[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

The UK would be "permanently poorer" outside the European Union, Chancellor George Osborne has warned ahead of the in-out vote on membership on 23 June.
A Treasury analysis on the cost of an EU exit will say UK national income could be 6% smaller - the equivalent of £4,300 a year per household - by 2030.
Mr Osborne said the report, being published on Monday, "steps away from the rhetoric" and sets out the facts.

Nice to see some of those who have been claiming Osborne is the Devil incarnate are now warmly embracing him and his ludicrous assertions... shameless hypocrisy.

 

[Triggaaar]

At least we have had no major wars within the EU borders since 1945 How long would it be before Russia starts piling in again if thd EU broke up. It's a dreadful prospect...

I find it sad that you can believe something like that and then cast a vote that will damage our country. We are not under threat from Russia.

£4300 is a lot that few families can afford to lose. 6% contraction of the economy would be a disaster for UK plc. Think about it.

No greg, you think about it - when the election comes round and the Tories and Labour through completely contradictory predictions at each other, who do you believe? Hopefully none of it, as each side will be cherry picking stats and twisting them to try and back their side of the argument, and the same obviously happens here (on both sides of the argument). It will be my kids and the future of the UK I'm thinking about when I vote out.

The other terrible aspect is that the Tories would have to introduce a worse austerity programme.

That's the beauty of it, we can get rid of them if we want, because we're a democracy! We can't do that in the EU, this is our one and only chance to vote out.

Exactly. The Outers need to stop believing the crap written in the Daily Mail and the Express.

I wouldn't dream of basing my thoughts on the shit they write. You need to stop believing the nonsense this Tory government are telling you.

 

[beorhthelm]

Isn't it reported as the equivalent of an average of £4,300 per household per year?

no, its the equivalent of 6% GDP cumulative effect by 2030. there's plenty of additional costs from being in the EU between now and then, but they wont put that in their analysis. tis broadly inline with the PWC calculations, this isn't a disaster to the economy its within the error margin of normal predictions.

 

[drew]

no, its the equivalent of 6% GDP cumulative effect by 2030. there's plenty of additional costs from being in the EU between now and then, but they wont put that in their analysis. tis broadly inline with the PWC calculations, this isn't a disaster to the economy its within the error margin of normal predictions.

Aren't they saying that, by 2030 our economy will be 6% smaller and that that is equivalent to an annual reduction of an average of £4300?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36068892

Far from your simple sum of £4,300 / 13 years / 12 months to get to your £27.

 

[The Rivet]

no, its the equivalent of 6% GDP cumulative effect by 2030. there's plenty of additional costs from being in the EU between now and then, but they wont put that in their analysis. tis broadly inline with the PWC calculations, this isn't a disaster to the economy its within the error margin of normal predictions.

If you just took it at face value. £4,300 down by 2030 equates to £5.90 a week. The cost of a pint in some establishments. If you vote away sovereignty for the price of a pint you are crazy.

 

[sparkie]

If you just took it at face value. £4,300 down by 2030 equates to £5.90 a week. The cost of a pint in some establishments. If you vote away sovereignty for the price of a pint you are crazy.

4,300 per year is more than a pint a week

 

[The Rivet]

4,300 per year is more than a pint a week

You think it would be £4,300 pa, seriously?

 

[5ways]

By continuing as we are there is no change of reforming the EU, we'll just march on towards federalisation. There's more chance of the EU being reformed if we vote to leave, it's the only way to stop the US of E.

I don't think that is the case. If we leave the EU shifts towards a Southern European centre of gravity. This is worse for the UK if we vote out because we will see less competitiveness in our near neighbor. We are an excellent counter-weight to what you might call a French approach and to further integration.

 

[sparkie]

You think it would be £4,300 pa, seriously?

I don't know. That is what it says in the press today.

 

[5ways]

Excellent demolition by George Osborne. Hammered home some great points -

He challenged the Leave campaign to produce any reputable body or international partner saying Britain could leave the EU without economic cost.

"Just in the last week, we’ve had the IMF, we’ve had the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, we’ve had the OECD, we’ve had businesses like Lloyds Bank, we’ve had academics come out and all say the same thing [Brexit would harm the economy.] I would say to those arguing we should leave, where is your document? Where is your assessment? Where is your economic analysis? Where is a single ally or trading partner or credible international organisation that thinks it is a good idea for Britain to leave the European Union?

This is for you, Pastafarian

He said France and Germany would never allow the UK to have full access to the single market without having to accept conditions like free movement.

What I would reject, however, is the idea that Britain can sign up to some kind of deal where we get all the benefits of European Union membership, but none of the obligations or costs. The Germans or French would not give that to us because it is a better deal than Germany or France and it is not credible. You completely misunderstand Britain’s negotiating hand if you think we could get a better deal than France or Germany. It is just not credible.

On the Canada option:
The Treasury’s document says British families could eventually be worse of by £4,300 a year if the UK adopted a Canadian-style free trade deal - as originally proposed by Boris Johnson. That is because a Canada deal would involve tariffs on services and some goods, at a long-term cost to growth. In his Today interview Osborne effectively threw down the gauntlet to Leave, saying that if they did not accept the Canada model as their preferred way forward, they would have to come up with another. Leave campaigners claim the UK could continue to enjoy free trade arrangements similar to the status quo, but Osborne dismissed this argument.

