[Politics] Brexit

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

A couple of days ago I posted a question aimed at Leavers. It was to identify one sector of British industry that they thought would benefit from Leaving. I think the only responses received were from Remainers trying to be fair - and usually anticipating a continuing fall in Sterling which of course is not an unmixed blessing in itself.


This was a chance for Leavers to redress the unrelenting gloom (not so much a stream as a deluge) which has come from industry, think tanks, academia and reportage. This is not a p*ss-take or an insult-fest - just a request for bit of constructive forecasting.


Any takers please?

 

[pb21]

Correct.
It's not the same at all. I gave an example with a poll on here a long time ago, and it's clear that people would prefer a soft Brexit than a hard one. It's not clear that people would want to stay in the EU, as the polls are pretty much the same now as before the referendum.

I think it’s clear that people would prefer a soft Brexit over remaining in the EU; both on the basis of the original vote and how things currently stand. But I think that is still based on a hypothetical idea of ‘soft Brexit’ and what that actually means and the implications of it (both positive and negative) still aren’t clear. Nevertheless this is what we should be pursuing.

What isn’t clear is what people would prefer when it comes to the crunch and everything is laid out, in as much objective detail as is possible.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Correct.
It's not the same at all. I gave an example with a poll on here a long time ago, and it's clear that people would prefer a soft Brexit than a hard one. It's not clear that people would want to stay in the EU, as the polls are pretty much the same now as before the referendum.

Sorry Trig, you may not have seen the poll I did last week that about 500 voted on. (It's now been merged into this thread, so don't have exact figures but)

Results were

NSC Poll July 2018 How would you vote in a referendum? - 75% remain, 21% leave (17% no deal, 4% TM's negotiated deal)

and for comparison the last NSC poll before the original referendum

NSC Poll June 2016 How would you vote in a referendum? - 56% remain, 38% leave

So NSC has always been more pro EU than the general electorate, but that is still some swing.

*Disclaimer* I wouldn't trust any of the swivel-eyed loons who vote in polls on NSC in any way whatsoever

 

[Triggaaar]

Sorry Trig, you may not have seen the poll I did last week that over 500 voted on. (It's now been merged into this thread, so don't have exact figures but)

Results were

NSC Poll July 2018 How would you vote in a referendum? - 75% remain, 21% leave (17% no deal, 4% TM's negotiated deal)

and for comparison the last NSC poll before the original referendum

NSC Poll June 2016 How would you vote in a referendum? - 56% remain, 38% leave

So NSC has always been more pro EU than the general electorate, but that is still some swing.

Not really, I didn't see the poll and didn't vote, and the same will be true of many others. There are proper polls being carried on on leave/remain still, so what's the point in doing one here, other than to see how NSC users differ from the rest of the country?

The fact is, we had a referendum, and people voted out.

*Disclaimer* I wouldn't trust any of the swivel-eyed loons who vote in polls on NSC in any way whatsoever

Quite

 

[nicko31]

A couple of days ago I posted a question aimed at Leavers. It was to identify one sector of British industry that they thought would benefit from Leaving. I think the only responses received were from Remainers trying to be fair - and usually anticipating a continuing fall in Sterling which of course is not an unmixed blessing in itself.


This was a chance for Leavers to redress the unrelenting gloom (not so much a stream as a deluge) which has come from industry, think tanks, academia and reportage. This is not a p*ss-take or an insult-fest - just a request for bit of constructive forecasting.


Any takers please?

It could be a long wait, reminds me of when I posted a question about the NI border about 6 months ago. All I got was break up the UK and get on with Brexit, same as no deal I guess...

 

[Triggaaar]

I think it’s clear that people would prefer a soft Brexit over remaining in the EU; both on the basis of the original vote and how things currently stand. But I think that is still based on a hypothetical idea of ‘soft Brexit’ and what that actually means and the implications of it (both positive and negative) still aren’t clear. Nevertheless this is what we should be pursuing.

Agreed.

What isn’t clear is what people would prefer when it comes to the crunch and everything is laid out, in as much objective detail as is possible.

Again agreed - that is the major problem, but there's not really a way around it.

What sucks the most is that we have to trust our politicians to do what's best for the country, and it seems that practically none of us do trust them to not balls it up.

 

[nicko31]

Not really, I didn't see the poll and didn't vote, and the same will be true of many others. There are proper polls being carried on on leave/remain still, so what's the point in doing one here, other than to see how NSC users differ from the rest of the country?

