[Politics] Brexit

[CHAPPERS]

Cummings is busy making friends of Tory MPs

The time has come for Mr Johnson to get a handle on this and have Mr Cummings frogmarched out of Downing Street, because if he doesn’t the damage is going to continue.

The manner, in which I know because I have had from the horse’s mouth, some of my colleagues who went to discuss courteously with Mr Johnson their situation yesterday were treated by Mr Cummings was quite appalling. That has to stop, if it doesn’t then maybe the 1922 committee can do something about it but we cannot go on like this.

 

[daveinplzen]

PM dodges opposition leaders first question shock [emoji23] oh the indignation of it all.

Not indignant at all. Just laughing at the hypocrisy.

 

[Chicken Run]

Not indignant at all. Just laughing at the hypocrisy.

Yeah right oh [emoji23][emoji23]

 

[daveinplzen]

Yeah right oh [emoji23][emoji23]

BJ showed himself up to be a coward. To then call ANYBODY a 'chicken' following that, would be funny in most peoples eyes I would imagine.

 

[rippleman]

I believe that the rebel Tory MPs are a disgrace to their constituents and rightly so have been expelled from the Tory party. I shall be emailing Sir Nicholas Soames exactly that,. after a distinguished career what a sad way to go.

I fear you may have lost the plot again.

Sir Nicholas Soames has been a Tory MP for nearly 40 years. During that period he has voted against a Tory government fewer times than you have fingers on one hand.

Boris Johnson voted against May government's Brexit deal 3 times in the space of a few weeks.

I hope that has helped put things into perspective for you.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

B.J gets a kicking for preparing for a no deal Brexit if he has to.
I am no expert but surely , if you say to the EU " we would like to leave , but only if you give us a good deal, otherwise we might stay in" ..... the other side are just going to sit tight and concede nothing - just so we will stay.
It is only by showing that we are determined to go that we might get something .
Or please tell me what I am missing.

The EU know we are prepared to leave with No Deal, no doubt about that. They'd rather not have that, but are prepared for it if no alternative to the backstop is found. The backstop came about after more than a year of negotiations between the EU and the British government, it was found to be the only solution both sides could agree on.

If BJ wants a deal he will have to come up with a sensible alternative to the backstop, but as Davis and Raab couldn't manage that in previous negotiations one wonders if it is available. The EU are very clear they won't budge even if it results in NoDeal

Really the sensible option is to delay the leaving date and give BJ a proper run at negotiations, there is no time now before 31 Oct

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Cummings is busy making friends of Tory MPs

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[WATFORD zero]

I have to say that Johnson's Leadership is going far better than I expected

Sir Roger Gale in extraordinary Dominic Cummings attack - 'unelected foul-mouthed oaf'

[video]https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1173816/Brexit-news-Sir-Roger-Gale-latest-Dominic-Cummings-Boris-Johnson-BBC-case-UK[/video]

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I fear you may have lost the plot again.

Sir Nicholas Soames has been a Tory MP for nearly 40 years. During that period he has voted against a Tory government fewer times than you have fingers on one hand.

Boris Johnson voted against May government's Brexit deal 3 times in the space of a few weeks.

I hope that has helped put things into perspective for you.

[tweet]1169261950330658817[/tweet]

 

[Mellotron]

Who knew that Johnson would turn out to be the most incompetent buffoon of a PM ever? Number 10 have already had to confirm he's not resigning yet.

This is like before Trump was elected, and everyone said "oh, he'll have to start acting more Presidential now, you'll see, he'll sort himself out."

He didn't.

This is superb.

 

[Stat Brother]

Who knew that Johnson would turn out to be the most incompetent buffoon of a PM ever? Number 10 have already had to confirm he's not resigning yet.

This is like before Trump was elected, and everyone said "oh, he'll have to start acting more Presidential now, you'll see, he'll sort himself out."

He didn't.

This is superb.

That said it is funnier when this level of ineptitude is happening somewhere else!

 

[ManOfSussex]

Probably still stung by being held responsible for all the ills of the last coalition they joined. However, you can bet your arse they would if the alternative was a Tory/BP coalition.

The carrot of a 2nd referendum with 'remain' on the ballot paper would change The Lib Dem's current tune to coalition as well.

 

[Notters]

The carrot of a 2nd referendum with 'remain' on the ballot paper would change The Lib Dem's current tune to coalition as well.

Yep. It'd also be possible to have a working relationship without a formal coalition.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Now is not a good time for Corbyn to have a General Election. Back in 2017 he had a successful GE campaign because whilst Brexit was the main issue the date of leaving the EU was still a long way in the future and people were as concerned about the other stuff like austerity, NHS, schools

Unlike 2017, any 2019 GE will be dominated by the threat of Brexit, and that doesn't play out well with Labour's wishy-washy position. I see the Lib Dems clear 'Bollocks to Brexit' message and the energy and dynamism of Swinson resonating in key parts of the country and I think she'll pick up seats in Scotland, the South-West, the South-East and London.

