[Politics] Brexit

[Gwylan]

Sadly, longtime Brexiter Yalland gets it right in his thread about the mutation of Brexit.

https://twitter.com/AdrianYalland/status/1181711773415755777?s=19


Everyone can benefit from reading his thread. Renainers to catch a glimpse of the Brexit positives, Leavers to see how Brexit has now been corrupted into the ugly mess it never should have been.

That's a good thread - but then, he's saying what I've been saying for a couple of years. What surprises me is how few of us there: everyone seems a hardcore remainer or a hardcore Brexiteer. You'd think there'd be more of us who voted to leave and are horrified at the situation we're now in, something a long, long way from what I envisaged. But we seem to be very few in number, I can't work out why so many people seem to be looking forward to economic chaos and the dismantling of key democratic principles.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Working hard towards a deal my arse, they have done sod all and clearly want a no deal.
As you say he is totally taking the piss and making it up as he goes along.
But I still don't get the no extension but it's against the law bit.
Johnson just has one card up his sleeve, keep banging on about no deal hoping the EU will come round, but they clearly will not.
Johnson is so far out of his depth that Cummings is pulling the strings.
Johnson is a joke, a clown, totally clueless and hopeless.
But the thickos still wait on his every word as he leads us all down the road to a catastrophe.
You really couldn't make it up.

At least four Tory ministers now on a resignation watch list. The Merkel call leak was made before Cabinet met and wasn't even mentioned in the meeting.

Most Tory MPs really really don't want no-deal but have been going along with the Boris Master Plan due to party loyalty.

If he and Cummings (well Cummings) can't get a deal expect major resignations across the party.

The irony of the whole Brexit campaign of Take Back Control (which we never lost) is the country is now being run by an unelected bureaucrat.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.

I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.

The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel

I think the reason you haven't seen the same in the UK is because our governments haven't allowed it to be known. There is a link (I can't find it just as this moment) called MyEU or similar, where you can put your postcode in, and see the many projects the EU money has paid for. The press has never bothered publicising them.
In contrast, the floods in 2015, which caused so much damage, especially in Somerset, could have been helped by EU money but Cameron turned it down, because it would affect the result of the referendum the following year. He wanted it kept quiet.

 

[Motogull]

Can someone help me out here please.

BJ and his cronies still keep banging on about "we will leave on Oct 31st no matter what" and still threatening a no-deal Brexit, but I was under the impression that had been completely kiboshed by Benns Law.

So, is the threat of a no-deal Brexit still a real threat, or is it simply more pathetic filibustering from an ever increasingly panicking Boris?

'Banging on = bullshit and propaganda.

Benn's Law mandates the delivery of a letter making a request, not what the response to that must be because it cannot bind the recipient.

The document/letter read to the Scottish court amounted to an undertaking to comply, but equally significantly, not to frustrate so Alexander Boris de Piffle bungle**** Johnson cannot theoretically sabotage the process. Would you put that past him though? No, me neither. I can see him barely containing his chuckles the morning after while giving a 'I told you so, so what, it is now done' speech.

 

[beorhthelm]

comments from Merkel are unfortunate if true, essentially saying we can leave as long as Northern Ireland stays behind. it will give weight to remainers that said the backstop was always a trap to keep us in. Johnson hasnt help either with the "DUP veto" giving EU good reason to reject what he offered, when it was otherwise close.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

https://youtu.be/TuCmdtcWKog

I wish you lot would stop ****ing moaning about Brexit

Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Bob'n'weave]

It’s a net contribution of around 7-8 billion. Sounds a lot, doesn’t it? The loss of this £8b will however not be noticed and will be absorbed by the EU 27, as it’s fairly insignificant in relation to the £4.3 trillion worth of goods that these countries export. They’re not going to miss us as much as ardent leavers like you would like to think.

Really?

In 2018, UK exports to the EU were £289 billion (46% of all UK exports). UK imports from the EU were £345 billion (54% of all UK imports). The share of UK exports accounted for by the EU has generally fallen over time from 55% in 2006 to 43% in 2016, though this increased slightly to 44% in 2017 and 46% in 2018.24 Jul 2019
Statistics on UK-EU trade - Commons Library briefing - UK ...
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk › Summary › CBP-7851

 

[WATFORD zero]

1) The UK's temporary tariff regime means that 88% of total imports to the UK, by value, will be eligible for tariff free access.

2) British businesses will not pay tariffs on imports into the UK, for the majority of goods, if we leave without an agreement.

3) An exceptional review process will come into force on exit day, to make changes to the temporary tariff regime, if necessary.

4) The temporary tariff regime is in force for 12 months, whilst a full consultation on a permanent approach to tariffs is undertaken from January.