The fact is, we had a referendum, and people voted out.

Quite

Yeah a fraudulent one based on lies and misinformation. We will soon know what Brexit actually means for the nation. People are changing their minds as reality bites

 

[Triggaaar]

A couple of days ago I posted a question aimed at Leavers. It was to identify one sector of British industry that they thought would benefit from Leaving. I think the only responses received were from Remainers trying to be fair - and usually anticipating a continuing fall in Sterling which of course is not an unmixed blessing in itself.

This was a chance for Leavers to redress the unrelenting gloom (not so much a stream as a deluge) which has come from industry, think tanks, academia and reportage. This is not a p*ss-take or an insult-fest - just a request for bit of constructive forecasting.

Any takers please?

I'm against the direction the EU is going. I think if it continues in it's current coarse, a few countries will fail (such as Greece), and the Euro could fail too, leading to a recession that affects many of our industries. I think our best chance of stopping this was to leave, so all of our industries that export to the EU could benefit.

 

[Triggaaar]

Yeah a fraudulent one based on lies and misinformation.

So only like every general election we've ever had then.

We will soon know what Brexit actually means for the nation. People are changing their minds as reality bites

You must know that's complete nonsense. Reality isn't biting, nothing has changed, except for the amplification of the rhetoric from the remainers.

 

[Hotchilidog]

So only like every general election we've ever had then.
You must know that's complete nonsense. Reality isn't biting, nothing has changed, except for the amplification of the rhetoric from the remainers.

Your head really is in the sand isn't it. Our industries already have the BEST deal they can have with the EU, we have unencumbered access to the single market, we are not part of Schengen, and are not in the Eurozone. Leaving the EU will put an additional barrier in front of that, this is a.......FACT. So the industries you profess will benefit from an EU exit will not. At least the WTO headbangers are living under the misguided notion that the RoW will bend over to give us favourable deals, you think we can take advantage of a weakened Europe when we are already in an excellent position.

 

[Baldseagull]

Point 2 is that most people would prefer a soft Brexit over a hard Brexit. I know that is the case, and it's not difficult to prove with very clear polling. So while Leave meant different things to different people, the facts are that the majority want to leave, and the majority would prefer a soft Brexit over a hard one.

Well, I have heard some of those that voted to leave say they would rather stay as full members, than be in a position where we are rule takers. I have heard them and others say that if we still have free movement of labour after Brexit, there is no point in doing it.
Yes, most people voted to leave, but once the type of Leaving we do is known, many of them might say they would prefer to remain than leave to that position. It is wrong to say, they voted leave so we have to do it, even to a state nobody wanted. What you are doing here is taking the Leave vote as a fait accompli, then moving on to the whole population again to ask what type of leave they would like, well of course if Brexit must happen, I and the other remainers would mostly like that to be as soft as possible, but many of the leavers, faced with maintaining free movement of labour, and being a rule taker, would prefer to stay in, and the vast majority of remainers are still of that opinion. This is why referendums have such a poor reputation in democracies, you can hold a series of referendums that funnel the vote in a direction no one really wanted to take, and subvert the true will of the people. If we hold a second referendum and remaining is not an option, then it is not a fair question.

 

[Triggaaar]

Your head really is in the sand isn't it.

No, I'm responding to points that people have posted, and you seem to be ignoring them and jumping straight to your sound-bites.

Our industries already have the BEST deal they can have with the EU, we have unencumbered access to the single market, we are not part of Schengen, and are not in the Eurozone.

I didn't say otherwise.

Leaving the EU will put an additional barrier in front of that, this is a.......FACT. So the industries you profess will benefit from an EU exit will not.

Looks like you didn't even read/understand the post. No worries.

At least the WTO headbangers are living under the misguided notion that the RoW will bend over to give us favourable deals, you think we can take advantage of a weakened Europe when we are already in an excellent position.

Nope, I didn't say that either.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well, I have heard some of those that voted to leave say they would rather stay as full members, than be in a position where we are rule takers.

Fair enough. Although I would point out that we are already rule takers. We have a seat at the table, but when we disagree with others in the EU about trade rules, we get out-voted and have to follow their rules anyway.

I have heard them and others say that if we still have free movement of labour after Brexit, there is no point in doing it.
Yes, most people voted to leave, but once the type of Leaving we do is known, many of them might say they would prefer to remain than leave to that position.

