[Politics] Brexit

[CheeseRolls]

Just to make clear, are you saying that Goldman Sachs, IMF, The Bank Of England were probably working on the assumption that we had a referendum on the Thursday and then left the EU on the Friday?

If not and you mean that simply Article 50 was triggered then we would still have been in the Single Market with all the benefits and obligations that go with it right up until we left which surely everyone knew would be at least a year away and almost certainly more. And the reality is pretty much this although Article 50 wasn't triggered in June 2016 but March 2017. If the trigger of Article 50 was the catalyst for the predicted economic apocalypse then why did it not happen in March?

Sorry, but I don't buy this mea non culpa whichever way you mean.

There is no probably about it. If you are going to model something this complex the best way to minimise bias in the model is to base it on the here and now. It is a bit like predicting the weather. The experts can give us a good picture for the next three days and confidently predict things will be generally warmer here in six months time, but only the Express can confidently predict the weather for the end of January right now.

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[Sorrel]

Re : the varied reasons for leaving. I didn't think Leave would win and was certainly wavering in my voting choice, but I did not (and do not) want to be a citizen of a single EU state and I was worried that a vote for Remain would actually be a vote for further EU integration. I know the Remain campaign stated that was not the case, but I didn't trust them.

I would guess that there were as many different reasons for people voting to leave as there were for voting remain. Arguing about why people voted the way they did is rather pointless now, though. Instead we should be looking for an accommodation that satisfies the moderates of both Leave and Remain side and produces a compromise outcome: out of the EU, but with close co-operation. I hope it will happen, but it certainly is not guaranteed yet.

 

[The Rivet]

Whether you are an EU lover or hater I would like to wish you all a very happy Christmas and New Year.

 

[daveinprague]

Whether you are an EU lover or hater I would like to wish you all a very happy Christmas and New Year.

This ☺

 

[GT49er]

Re : the varied reasons for leaving. I didn't think Leave would win and was certainly wavering in my voting choice, but I did not (and do not) want to be a citizen of a single EU state and I was worried that a vote for Remain would actually be a vote for further EU integration. I know the Remain campaign stated that was not the case, but I didn't trust them.

Absolutely! And neither did 17 million of us!

 

[larus]

Exactly. There were many people who were ill informed enough to believe the lie. And it wouldn’t have been used if it wasn’t going to be effective. They knew they were misleading but it didn’t matter to them.

And we still don’t have a U.K. exit position despite being what 18 months down the line. Supports your view that there were many varying reasons

And how many were ill-informed enough to believe the many lies from the remain side. I have yet to see the remain side say anything to admit that there were multiple lies from their side, but constantly go on about the £350m

 

[Titanic]

Surprised there isn't a bit note chat on here about the GDP figures.

#despiteBrExit

 

[GT49er]

Surprised there isn't a bit note chat on here about the GDP figures.

#despiteBrExit

You mean this (from the pro-remain Daily Telegraph)?

"Britain’s economy grew by 0.4pc in the third quarter and by 1.7pc on the year, an unexpectedly strong result which indicates the UK is proving more resilient than feared. Sustained household spending growth helped drive the increase, as well as expansions in the accounting, recruitment and retailing sectors which were strong performers in the dominant services industry. Manufacturers were also boosted by rising exports and sales of new car models, the Office for National Statistics said."

Possibly because the Doomeers and Gloomers haven't yet worked out a way to link this to ruining their lives, wrecking the economy, and destroying their childrens' futures? Just a thought..............

 

[Buzzer]

Just to make clear, are you saying that Goldman Sachs, IMF, The Bank Of England were probably working on the assumption that we had a referendum on the Thursday and then left the EU on the Friday?

There is no probably about it.

I'm not sure that's right. Why would any organisation make forecasts based on a scenario that could never occur? They would always be wrong.

It would be absolutely impossible for the referendum result to come through on Friday morning, the UK then formally invoke Article 50 without any reference to a debate in Parliament, an agreement then reached and signed between the UK and the EU on trade, movement of people, border controls, fishing zones, VAT legislation, any liabilities still owing and then the UK formally leave - all done in one day.

