[Politics] Brexit

[theonlymikey]

A potentially worrying signal from UK bond markets that recession could be on the way: The yield curve on UK government debt has inverted.

What does this mean?

Ten-year government debt now offers a lower interest rate than two-year debt. Basically, bond market traders are pessimistic about the future of the UK economy.

They think growth will tank and central banks will have to slash interest rates in future to support the economy.

This is unusual and, in some circumstances, particularly in the US, has happened ahead of a recession.

YAY - A RECESSION


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-exchange-rate-global-recession-a9057196.html

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The same as EU members not having the right to walk into this country, works both ways

You do realise that non EU members will increase once we've left?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

If they have already got settled status, then there is nothing to worry about. Hardly going to kick people out.

Really? The Windrush generation are British citizens and have been kicked out.

 

[CHAPPERS]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...deal-if-northern-ireland-peace-at-risk-pelosi

There is no chance that a trade agreement between the United States and Britain will pass Congress if Brexit undermines the Good Friday peace agreement between Ireland and Northern Ireland, the speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has said.

“Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland,” Pelosi said.

Putin loving it.

 

[theonlymikey]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...deal-if-northern-ireland-peace-at-risk-pelosi



Putin loving it.

To summarise.

No deal = Hard border.

Hard border = GFA agreement breach.

GFA breach = No UK-US trade deal.


Brexiters really are running out of arguments.

 

[theonlymikey]

Are you saying we wouldnt then ?
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...gQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw2-6058YoClvFMTMQ4ed9-k&cf=1
regards
DR

Do you think a favourable trade deal will come for free? I wonder how that would affect the current unions with the EU? Namely, Norway and le Swiss.

Naive much.

 

[WATFORD zero]

If the choice was remain or no deal then I'd vote no deal. I'd prefer a deal though, but a good one not the shit May came up with.

So how do you think the 'good deal' that you prefer would look ?

Or, if you don't want to give an outline of it, how do you think it should differ from the deal put up by May, bearing in mind that in order to get agreement from the EU, it would have to protect the EU's Single market ?

It's just that I genuinely struggle to understand what this 'good deal' that everyone talks about looks like. I've ever seen anyone, on here or in Government, Press, interviews etc etc explain even in the briefest of outlines what this 'good deal', that you all want, actually consists of

 

[WATFORD zero]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/top-tory-admits-government-continually-lied-about-nodeal-brexit-preparations-115206663.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMIOQ9Gv3xGydmDaTJhHjx4N97iMEEHTmNW0zPLY9yHZzW1c1fWAKzibC2-two9Qtm3zNfxO2J2o4aDq01t8agIX2ESe0wQJyhe8heTA6zaVQk3l1nEqKf5i1zBuE0782-Ys5_V5Jq3vezRVZTm8x5AqEQHQTECnoSyCYNJ2jJKa

Top Tory admits Government continually lied about no-deal Brexit preparations

Well, if Iain Duncan Smith had asked me, I would have told him to check whether

The Customs posts had been built in NI
The Lorry parks had been built at all ports,
The IT infrastructure had been purchased and put in place
The systems had been designed, built, tested and deployed
The required staff had been recruited and trained

Then, maybe the complete lack of preparation for 'no deal' may not have come as such a surprise to him

 

[The Clamp]

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/top-tory-admits-government-continually-lied-about-nodeal-brexit-preparations-115206663.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMIOQ9Gv3xGydmDaTJhHjx4N97iMEEHTmNW0zPLY9yHZzW1c1fWAKzibC2-two9Qtm3zNfxO2J2o4aDq01t8agIX2ESe0wQJyhe8heTA6zaVQk3l1nEqKf5i1zBuE0782-Ys5_V5Jq3vezRVZTm8x5AqEQHQTECnoSyCYNJ2jJKa

Top Tory admits Government continually lied about no-deal Brexit preparations

Well, if Iain Duncan Smith had asked me, I would have told him to check whether

The Customs posts had been built in NI
The Lorry parks had been built at all ports,
The IT infrastructure had been purchased and put in place
The systems had been designed, built, tested and deployed
The required staff had been recruited and trained

Then, maybe the complete lack of preparation for 'no deal' may not have come as such a surprise to him

There will be rioting if a no deal is allowed to come to pass. The citizens won’t stand for it.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

So how do you think the 'good deal' that you prefer would look ?