Yes that's a fair point.

It is wrong to say, they voted leave so we have to do it, even to a state nobody wanted.

I can see your point, but the problem is that the alternatives are somewhat unworkable. What we want is to have all the details of a potential leave agreement, and put that to the population - but that's not possible

What you are doing here is taking the Leave vote as a fait accompli, then moving on to the whole population again to ask what type of leave they would like, well of course if Brexit must happen, I and the other remainers would mostly like that to be as soft as possible, but many of the leavers, faced with maintaining free movement of labour, and being a rule taker, would prefer to stay in, and the vast majority of remainers are still of that opinion. This is why referendums have such a poor reputation in democracies, you can hold a series of referendums that funnel the vote in a direction no one really wanted to take, and subvert the true will of the people. If we hold a second referendum and remaining is not an option, then it is not a fair question.

So what's your solution?

 

[nicko31]

Your head really is in the sand isn't it. Our industries already have the BEST deal they can have with the EU, we have unencumbered access to the single market, we are not part of Schengen, and are not in the Eurozone. Leaving the EU will put an additional barrier in front of that, this is a.......FACT. So the industries you profess will benefit from an EU exit will not. At least the WTO headbangers are living under the misguided notion that the RoW will bend over to give us favourable deals, you think we can take advantage of a weakened Europe when we are already in an excellent position.

Think this is what leaves so many in Europe so perplexed, we had the best of all worlds and we've f**ked it up

Since the referendum we've had a currency that has declined 17%, nagging inflation, investment that has largely dried up and an economy that has slipped from top to bottom of the G7. Yet it was project fear and apparently no deal is project fear again, its just like millennium bug.

Brexiteers must feel like salesman that won the argument with their customer but lost the sale.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I'm against the direction the EU is going. I think if it continues in it's current coarse, a few countries will fail (such as Greece), and the Euro could fail too, leading to a recession that affects many of our industries. I think our best chance of stopping this was to leave, so all of our industries that export to the EU could benefit.

OK. Bit of a blanket response and based on an arguable premise. But thanks anyway.

 

[Triggaaar]

OK. Bit of a blanket response and based on an arguable premise.

Definitely arguable. Apart from my dislike of the direction EU appears to be heading, voting for leave wasn't about trying to benefit our industry for me. It was about leaving an organisation I dislike, and hoping that our industry wouldn't suffer too much.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Could you post a link to the existing polls showing this desire?

Sorry, you asked me this a couple of days ago and I didn't fully respond. Apologies. The attached refers to the changing public mood I mentioned.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougo...ain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

 

[nicko31]

Sorry, you asked me this a couple of days ago and I didn't fully respond. Apologies. The attached refers to the changing public mood I mentioned.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougo...ain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

When Corbyn takes a lead of 5% in the polls, we really are in trouble

 

[Triggaaar]

For it to happen the opinion polls would have to continue to show the current public wish for a second referendum and to remain in the EU.

Could you post a link to the existing polls showing this desire?

Sorry, you asked me this a couple of days ago and I didn't fully respond. Apologies.

No problem.

The attached refers to the changing public mood I mentioned.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougo...ain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7

But you said the public want a second referendum, and they want to remain in the EU, and the link you've given says that people would rather stay in the EU than have a hard Brexit (which is an opinion I've always maintained).

 

[Baldseagull]

Fair enough. Although I would point out that we are already rule takers. We have a seat at the table, but when we disagree with others in the EU about trade rules, we get out-voted and have to follow their rules anyway.

Yes that's a fair point.
I can see your point, but the problem is that the alternatives are somewhat unworkable. What we want is to have all the details of a potential leave agreement, and put that to the population - but that's not possible

So what's your solution?

Tricky. There is no good solution from where we are, right now we should carry on negotiating, but I am going to assume we are no further forward as the deadline draws close.
If we are doing this on the basis of a referendum, I think only a referendum can undo it. The options on the paper are a problem though, it seems reasonable to me for there not to be an option to leave without a deal, it is just such a terrible idea that it should not be entertained, but there are some who will want that on there. The options should be to rescind A50 and repeal the withdrawal bill, i.e. remain in the EU on our current terms, or leave to EEA membership. If a deal has been agreed in time, then that can be a third option, or an alternative to the EEA option.