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[Politics] Brexit
- Thread starter KingstonSeagull
- Start date
State visit to Washington is my guess
- Apr 5, 2014
- 25,923
My biggest concern is not leaving the European Union. I've long been resigned to it happening.
It is what happens next that worries me. I was concerned about the prospect of the breakup of the Union and endless right wing governments.
The thinly veiled coup attempt by a number of right-wing zealots should concern people on both sides of the argument.
I'm not in shock that we are leaving the European Union. But I am very concerned about recent developments in government, how opposing views only matter if they have any impact on the agenda, and how a small number of people are able to take the government's of this country off in an unpalatable direction. And this being with the inevitable support of the right wing media.
It's as if nobody has learnt from what's happened across the pond.
BadFish
Huge Member
- Oct 19, 2003
- 18,201
The most sensible post I have read on these last few pages.
theonlymikey
New member
- Apr 21, 2016
- 789
You know how tinpot we have become when Iran and Russia media starts laughing at us.
Embarrassing.
Embarrassing.
Scunner
Active member
Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.
It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.
The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:
Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.
Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.
Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.
The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.
It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.
The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:
Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.
Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.
Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.
The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: https://verfassungsblog.de/an-offer...qPfiHdxlvhZBG4507lUs9K0-Ow-cR6NcZ-czQlhTUen9s
It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.
The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:
Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.
Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.
Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.
The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: Dominic Cummings is pulling the strings and the OODA strategy of the Remain Alliance ‘RA’ being well and truly tested right now. The more enlightened of you should seek out his blogs on this over the last few years and you will gain insight into what is happening.
It’s very funny watching the RA now scramble for direction. BJ/MG/DC are outmanoeuvring them at every turn. But, they're also spiking Farage's guns, watch the BP slide in the polls even more after yesterday. The simple, and possibly sad fact is that there exists no one, not one politician or SpAd on the remain side that can even scratch the insight, knowledge and capability that DC has on political strategy.
The RA are somewhat helpless now. This is because it will slowly dawn on them that a deal is now more likely and they have been outgunned. Here’s why:
Vote of no confidence action.
A VoNC will not be successful before the party conference recess, as Conservative MPs, no matter how remainy, will want to give HMG time to negotiate with the EU especially given recent emollient rumblings from over the channel on the NI backstop. Indeed, expect the next phase on the grid to be more, not less, positivity from both the EU and HMG on the NI backstop before Parliament returns next week. Plus, up to 30 Labour MPs will abstain. JC knows this at least, which is why he doesn't want a VoNC now. If there is a confidence vote on the return of parliament on 14th October it's unlikely to happen before the EU summit that week on 16/17th. If HMG were to lose that, ND happens by default because an interim govmt will not happen as there is no flavor of it that will command a majority - this will further deter remain Tories because the reality of ND or a new WA bill approved at the EU council will be directly in front of them. A VoNC is bound to fail.
Blocking legislation
This is the bigger and more imminent threat to DC/BJ/MG’s plans. But it will struggle if, before next Tuesday, BJ makes valid noises about the possibility of a deal. Equally, if it looks like the emergency legislation looks like it has a chance of success, HMG could amend it with a VoNC clause and impose a 3 line whip, effectively bringing forward the above conundrum, because if successful ND becomes more, not less, likely.
Rationale
A new Queen's speech means that the WA can be returned to Parliament because it's a new legislative session. If it is brought back minus the NI Backstop as drafted, it will pass. I am certain this is the plan and it will work, this is why you haven't seen or heard any negative briefings from Donald Tusk post his meeting with BJ, because it's (the deal) already done. All that needed to happen was for HMG to create the space for it to happen, a Queen's speech facilitates that by re-introducing the WA bill - this has already been welcomed by the EU according to some.
The way I think that the NI backstop will be removed is ingenious, but it's already in play. Essentially it will be written into UK law that it will be illegal for goods crossing the NI/Ire border to be non-EU compliant, reciprocally the same will apply in reverse. This will preserve the legislative integrity of the SM and the UK Govmt simultaneously. The legal blog is below and is backed by EU insiders, you saw it here first: https://verfassungsblog.de/an-offer...qPfiHdxlvhZBG4507lUs9K0-Ow-cR6NcZ-czQlhTUen9s
Neville's Breakfast
Well-known member
Thank you. I hardly think the idea of triggering Article 50 was only in Theresa May’s head. In the period following the referendum there weren’t many people simply advocating ignoring the vote. The argument had moved on to hard Brexit/soft Brexit etc. It is my contention that the May Government played the long game of negotiating on the EU’s terms and agreeing not to discuss the trade deal that had been much debated during the referendum campaign. Had they made such discussion a pre condition of talks we would not be in the absurd position where we are being asked to approve an inadequate deal that keeps us in the single market for an indeterminate amount of time until a trade deal is finalized. Basically three years have been deliberately wasted just so Remainers can tell us three years have been wasted and we may as well stay in.
This has ceased to be about Remain v Leave.
This is Democracy v Dictatorship. 27% of people support proroguing.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,016
this legal solution sounds a lot like the suggestion from the former director of Border Force at the weekend. rolling the pitch?
Neville's Breakfast
Well-known member
The justification provided is the plausible defence. You and your twitter friend just disagree. None of us are liars or fools but the pair of you can’t cope with disagreement.
It is quite clear that this is a tactic from Johnson. The Government will use every legal option it has to pursue its purpose. No different to the other side. There has been a lot of discussion about Johnson being unelected and this by the same people talking about installing their own PM to do their bidding. Like I say, both sides doing whatever they can.
It seems to me that the ridiculous over reaction (talk last night about comparisons with Nazi Germany !!) has been rather self defeating.
cheshunt seagull
Well-known member
- Jul 5, 2003
- 2,594
True. This has moved on from being actually about EU membership and is about the type of country in which we want to live. The leave project is now about turning the UK into a brutally free market state with protections, standards and safeguards removed but they are using the 2016 referendum result as a mandate for this which clearly it isn't. Depressing how many people are falling for this.
Neville's Breakfast
Well-known member
Was ?
Thunder Bolt
Silly old bat
The Tories have already talked about removing employment rights.
Neville's Breakfast
Well-known member
Sorry, you’re right of course.
I forgot exactly how superior the Remain constituency thinks it is.
It's genuinely odd, isn't it?
This man lies all the time but this lie is something I want to believe, so I will.
Childish really.
You seem to have no clue whatsoever how parliamentary democracy works.
No, sorry, no dice. There is no requirement to be a Queen's Speech because of a change in PM, never has been.
To suggest nobody on the Leave side is a liar or a fool doesn't really do your argument much favour. There are plenty on both sides who are both liars and fools, to suggest otherwise is naive to the point of being breathtaking.
I don't agree with the Nazi Germany comparisons even slightly. To me this is much more reminiscent of the installation of puppet regimes behind the Iron Curtain in the years after 1945, using the "democratic process" to railroad through your whims and stacking the decks permanently in your favour.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
Interesting. I hope that is true and we can move onto the transition period arguing.
To be absolutely fair, any time there was a suggestion put forward several on the Leave side started banging about how it was "BRINO", making us a "vassal state" and not respecting "the will of the people". Compromise has to come from both sides, but while (certainly originally) Remain was happy to compromise toward Norway, Leave pulled further and further back to the point where Remain have gone (quite understandably) "**** you then".
