[Politics] Brexit

[vegster]

Is Starmer still in a job?

#amazing

Much more surprising is that David Davis is.

 

[The Clamp]

Shame you don't do it anymore.

A great shame.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Shouldn't this guy who is speaking of Davis' behalf be responding to all criticism today with a report that shows the positive economic impact of the deal that the Government wants rather than simply rubbishing his own colleague's work?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Wonder why so many people still want to come here,instead of France or the Reich?

Because you don’t need to register like you do in Germany?

 

[Two Professors]

With all the interest in economic impacts on here today,perhaps the pay survey on the BBC undertaken by PwC should have some mention.Supposed to examine gender bias on pay in the BBC,but didn't even consult BBC Women before publication.And people on here think we should listen to what these financial geniuses come out with?

 

[CheeseRolls]

You obviously do which leads to a few questions.

What is Her Majesty's Government track record in making economic forecasts generally?

Why was the OBR set up?

What is HMG track record in making Brexit forecasts?

Relating to the last question ... Why are we not in the middle of the HMG forecast recession?

What happened to the forecast collapse in GDP?

Why is employment at a record high instead of the 500,000 + more unemployed forecast by HMG?

HMT shock and severe shock stand out here, but the names imply these were multiple scenarios and severe shock was obviously worst case scenario. Otherwise performance is currently worse than predicted.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Their economic forecasts have been too optimistic pretty much consistently to this point. So the likelihood of the 8% lower GDP is more likely to end up being 12-13% on current form.



Because George Osborne wanted to feel big and superior.



See answer to first question.



Because we haven't left yet and this was forecast to happen after we left.



See previous answer.



See previous answer, plus attempts by HMG to remove people from unemployment figures through other means such as universal credit.

Hope that gave you the answers you wanted.

My apologies I didn't realise you were 12 years old.

 

[Two Professors]

Wondered when the pie charts and graphs that prove exactly sod all would appear again.Here's a new game brought to you by Momentum.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

View attachment 93642

HMT shock and severe shock stand out here, but the names imply these were multiple scenarios and severe shock was obviously worst case scenario. Otherwise performance is currently worse than predicted.

There was a specific HMT report forecasting the immediate economic impact. It only had two scenarios, Shock and severe shock both were woefully inaccurate.

 

[CheeseRolls]

There was a specific HMT report forecasting the immediate economic impact. It only had two scenarios, Shock and severe shock both were woefully inaccurate.

and the standard Brexiteers forecast from May 2016 to today has been don't care as long as we can blame someone else. Starting to wear a little thin.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

and the standard Brexiteers forecast from May 2016 to today has been don't care as long as we can blame someone else. Starting to wear a little thin.

I haven't noticed Brexiteers making any forecasts. What don't we care about and who are we blaming?

 

[nicko31]

With all the interest in economic impacts on here today,perhaps the pay survey on the BBC undertaken by PwC should have some mention.Supposed to examine gender bias on pay in the BBC,but didn't even consult BBC Women before publication.And people on here think we should listen to what these financial geniuses come out with?

Nothing to do with Brexit, though I can understand your desire to change when the subject of Brexit economic impact is discussed. Why not have a go at Channel 4, the facts from them must be painful too?

 

[Buzzer]

'Facts'

*snigger*

Hate to break it to you but forecasts aren't facts and the same people who are making these forecasts are the same lot that couldn't predict how the economy would go one month after Brexit.

Mind you, as attempts at points-scoring goes, it's a little more grounded in reality than speculating how a dead man would have voted, so fair dos.

 

[pb21]

I haven't noticed Brexiteers making any forecasts. What don't we care about and who are we blaming?

You do realise it was the Department for Exiting the European Union, i.e. Brexiteers, who made these forecasts?

 

[Buzzer]

Yes. Well aware. It's not Brexit politicians who have crunched the numbers. It's economists on loan from the Treasury.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

You do realise it was the Department for Exiting the European Union, i.e. Brexiteers, who made these forecasts?

Really?

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/treasury-cabinet-office-mandarins-behind-brexit-doom-document/

Conflating civil servants from numerous departments with Brexiteers seems a bit silly. The 'Brexiteers' only had first sight of the preliminary report after it was leaked.

https://order-order.com/2018/01/30/civil-servants-kept-forecasts-from-ministers/

 

[daveinprague]

Im not certain that any Brexit politicians would be competent or trustworthy enough to crunch any numbers tbh

 

[Buzzer]

Funnily enough, I had the same conversation about forecasts not being facts before the Brexit vote when a lot of Remainers were arguing that because practically all the major players were predicting immediate economic meltdown that it was bound to happen. And as we all now know, Professor Minford was right (again) and practically every other major economist was wrong (again).

This from pre-Brexit vote:

Economists are generally useless and completely pointless because there are always half saying one thing and half saying the other. A lot like politicians.

It's because they either have no idea what they're talking about or they have vested interests, or both.

The ONLY time they are worth listening to is when they ALL say the same thing because they will ALL look stupid if they are WRONG.

The reason they ALL agree on this is because they are dealing with FACTS rather than their usual diet of what if's.

Leave only has what if's. Just like Alex Salmond. And he was wrong. #oilprice

Eh? Capitalising the word fact doesn't make it..err...fact (excuse the pun). I'm sorry to labour the point but when making predictions about Brexit, none of them on either side are stating facts. It's simply impossible for a prediction to be a fact and by its very nature, it's based on "what if Britain voted Brexit". You choose to believe one side and I choose to believe another and both of us have senior and well-respected economists we can cite but both are forecasts based on the same "what if".

 

[Buzzer]

Im not certain that any Brexit politicians would be competent or trustworthy enough to crunch any numbers tbh

Do you still put your trust in economists that are paid a fortune and couldn't even predict what would happen to the UK economy one month ahead? And do you put your trust in a BoE governor who broke every unwritten rule of political neutrality when making his own erroenous and spectacularly wrong predictions and whose actions in the immediate aftermath of Brexit bring into question his competence in his job?

 

[LlcoolJ]

Thanks for quoting me Buzzer but we haven't actually left the EU yet so the economic impact you're quoting me about can't be quantified, it's just looking more and more likely that the "experts" were correct. But we shall see.

Low blow sir.

And I try to stay off this shithouse of a thread. As you were.....