[Politics] Brexit

[Eeyore]

There won't be an election until after the legislation has passed to prevent No Deal. If Johnson wants to run on a No Deal ticket and he wins a majority he can do what he wants, however I see nothing to suggest he would win a majority in an election. The Lib Dem resurgence is going to cost him big time in a lot of the seats Cameron won in 2015.

The Tories will win the next election.

All I want is Spitting Image back.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Just so I'm understanding this properly - if the rebels are expelled from the Tory party, doesn't that also trigger by-elections in the relevant constituencies?

Wouldn't that also run the risk of losing their majority even more?

Not belonging to a party doesn't trigger a by election.
They could be recalled by their own constituents if they get more than 10,000 signatures.

 

[beorhthelm]

I read earlier that even if the bill is passed tomorrow to force Johnson to rule out no deal, when the time comes for the 28 EU countries to vote on accepting our withdrawal deal he can (as we are still a member) use the UK veto to effectively reject his own government’s proposal, therefore forcing us out without a deal.

I didn’t really catch any of the details, but if this is the case why doesn’t he just do that if he’s so happy with no deal?

whoever said this hasnt read Article 50, quite explicit the leaving member take no part in agreeing the deal from the EU side.

 

[A1X]

The Tories will win the next election.

All I want is Spitting Image back.

Current polling suggests another hung Parliament. Indeed I saw a calculation based on the current rough figures that post-election Cons+DUP basically neck and neck with Lab+LD+Green+SNP. So we're right back where we started.

Frankly the only way out of this situation now is another referendum. An election will solve the square root of bugger all.

 

[theonlymikey]

That would be the already non-existent Tory majority after Philip Lee's defection this afternoon. Which also further brings into the equation of why call an election when you can sit back and let Boris Johnson stew in his own juices of incompetence. The Remain Alliance now basically have him by the balls.

Yeah, I meant minority...

It matters not as all common practice has left the building now.

The Labour Manifesto over Brexit will be easy. Likely promising a (hopefully legally binding) referendum to choose Remain or choose a palatable type of Brexit. And keep telling electorate BJ wants a no deal against their wishes.

Brexit and Tory split the rest and Labour will set up a minority government.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

 

[A1X]

[TWEET]1169004314087624705[/TWEET]

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

i honestly lost track, which way was the promise to have or not to have?
i dont understand the strategy anymore, it seems having commited to a cause of action to limit others actions, Johnson has limited his own options. unless this is calculation that Labour will lose more in a GE, possibly but i dont see Conservatives winning either.

He has ****ed it up completely. Spaffed it. Not that anyone knew what he thought he was going to achieve anyway, not least him. The big fat bullshitting twunt.

 

[A1X]

whoever said this hasnt read Article 50, quite explicit the leaving member take no part in agreeing the deal from the EU side.

Are you suggesting that people in the British press are ignorant of how the EU actually works?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

[TWEET]1169004314087624705[/TWEET]

Boris is making Corbyn look like a measured and thoughtful bloke. The voice of reason. And I have always held Corbyn in contempt. Christ, what HAVE the tories done to themselves ?

 

[drew]

There won't be an election until after the legislation has passed to prevent No Deal. If Johnson wants to run on a No Deal ticket and he wins a majority he can do what he wants, however I see nothing to suggest he would win a majority in an election. The Lib Dem resurgence is going to cost him big time in a lot of the seats Cameron won in 2015.

Don't forget the Brexit Party may still stand against Tories as they want a no deal brexit. That could further weaken the tories.

 

[beorhthelm]

Are you suggesting that people in the British press are ignorant of how the EU actually works?

if it was someone in the press, yes.

 

[Weststander]

Yeah, I meant minority...

It matters not as all common practice has left the building now.

The Labour Manifesto over Brexit will be easy. Likely promising a (hopefully legally binding) referendum to choose Remain or choose a palatable type of Brexit. And keep telling electorate BJ wants a no deal against their wishes.

Brexit and Tory split the rest and Labour will set up a minority government.

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

That’s pretty obvious, I’ve said for 3 years that Corbyn will never, ever win 326 seats at a UK general election. Has there been a non-Corbyn supporter who thought that he would? The Tories have been in power one way or another for 9 years, so naturally their time is up, fatigue from the electorate and anger from pro -EU Tories, will mean that Boris won’t get 326 seats either.

A deal will have to be done with the SNP who already have England over a barrel with the hugely advantageous Barnett Formula.

The winners from all this will be the SNP.

You heard it here first.

 

[schmunk]

I'm very happy about today's events - I no longer have a Tory MP.

 

[Pondicherry]

whoever said this hasnt read Article 50, quite explicit the leaving member take no part in agreeing the deal from the EU side.

I think it does.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

 

[Weststander]

A genuine surprise, away from the political bubble of here (the Albion catchment area), the favourite outcomes are no overall control or a Tory government.

Why no resurgent opposition heading for Downing Street, as there was in 1979 and 1997?

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm very happy about today's events - I no longer have a Tory MP.

"Independent Conservative" is my bet. Soames will probably stand and win, along with several others.

 

[Gwylan]

A genuine surprise, away from the political bubble of here (the Albion catchment area), the favourite outcomes are no overall control or a Tory government.

Why no resurgent opposition heading for Downing Street, as there was in 1979 and 1997?

I might have a little punt on Labour at those odds: 14-1 in a two-horse race is pretty decent.

Yes, they're behind in the polls but were a lot, lot further behind in 2017 and closed the gap significantly. Corbyn's not at best in the House but he's much happier campaigning while Johnson looks extremely uncomfortable when there's any pressure on him.

I think no overall majority is right but those Labour odds are tempting

 

[Gwylan]

A genuine surprise, away from the political bubble of here (the Albion catchment area), the favourite outcomes are no overall control or a Tory government.

Why no resurgent opposition heading for Downing Street, as there was in 1979 and 1997?

I might have a little punt on Labour at those odds: 14-1 in a two-horse race is pretty decent.

Yes, they're behind in the polls but were a lot, lot further behind in 2017 and closed the gap significantly. Corbyn's not at best in the House but he's much happier campaigning while Johnson looks extremely uncomfortable when there's any pressure on him.

I think no overall majority is right but those Labour odds are tempting

 

[beorhthelm]

I think it does.

The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

thats the withdrawal negotition covered. the suggestion was that if the EU has to unimously agree to the deal and the UK could, bizarely, veto their own deal. clause 4:

For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

the leaving member take no part in the discussion as part of the European Council.

 

[ManOfSussex]

"Independent Conservative" is my bet. Soames will probably stand and win, along with several others.

He said on Newsnight he won't be standing at the next election.