[Politics] Brexit

[Thunder Bolt]

The human cost of ending Freedom of Movement.

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And the lies that were told.

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[Baldseagull]

According to greater legal minds than mine, the U.K. has no legal obligations to pay a penny to the EU on Brexit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/04/uk-could-quit-eu-without-paying-a-penny-say-lords

I get the need for pragmatism though, so the £40bn of U.K. Taxpayers money that is due for return is probably tied up in the negation somehow, but we won’t see that money returned until 2054.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ank-eib-britain-alexander-stubb-a8023516.html

The EIB money plus our stake in EU assets is sizeable and should not be conflated with the payment we are making to the EU. We owe them nothing legally speaking. Sorry.

Are you truly expecting that in a no deal situation, we would pay nothing, and we would be getting our share of the EU estate?

 

[narly101]

I'll just leave this here;

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/poli...xiter-what-fking-planet-hes-on-20190111181236

 

[CHAPPERS]

I see BoJo is borrowing money from Lynton Crosy's firm, interest free.

 

[cunning fergus]

It's an interesting story, but Poland signed up to the EU laws in the same way that football clubs sign up to FA laws. It isn't the 'EU' who are is taking punitive action, as such, as the vote in Parliament required all countries to agree, with Hungary already saying it would veto it. 28 different countries have got to agree such an action so the chances, as that article said, are very slim. The EU is not a faceless entity but a group of countries, so it cannot just unilaterally punish another country.

It's an interesting story, but Poland signed up to the EU laws in the same way that football clubs sign up to FA laws. It isn't the 'EU' who are is taking punitive action, as such, as the vote in Parliament required all countries to agree, with Hungary already saying it would veto it. 28 different countries have got to agree such an action so the chances, as that article said, are very slim. The EU is not a faceless entity but a group of countries, so it cannot just unilaterally punish another country.

I don't think that the FA example works with regard to punishment, the FA does fine clubs arbitrarily, other clubs do not have a veto on the punishment meted out.

Regarding Poland I think its unlikely that they will be stripped of voting rights but then thats not the problem, in the eyes of Poles “the EU” is imposing its will on a democratically elected Govt. The same applies to Hungary.

This situation for Poles, who will have memories of their times living under Communism will not make the EU popular. The same situation but for different reasons spplies in Greece and Italy. I note Spain, Portugal and France are all in breach of EU budget rules but they are not bring fined (probably the right decision), yet Italy are being given a kicking for their proposed budget.

No doubt there are technical whys and wherefores that support “the EU” however that wont matter to the masses, they see a high handed remote unelcted institution interferring with countries internal workings, and/or grievance at inconsistency to how they are treated in comparison with other countries, particularly France and Germany.

Of all the EU country’s we know how this plays out better than most.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I don't think that the FA example works with regard to punishment, the FA does fine clubs arbitrarily, other clubs do not have a veto on the punishment meted out.

Regarding Poland I think its unlikely that they will be stripped of voting rights but then thats not the problem, in the eyes of Poles “the EU” is imposing its will on a democratically elected Govt. The same applies to Hungary.

This situation for Poles, who will have memories of their times living under Communism will not make the EU popular. The same situation but for different reasons spplies in Greece and Italy. I note Spain, Portugal and France are all in breach of EU budget rules but they are not bring fined (probably the right decision), yet Italy are being given a kicking for their proposed budget.

No doubt there are technical whys and wherefores that support “the EU” however that wont matter to the masses, they see a high handed remote unelcted institution interferring with countries internal workings, and/or grievance at inconsistency to how they are treated in comparison with other countries, particularly France and Germany.

Of all the EU country’s we know how this plays out better than most.

Your last two paragraphs referring to the masses' opinions depends entirely on the media. Every level of the EU is elected, but where do you find that in the press?

 

[cunning fergus]

Are you truly expecting that in a no deal situation, we would pay nothing, and we would be getting our share of the EU estate?

No, i am merely telling you that a HoL Committee has advised that the UK has no legal obligation to pay a penny to the EU after March 2019. The article is clear enough isnt it?

That does not mean that there is a quid pro quo from the EU that means they do NOT have to pay the UK what it owes the UK.

We want our money back so we can (if we choose) use it to fund the NHS.

Brilliant eh!

 

[A1X]

I think it's interesting the tonal shift in the last few days to the Government saying "if the deal is voted down then it's no deal" to "if the deal is voted down then there's a risk of no Brexit". Makes me suspect the Government think the Europhobes are more likely to be won over than the Remainers.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1083283376667312128[/tweet]

 

[cunning fergus]

Your last two paragraphs referring to the masses' opinions depends entirely on the media. Every level of the EU is elected, but where do you find that in the press?

To most people unless they have had a opportunity to vote for “someone” or “something” then they have not been elected. We know just like the Poles do when the EU make decisions at odds with our own Govt. The EU may be legally correct but optically with the masses it doesnt wash its face.

I think powerful people electing powerful people is a politburo not direct democracy. I know you see it differently and i do accept that view, i dont agree with it though.

