[Politics] Brexit

[daveinprague]

Do you still put your trust in economists that are paid a fortune and couldn't even predict what would happen to the UK economy one month ahead? And do you put your trust in a BoE governor who broke every unwritten rule of political neutrality when making his own erroenous and spectacularly wrong predictions and whose actions in the immediate aftermath of Brexit bring into question his competence in his job?

A fine piece of whataboutery


Who do you trust Buzz?

Personally, I would probably trust an economist first, who has nothing really to gain.

 

[Buzzer]

Thanks for quoting me Buzzer but we haven't actually left the EU yet so the economic impact you're quoting me about can't be quantified, it's just looking more and more likely that the "experts" were correct. But we shall see.

Low blow sir.

And I try to stay off this shithouse of a thread. As you were.....

Apologies, it wasn't meant to be a pop at you, I just remembered having the same conversation about forecasts not being facts. Interesting you say we haven't left the EU yet and sure, all those organisations, IOD, CBI, ECB, World Bank, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, BoE etc etc etc have predicted dire consequences for the UK on leaving the EU but all of them, and I do mean all of them, also predicted an immediate heavy recession and huge liquidity problems for the Bank of England in the wake of the vote and they all got it completely wrong.

I've said it before but this worries me greatly on a more general point. The whole thing about forecasts is that the further into the future you go, the more variables are at play and so you should always place a lot more reliance on short term forecasts. All these people that got it wrong are the world experts in their field and paid astronomical salaries for their opinions. These people, hundreds of them, couldn't even predict with any accuracy what would happen 6 weeks ahead for a major, stable, first world economy.

And once again apologies. I didn't intend it to be as it looked by quoting you.

 

[Buzzer]

A fine piece of whataboutery


Who do you trust Buzz?

Personally, I would probably trust an economist first, who has nothing really to gain.

It's not whataboutery. I don't trust politicians to make economic predictions because they have an agenda but I also now have a deep distrust of these economists not through any belief in them also having and agenda but their inability to do what they are paid to - provide reliable forecasts even for very short time-frames.

 

[pb21]

Really?

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/treasury-cabinet-office-mandarins-behind-brexit-doom-document/

Conflating civil servants from numerous departments with Brexiteers seems a bit silly. The 'Brexiteers' only had first sight of the preliminary report after it was leaked.

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/civil-servants-kept-forecasts-from-ministers/

Brexiteers commissioned these forecasts, ergo Brexiteers make forecasts.

I guess you could say Brexiteers don't make public forecasts, but who can blame them when they are all negative.

 

[daveinprague]

It's not whataboutery. I don't trust politicians to make economic predictions because they have an agenda but I also now have a deep distrust of these economists not through any belief in them also having and agenda but their inability to do what they are paid to - provide reliable forecasts even for very short time-frames.

Well, thats pretty much my take. What economists have had to predict is pretty extraordinary so I tend to give them the benefit of doubt.

 

[Buzzer]

Well, thats pretty much my take. What economists have had to predict is pretty extraordinary so I tend to give them the benefit of doubt.

I'm not sure that makes sense though. You're giving them a pass on not being able to second-guess the immediate effects of an extraordinary event and so going to trust their ability to predict the long-term effects of the same extraordinary event.

 

[A1X]

My apologies I didn't realise you were 12 years old.

Didn't like the answers then? Never mind.

 

[daveinprague]

I'm not sure that makes sense though. You're giving them a pass on not being able to second-guess the immediate effects of an extraordinary event and so going to trust their ability to predict the long-term effects of the same extraordinary event.

but, I think we are understanding the pitfalls a bit more now.

 

[Buzzer]

Brexiteers commissioned these forecasts, ergo Brexiteers make forecasts.

I guess you could say Brexiteers don't make public forecasts, but who can blame them when they are all negative.

I think you may be using a different definition of the word 'commission' to the rest of us.

 

[pb21]

I think you may be using a different definition of the word 'commission' to the rest of us.

Did the Department for Exiting the European Union request this 'EU Exit Analysis' work to be undertaken?

 

[CheeseRolls]

It's not whataboutery. I don't trust politicians to make economic predictions because they have an agenda but I also now have a deep distrust of these economists not through any belief in them also having and agenda but their inability to do what they are paid to - provide reliable forecasts even for very short time-frames.