I can also see the Greens taking votes off Labour over the country too - these hurricanes in the Bahamas and burning Amazon will persuade many who are as yet uncommitted and many new first-time voters.

I think the Brexit Party will take Labour votes in working class areas where voters want to Leave but don't want to vote for the posh Tory boys.

The SNP's anti-Brexit message should also preserve their dominance in Scotland.

Therefore - as I see it - Corbyn is singularly ill-equipped to fight this GE. The best thing for the Labour Party would be to simply win the vote in Parliament on avoiding No Deal, then for Corbyn to do the honourable thing and resign. They could then appoint Keir Starmer or Hilary Benn. I don't think either is capable of winning Labour a majority but both would be popular choices as leader in a coalition. They could fully endorse a Second Referendum and be unencumbered by the anti-EU political baggage Corbyn carries, as well as removing the stain of Anti-Semitism in the Labour Party.

I'm starting to look at these numbers for a GE and it is interesting...

Tories/DUP had a working majority of 17 was it at the last GE? Something like that... so regardless of defections that is where they start from ...

At least 10 of their 13 seats in Scotland are seriously under threat. One has to imagine the LD's will pick up 10-12 off the Tories, in the SW (places like defector Sarah Wollaston's seat in Totnes; St Ives in the far reaches of Cornwall, Cheltenham and so on), in London and dare one say it, Lewes? There will be a lot of tactical-remain voting going on, a collapse in Labour's decent-(for them) showing in SW last time round could lead to a big wave of LD pick-ups

Labour may get some more seats in London, places like Justine Greening's seat of Putney.

In NI both the DUP and Sinn Fein had remarkably strong showings last time out, if either of them lose seats based on their approach to Brexit or other factors, that will tilt the arithmetic away from the Tories.

Then there are the real wild-cards, the defected or expelled Tories. Many are not standing again (Clarke, Burt, Soames) but others will and what happens there will be very interesting - Boles, Soubry, Allen, Gyimah, Stewart, Hammond.. there could be split-voting here

But of course must factor in the losses - 10-20 Labour seats perhaps? The recent by-election seats of Peterborough and Brecon could certainly fall to Tories... plus will labour split the vote against their own Change-UK defectors in those seats? Will Kate Hoey lose her seat to Libs?

But really, the 2017 election already re-aligned a lot of seats in accordance with their remain-leave voting, so the likes of Brighton Kemptown, Bristol NW, Stroud which flipped CON-LAB at the last election should stay that way, and Leave-places like Mansfield, Stoke S, Middlesbrough S and Walsall N already flipped from Labour to the Tories

Then there is the Brexit Party factor... if they run versus Tories will certainly split the vote. and maybe take some seats off them.. same will happen in Labour seats in North... but added factor in the North that they hate Johnson, so will they push Brexit to a secondary issue, it is less of an ideological issue amongst those voters? Not to mention that there are the same proportion of Brexit-supporting Labour voters as there are Remain-supporting Tories.

Thus one can see a clear path to victory for a Remain-coalition, although not to a Labour majority, indeed a left-wing Labour majority looks impossible for a long-time with the strength of the SNP, or until they move centrist again.

But the last election was 42% CON v 40% LAB, the latest polls Tories are something like 33% CON v 26% LAB - so this isn't easy to call.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I believe that the rebel Tory MPs are a disgrace to their constituents and rightly so have been expelled from the Tory party. I shall be emailing Sir Nicholas Soames exactly that,. after a distinguished career what a sad way to go.

Make sure you sit down at a table and write it up nicely on your laptop and not on your Omsung Phine as you wouldn't want to come across as silly to him.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Will Kate Hoey lose her seat to Libs?

She's standing down at the next election.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Yep. It'd also be possible to have a working relationship without a formal coalition.

Yes, I can foresee a coalition of Labour+SNP+Plaid, kept in office by an agreement with LibDem+Green+ChangeUK.... it would last a certain while and would serve to rein in the worst excesses of both Labour and the SNP

 

[pb21]

You would think any honourable MP's that vote to give the powers of the executive to the government's opponents and the decision of when/if we exit, to the EU, would have the decency to have already resigned the whip and throw themselves on the mercy of their constituency electorate.

If an executive is formed on the basis of obtaining x (a deal), but then deviates to pursue y (no deal), and MPs continue to pursue x, who is behaving honourably?

 

[Machiavelli]

I fear you may have lost the plot again.

Sir Nicholas Soames has been a Tory MP for nearly 40 years. During that period he has voted against a Tory government fewer times than you have fingers on one hand.

Boris Johnson voted against May government's Brexit deal 3 times in the space of a few weeks.

I hope that has helped put things into perspective for you.

Are you sure you don't mean 'half as many times as you have fingers on one hand"?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

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