[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

The IMF really does have a very poor track record of forecasts. They make Mark Carney look like an insightful guru (him with the “Unreliable Boyfriend” nickname).

Knew I couldn't get away with quoting the IMF,the number of times I've slagged off them and their crook of a boss.Might focus some minds who think that they know what they're on about!

 

[nicko31]

The IMF has also said that the EU could lose as much as 1.5% of gross domestic product from a “no-deal” Brexit, while the UK would suffer an even bigger hit (a 4% loss of national income).

That's a high price to pay.

4% seems pretty conservative. By the time Brexit happens our growth divergence against staying will already be close to 3%..

 

[Two Professors]

The IMF has also said that the EU could lose as much as 1.5% of gross domestic product from a “no-deal” Brexit, while the UK would suffer an even bigger hit (a 4% loss of national income).

That's a high price to pay.

I think you will find 4% was quoted for the Irish Republic.

 

[AK74]

I think you will find 4% was quoted for the Irish Republic.

The IMF forecast is a 4% decline for the UK. Ireland will fall by almost the same amount.

 

[larus]

I can't recall seeing too many forecasts which illustrate a substantial increase in GDP as a result of a no-deal Brexit. But perhaps I've been looking in the wrong places.

Well, let’s start with their predictions of a slow-down in the economy in the event of a leave vote (not the act of leaving). WRONG
How about their predictions that the austerity being imposed by the coalition/Tories would be bad for the economy. WRONG again.

That’s just 2 examples of their failures. They’ve made predictions and been wrong about the impact of the vote and austerity. Don’t try to use the impact of austerity on people/lives to defend them - this is not the point I’m making. My point is on the impact to GDP.

In regards to the future, I’m not expecting that in the immediate aftermath of leaving the EU that GDP will grow faster. I expect that over time, the trend rate of growth will increase though.

However, with that type of economic forecast, it’s impossible to say whether it’s right or not. But this I mean, I can say it is better than it would have been if we’d stayed in the EU, you can say it’s worse, but no one can prove either way. It’s a straw man argument.

 

[larus]

4% seems pretty conservative. By the time Brexit happens our growth divergence against staying will already be close to 3%..

Strawman post. No one can possibly know what the economy would have done if we’d voted remain. It’s impossible to know.

All we do know is that all of the forecasts of Doom and Gloom were wrong. If things were so bad, why is unemployment at such record lows and employment at record highs?

Employment is a good barometer for the economy.

 

[The Clamp]

The foreign secretary said "many" in the EU believed they just had to "wait long enough and Britain will blink" but "that's not going to happen".

It's statements and a mindset like this that has caused Brexit to be a complete disaster. This is not a poker game, this is not a gunfight. It's the future of the UK for God's sakes. It's real people's lives.

Speaking in Berlin, Mr Hunt, said a no deal would be "challenging" but the UK would still "thrive economically".

They keep saying this, the Leave voters keep saying this but not one of them seems to be able to go further and say how we are going to thrive.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44918262

 

[narly101]

I'm more concerned about the Pringles. If we don't sort out a deal, will we still be able to get them, considering they're manufactured in Belgium. We may have to stock up before March just so we can watch binfests like this on NSC

 

[Two Professors]

I only hope we can continue to create employment to provide a bit of relief for the many millions cast into poverty by the uncaring policies of the EU.This will only get worse as the ECB stops it's gigantic spending on buying up useless debt.Thank god we are Leaving.

 

[Two Professors]

I'm more concerned about the Pringles. If we don't sort out a deal, will we still be able to get them, considering they're manufactured in Belgium. We may have to stock up before March just so we can watch binfests like this on NSC

I can relieve your worries,as Pringles are now owned by Kellogg and can be supplied from Jackson.

 

[nicko31]

Strawman post. No one can possibly know what the economy would have done if we’d voted remain. It’s impossible to know.

All we do know is that all of the forecasts of Doom and Gloom were wrong. If things were so bad, why is unemployment at such record lows and employment at record highs?

Employment is a good barometer for the economy.

Yeah, not sure if they said we'd go from fastest growing in the G7 to slowest in 2 years, does that count as wrong? Still microwave operator positions at Wetherspoons are booming as the public down trade...

