[Politics] Brexit

[Buzzer]

I keep seeing this: I'm not so sure that it will happen. The EU will surely take the longer view. "Markus Kerber, head of the BDI, dismissed claims that German companies would not tolerate trade tariffs after Britain leaves, and said Germany’s relations with the rest of the bloc were more important.

“I have read a lot of articles in the British press saying Germany would be a relatively soft negotiator because 7.5% of German exports go to Britain,” Kerber told BBC Radio 4’s today programme. “Well, 7.5% is a big number – but 92.5% goes somewhere else.”



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ot-save-britain-from-hard-brexit-warns-merke/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

My gut feel is that all sides are just talking up their negotiationing position but it would be economic suicide for either side to try to play too hard. Kerber is right, 7.5% is a huge amount and if they do make it so hard for us to buy EU goods then even a 2 or 3% drop could plunge Germany into recession. The UK is still the fastest growing economy in Europe and right now the Germans need to maintain a strong and expanding economy more than ever because there's a few chickens coming home to roost - namely the banking crisis in Italy with Monte Dei Paschi being the first of a few Italian banks that will need re-structuring. And then there's Deutsche Bank.

This worries me far more than Trump or Putin or Brexit. As a regular traveller to German businesses what's the feeling about their biggest bank. Are the Germans particularly worried about it? The banking crisis in Italy alone should be causing sleepless nights - Italy are one of the few big net contributors to the EU and with the loss of the UK's money, if Italy go from being a net contributor to net taker then that's another massive blow to the European Project.

 

[wellquickwoody]

The BBC are so negative it is unbelievable. You can here some of these presenters seething today when they have to mention that Nissan wants to build the new model at Sunderland. They just interviewed someone from Sunderland on Radio 5, and instead of the presenter saying this is great news, all he was interested in what sort of deal they where getting, waiting for anything negative to come out, so he and Bremoaner listeners can get their daily fix of doom and gloom.

You carry on believing that everything is just dandy.

 

[wellquickwoody]

We are all guessing at the moment, but if we do not do a deal where we are included in the single market as a whole, a deal will be done eventually that will include reduced or no tarriffs on some types of products, motor cars are likely to be one of the products on reduced or zero tariffs, in my opinion, because they are one of those products that require the largest possible market for scales of mass production to be effective. It is not just German made cars, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and Belgium all produce models that we buy in good numbers. It would be damaging to those countries to have the models they produce battered on price in Britain by tarriffs on top of by the Euro being stronger against the pound.

Our models also cost more per unit being right hand drive. Just complicates production so stuff Johnny Englander, he can pay extra.

 

[Gwylan]

We are all guessing at the moment, but if we do not do a deal where we are included in the single market as a whole, a deal will be done eventually that will include reduced or no tarriffs on some types of products, motor cars are likely to be one of the products on reduced or zero tariffs, in my opinion, because they are one of those products that require the largest possible market for scales of mass production to be effective. It is not just German made cars, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and Belgium all produce models that we buy in good numbers. It would be damaging to those countries to have the models they produce battered on price in Britain by tarriffs on top of by the Euro being stronger against the pound.

We are all guessing at the moment, but my take is that there will be some sort of tariff on cars. The fact that it's not just German cars is the reason that I think it: where else are going to buy cars from? The fact that we haven't got an indigenous industry and rely on foreign manufacturers is, IMHO, what's going to count against us. But we'll know for sure in a couple of years

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Not all leavers are racist, but I bet you nearly all racists voted leave.

What about the European racists?

 

[Baldseagull]

I'm curious where the huge new untapped market? What is the UK going to sell them? Where are we currently missing out due to the constraints of being tied to those nasty Europeans?

Once out of the EU we will be able to negotiate Trade agreements with anyone else, at the moment we are bound by the trade arrangements that the EU has negotiated or WTO rules where there has been no agreement concluded. It is not that the markets are untapped, just that we should get better penetration in those markets if we negotiate a good trade agreement. The downside is that it takes a long time to negotiate these deals, not all products will be tariff free, and that any deal includes giving that other party greater access to our markets, so if you get it wrong, the other party ends up damaging domestic sales and the exports we hoped to make do not materialise.
The best markets for us to get into with reduced tariffs would be the North American markets, which the EU is close to securing. Once those are signed I think it will look even dafter for us to leave.
Deals with India and China have been talked about, but I think these will be very difficult to get done, given the costs of production in those countries we would need to protect our manufacturing from being wiped out completely.

 

[Buzzer]

Not all leavers are racist, but I bet you nearly all racists voted leave.

Only if you don't think that anti-semitism is racism.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

The BBC are so negative it is unbelievable. You can here some of these presenters seething today when they have to mention that Nissan wants to build the new model at Sunderland. They just interviewed someone from Sunderland on Radio 5, and instead of the presenter saying this is great news, all he was interested in what sort of deal they where getting, waiting for anything negative to come out, so he and Bremoaner listeners can get their daily fix of doom and gloom.

The BBC should employee Mark Carney as a reporter. He is another negative person. Always predicting doom and gloom. If his forecasts were correct, I would say fair enough. But most things he predicts turns out to be wrong.

Mervyn King is far more positive about our future post Brexit. Can we have him back as governor?