There is the rub for the EU and no amount of positive coverage in the press about an elected Head of the EU Commission is going to change that, because for many people they will simply say, but i didnt vote for him/her.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

To most people unless they have had a opportunity to vote for “someone” or “something” then they have not been elected. We know just like the Poles do when the EU make decisions at odds with our own Govt. The EU may be legally correct but optically with the masses it doesnt wash its face.

I think powerful people electing powerful people is a politburo not direct democracy. I know you see it differently and i do accept that view, i dont agree with it though.

There is the rub for the EU and no amount of positive coverage in the press about an elected Head of the EU Commission is going to change that, because for many people they will simply say, but i didnt vote for him/her.

I didn't vote for May, or Corbyn.

 

[cunning fergus]

Neither did i but i took part in the process......Im excluded from all EU electoral processes aside from MEPs who approve laws created by the Commission. That’s the institution that needs to be directly elected.

 

[cunning fergus]

Well done - if not calling people a Tory, and mentioning you're a sheet metal workers son from Whitehawk, then comment on how many posts they've made and call them 'love' or 'chicken' - well done.

Cor, ark at little Lord Fonteroy.......getting all precious.

 

[Mellotron]

www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment...argreaves-and-crispin-odey-brexit-wont-happen

Leave Backers Peter Hargreaves and Crispin Odey: 'Brexit won't happen'

Odey now backing sterling to rise

Crispin Odey says Brexit will be cancelled

Mike Sheen

Hargreaves Lansdown co-founder Peter Hargreaves and hedge fund veteran Crispin Odey have said they expect Brexit will not happen, despite both backing the Leave campaign prior to the 2016 referendum.

The pair told Reuters their pessimism stems from the Brexit deadlock in Parliament, which is set to vote on Prime Minister Theresa May's controversial agreement on Tuesday (15 January).

The Odey Asset Management founder has now amassed a position in favour of sterling, which he expects to bounce in the event Brexit is cancelled.

For his part, Hargreaves believes the political establishment is determined to stop Brexit, a generation of distrust of Britain's political classes.

Brexit clarity will release pent-up demand for UK assets

He said the Government will first force an extension of the formal Article 50 process, pushing the departure date beyond the planned 29 March, and then call for a second referendum.

Hargreaves explained: "I have totally given up. I am totally in despair, I don't think Brexit will happen at all.

"They (pro-Europeans) are banking on the fact that people are so fed up with it that will just say ‘sod it we will stay'. I do see that attitude.

"The problem is when something doesn't happen for so long you feel less angry about it."

Meanwhile, Odey, who donated more than £870,000 to pro-Leave groups, said he does not believe there will be a second but does not think Brexit happen either.

He said: "My view is that it is not going to happen. I just cannot see how it happens with that configuration of parliament."

Odey added that he had changed his position on sterling over the last month and that the pound "looks like it could be quite strong" and rise to $1.32 or $1.35 against the US dollar.

 

[cuthbert]

You can join the Tory or Labour party and get a vote on the leader of your party and therefore the PM. Which organisation, as a normal citizen, can I join to get a vote on the head of the EU ?

Technically yes , but I think there have only been two occasions when ordinary members of the Conservative Party have actually got to vote on the leader, the successful candidates were Iain Duncan=Smith and David Cameron. The MPs have chosen all of the others since and including Edward Heath. Before Heath leaders "emerged after soundings in The Party", After Alec Douglas-Home emerged who was not at the time an MP they changed the system.

 

[Mtoto]

Caroline Lucas's speech to the second referendum convention today:

https://www.carolinelucas.com/latest/think-anew-act-anew

 

[Lincoln Imp]

www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment...argreaves-and-crispin-odey-brexit-wont-happen

Leave Backers Peter Hargreaves and Crispin Odey: 'Brexit won't happen'

He said the Government will first force an extension of the formal Article 50 process, pushing the departure date beyond the planned 29 March, and then call for a second referendum.

How does he think the government will force a delay to Article 50?

 

[Mellotron]

How does he think the government will force a delay to Article 50?

I’m confused - are you saying it’s impossible? We know they’re talking about extending it...?

Also, to confirm, I’m just publishing an article. These views are not my own.

 

[Baldseagull]

No, i am merely telling you that a HoL Committee has advised that the UK has no legal obligation to pay a penny to the EU after March 2019. The article is clear enough isnt it?

That does not mean that there is a quid pro quo from the EU that means they do NOT have to pay the UK what it owes the UK.

We want our money back so we can (if we choose) use it to fund the NHS.

Brilliant eh!

It's not going to happen though is it, and it never was.
The only opportunity for any kind of dividend from Brexit would be that we would collect and keep 100% of tariffs applied to imports, as opposed to the 20% we retain now. But on the other hand you have maniacs like Rees-Mogg proposing that we scrap all tariffs.

 

[nicko31]

Jezza Hunt: “Cancelling Brexit would be very bad for Britain's reputation abroad”

Appointing Boris Johnson and then Jeremy Hunt as Foreign Secretary has been very bad for Britain’s reputation abroad