If you are going to model something this complex the best way to minimise bias in the model is to base it on the here and now. It is a bit like predicting the weather. The experts can give us a good picture for the next three days and confidently predict things will be generally warmer here in six months time, but only the Express can confidently predict the weather for the end of January right now.

That's an excellent way to describe why you should not trust the words of the IMF/BoE/ECB/CBI. Their forecast of what would happen two months ahead was as apocalyptic, sensationalist and wrong as any Daily Express headline. My confidence in their ability to make accurate medium and long-term forecasts is therefore very low.

 

[Buzzer]

And how many were ill-informed enough to believe the many lies from the remain side. I have yet to see the remain side say anything to admit that there were multiple lies from their side, but constantly go on about the £350m

The fake outrage about the cost of the new passports would be a good place to start.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/944443991021555712

 

[CheeseRolls]

I'm not sure that's right. Why would any organisation make forecasts based on a scenario that could never occur? They would always be wrong.

It would be absolutely impossible for the referendum result to come through on Friday morning, the UK then formally invoke Article 50 without any reference to a debate in Parliament, an agreement then reached and signed between the UK and the EU on trade, movement of people, border controls, fishing zones, VAT legislation, any liabilities still owing and then the UK formally leave - all done in one day.



That's an excellent way to describe why you should not trust the words of the IMF/BoE/ECB/CBI. Their forecast of what would happen two months ahead was as apocalyptic, sensationalist and wrong as any Daily Express headline. My confidence in their ability to make accurate medium and long-term forecasts is therefore very low.

We will be alright then that's a relief.

To this non-believer, labour are angling for something vaguely Norwegian and the Tory right want us to be a scaled up version of the Isle Of Man, what have I missed, other than stuff we get back that I hadn't even missed?

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[vegster]

The fake outrage about the cost of the new passports would be a good place to start.

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/944443991021555712

I'm afraid this is just another sign of the fractured, dystopian society we now have. Arguments over costs and colours of passports distracts from the continuing descent of too many in to poverty and homelessness. Frankly the whole argument about passports is pathetic point scoring.

 

[Buzzer]

I'm afraid this is just another sign of the fractured, dystopian society we now have. Arguments over costs and colours of passports distracts from the continuing descent of too many in to poverty and homelessness. Frankly the whole argument about passports is pathetic point scoring.

I know I'm guilty as charged but isn't this whole thread one long willy-waving exercise?

 

[vegster]

I know I'm guilty as charged but isn't this whole thread one long willy-waving exercise?

Quite probably yes, it's Christmas Eve and we managed to have a truce 100 years ago ...... Mind you, it was only one day. Merry Christmas, Buzzer

 

[Ernest]

Surprised there isn't a bit note chat on here about the GDP figures.

#despiteBrExit

Christmas MUST be FUN in your house

Shut up TARQUIN you can't OPEN your present till I've posted about the GDP figures on NSC

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Christmas MUST be FUN in your house

Shut up TARQUIN you can't OPEN your present till I've posted about the GDP figures on NSC

Top bombing Ernie.

MERRY Christmas to all on this thread. None of this will make a SHRED of difference to anything...!!!



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[The Rivet]

OK enough of this Xmas truce. Hestletine, The ridiculous claims of the ROI/eu and the ridiculous media push for alignment close to the single market and the custom union. Hestletine is an absurd excuse for a politician, the ROI have no voice that doesn't incorporate assent of the North and the media seem intent on pushing the diatribe of close union regardless of Brexit. Bah ****ing Xmas humbug!

 

[Hampster Gull]

OK enough of this Xmas truce. Hestletine, The ridiculous claims of the ROI/eu and the ridiculous media push for alignment close to the single market and the custom union. Hestletine is an absurd excuse for a politician, the ROI have no voice that doesn't incorporate assent of the North and the media seem intent on pushing the diatribe of close union regardless of Brexit. Bah ****ing Xmas humbug!

Perhaps just give NI to Ireland and be done with it

 

[The Rivet]

Perhaps just give NI to Ireland and be done with it

Not without the agreement of the people of NI.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Not without the agreement of the people of NI.

The hard Brexit wanted by the looneys on here just brings that closer.