[Politics] Brexit

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I think that's what a lot of people are predicting. To me some kind of border in Ireland seems hard to avoid. The Swiss have one and they have no ports and follow EU regs.

Of course if she does get it through this is "the end of the beginning" and we will start to experience the relationship with the EU that Brexiteers said we had back in June 2016. The reality to many groomed by Dacre & co is going to come as a bit of a shock. The last 3 years have been a gradual discovery of our true place in the world order.

OK - but never forget: 'they need us more than we need them'!

 

[nicko31]

OK - but never forget: 'they need us more than we need them'!

Amazed the Japan and Singapore FTA's with the EU went ahead with us without us on board. Sections of the tabloid press suggested they would never happen unless we were part of the block

 

[beorhthelm]

I got the result of the referendum right but my predictions haven't been very good since. My current guess is that next week's vote will go against May, but will be fairly close. No no-deal and an extension will be supported; the EU, encouraged by a close vote on 13 March, will then offer an extra tweak and she'll get the thing through during April or May with a departure just before the Euro elections.

I hope I'm wrong and of course I probably will be.

proximity to European elections becomes interesting, im sure the EU dont really want us voting in parliament members while leaving.

 

[WATFORD zero]

proximity to European elections becomes interesting, im sure the EU dont really want us voting in parliament members while leaving.

I really can't see the point in a 2/3 month extension. TM effectively did that when she pulled the vote back in December. I think that if there is going to be an extension it could well be a couple of years, new elections, budget period etc etc to see if Britain can sort out what it wants properly. (If we ever knew )

 

[Gwylan]

I really can't see the point in a 2/3 month extension. TM effectively did that when she pulled the vote back in December. I think that if there is going to be an extension it could well be a couple of years, new elections, budget period etc etc to see if Britain can sort out what it wants properly. (If we ever knew )

The EU have said that they will (probably) give an extension but for at least nine months and, more likely, a year. They don't want piddling about with a month here and there ... and then extend again

 

[Pavilionaire]

Her Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration - for it is not a 'Deal' - will get rejected in the HoC, as it did before.

HoC will then vote not to leave without a Deal.

As a consequence HoC will then by definition have to vote for an extension to Article 50, but there would have to be a purpose to it.

I think Corbyn will then have to propose a People's Vote, but the key is getting HoC to agree to the question on the a ballot paper. This is where it gets interesting because you really have to offer people a Remain option, you have to offer people a credible Leave option too, but you can't offer a third choice otherwise could split the vote three ways with no majority. However, if the choice is Remain or a cliff edge Leave then not having some sort of transition period could be damaging.

I think there's merit in having a 'Remain or Leave' and then if you've ticked 'Leave' you then get a choice of 'Leave now' or 'May's Withdrawal Agreement'. If Leave gets the majority then whichever of the two Leave options polls highest is the one the UK goes for.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The EU have said that they will (probably) give an extension but for at least nine months and, more likely, a year. They don't want piddling about with a month here and there ... and then extend again

If the vote on March 13 is close enough to give the EU sufficient confidence that a minor tweak will push us over the line then I think they would give us a short procedural break to get the departure paperwork in order.

What do I know and as I said, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Her Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration - for it is not a 'Deal' - will get rejected in the HoC, as it did before.

HoC will then vote not to leave without a Deal.

As a consequence HoC will then by definition have to vote for an extension to Article 50, but there would have to be a purpose to it.

I think Corbyn will then have to propose a People's Vote, but the key is getting HoC to agree to the question on the a ballot paper. This is where it gets interesting because you really have to offer people a Remain option, you have to offer people a credible Leave option too, but you can't offer a third choice otherwise could split the vote three ways with no majority. However, if the choice is Remain or a cliff edge Leave then not having some sort of transition period could be damaging.

I think there's merit in having a 'Remain or Leave' and then if you've ticked 'Leave' you then get a choice of 'Leave now' or 'May's Withdrawal Agreement'. If Leave gets the majority then whichever of the two Leave options polls highest is the one the UK goes for.

I much prefer your prediction to mine!

One problem with the suggestion in the last para is that it will work only with Leave voters of the "I-want-to-leave-and-I-don't-care-how" variety. These people would have a view on whether May's Deal or No-Deal is better - they see them as variants of the same thing - and would choose accordingly. There are plenty of people like that - most leave posters on this thread for example - but several of the Leave voters I know would actually prefer to Remain than accept May's so-called Brino. Even B Johnson has suggested he might be one of them. Your excellent idea wouldn't work for such people.

One interesting possibility might be that the EU refused to give May the sort of extension she wanted. We would then be faced with the armageddon of a No Deal. All the UK could then do to avoid it would be to revoke article 50 at the very last moment.

