[Politics] Brexit

[Bold Seagull]

Anyone with half a brain would look at the main reasons why immigration has increased over the past year ...

Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University's politically independent Migration Observatory research unit, said: "All the forecasts suggested that migration would fall as a result of the post-Brexit immigration scheme, which greatly restricted the options for EU citizens to move to the UK - and indeed, EU net migration remains negative.
"But non-EU migration has risen, primarily not because of the policies designed to replace EU free movement.
"The humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students have played the largest role in boosting immigration levels.
"These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
"We cannot assume they represent a 'new normal', and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers."

.... if anything this is a positive news story as it shows we have been welcoming large numbers of people fleeing war zones and the Uk remains a very attractive destination for international students.

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

The half a brain part being if you voted Brexit thinking this would transform control of our borders. We already had control. The fact is we need immigration. Take the humanitarian routes out of it, and all that has happened is we've opened up to more non-EU migration to replace what we've lost in those from the EU. This was always going to happen. In or out of the EU immigration hasn't been something we have failed to control, it is something our economy has needed. Elephant in the room. Always was. Tories can talk about 100k targets - but that is utter bullshit, and they have no intention of meeting those targets, it is just cake for their voters and Daily Mail readers.

 

[nicko31]

Benefits of Brexit?

I've said it on here, numerous times, that I'd rather be in the EU than out - but, as the owner of a Company that sells 100% overseas, the collapse of the £ against the USD and € post June 2016 saw our sales significantly increase - in effect our prices to our Customers fell.

More paperwork and hassle selling to the EU - absolutely (especially in the last year) but sales still strong with the € at approx. 1.2.

I glad we have a positive "in spite of story"

The reality overall is we're are less trade intensive country now, exports with our biggest trading partner are down 15%. Johnson's TCA was shite, we're all now paying the price. It needs a lot of work....

 

[rogersix]

The problem is, of course, that there is more than one way to count inflation. This calculation, as you can see on pages 32-34 of the report, is based on assumptions and logarithms and other complexities, and concludes that prices in September 2021 are 6% higher, relative to previous years' food inflation rates, because of Brexit.

But when you look at actual food inflation, the official food CPI produced by simply looking at how much food costs compared with the previous year, you find that food inflation pre-Brexit was 2.5% in 2017, 2.2% in 2018, and 2.0% in 2019. Then it was 1% in 2020 and 1.3% in 2021, so it's awfully hard to see how 6% of that 2.3% rise was caused by Brexit.

I'm sure it's a clever report, but it's too clever by half. You don't need logarithms to measure how much money you're spending!

RPI:Percentage change over 12 months - Food and catering - Office for National Statistics

www.ons.gov.uk

could you just whizz through all of the brexit benefits again, please, ta

probably a bit quicker!

 

[rogersix]

Why do Brexit arguments always come down to "I am clever and you are stupid so I will call you rude names"?

I can't produce evidence of the quality that Watfordzero produced in his initial 6 links (I haven't read the extra ones added later), but those six mostly consisted a one man;s prediction that GDP in 2030 would be 2% less than it would have been without Brexit, and that inflation in 2022 might reach 4.4%. I can't prove him wrong about the former.

Tangible benefits of leaving the EU? We aren't in the EU. If we hadn't had three PMs to run the process who were incompetent or dishonest or both to a great degree, we might see tangible benefits as well as intangible. But incompetent politicians aren't purely the result of Brexit.

you're gonna need a bigger shovel!

the last sentence is utter class!

 

[rogersix]

I think you've pretty much summed up the reason certain politicians are so unpopular, especially round here. Whether you are tongue in cheek or not, there is a type of person who believes that they genuinely have a more valuable opinion than the lower orders because they went to the right university, they hold the right opinions, they think they are better people.

There are a lot of them on this board. If you ever thought this place was liberal, then unthink it. It's supremely intolerant of contrary opinions.

it's because it's so obvious that so many people are in agreement

 

[rogersix]

Exactly. If you only tolerate opinions you agree with, then you are 100% intolerant.

Your anger and attitude says a lot about you but nothing about me.

you're not tolerating our opinion

 

[rogersix]

Anyone with half a brain would look at the main reasons why immigration has increased over the past year ...

Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University's politically independent Migration Observatory research unit, said: "All the forecasts suggested that migration would fall as a result of the post-Brexit immigration scheme, which greatly restricted the options for EU citizens to move to the UK - and indeed, EU net migration remains negative.
"But non-EU migration has risen, primarily not because of the policies designed to replace EU free movement.
"The humanitarian routes for Ukraine and Hong Kong and a rebound in international students have played the largest role in boosting immigration levels.
"These unusually high levels of net migration result from a unique set of circumstances following the war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.
"We cannot assume they represent a 'new normal', and it would be rash to take major policy decisions based only on these numbers."

