[Politics] Brexit

[Soulman]

I think most knew this anyway but like sheep have to keep trotting out the same scare stories. How dare Britain keep all these jobs and more coming in as well. Its should be all doom I say all doom !!!!

Britain should stop pretending that Brexit is compatible with staying in the single market, and decide its own immigration policy, a former governor of the Bank of England said on Monday.

Mervyn King, who was the Bank's chief for ten years until 2013, told the BBC's Today programme that all sides should look at the vote to leave the EU as a positive opportunity.

"There are opportunities to Brexit that we should take... and I think we should look at it in a more self-confident way than either side does at the moment," he said.

"I don't think it makes sense for us to pretend that we should remain in the single market, and I think there are real question marks about whether we should stay in the customs union."
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-12-26/...rnor-staying-in-single-market-makes-no-sense/

 

[studio150]

A quiet few days on this thread and then suddenly although they don't like or trust 'experts' we now get a deluge of leavers quoting 'experts' because they now believe these 'experts' back their views.

No doubt they will be saying the opposite in January

 

[portslade seagull]

A quiet few days on this thread and then suddenly although they don't like or trust 'experts' we now get a deluge of leavers quoting 'experts' because they now believe these 'experts' back their views.

No doubt they will be saying the opposite in January

These experts seem to have changed views though and see things are not as bad as predicted

 

[GT49er]

A quiet few days on this thread and then suddenly although they don't like or trust 'experts' we now get a deluge of leavers quoting 'experts' because they now believe these 'experts' back their views.

No doubt they will be saying the opposite in January

It's the experts that are changing their minds, not us leavers.

 

[Soulman]

These experts seem to have changed views though and see things are not as bad as predicted

You know it is not fair posting cheery post vote opinions on here. Please get back to the doom and gloom which has obviously been happening post Brexit vote..... or not.

 

[Baldseagull]

Britain should stop pretending that Brexit is compatible with staying in the single market, and decide its own immigration policy, a former governor of the Bank of England said on Monday.

Mervyn King, who was the Bank's chief for ten years until 2013, told the BBC's Today programme that all sides should look at the vote to leave the EU as a positive opportunity.

"There are opportunities to Brexit that we should take... and I think we should look at it in a more self-confident way than either side does at the moment," he said.

"I don't think it makes sense for us to pretend that we should remain in the single market, and I think there are real question marks about whether we should stay in the customs union."
http://www.itv.com/news/2016-12-26/...rnor-staying-in-single-market-makes-no-sense/

And then the article gives voice to someone who worked alongside him, who rubbishes all that he said.

 

[Soulman]

And then the article gives voice to someone who worked alongside him, who rubbishes all that he said.

I know, you can choose. King seemed to do ok as the governor of the Bank Of England all those years, perhaps his opinion is not rubbish, but the opinion of someone who "worked alongside him" is.

 

[Baldseagull]

I am starting to wonder if Theresa May is playing a blinder.
I think that maybe she knows, and has known all along that she would lose the Court case, and that Parliamentary consent will be needed for us to officially tell the EU we wish to leave. I believe her public stance that "Brexit means Brexit" is just for show, she wants the single market but knows that means freedom of movement for people. I reckon she is relying on Parliament to insist upon the highest possible access to the single market, she can then deliver a soft Brexit and not send us backwards 15 years, keeping most remainers relatively happy, but will be able to claim that her hands were tied by parliament, and deflect the wrath of the hard leave voter onto parliament, and have a decent chance of re-election.
If she gets given a free hand by the court, then the deal is all down to her and her team, and I can't see her getting one that will suit many people.

 

[GT49er]

I am starting to wonder if Theresa May is playing a blinder.
I think that maybe she knows, and has known all along that she would lose the Court case, and that Parliamentary consent will be needed for us to officially tell the EU we wish to leave. I believe her public stance that "Brexit means Brexit" is just for show, she wants the single market but knows that means freedom of movement for people. I reckon she is relying on Parliament to insist upon the highest possible access to the single market, she can then deliver a soft Brexit and not send us backwards 15 years, keeping most remainers relatively happy, but will be able to claim that her hands were tied by parliament, and deflect the wrath of the hard leave voter onto parliament, and have a decent chance of re-election.
If she gets given a free hand by the court, then the deal is all down to her and her team, and I can't see her getting one that will suit many people.

Well, saying one thing and doing another over Europe would just be Thatcher Mk II - "Up your's, Delours - but sorry, that was just for publicity back home. Now where's this Single European Act that you want me to sign?" Hopefully I'm right, but I think this PM might just be better than her famous and odious predecessor.

 

[larus]

There won't be free movement (not in the current guise). This would cause such a backlash, as this was one of the main arguments for leave. I know that we will continue to have immigration after we leave, but this will be more controlled (we need immigration due to demographics and the lies of previous generations about pensions etc. but that's a separate topic).

And, as we know there can be no access to the single market without free trade, so it an only be a Hard exit. Unless there is some softening from the EU side, I do struggle to any other outcome.

