[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

On my desktop we have reached page 3245, I doubt there is a single page that doesn't include you two repeating this mantra, believe me everyone who has ever taken the most cursory glance at this thread, knows exactly where you to stand. I expect there to be a second referendum, for entirely practical reasons. Whilst both key parties are notionally in favour of exit, I can not see how Brexit Bulldog ace negotiator can come back with a deal that satisfies the majority of his own party let alone the Corbynistas.

If Parliament is not given a vote on the deal there will be a strong push for a vote of no confidence in the government. If you are a remain Tory in a remain area, to support this would be the end of your political career. I am sure that you and many others would urge them to do the right thing for the good of the country and maybe a few will accept the knighthood and life peerage, but the numbers don't look achievable right now.

A vote of no confidence driven by Brexit would be futile if it forces a general election where both main parties are in favour of Brexit. A change of government, would result in a new set of negotiations, followed 2 years later by the same impasse a Brexit proposal that can't proceed without a large government majority in the Commons and a strong party whip.

If you thought the DUP drove a hard bargain, wait until you see Corbyn's Brexit wish list. He holds all the cards, and he isn't ideologically tied to Brexit. He needs a deal far less than half the cabinet who have staked their political careers on Brexit. At the moment it is either a deal on his terms, or he brings down the government, by appearing entirely reasonable, which of course he is not.

I don't derive any satisfaction from this mess and I don't have any great desire to see this outcome, but what I believe can be negotiated is a second referendum, based on the terms agreed/proposed, with a binding agreement from parliament that the result will be respected and passed or rejected based on this outcome.

It's worth repeating so many times because so many people seem to want to ignore it.

Parliament has already been promised a vote. It's a given many will be dissatisfied with the final agreement (assuming there is one) but the choice will be accept the deal or leave on WTO terms .. which should concentrate a few minds. Corbyn, like the Tories leads a divided party and has significant internal opposition to his line on Brexit. More importantly part of his recent electoral success was nullyfing Brexit as an issue (by supporting it) leading to many UKIP voters going to Labour. Therefore rowing back on supporting Brexit or threatening it's delivery for party advantage would most likely lose those voters. It is very messy.

 

[CheeseRolls]

It's worth repeating so many times because so many people seem to want to ignore it.

Parliament has already been promised a vote. It's a given many will be dissatisfied with the final agreement (assuming there is one) but the choice will be accept the deal or leave on WTO terms .. which should concentrate a few minds. Corbyn, like the Tories leads a divided party and has significant internal opposition to his line on Brexit. More importantly part of his recent electoral success was nullyfing Brexit as an issue (by supporting it) leading to many UKIP voters going to Labour. Therefore rowing back on supporting Brexit or threatening it's delivery for party advantage would most likely lose those voters. It is very messy.

1 Whatever
2 Fair enough it is possible, but without a strong majority, something fairly major is going to have to change for this to work out.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

That post reads completely anti-Brexit, and I agree. Eight years of uncertainty, probable disadvantage and possible chaos. Eight years. Eight bloody years. And that's from a Brexiter. How many thought that they were voting for 8 years of fannying about?

It is impossible to escape the fact that nobody had a plan on how to negociate a Brexit. The disappointing thing is that a year after May came to 'power' we have not moved on an inch. On thing is particularly disturbing - instead of banishing Boris to the back benches, there he is, in a leadership role. Having been too 'frit' to stand as leader once, what deluded political ambition does he still harbour, and how much will this influence his work place performance? From posts above it seems that showboating and hubris are his defaults. Not good at all.

Just setting out a realistic timeline for anyone wanting a second referendum with the maximum amount of information available .. so they could supposedly make a fully informed judgement on Brexit

Whereas if someone only wanted another referendum to reverse the first one they would call for it if a few polls were turning against Brexit .. at any point in the next 18 months.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Just setting out a realistic timeline for anyone wanting a second referendum with the maximum amount of information available .. so they could supposedly make a fully informed judgement on Brexit

Whereas if someone only wanted another referendum to reverse the first one they would call for it if a few polls were turning against Brexit .. at any point in the next 18 months.

Out of interest, what would be your view if there was an election before March 2019 and it was won by a party that had offered a 'vote on the deal' referendum in its manifesto?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Out of interest, what would be your view if there was an election before March 2019 and it was won by a party that had offered a 'vote on the deal' referendum in its manifesto?

Wouldn't be happy about it but I would have to accept it .. that's democracy.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Wouldn't be happy about it but I would have to accept it .. that's democracy.

Thanks.

 

[nicko31]

This is a classic.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/james-obrien-brexit-voter_uk_59638b97e4b0615b9e9319e7?

We used own three thirds of the world.....

 

[Blue3]

Ryan air just said if no agreement reached between EU and UK regarding free travel they will be cancelling passengers tickets for 2019

 

[ManOfSussex]

We used own three thirds of the world.....

Even better than when David Davis said last year after Brexit that we'll have new deals with trade areas 'probably 10 times the size' of The EU.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

facts are we're leaving the EU, get a grip !! a bit of short term pain for a lot of long term gain PUTTING THE GREAT back into Britain, if you don't like it sling your hook AND GET ACROSS THE CHANNEL FOR YOUR FIX OF EU DICTATORSHIP.
regards
DR

Great Britain - Grand Bretagne. It was named so, to distinguish it from Bretagne (Brittany)

When was Britain great, politically?

 

[daveinprague]

Its that Brexit 'probably, maybe, could do, possibly, lets wait and see what happens' strategy

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Three questions for Brexit supporters.

1. If the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' positon strengthens our leverage with the EU (arguable but let's assume it does), then what will be the consequences for subsequent UK negotiating position if and when we get no deal? Surely we will be perceived by future trade partners as pretty damned desperate and be taken to the cleaners? Ah - but we have the skills of Fox, Davis and Johnson at our disposal..............so no problem?