.... if anything this is a positive news story as it shows we have been welcoming large numbers of people fleeing war zones and the Uk remains a very attractive destination for international students.

UK net migration hits all-time record at 504,000

The rise is driven by non-EU students and people fleeing conflict and persecution in Hong Kong and Ukraine.

www.bbc.co.uk

we need positive migration to mitigate the demographic time bomb

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I'm angry at Brexit.

I'm merely irritated at you and your tedious propensity to nit-pick while ignoring the elephant in the room - that Brexit has been absolutely shit.

It's your board, and yes, I agree it has its share of "I'm glad I'm not prejudiced like Northerners are" people. But not a majority.

Nothing to do with being Northern or southern. I’m married to a Northerner who thinks the same as me. Brexit has messed up the country even more than it was messed up before.
We may be southerners but we are still working class so cut out the silly reverse snobbery.

 

[dsr-burnley]

you're not tolerating our opinion

You may have missed the point about what tolerance is. Tolerance does not mean agreeing with your opinion, it means accepting your right to have it, and not calling you rude names if I disagree with you.

 

[dsr-burnley]

could you just whizz through all of the brexit benefits again, please, ta

probably a bit quicker!

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

 

[rogersix]

You may have missed the point about what tolerance is. Tolerance does not mean agreeing with your opinion, it means accepting your right to have it, and not calling you rude names if I disagree with you.

manners would dictate that you reason your point and address others' issues

if you follow this logic, you will eventually arrive at the truth!

 

[The Clamp]

Anyone come up with any advantages of Brexit yet?

 

[rogersix]

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

are you saying rejoin the eu and raise the minimum wage?

 

[rogersix]

Anyone come up with any advantages of Brexit yet?

bungle got the bullet

 

[Thunder Bolt]

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

Brighton is not a high wage area. The problem with Brighton is that it is only 50 miles from London where wages are good. So, when London got too expensive we were invaded by DFLs. Down From London.
Local youngsters can’t afford to live here.
I returned south in 2004 and couldn’t afford to buy a property within 12 miles of Brighton, even though my house in Yorkshire was fully paid off.

You really don’t know much about us, do you?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Brighton was full of language schools. I knew a few people that taught English. We had coaches full of French and German youngsters every summer arriving at Newhaven, for a week or two to learn. Local people earned a bob or two hosting these youngsters. Local businesses benefited from them buying clothes and souvenirs.
Every single one has closed.

 

[The Clamp]

One benefit is clearly that we have the right to control who comes into the country. The obvious downside is that we haven't yet found politicians who can do that. I suspect the entrenched incompetence of the Home Office hasn't helped.

I know that in high wage areas like Brighton, you rather like the idea of shedloads of low paid foreigners coming in and driving down wages as low as possible, because it makes your stuff cheaper. In low wage areas like Burnley, the attraction of the low wages being driven down even lower is harder to appreciate.

Actually, we now have less of a right to control who comes and who stays in the UK. The ending of the Dublin Agreement saw to that.

"we haven't yet found politicians who can do that". That's because it cannot be done. Brexit removed the facility to do so. No politician can make something that doesn't exist, work.

We had the facility to allow "desirable" people into the UK with free movement and we had the facility to control "undesirables" with the Dublin Agreement. We threw both of those out with Brexit.

I don't know the reason people like you aren't aware of these things. Are you thick? Ignorant? Haven't had the time to research the matter? Didn't think it through? I don't know but it's not great, is it? That you voted for something without knowing it's ramifications.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Brighton is not a high wage area. The problem with Brighton is that it is only 50 miles from London where wages are good. So, when London got too expensive we were invaded by DFLs. Down From London.
Local youngsters can’t afford to live here.
I returned south in 2004 and couldn’t afford to buy a property within 12 miles of Brighton, even though my house in Yorkshire was fully paid off.

You really don’t know much about us, do you?

If you're not a high wage area, how do you justify those season ticket prices?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If you're not a high wage area, how do you justify those season ticket prices?

You have been looking into buying one, have you?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Brighton was full of language schools. I knew a few people that taught English. We had coaches full of French and German youngsters every summer arriving at Newhaven, for a week or two to learn. Local people earned a bob or two hosting these youngsters. Local businesses benefited from them buying clothes and souvenirs.
Every single one has closed.

And how did half of B&H lose their virginity?

No wonder B&H is now full of wankers.