[Politics] Brexit

[DIFFBROOK]

Where is that idiot with the crystal ball who said 'No Deal' ain't gonna happen?Getting closer every day,on our way!

If this half baked nonsense in/out Brexit is rejected by MP's, then they will simply not allow a no deal. Seems to me that we are closer to staying in the EU more than ever before. On our way

 

[Baldseagull]

One thing that's starting to irritate me is the further purveyance of this particular brand of British arrogance that assumes that the EU are still gonna bend over backwards to allow us a way out of this mess. The much touted options of a 2nd referendum, general election and Tory leadership election all require an extension of article 50 that we all assume the EU is dying to give us. It's perfectly possible for them to say "naaah we've had enough of this now you're taking the piss. Take the deal or leave it, or remain. No more elections, no more referendums. Choose."

I just get the feeling that all this talk about 2nd referendums and elections may be a waste of time if the EU decide they don't want to play our silly games anymore.

There is the option of rescinding Article 50 notice, I think this is possible, and I believe the EU court will be giving the question of whether it is or is not, a hearing tomorrow.
If it is not possible, then we are in a very shitty situation where whatever we do is going to require us asking favours of the EU, even TM's deal, because it is highly unlikely that we get all arrangements for future trade deal in place in the next 4 years, (2 years plus up to 2 year extension is all that is provisioned for in the withdrawal agreement).
If it is possible, it is a get out of jail free card, but will May, or whoever takes over, use it?

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

As ever, I'll pre-warn that I am NOT a huge politics guy and, to be honest, the usual day-to-day stuff bores me to tears.

But, as a complete novice, I was thinking today about the time before the referendum. As I didn't really follow day-to-day politics I never noticed it, but was there a HUGE outpouring for a referendum from the public in general beforehand?

It's a genuine question.

 

[beorhthelm]

... because it is highly unlikely that we get all arrangements for future trade deal in place in the next 4 years, (2 years plus up to 2 year extension is all that is provisioned for in the withdrawal agreement).

accepting that remaining would probably be better overall, why persist in this idea future trade would be difficult to agree. with the EU we are already compliant with all their regulations so it should be trivial, accepting some contentious areas (fishing). for rest of world we start from WTO rules, agree separation of quotas (not that difficult past some grandstanding) and take indefinite time to seek agreement on bi-lateral basis beyond that. point is the defaults for trade are already in place, little changes, whether we get improvements is the question.

 

[Simster]

Where is that idiot with the crystal ball who said 'No Deal' ain't gonna happen?Getting closer every day,on our way!

I haven't bothered reading too far back on this thread, but how do you work that out? No deal is about as likely as a second referendum IMO. Just because May is desperately trying to shore up enough votes for her crap agreement, it doesn't mean no deal is about to happen when that gets thrown out.

Personally I am divided between a) hoping she somehow gets it through parliament just because the country has never felt so divided and it's time we moved on, and b) hoping it gets thrown out, as a second referendum will surely be just around the corner, far more likely than no deal.

 

[Baldseagull]

Corrected for you. On this thread,tbh, there's only been one lot on the NSC Brexit thread that have been sneering and claiming intellectual superiority. Read all six and a half thousand posts and you will see that clearly. Reluctantly, I agree, but clearly.

You have stated you don't care what damage occurs, you just want out, there is no intellectual argument to make against that, it seems that yours was an emotional decision, not sure which emotion made that decision for you though, or what exactly triggered that emotion.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

I don't think so. I doubt 48% of those who voted to stay in the EU were agitating for a referendum, whilst I would hazard a guess that at most 50% of the 52% who want out were desperate for one. Lets say 25% of the electorate desperately wanted a referendum.

As ever, I'll pre-warn that I am NOT a huge politics guy and, to be honest, the usual day-to-day stuff bores me to tears.

But, as a complete novice, I was thinking today about the time before the referendum. As I didn't really follow day-to-day politics I never noticed it, but was there a HUGE outpouring for a referendum from the public in general beforehand?

It's a genuine question.

 

[beorhthelm]

As ever, I'll pre-warn that I am NOT a huge politics guy and, to be honest, the usual day-to-day stuff bores me to tears.

But, as a complete novice, I was thinking today about the time before the referendum. As I didn't really follow day-to-day politics I never noticed it, but was there a HUGE outpouring for a referendum from the public in general beforehand?

It's a genuine question.

as above Diffbrook says, no probably not. however there was a wide rumbling discontent with europe (right or wrongly) that was not being recognised, and became apparent with the vote.
and you know what we did when we found out, we told that group they were wrong, un-intellegent, racists, too old to care and all sorts of other insults rather than actually take time to sell what the EU does positively.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Now the PM is turning to emotional black mail.

“Brexit: Back my deal or risk more division, May to tell MPs”

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46336772

Utterly disgusting, how low will she stoop?

Even more depressing somehow than the threat of more division is her emerging strategy of saying "Yes, I know you're bored of Brexit so let's shut the door on it and we can all have a nice Christmas". If anyone is implying that the British people are stupid Strictly-voters with the attention spans of gnats it is Theresa May.

No one can be sure whether the approach of trying to influence MPs via their constituents will work. Current stats suggest it might, but not in her favour - recent polling by YouGov has shown that in every Tory seat with a majority under 5,000 the electorate backs a People’s Vote. The same applies for all 259 Labour seats across Britain.

 

[Simster]

as above Diffbrook says, no probably not. however there was a wide rumbling discontent with europe (right or wrongly) that was not being recognised, and became apparent with the vote.
and you know what we did when we found out, we told that group they were wrong, un-intellegent, racists, too old to care and all sorts of other insults rather than actually take time to sell what the EU does positively.