 

[Baldseagull]

We are all guessing at the moment, but my take is that there will be some sort of tariff on cars. The fact that it's not just German cars is the reason that I think it: where else are going to buy cars from? The fact that we haven't got an indigenous industry and rely on foreign manufacturers is, IMHO, what's going to count against us. But we'll know for sure in a couple of years

If we are on WTO tariffs for cars, cars made anywhere else in the world is where we can buy from, the transportation may add cost but we already import half a Billion quids worth of motors from India, Ford aims to make India it's global hub for manufacture, Nissan, BMW and others are already producing there and they make right hand drive for the domestic market there.
The dilemma for the manufacturers is where to build which models, if they can make cars in Spain and sell across the EU for about the same as building in India, paying an import tariff, and shipping, they will continue to build in Spain. But if one of the larger export markets for that car built in Spain now needs a tariff paying, they may switch all production to India, or at least all the left hand drive versions, which will at minimum reduce Spains exports, at worst lose 2,000 jobs, exports down and imports up.
Cars are going to be wanted to be tariff free by any country that makes a model sold in Britain. This does not mean it will happen, but it does make it more likely.

 

[Buzzer]

The BBC should employee Mark Carney as a reporter. He is another negative person. Always predicting doom and gloom. If his forecasts were correct, I would say fair enough. But most things he predicts turns out to be wrong.

This is the most worrying aspect regardless of whether you voted Remain or Leave. We now know that the predictions by both the Treasury and the BoE for the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote weren't just wrong but spectacularly wrong. These are the people that we pay a lot of money to, to predict how the UK economy will fare. The Treasury are the ones who provide the Chancellor with the information necessary to set his budget. The Bank of England have the power to set interest rates as part of long-term strategic planning and it appears that they can't even get close to guessing what will happen with a given scenario just 2 or 3 months down the line.

I really think Carney should perhaps step away from the limelight for a bit. I'm guessing that his intervention pre-Brexit vote was probably made under pressure from Number 11 but it was unwise and sets a dangerous precedent for the BoE governor making political interventions in the future.

 

[Biscuit Barrel]

This is the most worrying aspect regardless of whether you voted Remain or Leave. We now know that the predictions by both the Treasury and the BoE for the UK economy in the immediate aftermath of a Brexit vote weren't just wrong but spectacularly wrong. These are the people that we pay a lot of money to, to predict how the UK economy will fare. The Treasury are the ones who provide the Chancellor with the information necessary to set his budget. The Bank of England have the power to set interest rates as part of long-term strategic planning and it appears that they can't even get close to guessing what will happen with a given scenario just 2 or 3 months down the line.

I really think Carney should perhaps step away from the limelight for a bit. I'm guessing that his intervention pre-Brexit vote was probably made under pressure from Number 11 but it was unwise and sets a dangerous precedent for the BoE governor making political interventions in the future.

Well said.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

If his [Mark Carney] forecasts were correct, I would say fair enough. But most things he predicts turns out to be wrong.

Maybe if he hadn't lowered interest rates and printed money we would have seen a different financial landscape? Seems to me he's done a very good job with keeping the economy just about growing.

 

[drew]

The BBC are so negative it is unbelievable. You can here some of these presenters seething today when they have to mention that Nissan wants to build the new model at Sunderland. They just interviewed someone from Sunderland on Radio 5, and instead of the presenter saying this is great news, all he was interested in what sort of deal they where getting, waiting for anything negative to come out, so he and Bremoaner listeners can get their daily fix of doom and gloom.

Don't you think any reporter looking at this would be asking what sort of deal/assurances were given to get Nissan to make this decision. It's irrelevant which channel their on. Even Brexiteers should ask the question. How would you feel if it came out they were going to compensate Nissan for any tariffs, or maybe they told them we will remain part of the single market and whatever that entails.

 

[portslade seagull]

Don't you think any reporter looking at this would be asking what sort of deal/assurances were given to get Nissan to make this decision. It's irrelevant which channel their on. Even Brexiteers should ask the question. How would you feel if it came out they were going to compensate Nissan for any tariffs, or maybe they told them we will remain part of the single market and whatever that entails.

You mean like what the EU pays out

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Not all leavers are racist, but I bet you nearly all racists voted leave.

did they walk to the polling station with an" i am a racist" badge on
regards
DR

 

[Buzzer]

Maybe if he hadn't lowered interest rates and printed money we would have seen a different financial landscape? Seems to me he's done a very good job with keeping the economy just about growing.

If it was as simple as lowering interest rates and printing money to keep the UK economy growing following a LEAVE vote then why did they predict a very dramatic 1% drop? Surely if your scenario were true the BoE would have been predicting a rise.

 

[melias shoes]

And more good news. Nissan confirms that their new SUV will be made in Sunderland.

[tweet]791574444112277504[/tweet]

Great news. What's not to like.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Great news. What's not to like.

i'm sure the weak defeatist's on here will find something
regards
DR

 

[portslade seagull]

Great news. What's not to like.

How dare they report positive news. Most on this thread only thrive on negative tones and reports. I suppose that means Sky are now on their respective ignore lists

 

[ManOfSussex]

Great news. What's not to like.

Apart from the Government potentially subsiding the automotive industry in this country with taxpayers money going forward, nothing I guess.