[Politics] Brexit

[nicko31]

[/B]
I wish it could be done... but this will affect the rest of our lives so we are unlikely to let it go.

Many leavers think leaving the EU with no deal will be the end of it on 31/10/19. I'm not sure this will even be the end of the beginning of Brexit.

Just shows the ignorance and the level of grooming that has taken place by the right wing print media, especially on many older members...

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Its a waiting game but its not necessarily all negative.

What a ringing endorsement of the whole sorry affair that is.

Not exactly sunlit uplands, is it?

 

[WATFORD zero]

There is no question that we will go through a 2-3 year period of difficulty, most people accept that. Lets wait and see what develops beyond that, once internal taxation changes are made, business re-investment is underway and some prices are different at retail level. Its a waiting game but its not necessarily all negative.

Your mate JRM said 50 years

Out of interest, on a more serious note, how do you think our negotiations with the rest of the world (including the EU) are going to go, given that the current plan is to give the whole world tariff free access to all British markets through Ireland under WTO Most Favoured Nation rules.

What more do you think we could offer beyond that, to get them to the table to start negotiations

 

[nicko31]

There is no question that we will go through a 2-3 year period of difficulty, most people accept that. Lets wait and see what develops beyond that, once internal taxation changes are made, business re-investment is underway and some prices are different at retail level. Its a waiting game but its not necessarily all negative.

FFS, what happened to easiest trade deal in history, cake and eat it, the Germans will come begging....

OK lets pretend unicorns do appear in 2-3 years. Any positives in the near term to make up for the 500m / week loss to the economy since 2016?

 

[Lever]

There is no question that we will go through a 2-3 year period of difficulty, most people accept that. Lets wait and see what develops beyond that, once internal taxation changes are made, business re-investment is underway and some prices are different at retail level. Its a waiting game but its not necessarily all negative.

It is pure speculation that it will be that short; no one knows. But even if it is that short it will still destroy the livelihoods and lives of many people (some of whom are personal friends of mine). I hope the outlook is not so negative for you though...... (written without rancour)

 

[WATFORD zero]

FFS, what happened to easiest trade deal in history, cake and eat it, the Germans will come begging....

OK lets pretend unicorns do appear in 2-3 years. Any positives in the near term to make up for the 500m / week loss to the economy since 2016?

750 unicorns, one for each trade arrangement that we are giving up the day we leave ? That's about one every working day for the next 3 years. I assume that even though we haven't seen anything mentioned about it, we have recruited hundreds more trained and experienced trade negotiators over the last 3 years as part of our 'no deal' preparations. Maybe we headhunted them from the EU, as they have the largest pool of experienced trade negotiators of any trading bloc

 

[nicko31]

750 unicorns, one for each trade arrangement that we are giving up the day we leave ? That's about one every working day for the next 3 years. I assume that even though we haven't seen anything mentioned about it, we have recruited hundreds more trained and experienced trade negotiators over the last 3 years as part of our 'no deal' preparations, as the EU used to handle the vast majority of that for us

What happened all 50 or so trade deals that the EU has with 3rd countries, like US & Canada? I assume they are all rolled over now, I guess if not all done by 31/10 should be completed by mid-November?

 

[Gwylan]

Your mate JRM said 50 years

Out of interest, on a more serious note, how do you think our negotiations with the rest of the world (including the EU) are going to go, given that the current plan is to give the whole world tariff free access to all British markets through Ireland under WTO Most Favoured Nation rules.

We don't know if that's true. The current plan is to give tariff-free access to agriculture/food products but not to everything. The government hasn't yet indicated what other sectors will be tariff-free and what tariffs will be for ones that aren't - which is bit concerning as we're only five weeks away from trading under WTO rules (in theory, anyway).

 

[WATFORD zero]

What happened all 50 or so trade deals that the EU has with 3rd countries, like US & Canada? I assume they are all rolled over now, I guess if not all done by 31/10 should be completed by mid-November?

Well i'm sure those major economic powers won't have thought of taking this opportunity to re-negotiate their deals with Britain getting a far better deal. No Siree

Particularly as pointed out above, the current plan is to give them all free access to all UK markets through Ireland. If it was written as a work of fiction, people would claim it was too far fetched.

 

[Gwylan]

What happened all 50 or so trade deals that the EU has with 3rd countries, like US & Canada? I assume they are all rolled over now, I guess if not all done by 31/10 should be completed by mid-November?

The EU doesn't have a FTA with the USA - that's being negotiated still (although talks have stalled), it does have one with Canada that the Canadian government has already said will not be rolled over for the UK. We'd have to start from scratch

 

[WATFORD zero]

We don't know if that's true. The current plan is to give tariff-free access to agriculture/food products but not to everything. The government hasn't yet indicated what other sectors will be tariff-free and what tariffs will be for ones that aren't - which is bit concerning as we're only five weeks away from trading under WTO rules (in theory, anyway).