 

[beorhthelm]

Aren't they saying that, by 2030 our economy will be 6% smaller and that that is equivalent to an annual reduction of an average of £4300?

they are saying that by 2030 the reduction in the increase of GDP would have been slightly lower to the tune of 6%. so say they predict 40% by 2030 in the EU, it will be 34% out of the EU. they put this as a cost per household at £4300. they want to make a scary headline, its not that much over the time scale they give. and they have to give a long timescale because they want to make it look scary.

 

[Triggaaar]

when the election comes round and the Tories and Labour through completely contradictory predictions at each other, who do you believe?

Throw, not through

 

[jgmcdee]

I will agree In that specific European parliament example .. the process is democratic from a European context (your perspective) but in reality not democratic from the perspective from someone who wants what you correctly highlight in the last paragraph.

That's an impressive distortion of reality. The reality is what we have now, which is that the UK is part of the EU. What you want is, as I said, all fine and dandy but the fact that you don't have it today doesn't make the EU undemocratic.

(The irony here is that if the UK does leave the EU but ends up with a trade agreement that accepts some of the EU laws without any recourse to affect them then it will become undemocratic from the UK perspective.).

 

[gregbrighton]

Excellent demolition by George Osborne. Hammered home some great points -

He challenged the Leave campaign to produce any reputable body or international partner saying Britain could leave the EU without economic cost.

"Just in the last week, we’ve had the IMF, we’ve had the monetary policy committee of the Bank of England, we’ve had the OECD, we’ve had businesses like Lloyds Bank, we’ve had academics come out and all say the same thing [Brexit would harm the economy.] I would say to those arguing we should leave, where is your document? Where is your assessment? Where is your economic analysis? Where is a single ally or trading partner or credible international organisation that thinks it is a good idea for Britain to leave the European Union?

This is for you, Pastafarian

He said France and Germany would never allow the UK to have full access to the single market without having to accept conditions like free movement.

What I would reject, however, is the idea that Britain can sign up to some kind of deal where we get all the benefits of European Union membership, but none of the obligations or costs. The Germans or French would not give that to us because it is a better deal than Germany or France and it is not credible. You completely misunderstand Britain’s negotiating hand if you think we could get a better deal than France or Germany. It is just not credible.

On the Canada option:
The Treasury’s document says British families could eventually be worse of by £4,300 a year if the UK adopted a Canadian-style free trade deal - as originally proposed by Boris Johnson. That is because a Canada deal would involve tariffs on services and some goods, at a long-term cost to growth. In his Today interview Osborne effectively threw down the gauntlet to Leave, saying that if they did not accept the Canada model as their preferred way forward, they would have to come up with another. Leave campaigners claim the UK could continue to enjoy free trade arrangements similar to the status quo, but Osborne dismissed this argument.

It's a terrible, terrible prospect from the esteemed trustworthy chancellor.

 

[5ways]

That's an impressive distortion of reality. The reality is what we have now, which is that the UK is part of the EU. What you want is, as I said, all fine and dandy but the fact that you don't have it today doesn't make the EU undemocratic.

(The irony here is that if the UK does leave the EU but ends up with a trade agreement that accepts some of the EU laws without any recourse to affect them then it will become undemocratic from the UK perspective.).

Good point. Isn't been spoon-fed regulation like Norway less democratic than actually voting on said regulation?

 

[drew]

they are saying that by 2030 the reduction in the increase of GDP would have been slightly lower to the tune of 6%. so say they predict 40% by 2030 in the EU, it will be 34% out of the EU. they put this as a cost per household at £4300. they want to make a scary headline, its not that much over the time scale they give. and they have to give a long timescale because they want to make it look scary.

So isn't their argument, whether you believe it or not, that we will be £4,300 worse off outside the EU in 2030 as opposed to being in it?

 

[beorhthelm]

So isn't their argument, whether you believe it or not, that we will be £4,300 worse off outside the EU in 2030 as opposed to being in it?

yes. im saying that a) its not as much as they want you to think, b) ignores the normal margin of error in GDP predictions (see last autumns billions in the sofa) and c) excludes any increasing costs of being in the EU. its a small financial cost weighed up against ceding powers to a foreign government.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Exactly. The Outers need to stop believing the crap written in the Daily Mail and the Express.

The millions of migrants arriving in the EU, I must be imagining things.

 

[gregbrighton]

George Osborne says income tax would go up 8p under a Brexit! I mean who would seriously want that? Families hit by losing £4.5k would surely struggle with a tax rise like that!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-will-cost-families-4300-a-year-politics-live

 

[5ways]

Well here it is - the coup de grâce

Treasury claims – The headline figure

The Treasury looked at three different scenarios for Brexit, each with different levels of tariffs and different predicted drops to economic growth. Here are the key forecasts for each.

1) The Norway option

What is it: Britain would remain part of the European Economic Area, like Norway, with access to the single market but still have to accept certain EU rules like free movement and directives agreed in Brussels.

GDP: 3.8% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £2,600
Annual lost tax revenues: £20bn

2) The Canada option

What is it: Britain would sign a bilateral free trade agreement with the EU, like the one Canada has negotiated – an example cited by Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, as a possible option.

GDP: 6.2% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £4,300
Annual lost tax revenue: £36bn

3) The World Trade Organisation option

What is it: Britain would not sign a standalone trade deal with the EU but instead rely tariff levels set by the World Trade Organistion.

GDP: 7.5% lower (than if UK stayed in EU).
Annual cost per household: £5,200
Annual lost tax revenue: £45bn

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...easury-forecasts/?cid=sf24558416&sf24558416=1