However, I feel as though there a many more opportunities beyond the EU. It's stagnant and requires huge changes, but I can't see them happening. If we can get trade agreements around the world for financial services, this would be a huge life for the economy. At present, these aren't high on the priorities of the EU negotiating team, as they only really benefit the UK.

I'm happy with WTO rules for trading with the EU. We will still be able to trade - it's not as if we are suddenly excluded from trading with these countries which is how so many seem to portray/interpret the hard BREXIT outcome.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

These experts seem to have changed views though and see things are not as bad as predicted

Speaking of experts changing their tune I note the CBI have gone from referendum campaign predictions of nearly a million job losses by 2020 to admitting 41% percent of companies surveyed will be expecting to increase recruitment next year, 44% saying no change to their current plans. Only 13% expecting to reduce staff numbers.

Plus the economy actually grew faster than previously thought in the 3 months after the vote with services, industrial and construction sectors all revised upwards.

And yes I know we haven't left yet but some project fear predictions of fire and brimstone were specifically made about the aftermath of the vote.

 

[Baldseagull]

There won't be free movement (not in the current guise). This would cause such a backlash, as this was one of the main arguments for leave. I know that we will continue to have immigration after we leave, but this will be more controlled (we need immigration due to demographics and the lies of previous generations about pensions etc. but that's a separate topic).

And, as we know there can be no access to the single market without free trade, so it an only be a Hard exit. Unless there is some softening from the EU side, I do struggle to any other outcome.

However, I feel as though there a many more opportunities beyond the EU. It's stagnant and requires huge changes, but I can't see them happening. If we can get trade agreements around the world for financial services, this would be a huge life for the economy. At present, these aren't high on the priorities of the EU negotiating team, as they only really benefit the UK.

I'm happy with WTO rules for trading with the EU. We will still be able to trade - it's not as if we are suddenly excluded from trading with these countries which is how so many seem to portray/interpret the hard BREXIT outcome.

There are two industries that will be hit particularly hard by not having the same status in the EU, Financial Services and Aviation. Whilst we should not be so reliant on FS to support the economy, the fact is we are.

 

[Soulman]

There are two industries that will be hit particularly hard by not having the same status in the EU, Financial Services and Aviation. Whilst we should not be so reliant on FS to support the economy, the fact is we are.

Two amongst how many other services and industries that are doing well or improving.

 

[larus]

There are two industries that will be hit particularly hard by not having the same status in the EU, Financial Services and Aviation. Whilst we should not be so reliant on FS to support the economy, the fact is we are.

Excuse me if I take their wailing with a bucket of salt. We've been told this many times before (such as if we don't join the Euro), so I don't believe this one bit. If there is a case to be made for experienced staff to be allowed into the country to work post Brexit, this WILL happen.

The size of the world GDP of the EU area is shrinking. It's gone from 31.4% in 2004 to 23.8% in 2014. In all probability, it's shrunk even more by now. As Financial Services aren't something which the rest of the EU pushes in their trade negotiations, we will be able to strike more deals with the remaining 76.2% of the world when we are negotiating as an independent country.

Again, just my opinion, but so far all I've seen is fear and doom which has come to a total big zero. All that we have had is an adjustment in the value of Sterling (which was widely reported as being overvalued before the vote) and several reports are now saying that (excluding any short-term drop which will happen once Brexit gets triggered), the value of Sterling will increase over the next few years. However, how much trust can be put in predictions of economists/bankers as, lets be totally honest here, their track record is f***ing crap. The economy is doing better than predicted (not a debate as to whether it's doing well or if everyone is benefiting BTW).

 

[Soulman]

Excuse me if I take their wailing with a bucket of salt. We've been told this many times before (such as if we don't join the Euro), so I don't believe this one bit. If there is a case to be made for experienced staff to be allowed into the country to work post Brexit, this WILL happen.

The size of the world GDP of the EU area is shrinking. It's gone from 31.4% in 2004 to 23.8% in 2014. In all probability, it's shrunk even more by now. As Financial Services aren't something which the rest of the EU pushes in their trade negotiations, we will be able to strike more deals with the remaining 76.2% of the world when we are negotiating as an independent country.

Again, just my opinion, but so far all I've seen is fear and doom which has come to a total big zero. All that we have had is an adjustment in the value of Sterling (which was widely reported as being overvalued before the vote) and several reports are now saying that (excluding any short-term drop which will happen once Brexit gets triggered), the value of Sterling will increase over the next few years. However, how much trust can be put in predictions of economists/bankers as, lets be totally honest here, their track record is f***ing crap. The economy is doing better than predicted (not a debate as to whether it's doing well or if everyone is benefiting BTW).

Good post.

 

[Baldseagull]

Well, saying one thing and doing another over Europe would just be Thatcher Mk II - "Up your's, Delours - but sorry, that was just for publicity back home. Now where's this Single European Act that you want me to sign?" Hopefully I'm right, but I think this PM might just be better than her famous and odious predecessor.