 

[Lincoln Imp]

If you think I have never had any abuse off the remain crew on here,then you are very selective about the posts you read.If you have any complaints,there is a system in place,and I'm sure you will get a very sympathetic hearing,if you speak to the right moderator.Although one of the moderators is just as handy with the insults and abuse as any other remainer.If it all gets too much for you,might I suggest a six month hiatus from this thread and just get back to the footie.Then we can all celebrate Albion's safety in the Prem,in an independent Great Britain.

You're getting things wrong on every level available to you.

1. I have not said that you haven't had any abuse.
2. I do not have any complaints about abuse towards me (I wish it didn't happen at all but on the other hand abuse from at least four posters on here might be regarded as merit awards).
3. The thread is not too much for me (although there's a sad lack of content sometimes).
4. You don't seem the obvious person to issue advice about supporting the Albion although I am happy if you can convince me otherwise.
5. In defence of your latest unpleasantly abusive post you implied that it was simply a like-for-like response. As has been shown, the post you were replying to contained nothing more than the gentlest of banter.

 

[The Clamp]

I only hope we can continue to create employment to provide a bit of relief for the many millions cast into poverty by the uncaring policies of the EU.This will only get worse as the ECB stops it's gigantic spending on buying up useless debt.Thank god we are Leaving.

You are clearly unaware of the funding and job creation the EU has poured into areas of the Uk like the NE and Cornwall. Those areas are going to really suffer.

 

[larus]

Yeah, not sure if they said we'd go from fastest growing in the G7 to slowest in 2 years, does that count as wrong? Still microwave operator positions at Wetherspoons are booming as the public down trade...

Well, if we hadn’t voted to Leave, it would have been much worse. Prove to me that’s not the case. You can’t. Therefore, it’s a STRAWMAN argument.

How’s our leaving going to impact the Eurozone again?

 

[pastafarian]

You are clearly unaware of the funding and job creation the EU has poured into areas of the Uk like the NE and Cornwall. Those areas are going to really suffer.

Brexit Dividend

 

[Two Professors]

You're getting things wrong on every level available to you.

1. I have not said that you haven't had any abuse.
2. I do not have any complaints about abuse towards me (I wish it didn't happen at all but on the other hand abuse from at least four posters on here might be regarded as merit awards).
3. The thread is not too much for me (although there's a sad lack of content sometimes).
4. You don't seem the obvious person to issue advice about supporting the Albion although I am happy if you can convince me otherwise.
5. In defence of your latest unpleasantly abusive post you implied that it was simply a like-for-like response. As has been shown, the post you were replying to contained nothing more than the gentlest of banter.

1.At least you admit the abuse exists
2.Have a Gold Star
3.Are you sure?
4.Why?I dare say I have been supporting Albion longer than you,and I actually come from Sussex.
5.My responses to that particular poster and his other personae are to a long history of personal abuse,including most recently that I live on benefits.A very deeply unpleasant individual with a chip on both shoulders.

 

[Two Professors]

You are clearly unaware of the funding and job creation the EU has poured into areas of the Uk like the NE and Cornwall. Those areas are going to really suffer.

Rubbish.Just some of our contributions being grudgingly given back.

 

[The Clamp]

Rubbish.Just some of our contributions being grudgingly given back.

No. I'm afraid not. You don't understand how the funding works to counter wealth disparity. It takes money from countries and distributes it to the poorest parts of Europe, including areas in the UK.
For example, look how it has transformed your beloved Brum. The EU has done magnificent work in the UK and if you think a Tory government is going to take the money they save on the EU and help poorer part of the UK as much as the EU has, you're bonkers!


I apologise that this list is a re-post of the one you completely ignored when you tried to claim that the EU had done nothing for your city or the UK.


Here are 15 things that happened thanks to a little help from Brussels:

1. The International Convention Centre

Cherie and Tony Blair with Bill and Hilary Clinton at the ICC in 1998
The EU chipped in £50 million towards the ICC and Symphony Hall which opened for business in 1991. It most famously welcomed global leaders, including Presidents Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin to the 1998 G8 Summit. Each year it hosts some 350 events including political and business conferences bringing hundreds of thousands of visitors to the city.

2. The NEC
National Exhibition Centre
National Exhibition Centre
There was further help for the city’s conference and exhibition industry with a £30 million cheque towards the refurbishment of the NEC - which of course is home to Crufts and many other major shows bringing thousands more to the city.

