[Politics] Brexit

[Lincoln Imp]

Noticed the the EU has failed to get another trade deal passed now with Canada. This was rejected in a regional parliament in Belgium, so can't be ratified.

This is the problem with the EU. It wants to act as a COUNTRY, but it's not, it's still a group of nation states, with nationalistic politics still the overriding factor.

The reality is we are unlikely to be able to negotiate a trade deal in 2 years with the EU. The evidence is clear; they want to punish us and any decent deal will need ratification by all 27 countries. They can't get TAFT agreed and now the Canadian deal looks dead too.

Outside of the EU, we should look to build new trade deals with other countries. Trade deals are in everyones interest, but the EU is a protectionist structure, so why bother? Before anyone says about how much of our trade is with the EU, I know. But not having a trade agreement doesn't stop us trading, we can still trade with them on WTO terms. It looks highly unlikely that we would be able to negotiate a deal within the time allowed, and even Donald Tusk has said it's either Hard Brexit or stay in the EU.

Yes, we are unlikely to be able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU in two years if we insist on special terms regarding freedom of movement. Everyone knows that. They always have. Except of course the shedloads of Brexit posters - plenty on NSC - who droned on and on for months and months about how the EU would be absolutely gagging to do a deal with us and BMW would never allow Merkel to stop their exports and the whole continent was ruled by Germany and small countries have jack-all influence over anything and all Remainers were doom-believing prats for suggesting otherwise. The tone has now flipped. Stand by for the charge that the EU are only being horrible to us because they hate us - this will be the bile-filled line of the tabloids for the next two years and their readers will want to believe every last line of it.


PS Your Donald Tusk reference is misleading I'm afraid. Tusk did indeed say it was Hard Brexit or stay in the EU but this was a direct reaction to recent indications by the British government that it was not interested in a Soft Brexit. Take Soft Brexit out of the equation and, yes, you are left with only Hard Brexit or stay in the EU. The government, no one else, has constructed this phoney binary choice.

 

[larus]

PS Your Donald Tusk reference is misleading I'm afraid. Tusk did indeed say it was Hard Brexit or stay in the EU but this was a direct reaction to recent indications by the British government that it was not interested in a Soft Brexit. Take Soft Brexit out of the equation and, yes, you are left with only Hard Brexit or stay in the EU. The government, no one else, has constructed this phoney binary choice.

Maybe that is why he said that, but free movement was a major concern during the referendum, so the government (who, by the way, backed Remain) are trying to adhere to the perceived general views of the voters. There may be many Remainers who are also opposed to the Free Movement, but voted Remain out of fear.

However, there has been strong language from the drunkard (Juncker) and Holland in terms of punishing the UK, so the general point stands.

There is no chance of a Soft Exit as it's politically untenable to retain Free Movement. Without Free Movement, there is unlikely to be an acceptable trade deal, so it does look like Hard Brexit.

One thing to bear in mind is that the general state of the world economy is poor. Ever at the end of the current 'expansion' post the 2008 crisis, we are in a situation of central banks still needing to use QE and governments running large deficits. So, when the next downturn hits (which it will), there is no ammunition left in the leading economies of the world. Brexit, in my opinion, is a minor risk at this junction compares to :
China - over reliance upon debt.
Italy - Debt/GDP ration, insolvent banks.
Portugal - rolling back reforms.
US Clinton/Trump.
Greece - it needs debt relief or to leave the EURO.
France - Le Pen.
Germany - AfD plus the potential blocking of any new bailouts to Greece without IMF involvement, which the IMF won't do without debt relief.

 

[cunning fergus]

Yes, we are unlikely to be able to negotiate a trade deal with the EU in two years if we insist on special terms regarding freedom of movement. Everyone knows that. They always have. Except of course the shedloads of Brexit posters - plenty on NSC - who droned on and on for months and months about how the EU would be absolutely gagging to do a deal with us and BMW would never allow Merkel to stop their exports and the whole continent was ruled by Germany and small countries have jack-all influence over anything and all Remainers were doom-believing prats for suggesting otherwise. The tone has now flipped. Stand by for the charge that the EU are only being horrible to us because they hate us - this will be the bile-filled line of the tabloids for the next two years and their readers will want to believe every last line of it.


PS Your Donald Tusk reference is misleading I'm afraid. Tusk did indeed say it was Hard Brexit or stay in the EU but this was a direct reaction to recent indications by the British government that it was not interested in a Soft Brexit. Take Soft Brexit out of the equation and, yes, you are left with only Hard Brexit or stay in the EU. The government, no one else, has constructed this phoney binary choice.

You are re-writing history.

The narrative of remain supporters during Brexit was that a vote for leave was a vote to exit the single market.

In fact, Cameron was unequivocal that it was a binary choice for voters.

http://www.politico.eu/article/davi...eu-referendum-vote-june-23-consequences-news/

Soft Brexit is just a ruse by remain to continue to have the existing relationship we have with the EU now but masquerading as leave.

I am not debating the pros and cons of that choice but don't try to conjure up a story about how leave was for a soft Brexit........it simply wasn't.

 

[fat old seagull]

"They WILL punish our audacity"........ seeing as the exports to us from the EU outweighs our exports to them, will they have the audacity to punish us, hopefully we will have the audacity to punish them back.