Or, if you don't want to give an outline of it, how do you think it should differ from the deal put up by May, bearing in mind that in order to get agreement from the EU, it would have to protect the EU's Single market ?

It's just that I genuinely struggle to understand what this 'good deal' that everyone talks about looks like. I've ever seen anyone, on here or in Government, Press, interviews etc etc explain even in the briefest of outlines what this 'good deal', that you all want, actually consists of

A deal that neither means different rules apply to different parts of the UK nor ties us into something we need EU permission to get out of.

 

[WATFORD zero]

A deal that neither means different rules apply to different parts of the UK nor ties us into something we need EU permission to get out of.

OK, that's what you don't want. Good start with a nice couple of red lines

So how would the 'good deal' be set up to achieve that ?

 

[ManOfSussex]

A deal that neither means different rules apply to different parts of the UK nor ties us into something we need EU permission to get out of.

And you would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for that meddling Good Friday Agreement.

 

[Eeyore]

I, and I suspect plenty of other people, didn't expect leave to win. Problem being is that remain ran an awful campaign full of negatives and scaremongering. I still support leaving. In the same way, I don't expect us to beat Man City this season but you never know, maybe they'll use the wrong tactics and Murray will sneak a goal with his penis.

Only to have his penis ruled offside by VAR.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

200+ pages for sponsor guidance, 75 pages for the visa applicant guidance on a Tier 2 visa, 85 page application form for residency that requires 5 years of documentary evidence alongside it and a useless and hostile Home Office processing it? Was a 30% rejection rate on residency applications a while back.

Those whose residency hasn't been sorted out mustn't get ill whilst it is being sorted out.

[tweet]1161573881863376896[/tweet]

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Those whose residency hasn't been sorted out mustn't get ill whilst it is being sorted out.

[tweet]1161573881863376896[/tweet]

Complete and utter scaremongering.

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

Those whose residency hasn't been sorted out mustn't get ill whilst it is being sorted out.

[tweet]1161573881863376896[/tweet]

Best go back home then ??
regards
DR

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Best go back home then ??

Yes, so go explain that to my friend in Woodingdean from Holland who is married to a fireman. Tell her kids that she'd better move out.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Complete and utter scaremongering.

It is, if you stand in the corner with your fingers in your ears going la la la, can't hear you.

 

[Baldseagull]

Not if the pledge to allow certain non-UK born citizens to stay, grants certain rights to them, which it would have to.

Why are people so alarmist about doomsday approaching?!

''people will die''

No, they won't, not any more than would have done.

''people won't be able to stay here and work & live''.

No, that won't happen either.

''we won't be able to trade''.

We certainly will. Boris may be lots of things but he's not stupid and the Country will definitely be able to trade.

''the sky will fall in''.

Nope.

Is a pledge an Act of Parliament? Without legislation, EU citizens that have not applied for and received prior confirmation of their right to remain, will have no legal right to work or rent property, if we leave suddenly on Oct 31st. A pledge from Boris Johnson or a former PM is not legal. If I as an employer have an applicant on November 1st for a job that cannot prove their right to work in the UK, I can't legally employ them. I know you advise people over challenging Parking Tickets, do you find the letter of the law or the spirit of the law more useful?

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...austerity-behind-130000-deaths-uk-ippr-report

Brexit is going to reduce the income to the treasury, so austerity continues for longer, or possibly becomes more austere, unless the Government borrow massively, this is aside from any issues caused by customs and transportation delays for medicines, inability to fill posts in the NHS or emergency services affected.

No one has said we will not be able to trade, but we will face more barriers to trade, and it will cost more and as a result is likely to occur at a lower level. We certainly will not be able to sell Financial services into the EU as we can currently.
Yeah, the sky will not fall in, the only time this has ever been said in regards to Brexit is when leavers mock the real risks being pointed out.

 

[Baldseagull]

He's not retired. He lives on benefits. He lives a pretty empty life, lurching from giro to giro. Hence why he isn't too fussed if we crash out. He is under the false impression that life couldn't get any harder for him. He's in for quite a nasty surprise.

He might enjoy having more company though.