It was the other way round, she signed up to the Single European act years before getting upset with Delors. At various times she seemed to hold every view possible, for and against.

 

[Bob'n'weave]

Excuse me if I take their wailing with a bucket of salt. We've been told this many times before (such as if we don't join the Euro), so I don't believe this one bit. If there is a case to be made for experienced staff to be allowed into the country to work post Brexit, this WILL happen.

The size of the world GDP of the EU area is shrinking. It's gone from 31.4% in 2004 to 23.8% in 2014. In all probability, it's shrunk even more by now. As Financial Services aren't something which the rest of the EU pushes in their trade negotiations, we will be able to strike more deals with the remaining 76.2% of the world when we are negotiating as an independent country.

Again, just my opinion, but so far all I've seen is fear and doom which has come to a total big zero. All that we have had is an adjustment in the value of Sterling (which was widely reported as being overvalued before the vote) and several reports are now saying that (excluding any short-term drop which will happen once Brexit gets triggered), the value of Sterling will increase over the next few years. However, how much trust can be put in predictions of economists/bankers as, lets be totally honest here, their track record is f***ing crap. The economy is doing better than predicted (not a debate as to whether it's doing well or if everyone is benefiting BTW).

Totally agree. It's difficult to accept the scaremongering economists bullshit anymore. IMHO anything done to make our exit painful will hurt remaining member states far more than us and would probably trigger more discontent for the EU, not something they want at all. To suggest we will not be able to trade effectively with the EU is total bollocks.

 

[vegster]

Speaking of experts changing their tune I note the CBI have gone from referendum campaign predictions of nearly a million job losses by 2020 to admitting 41% percent of companies surveyed will be expecting to increase recruitment next year, 44% saying no change to their current plans. Only 13% expecting to reduce staff numbers.

Plus the economy actually grew faster than previously thought in the 3 months after the vote with services, industrial and construction sectors all revised upwards.

And yes I know we haven't left yet but some project fear predictions of fire and brimstone were specifically made about the aftermath of the vote.

Early days yet, when Trump and Brexit starts there might well be stock market and currency wobbles and instability. When that happens and the price of our imports rise again since the last £ and $ slide shops will have to pass this on to customers.... When our bills go up and the JAM's stop spending that is when things will start to bite. I think we have all been drinking in the Last Chance Saloon this Christmas and going on a final spending splurge which has skewed the figures. When the credit card bills start rolling in in January and we start to pay the bills that's when we may well hit the buffers.

 

[Baldseagull]

Excuse me if I take their wailing with a bucket of salt. We've been told this many times before (such as if we don't join the Euro), so I don't believe this one bit. If there is a case to be made for experienced staff to be allowed into the country to work post Brexit, this WILL happen.

The size of the world GDP of the EU area is shrinking. It's gone from 31.4% in 2004 to 23.8% in 2014. In all probability, it's shrunk even more by now. As Financial Services aren't something which the rest of the EU pushes in their trade negotiations, we will be able to strike more deals with the remaining 76.2% of the world when we are negotiating as an independent country.

Again, just my opinion, but so far all I've seen is fear and doom which has come to a total big zero. All that we have had is an adjustment in the value of Sterling (which was widely reported as being overvalued before the vote) and several reports are now saying that (excluding any short-term drop which will happen once Brexit gets triggered), the value of Sterling will increase over the next few years. However, how much trust can be put in predictions of economists/bankers as, lets be totally honest here, their track record is f***ing crap. The economy is doing better than predicted (not a debate as to whether it's doing well or if everyone is benefiting BTW).

Nice of you to put in bold the crucial element to a steady rise in the value of the pound, a steep drop first.
Of course there will be a rise, when you hit bottom, the only way is up.
I would like to add something to your point about the EU not doing much in providing FS access in trade deals. Britain has the ability to push for things to be included in deals, if a bunch of Walloons can hold up a deal with Canada over their concerns, do you think a British government, the second largest contributor to EU coffers, might have been able to steer things a bit more in our favour, if they could be bothered?
This is a failing of British Governments, instead of engaging and getting other nations onside, we have always tried to get special exemptions for Britain from this or that, rather than try to shape the EU, we have let it go, as long as we did not have to get involved in that area.

You now have to trust the people that failed to make the EU work for Britain as well as it should have, to get the best out of new arrangements with the rest of the world.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Speaking of experts changing their tune I note the CBI have gone from referendum campaign predictions of nearly a million job losses by 2020 to admitting 41% percent of companies surveyed will be expecting to increase recruitment next year, 44% saying no change to their current plans. Only 13% expecting to reduce staff numbers.

Plus the economy actually grew faster than previously thought in the 3 months after the vote with services, industrial and construction sectors all revised upwards.

And yes I know we haven't left yet but some project fear predictions of fire and brimstone were specifically made about the aftermath of the vote.

Yes great news indeed - we have a bright future ahead of us.