I'm not talking about the 87% of imports the Government has already announced as tariff free (which will of course, be tariff free to the whole world, not just the EU).

If we don't have customs posts or methods of controlling the border in NI, we are, by default, giving completely free access to Ireland (and therefor the EU) to all goods, services and people. Under WTO Most favoured Nation, if we give this to the EU, then we have to give this to the whole world.

It is an interesting position from which to start our 50 years (©JRM) of Brexit trade negotiations

 

[daveinplzen]

No deal estimates of job losses in a no deal situation is half a million.. Cant imagine what areas they will be in, but at a guess, I would say the vociferous leaving areas.
Half a million jobs gone
Potentially the breakup of the Union
Potential return of the paramilitaries in the North of Ireland.
Having to start trade deals from scratch, and given our negotiating skills in just leaving the EU, Im not expecting my unicorn for some time. So im telling family to convert stable into an office.
Prime minister of Luxembourg of all places having a laugh at us.
Its awe inspiring really.

Maybe the up coming war between the USA and Iran, that no doubt we will be dragged into, will be a money spinner.

 

[nicko31]

The EU doesn't have a FTA with the USA - that's being negotiated still (although talks have stalled), it does have one with Canada that the Canadian government has already said will not be rolled over for the UK. We'd have to start from scratch

How can that be?

We hold all the cards don't we?

 

[A1X]

So it seems Boris Johnson doesn't understand how the EU works even now

[TWEET]1174243849646092290[/TWEET]

 

[Pogue Mahone]

No deal estimates of job losses in a no deal situation is half a million.. Cant imagine what areas they will be in, but at a guess, I would say the vociferous leaving areas.
Half a million jobs gone
Potentially the breakup of the Union
Potential return of the paramilitaries in the North of Ireland.
Having to start trade deals from scratch, and given our negotiating skills in just leaving the EU, Im not expecting my unicorn for some time. So im telling family to convert stable into an office.
Prime minister of Luxembourg of all places having a laugh at us.
Its awe inspiring really.

Maybe the up coming war between the USA and Iran, that no doubt we will be dragged into, will be a money spinner.

Meanwile, Remain Yellowhammer: Worst Case Scenario

Food supplies will continue as before
Medicine supplies will continue as before
Ability to work, live and retire in the EU will continue
UK citizens will still be able to access free medical care in the EU
Free roaming charges in the EU to continue
Lack of queues at ports and airports to continue
No significant price rises in food or electricity
No increase in businesses going bust and job losses
Peace in Northern Ireland to continue as before
Security co-operation with the EU to continue as before
No increase in smuggling or black market crime
No need to stockpile body bags
Investment to return to businesses
Growth to return to the economy
UK can get on with fixing NHS, housing, social care, child poverty etc.

I think we can all agree that this is a terrifying prospect.

 

[WATFORD zero]

So it seems Boris Johnson doesn't understand how the EU works even now

[TWEET]1174243849646092290[/TWEET]

As has become blindingly obvious, he never did



Although, having read some of the suggestions for a 'good deal' from two of our more lucid leave friends on here, who I won't mention as they don't like me keep highlighting them (Give Ireland back to the Irish, Allow Britain to leave the backstop unilaterally) he's not alone

 

[schmunk]

Meanwile, Remain Yellowhammer: Worst Case Scenario

Food supplies will continue as before
Medicine supplies will continue as before
Ability to work, live and retire in the EU will continue
UK citizens will still be able to access free medical care in the EU
Free roaming charges in the EU to continue
Lack of queues at ports and airports to continue
No significant price rises in food or electricity
No increase in businesses going bust and job losses
Peace in Northern Ireland to continue as before
Security co-operation with the EU to continue as before
No increase in smuggling or black market crime
No need to stockpile body bags
Investment to return to businesses
Growth to return to the economy
UK can get on with fixing NHS, housing, social care, child poverty etc.

I think we can all agree that this is a terrifying prospect.

Does this Worst Case Scenario mean that I won't get my lollipop?


Edit to add: 25 years old this week!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3r7Oo0Fs-8

 

[Gwylan]

How can that be?

We hold all the cards don't we?

Yeah, but one's Mr Bun the Baker and another is the Joker

 

[pb21]

So it seems Boris Johnson doesn't understand how the EU works even now

[TWEET]1174243849646092290[/TWEET]

Reminds me of when Raab realised that a lot of stuff comes through Dover and Brexit may have an effect on this

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Yeah, but one's Mr Bun the Baker and another is the Joker

Don't forget the Pikachu, Shadowmage, and the fireball spell cards.