The temporary tariff regime is far reaching and needs to be studied. Some products will fall quite a lot in price, others will rise. No one can state categorically that we are ****ed until you are able to analyse all the changes and they won't be clearer until post Brexit, let alone the changes to UK taxation legislation, which will take a time to be established.

1) The tariff free 88% of total imports to the UK by value will be tariff free to the Whole world under WTO Most favoured nation rules undercutting all British businesses in those markets

2) Of course British businesses will not pay tariffs on imports to the UK. They will, however pay export tariffs on all goods that are currently tariff free to the EU and will also lose all EU trade agreements for exports to the rest of the world

3) & 4) Given the above any temporary changes etc are completely meaningless

 

[nicko31]

Irish border reality is unsurprisingly coming home to roost......

The English nationalist press chose to ignore it back in June 2016, but there we were warned

All from June 2016

Home Secretary Theresa May has said it is "inconceivable" that there will not be any changes on border arrangements with the Republic of Ireland, if the UK pulls out of the European Union.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-politics-36587809

Infacts - Irish border won’t be unchanged by Brexit

https://infacts.org/mythbusts/irish-border-arrangements-wont-unchanged-brexit/

Tony Blair and John Major warn Brexit would threaten union

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-major-warn-brexit-would-threaten-union-video

Taoiseach says a UK vote to leave EU would play into old narrative of division, isolation and difference

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nda-kenny-border-warning-brexit-eu-referendum

The EU debate must not ignore Northern Ireland

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/04/eu-debate-must-not-ignore-northern-ireland

But from the owners of Ritz....

Brexit won't hurt Northern Ireland at all – instead, it will brighten its future

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...thern-ireland-at-all--instead-it-will-bright/

And of the Express.... Calls for Army to man Irish border to plug new migrant backdoor to Britain

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/6...fore-Brexit-time-bomb-warn-UKIP-David-McNarry

And finally Paul Dacre at the Daily Mail, just completely swept it under the carpet...

 

[WATFORD zero]

I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.

I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.

The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel

I can understand your frustration at the seemingly never ending process, but leaving with a 'deal' will optimistically take us at least another 5 years of Brexit being top of the News and Parliament agenda and effecting the economy, while the biggest trade deal in Britain's history is negotiated. (Look how long the easy bit of trying to negotiate a withdrawal agreement has taken so far).

A 'No deal', even by JRM's admittance could keep Brexit at the top of the agenda for the next 50 years.

Make no mistake, no type of Brexit is going to 'put the patient out of it's misery'.

There is only one way to bring this to a conclusion.

 

[Mental Lental]

Johnson hasnt help either with the "DUP veto" giving EU good reason to reject what he offered, when it was otherwise close.

Ah you mean his suggestion that we leave the GFA in the hands of the ONLY major political group in Ireland to originally oppose the GFA.

Yeah good one BJ totally viable that one. Evil EU not having it though for some reason. Can't think why.

 

[WATFORD zero]

comments from Merkel are unfortunate if true, essentially saying we can leave as long as Northern Ireland stays behind. it will give weight to remainers that said the backstop was always a trap to keep us in. Johnson hasnt help either with the "DUP veto" giving EU good reason to reject what he offered, when it was otherwise close.

But where is your source that Merkel said this ? The only source I'm aware of is the downing street one (clue - initials DC) that 'leaked' this information.

This is the same man who put the sign on the side of the bus in order to convince naive people to vote leave and also claimed there was a 'good deal' to convince people who weren't naive enough to fall for the bus slogan.

I wonder what he might be up to here

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

That's a good thread - but then, he's saying what I've been saying for a couple of years. What surprises me is how few of us there: everyone seems a hardcore remainer or a hardcore Brexiteer. You'd think there'd be more of us who voted to leave and are horrified at the situation we're now in, something a long, long way from what I envisaged. But we seem to be very few in number, I can't work out why so many people seem to be looking forward to economic chaos and the dismantling of key democratic principles.

It's because they are bombarded by Steve Bannon ideological truthbending via facebook and other websites or newspapers.

 

[Lever]

I don’t need to argue the point with you, if you choose to believe I am an outright liar, your prerogative.

I spend time in France and Spain and have seen the difference that EU money has made, I haven’t seen the same in the UK. I have no idea why commenting on this makes you keep doubting my being a remainer. I have not heard a single current politician who has made me think “yep this is the man or woman who can sort out this cluster****”. Hence I think we should put the patient out of it’s misery rather than have this dominate politics for the foreseeable future. Get out, have an election and let’s see where we go.

The above may be naive in the extreme, stupid even but it’s how I feel

No one has accused you of being an outright liar; there is just a discrepancy between your assertion that you believe the UK has given more than the EU for a long time and your other assertion that you are an 'ardent' ('passionate','enthusiastic') Remain voter. I pointed out that the two are hardly compatible and perhaps you might have thought it through more rigorously..... no offence intended.

