The best deal is still Germany ++

That is just a matter of opinion. I believe both Norway++ and Switzerland++ are better than Germany++.

If we remain in the EU on Germany++, it won't be the end of the world as such, but I'll sigh and reflect on what a wasted golden opportunity we have missed.

 

[beorhthelm]

The customs union bit is very different to the May deal. It will mean we will have weaker links with Europe which is why all projections show it will have a far more damaging impact on the economy than the May deal which is worse than staying. I heard someone on the radio today say that the Bank of England support the deal so it can’t be bad, but they compared it to no deal!

The best deal is still Germany ++

it isnt different regarding CU except for NI. links are the same during the transition, post transition is open to negotiation, and most changes are to the political declaration which is non-binding.

 

[Bakero]

It wasn't about immigration queues or slogans on buses. It was about change.

It was a bit about immigration- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_the_vote_in_favour_of_Brexit#Immigration

 

[ManOfSussex]

As opposed to other experts, including the WPC ( World Pensions Council ) and the World Bank who state that beyond short lived market volatility, the long term economic prospects of Britain remain high, notably in terms of country attractiveness and foreign direct investment ( FDI ) Risk experts are confident the UK economy will remain robust in the event of leaving the EU. ' The economic attractiveness of Britain will not go down ' ( DG of WPC )
The truth is......no one knows for sure.....not the Government....not Yellowhammer....not the WPC.....not the World Bank.....and not the rest of us. So called experts have got it wrong since time immemorial....it was going to be a disaster if we didn't join the Euro etc. People in this country no longer believe in opinion polls, no longer believe in so called economic experts and no longer believe in politicians. The referendum in 2016 was an anti-establishment vote. To most, it didn't matter if there was some economic downturn as a result. The older generation have lived through all that shit before. Years of lies and deceit. They saw it as a beginning. Tweak their noses and kick their arses to start with before eventually draining the swamp and starting to rebuild with voting and parliamentary reform.In their eyes the status quo had to be broken up and this was their opportunity. It wasn't about immigration queues or slogans on buses. It was about change.

What was so appealing to people on benefits, who voted leave after 6 years of austerity, about the Singapore model then and the members of the Conservative and Unionist Party who embrace it, who wanted this change you speak of for example? Or did Turkey's just vote for Christmas? (Not the 80 million Muslim, brown ones who were all moving here if we voted remain.)

 

[Baldseagull]

Your MP can propose legislation.

/Conversation.

MEP's, through votes in Parliament or Parliamentary Committees, can ask the Commission to bring forward proposals for new legislation or amendments to existing legislation. The Commission and the Parliament work together to make new law, it can't happen without MEP's consent.

 

[clapham_gull]

The ERG have played a blinder to get to this point after all the bungling by May etcs. Whether that was design or accident will not matter to them.

All they have done is:

1) Vote for a deal they didn't want in the past. They've actually ended up with a worse one.
2) Thrown the DUP under a bus.