2. Has anyone got any idea of the time-lag between losing our deals with the EU and gaining new export markets/deals? Surely no-one believes that we can simply smoothly transition from one to the other, if only because the one we are kissing goodbye to is a collective one and any new arrangements will be piecemeal and a series of bi-lateral agreements with different partners? (By the way Japan signed a free trade deal recently with.................the EU! We will of course lose all the 3rd party free trade deals we enjoyed as a member state of the EU.)

3. And did anyone (on either side) foresee the potentially crippling likely exit costs of leaving the EU? Perhaps the Remainers dare not mention it for fear of ramping up the 'Project Fear' smear? And the Brexit camp perhaps simply didn't see it coming or were and are in denial. And if we ignore the exit costs then we are indeed in 'no deal' territory?

I think that Project Fear was counterbalanced by Project Wildly Over-Optimistic & Naïve With a Dash of Negligence. At least UKIP had just one card to play - the migration one. But some of the the Tories surely knew the economic consequences..............and I'm not referring to all the money that would be freed up to spend on the NHS which we await with anticipation.

 

[CHAPPERS]

Q: Will you be sending the position papers you get from the European commission to parliament? And how will you be reporting back on the talks?

Davis says his aim is to report back to the Commons after each stage of the talks.

There are talks next week. If they finish on Wednesday, he will report back to MPs on Thursday. If they end on Thursday, he won’t report back to MPs until September, because of the summer recess.

So a 6 week delay? Don't be ****ing stupid.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Just setting out a realistic timeline for anyone wanting a second referendum with the maximum amount of information available .. so they could supposedly make a fully informed judgement on Brexit

Whereas if someone only wanted another referendum to reverse the first one they would call for it if a few polls were turning against Brexit .. at any point in the next 18 months.

On that basis, having been a 'move-on-er', albeit without much enthusiasm to say the last, I have finally been convinced by you that we do need another referendum. Of course if we 'give it time' as you imply, by the time it is all signed off it will be way too late to stop the bandwagon so, yes, another referndum soon seems to me to be the only sensible answer to your 'give it 8 years and then see' strategy) .

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Great Britain - Grand Bretagne. It was named so, to distinguish it from Bretagne (Brittany)

When was Britain great, politically?

Ask him a sensible question and you'll get no answer. It is conversation, Captain Kirk, but not as we know it.

 

[nicko31]

Ryan air just said if no agreement reached between EU and UK regarding free travel they will be cancelling passengers tickets for 2019

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/06/ryanair-uk-flights-brexit-deal-wto

Yeap, business is slowly turning the screw. Better hope we get lots more summers like this one

 

[Jim in the West]

Ryan air just said if no agreement reached between EU and UK regarding free travel they will be cancelling passengers tickets for 2019

That's obvious, because there will be no agreement under which flights can operate between the U.K. and the EU. If we (as May has said) we don't want to be under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, then we have to leave the ECAA, and then negotiate our rights to fly. Crazy. But that's what the Brexiteers have condemned us to.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Even better than when David Davis said last year after Brexit that we'll have new deals with trade areas 'probably 10 times the size' of The EU.

I think he was aiming for the moon.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Ask him a sensible question and you'll get no answer. It is conversation, Captain Kirk, but not as we know it.

I know, but I like to drop these little nuggets of knowledge in, more in hope than anything.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Three questions for Brexit supporters.

1. If the 'no deal is better than a bad deal' positon strengthens our leverage with the EU (arguable but let's assume it does), then what will be the consequences for subsequent UK negotiating position if and when we get no deal? Surely we will be perceived by future trade partners as pretty damned desperate and be taken to the cleaners? Ah - but we have the skills of Fox, Davis and Johnson at our disposal..............so no problem?

2. Has anyone got any idea of the time-lag between losing our deals with the EU and gaining new export markets/deals? Surely no-one believes that we can simply smoothly transition from one to the other, if only because the one we are kissing goodbye to is a collective one and any new arrangements will be piecemeal and a series of bi-lateral agreements with different partners? (By the way Japan signed a free trade deal recently with.................the EU! We will of course lose all the 3rd party free trade deals we enjoyed as a member state of the EU.)

3. And did anyone (on either side) foresee the potentially crippling likely exit costs of leaving the EU? Perhaps the Remainers dare not mention it for fear of ramping up the 'Project Fear' smear? And the Brexit camp perhaps simply didn't see it coming or were and are in denial. And if we ignore the exit costs then we are indeed in 'no deal' territory?

I think that Project Fear was counterbalanced by Project Wildly Over-Optimistic & Naïve With a Dash of Negligence. At least UKIP had just one card to play - the migration one. But some of the the Tories surely knew the economic consequences..............and I'm not referring to all the money that would be freed up to spend on the NHS which we await with anticipation.

All hypothetical obviously.

1.) Or will the perception be 'blimey they wouldn't bend over and accept any old deal with their biggest trading partner so we shouldn't push to hard if we really want a deal'

2.) There will obviously be a transition period but the new deals will involve two sides negotiating positions/priorities not 29. Nations including the one with the biggest economy have already said they are looking for swift deals. Is it 100% certain all the benefits of third party deals will automatically end?

3.) The exit costs are unknown until we finalise a deal and if we do leave with no deal the EU gets diddly squat and has a sudden huge black hole in their current and projected funding , which is one reason why I doubt we will end up with no deal.

Project Fear was woefully OTT and backfired, I don't remember any big campaign saying a smooth, pain free transition to sunny uplands was guaranteed but I do remember them saying a country the size of the UK can prosper outside the EU as an independent nation state like the vast majority of major countries around the world do.