The rest of your comment seems completely wrong. If you think that 'the patient will be put out of its misery' by just leaving without any deal, then again I think you might reflect a bit more deeply that this would be the start, not the end of 'the misery' where we seek a deal from a position of much greater weakness.

Feeling are not what is needed.... but more thought!

 

[ManOfSussex]

At least four Tory ministers now on a resignation watch list. The Merkel call leak was made before Cabinet met and wasn't even mentioned in the meeting.

Most Tory MPs really really don't want no-deal but have been going along with the Boris Master Plan due to party loyalty.

If he and Cummings (well Cummings) can't get a deal expect major resignations across the party.

A group of five ministers — Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox — are on a “resignation watch list”.

It came after a “fractious” cabinet meeting in which ministers warned Mr Johnson about the “grave” risk of the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland and raised concerns about Dominic Cummings, his most senior adviser.

One cabinet minister told The Times: “Cabinet will set the strategy, not unelected officials. If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a cabinet of sock puppets and nodding dogs.”

Another cabinet minister said that a “very large number” of Tory MPs would quit if Mr Johnson put a no-deal Brexit at the core of his general election strategy. They said they would find it “very hard” to stay in a government that committed itself to a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...-quit-if-it-comes-to-no-deal-brexit-z5g358v5r

 

[A1X]

That's a good thread - but then, he's saying what I've been saying for a couple of years. What surprises me is how few of us there: everyone seems a hardcore remainer or a hardcore Brexiteer. You'd think there'd be more of us who voted to leave and are horrified at the situation we're now in, something a long, long way from what I envisaged. But we seem to be very few in number, I can't work out why so many people seem to be looking forward to economic chaos and the dismantling of key democratic principles.

It's the footballisation of politics, which manifests itself in all manner of places. The Corbynite revolution is a classic example, "you're either with us or as bad as the Tories" is basically spouted at any number of soft Labour types (myself included). Nobody is allowed to be in the middle ground any more, you're either "hero" or "traitor", and there can be No Compromise.

 

[A1X]

A group of five ministers — Nicky Morgan, Julian Smith, Robert Buckland, Matt Hancock and Geoffrey Cox — are on a “resignation watch list”.

It came after a “fractious” cabinet meeting in which ministers warned Mr Johnson about the “grave” risk of the return of direct rule in Northern Ireland and raised concerns about Dominic Cummings, his most senior adviser.

One cabinet minister told The Times: “Cabinet will set the strategy, not unelected officials. If this is an attempt to do that then it will fail. We are not a cabinet of sock puppets and nodding dogs.”

Another cabinet minister said that a “very large number” of Tory MPs would quit if Mr Johnson put a no-deal Brexit at the core of his general election strategy. They said they would find it “very hard” to stay in a government that committed itself to a no-deal Brexit.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...-quit-if-it-comes-to-no-deal-brexit-z5g358v5r

Let's remember these are the people who've seen the impact statements, read the warnings from all and sundry and seen the evidence. If they're prepared to stick their necks out and avoid being seen to be part of this shitshow, what does that tell us about what No Deal looks like, exactly?

 

[Simster]

Here are the odds of certain outcomes according to Betfair:

UK to leave before 1st Nov: 4.7 (just over 7/2)
No deal Brexit in 2019: 5.1 (just over 4/1)
Article 50 to be revoked: 3.5 (5/2)

Brexit Date:
Before Jan 20: 3.35 (just over 9/4)
Jan-Jun: 2.62 (13/8)



Why oh why couldn't we just leave but stay in a EFTA-like arrangement, in line with the vote and probably public opinion? If anyone gave a tuppenny f*ck about national unity, that is what they would ALL be advocating.

 

[beorhthelm]

But where is your source that Merkel said this ? The only source I'm aware of is the downing street one (clue - initials DC) that 'leaked' this information.

This is the same man who put the sign on the side of the bus in order to convince naive people to vote leave and also claimed there was a 'good deal' to convince people who weren't naive enough to fall for the bus slogan.

I wonder what he might be up to here

source is suspect, and open to it being untrue, but no hint of denial from Merkel or other sources.

it is undeniable that if it weren't for NI the process would have gone a lot smoother.

 

[portslade seagull]

I understand the logic but it doesn't totally follow. This is a tory made mess and Cameron should have introduced a threshold of say 60% for any change; now we should consider it.
He didn't - and 52% to 48% is not a sufficient mandate for either side of the argument. To carry on with such monumental changes without sufficient support is unacceptable.

Why do you keep changing the rules to suit your logic. 52% won it. Even if it was 60 to 40 you would still be spouting it should have been set at 75% by Cameron to carry the vote. It seems remainers are returning to pre 2016 scare stories which lost a lot of votes in the 1st place. Put voters backs up and they will react.
Remain would have won comfortably in 2016 without all the crap they pumped out