East Preston Gull
New member
This, unfortunately we have all been pawns in a game.The game is afoot and people like you and me don't count - we never did.
Ask yourself why the referendum on AV was legally binding and the referendum on the EU wasn't. The answer is because the former didn't have a snowman's chance in hell of succeeding whereas the EU one could have gone either way, and indeed nearly did.
What the Tory Party now has to ask itself is:
- are Labour capable of putting up decent opposition in a general election (at present the answer has to be that Labour couldn't run a bath let alone the country)
- how many of those 17 million people are already UKIP voters and how many would stay with UKIP if Article 50 was never invoked (and in first past the post system would it matter)
- how many, of the 17 million, on the other hand, could be convinced that they had made a terrible mistake by some clever campaigning and row backs on promises ("did I say that money would go to the NHS? Oh, deary me no, that's just not possible").
And perhaps crucially (if you read the jack of kent link)
- can notice be given under the UK constitution (which exists in disparate places) if the exercise of the Article is not approved by the devolved Scottish and Northern Irish parliaments. To which you may add the calculation that more Scottish Nationalist support may actually be a good thing for the Conservatives as Labour loses even more ground north of the border.
Right now it's a great big game of chess and, while you've been made to think you have a say, you don't. Not much of one anyway. FWIW I think we probably will exercise article 50 eventually but that the deal that we sign up to will effectively see us joining the EEA. So free trade and free movement remain, without our having any say in their rules. It allows the new Tory leader to say we left the EU, is most likely to stabilise trade and the markets and it would put Farage in a difficult and emasculated position.
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