Keep banging the drum....give it two years. You'll be playing the harmonica in Little England.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Keep banging the drum....give it two years. You'll be playing the harmonica in Little England.

It's a great pity that you have such a low opinion of our great country.

 

[fat old seagull]

The EU hierarchy are only interested in themselves and the gravy train they have built over the years. The UK has put a spoke in these currupted wheels and they do not like it one bit

No they don't like it, but don't think for a moment that the EU is feebler than the UK in market terms. There are a great number posting on here that somehow believe Great Britain is still living in Colonial Times. We are and have been for some time now a shrinking and small state, whose influence is disappearing rapidly. We need to tailor our existence to the World as it IS not as it was.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

No they don't like it, but don't think for a moment that the EU is feebler than the UK in market terms. There are a great number posting on here that somehow believe Great Britain is still living in Colonial Times. We are and have been for some time now a shrinking and small state, whose influence is disappearing rapidly. We need to tailor our existence to the World as it IS not as it was.

Why can you not see the EU for what it is and not as though it's a great colonial power? It is a busted flush. Please enlighten us on how well the EU economies are doing, in particular the southern and most western states. Tell us about European debt and unemployment rates. I don't expect an answer in truth.

 

[beorhthelm]

There are a great number posting on here that somehow believe Great Britain is still living in Colonial Times.

who? dont think anyone has ever said this. are you deliberatly misunderstanding people who might suggest trade with ex-colonials, especially those growing, would be a positive?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

who? dont think anyone has ever said this. are you deliberatly misunderstanding people who might suggest trade with ex-colonials, especially those growing, would be a positive?

The only people talking like that are remainers who like to stereotype people as it makes them feel justified in their rage against the democratic wishes of the English people.

 

[Soulman]

Keep banging the drum....give it two years. You'll be playing the harmonica in Little England.

That's the spirit complete faith.

 

[BigGully]

Is that the limit of Brexit, to survive?

Name a country within the European geographical area that is prospering outside of the EU without having agreements with the EU about freedom of movement, or without paying substantial money to the EU to effectively buy 'free trade'? Any other country you refer to, maybe Canada or Australia, is in an entirely different geographical area of the world and will almost certainly have trading agreements with its near neighbours, Canada with the US, and Australia with south east Asia. Even if deals can be done with other major manufacturing bases years down the line there will always be the vastly increased logistical costs that need to be factored in. Who do you suggest we should aim to have trade deal with, India, Brazil, Nigeria? Well I am sure that they won't quite carry the same benefits as deals with our EU neighbours.

Yeah, the remoaners continue to bleat, but just to make sure that everyone realises the enormous challenges this country faces, and also to ensure the Brexitiers are unable to sweep problems under the carpet, dust themselves down and say 'nothing to do with me'.

You mean as compared to the the EU ...... really.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

It's a great pity that you have such a low opinion of our great country.

Yawn

 

[wellquickwoody]

Yes the fall in the pound is something the remoaners can focus on to confirm there unwavering certainty that Brexit will be calamitous.

To be fair, you seem entirely blind to the fact that there must be some downsides to Brexitiers. Even if a hundred positive things happen after leaving the EU, there must by the law of averages be a few things that are negative by comparison, but you don't seem to acknowledge this?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Yawn

Continually running the country down is not worthy of a 'yawn'.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Continually running the country down is not worthy of a 'yawn'.

I notice this somewhat selective criticism is being used by a number of Brexiteers now. What's up, have you run out of argument?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

First it was being offered complimentary pre-flight Prosecco instead of champagne. Now the price of lobster has rocketed. Brexit is starting to bite hard.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I notice this somewhat selective criticism is being used by a number of Brexiteers now. What's up, have you run out of argument?

I'm mostly tired of arguing. However many comments are worthy of a considered response. The kind of comment I dislike has no substance. Such as the country is f*cked, blah blah little Englanders, just as you'd dislike a comment that simply said all remainers are bad losers or the country will definitely prosper now etc.

Nothing is set in stone. We don't know that all will end up rosy after leaving the EU, but neither do we know it will be a disaster.

 

[Soulman]

First it was being offered complimentary pre-flight Prosecco instead of champagne. Now the price of lobster has rocketed. Brexit is starting to bite hard.

Give it a rest, you don't even live here. Stop trying to wind up those that do.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

continually running the country down is not worthy of a 'yawn'.

another Lord Haw Haw ........
regards
DR

 

[The Merry Prankster]

I'm mostly tired of arguing. However many comments are worthy of a considered response. The kind of comment I dislike has no substance. Such as the country is f*cked, blah blah little Englanders, just as you'd dislike a comment that simply said all remainers are bad losers or the country will definitely prosper now etc.

Nothing is set in stone. We don't know that all will end up rosy after leaving the EU, but neither do we know it will be a disaster.

The one I get fed up of is "bad loser" like it was some kind of Corinthians' match. Those of us who are losing money and having to lay off good, hard working, by and large British workers who have no hope currently of re-employment have, I feel, every right to continue to make a protest against this self inflicted wound and the problems it is causing, yet I continue to hear that we should be applauding politely whilst forming a guard of honour.

**** that. Every time we have to sack someone I want to punch a Brexiteer.