Equally, if you are jobless and live on a sink estate with your kids going to a crap school, what motivation is there for those people to vote to keep the status quo? For me, this is one of the dangers of referendums.

 

[mejonaNO12 aka riskit]

So it feels a little bit like having a beard you are fine with, then asking your mates whether you should go for a new beard style, shaving it all off and then realising you've lost the ability to grow any more facial hair.

 

[ManOfSussex]

accepting that remaining would probably be better overall, why persist in this idea future trade would be difficult to agree. with the EU we are already compliant with all their regulations so it should be trivial, accepting some contentious areas (fishing). for rest of world we start from WTO rules, agree separation of quotas (not that difficult past some grandstanding) and take indefinite time to seek agreement on bi-lateral basis beyond that. point is the defaults for trade are already in place, little changes, whether we get improvements is the question.

You still think a future trade deal wont be difficult to agree and it's trivial. How sweet.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

As ever, I'll pre-warn that I am NOT a huge politics guy and, to be honest, the usual day-to-day stuff bores me to tears.

But, as a complete novice, I was thinking today about the time before the referendum. As I didn't really follow day-to-day politics I never noticed it, but was there a HUGE outpouring for a referendum from the public in general beforehand?

It's a genuine question.

My understanding is that with UKIP having a bit of a surge in the opinion polls and the tabloids making immigration the flavour of the day, David Cameron thought it would be a good stunt to include the promise of a referendum in the 2015 Tory Party manifesto. This way he could head off UKIP and concentrate on sinking his LibDem partners in government. Because referendums have long been regarded (by people as far apart as Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher) as hostile to Britain's ancient parliamentary system he decided not to get cabinet approval for the wheeze, but just went for it, supported by one or two colleagues (Osborn might have been one).

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You still think a future trade deal wont be difficult to agree and it's trivial. How sweet.

U.K. - We want this

EU - No you can’t have it, you can have what we say you can

U.K. - Ok

Pretty easy

 

[pb21]

Even more depressing somehow than the threat of more division is her emerging strategy of saying "Yes, I know you're bored of Brexit so let's shut the door on it and we can all have a nice Christmas". If anyone is implying that the British people are stupid Strictly-voters with the attention spans of gnats it is Theresa May.

No one can be sure whether the approach of trying to influence MPs via their constituents will work. Current stats suggest it might, but not in her favour - recent polling by YouGov has shown that in every Tory seat with a majority under 5,000 the electorate backs a People’s Vote. The same applies for all 259 Labour seats across Britain.

Well I have emailed my MP (Sir Nicholas Soames) with my thoughts, although I really cant imagine him voting against a Tory government, regardless of how bad it is.

 

[Baldseagull]

accepting that remaining would probably be better overall, why persist in this idea future trade would be difficult to agree. with the EU we are already compliant with all their regulations so it should be trivial, accepting some contentious areas (fishing). for rest of world we start from WTO rules, agree separation of quotas (not that difficult past some grandstanding) and take indefinite time to seek agreement on bi-lateral basis beyond that. point is the defaults for trade are already in place, little changes, whether we get improvements is the question.

The point is we are saying we will be different, so as much as we are the same now, we have to agree to what are the limits of our ability to diverge. EU farmers will be getting their subsidies, if we subsidise ours to a lesser extent or not at all, then EU farmers have an advantage and we should not allow tariff free produce where there is a UK produced alternative, but at what level, and should this be seasonal for some produce. UK is going to try to get something better than equivalence for Financial Services, Fishing rights for EU vessels in UK waters, and landing rights for UK vessels in EU fish markets.
In most other trade deals, there is agreement to reach some common standards over time, and as those occur, more access is given, we are doing the opposite, we are saying we are going to differ over time, and that is going to be a tricky thing to do.
When that is negotiated, you have to get the deal past 27 members, some of those members have regional parliaments that will vote on it as well so there are numerous hurdles for any negotiated deal to jump. This was one of the arguments for leaving, that being outside of the EU we could do trade deals faster with the rest of the world, because we would not be worrying about the interests of all the regions of the EU.
Honestly, this is not going to be a walk in the park, and we are not going to be doing any other significant trade deals until it is done.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Where is that idiot with the crystal ball who said 'No Deal' ain't gonna happen?Getting closer every day,on our way!

Is this some pathetic attempt to parody yourself, as even you cannot be that stupid

 

[Westdene Seagull]

You know it’s bad when she is resorting to negative campaigning.

Indeed but she obviously hasn't learnt from the negative campaigning of Remain during the referendum ..... something that lost them the vote !

 

[WATFORD zero]

U.K. - We want this

EU - No you can’t have it, you can have what we say you can

U.K. - Ok

Pretty easy

To be fair, you summarised and missed


UK - We'll tell you what we want, what we really really want
EU - Yes tell us what you want, what you really really want
UK - We'll tell you what we want, what we really really want
EU - Yes tell us what you want, what you really really want
UK - We'll tell you what we want, what we really really want
EU - Yes tell us what you want, what you really really want
UK - We'll tell you what we want, what we really really want
EU - Yes tell us what you want, what you really really want (repeat for 18 months)

U.K. - We want this
EU - No you can’t have it, you can have what we say you can
U.K. - Ok

 

[beorhthelm]

You still think a future trade deal wont be difficult to agree and it's trivial. How sweet.

no, im saying that the foundation of a trade deal is straight forward as it already exists. a couple of years is required to sort out corner cases and specfic points of contention, not start a deal from a blank sheet of paper as is the case with often cited other examples. shirley you can accept this point, that we arent starting from scratch?