3. The West Coast Mainline
Virgin train
Virgin train (Image: Martin Keene/PA Wire)
Remember the upgrade of railway linking Birmingham to London, the North West and Scotland and reducing journey times in the process? The EU paid £66 million towards that.

4. Breaking the Concrete Collar

The demolition of Masshouse Circus
Those folks in Brussels helped Birmingham rid itself of one its biggest mistakes of the 1960s. It paid £9.1 million towards the redevelopment of Masshouse Circus in 2002, including the breaking of the Queensway flyover, known as the concrete collar, which had held back the expansion of the city centre for more than a generation.

5. The Town Hall

The inside of the Town Hall in Birmingham in order to help kids with autism.
Built in 1834 the Town Hall is the city’s premier historic building. But just over decade ago it was in a pretty sorry state, covered in soot and neglected. The EU, with a £3 million handout, was among a number of backers which saw it cleaned-up, its stonework restored and its interior refurbished and reopened in 2007.

6. Millennium Point
The Spitfire Gallery, Thinktank
The Spitfire Gallery, Thinktank
The home of the Thinktank Museum and Birmingham City University was completed in 2000, it was, through a £25.6 million investment, the the UK’s largest ERDF funded project at the time.

7. Innovation Hub

Over £6 million invested in Innovation Birmingham, the former Aston Science Park, bringing digital and high technology businesses and jobs to the city.

8. Jobs for young people

(Image: Pic: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire)
Only last month the city council accepted a £33 million EU social fund grant towards its scheme to get 16,000 Brummies, aged under 30, into employment .

9. Backing for business
Business
Business
Between 2007 and 2013, as the economy nose-dived, the European Regional Development Fund provided financial support for 24,910 West Midlands based businesses

10. The Assay Office
CGI of the converted Assay Office in Newhall Street
CGI of the converted Assay Office in Newhall Street
At the centre of Birmingham’s historic Jewellery Quarter is the Assay Office - one of the few places that precious metals can be tested and hall marked. Part of the cost of its expansion and relocation last year was covered with a £1.5 million EU grant.

11. MG Rover Task Force
Rover's Longbridge plant in Birmingham pictured in June 2003
Rover's Longbridge plant in Birmingham pictured in June 2003
The collapse of MG Rover in 2005 directly caused 6,000 redundancies, plus many further losses along the supply chains. The task force was set up to create jobs, invest and help get those workers back into employment. More than a third of its £176 million pot came from EU emergency funds.

12. University research
Chemistry apprentice
Chemistry apprentice
No wonder some of our universities are keen on the UK remaining in the EU. In the West Midlans alone between 2007 and 2013 universities benefited to the tune of about £260 million, funding research into health, food, energy, climate change and transport. They are receiving similar amounts under the new funding package.

13. Birmingham International Dance Festival
Performers at Birmingham's International Dance Festival
Performers at Birmingham's International Dance Festival
Grants totalling £741,000 over six years helped get the festival launched in 2008 and established. In 2014 the festival was estimated to be worth £2.6 million to the city’s visitor economy.

14. The African-Caribbean Millennium Centre

Chairman Martin Blissett outside the African-Caribbean Millennium Centre in Winson Green in 2004.
The EU gave £530,000 towards the setting up of this vital community centre in Winson Green.

15. The Nishkam Centre

Performance at the Nishkam Centre, Handsworth
The ERDF stumped up £2.5 million, of the £6 million cost of developing this facility for the Sikh community and wider population of Handsworth. It opened in 2006.

 

[nicko31]

Well, if we hadn’t voted to Leave, it would have been much worse. Prove to me that’s not the case. You can’t. Therefore, it’s a STRAWMAN argument.

So you think if we'd voted remained UK growth would have been significantly lower over the past 2 years? Is that seriously what you are suggesting?

Probably best if you quit now and stuck to your record number of low paid jobs keeping UK unemployment down stance

 

[Simster]

Your interest in my posting history is getting strange. I'd move on if I were you, it's becoming obsessive. Seriously. Get a grip.

Do you believe the crap you come out with? I've quoted ONE post from your past here. Unless I'm missing something, that doesn't seem particularly obsessive. You just need to stop lying.