It would be nice to have a civilised discussion with Leave voters about this but unfortunately all they seem able to do is shout LOONS! at people.

 

[Driver8]

Toyota warns a no-deal Brexit could hit future UK investment http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47457219

BMW may shift Mini and engine work from UK in no-deal Brexit http://news.sky.com/story/bmw-may-shift-mini-and-engine-work-from-uk-in-no-deal-brexit-11655739

 

[nicko31]

BMW Cowley will be shutting end of the month for a month incase of no deal

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/05/bmw-mini-cowley-no-deal-brexit-toyota

And then may close forever.

FINAL WARNING

 

[A1X]

Has the Jefferson Group Twitter page posted that news about the Mini? Must not be as big news as three blokes in a shed who've just flogged a motorcycle helmet to someone in South Africa on eBay.

Bit embarrassing that, an icon of Britain upping and leaving thanks to Brexit. There's a metaphor in there somewhere.

 

[Hamilton]

I much prefer your prediction to mine!

One problem with the suggestion in the last para is that it will work only with Leave voters of the "I-want-to-leave-and-I-don't-care-how" variety. These people would have a view on whether May's Deal or No-Deal is better - they see them as variants of the same thing - and would choose accordingly. There are plenty of people like that - most leave posters on this thread for example - but several of the Leave voters I know would actually prefer to Remain than accept May's so-called Brino. Even B Johnson has suggested he might be one of them. Your excellent idea wouldn't work for such people.

One interesting possibility might be that the EU refused to give May the sort of extension she wanted. We would then be faced with the armageddon of a No Deal. All the UK could then do to avoid it would be to revoke article 50 at the very last moment.

It would be nice to have a civilised discussion with Leave voters about this but unfortunately all they seem able to do is shout LOONS! at people.

And of course, even if I vote remain, I should still have a say on how we leave. Just as if we were to remain, leavers should have a say on any future EU relationship.

However, I don’t think there will be a second vote.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Two Professors]

On one hand, we are told that all those nasty racist brexiteers who voted leave are causing thousands of hard-working Eu citizens (mainly lovely nurses) to flee the country now you are telling me this would have happened anyway?

Perhaps they are going home because they don't fancy living in a bin lorry?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The lies are just as blatant as at the start.


[tweet]1102900019127111680[/tweet]

 

[portslade seagull]

The lies are just as blatant as at the start.


[tweet]1102900019127111680[/tweet]

Polls mean nothing. Weren't they saying that before the vote in 2016 and the election as well for them to then be ridiculed.

 

[Simster]

Polls mean nothing. Weren't they saying that before the vote in 2016 and the election as well for them to then be ridiculed.

Maybe, but surely more reliable than IDS pronouncing: "the vast majority want to get out now".

I mean, you f**kin' WHAT?

 

[A1X]

Polls mean nothing. Weren't they saying that before the vote in 2016 and the election as well for them to then be ridiculed.

No.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

BMW has told Sky News it will "have to consider" ending Mini production at its Cowley site in Oxfordshire in the event of a "no-deal" Brexit and that the company would "not be very happy" with a two to three month Brexit delay

All. The. Cards.

 

[beorhthelm]

BMW have been contemplating what to do with Cowley for years. they want to move production of new electric motors to Germany and probably main production too, as they can produce cheaper there.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I much prefer your prediction to mine!

One problem with the suggestion in the last para is that it will work only with Leave voters of the "I-want-to-leave-and-I-don't-care-how" variety. These people would have a view on whether May's Deal or No-Deal is better - they see them as variants of the same thing - and would choose accordingly. There are plenty of people like that - most leave posters on this thread for example - but several of the Leave voters I know would actually prefer to Remain than accept May's so-called Brino. Even B Johnson has suggested he might be one of them. Your excellent idea wouldn't work for such people.

One interesting possibility might be that the EU refused to give May the sort of extension she wanted. We would then be faced with the armageddon of a No Deal. All the UK could then do to avoid it would be to revoke article 50 at the very last moment.

It would be nice to have a civilised discussion with Leave voters about this but unfortunately all they seem able to do is shout LOONS! at people.

The EU has been entirely consistent and predictable throughout and will certainly give us an extension provided there is some sort of game changing event in the extension period such as a General Election or People's Vote. I think that's fair enough.

As for my 'two option' for Leave, this is one more option that Leavers had in 2016. Anyone who wants No Deal has that choice, while anyone choosing May's Withdrawal Agreement buys some time for the government to actually negotiate a Deal.

Indeed, my proposal is generous to Leavers because it may even persuade some Remainers to vote for May's Deal if they're equally as happy with Soft Brexit / Norway Option. But that's the carrot offered to the ERG that may get their votes with Corbyn to get a majority in the HoC for a People's Vote.