This is a pretty convenient argument. The graphs I showed earlier indicated that the Bank of England growth forecasts are actually above the UK's growth forecast. Economies don't like shocks and economists have to assess risk and likelihood as well as forecast. The cynic in me predicts that many on here will suddenly discover a new found confidence in economic forecasts, when the Spector of a Corbyn/McDonnell government looms. The actions of the current government and the collusion of key media, is essentially handing a potential Corbyn government the opportunity to stick their fingers in their ears and chant la la la to the cries of economic mismanagement.

I had a long drive to Reading this morning and caught nearly all of the Today programme on Radio 4. How did they cover the Buzzfeed leak? Government criticism was provided by Rees-Mogg and IDS. Not a single opposition MP, leaver or economist was invited to comment. This speaks volumes about the political interference in the BBC and this is only heading one way. My money is on Ken Livingstone as future DG and this is utterly depressing.

 

[Buzzer]

Did the Department for Exiting the European Union request this 'EU Exit Analysis' work to be undertaken?

Yes. The same as when Count Walsegg commissioned Mozart to write a piece of music for him. It doesn't mean the Count wrote it. Once again, I'm going to point you to the meaning of the word 'commission'.

*Plot spoiler* It's when you get experts in to provide a service for you. They are the ones who do the work.

 

[Buzzer]

This is a pretty convenient argument.

It's bloody inconvenient. These are the people I used to trust. I'll be honest, I'm really not sure what the rest of your argument is getting at though.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Just a thought: if the economic models that are predicting the relatively grim outcomes of hard Brexit scenarios (i.e the harder the Brexit, the worse the outcome) are as rubbish and error-ridden as our Leaver friends say, then of course it's logically possible that they've made a huge error and actually underestimated the impact of crashing out of the EU.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

I haven't noticed Brexiteers making any forecasts. What don't we care about and who are we blaming?

I would have thought they should have been attempting to do some forecasting. Either they rely on other forecasters or are happy to go with blind faith. Doesn't really inspire confidence.

 

[pb21]

Yes. The same as when Count Walsegg commissioned Mozart to write a piece of music for him. It doesn't mean the Count wrote it. Once again, I'm going to point you to the meaning of the word 'commission'.

*Plot spoiler* It's when you get experts in to provide a service for you. They are the ones who do the work.

So if the Department for Exiting the European Union commissioned this EU Exit Analysis, they were never going to read it or speak it to anyone?

I'm not saying David Davis and his minions worked around the clock personally to come up with this work, obviously that got in experts who know what they are talking about, that much is clear!

But the accusation was that Brexiteers don't make forecasts. If they don't make forecasts why was David Davis commissioning forecasts to be made?

On your basis you could equally say Remainers don't make Bexit related forecasts.

 

[CheeseRolls]

It's bloody inconvenient. These are the people I used to trust. I'll be honest, I'm really not sure what the rest of your argument is getting at though.

Unlike some on here, I think you are capable of reading a graph, aside from the Project Fear smokescreen, and the hurried Treasury doom scenarios economists have not been far off in their forecasts. More problematic is that small drops in growth actually have a large impact on the real economy, which impacts us all and there has been lost growth over the last two years, largely down to uncertainty. There is a clear and obvious conclusion from the leaked reports that the further we diverge from the EU the worse the consequences. The nearer we converge to the EU the bigger the waste of time this whole things has been. Let me know when I should start waving the flag and singing the national anthem.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

So. Today’s posts in summary: No one, experts, lay people, anyone, has a clue where this is heading. The great unknown: what a ****ing diabolical situation to put a country, and real peoples lives, in. Lovely.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

So. Today’s posts in summary: No one, experts, lay people, anyone, has a clue where this is heading. The great unknown: what a ****ing diabolical situation to put a country, and real peoples lives, in. Lovely.

yep ,why haven't we left this shoddy EU set up , it's what the vote was for .
regards
DR

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

What's it got do do with you?

Nothing really, other than I really don’t like bullshitters...which you have done twice to my knowledge now. Although one could be considered economical or seriously misleading as opposed to out and out bullshit.