[Politics] Brexit

[portslade seagull]

I know PO, all too predictable. Javid sounded almost embarrassed to be asking as many as three simple questions. The Brexiteer rowing team have been mastering how to row backwards in a race where the finish line is ahead of them

Your making something out of nothing again. Most of these have been here years so deserve the chance to stay. If your championing the cause for criminals however that is a little different.

 

[pastafarian]

It really is all over isn't it.

Firstly, the fantasists. It has finally dawned, even on [MENTION=14132]Two Professors[/MENTION], [MENTION=5101]BigGully[/MENTION], [MENTION=21401]pastafarian[/MENTION] and [MENTION=11191]Pretty pink fairy[/MENTION], that Theresa May failing to negotiate a deal doesn't equal their 'No deal'. Even their massive joint intellect has realised that 9 months is insufficient time to put in place borders, customs points and systems to manage the WTO rules and tariffs and that any failure to get a deal will actually mean further EU extensions on steadily worsening terms. Tick Tock Indeed.

Then we get to the 'Just get on with it' brigade. The Government can't even put together a white paper on Trade and Borders to start negotiations with the EU. Ask [MENTION=599]beorhthelm[/MENTION], [MENTION=578]portslade seagull[/MENTION] and [MENTION=12935]GT49er[/MENTION] what they think Theresa May should do differently or what they believe should be done on the border issue and the trade deal and they can't give a coherent solution. So what we are going to 'Get on with', nobody knows, least of all, them.

Lastly, we get to the people who seem to have a grasp of the implications of Brexit, [MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION] and [MENTION=33253]JC Footy Genius[/MENTION] (Sorry gentleman, the very definition of damning with faint praise). Even they are reduced to avoiding the main issue with forays of whataboutism where they win the occasional argument.

Two years on from the vote, 9 months from us 'leaving' the EU what have we got ? Two possibilities

1/ Softest of soft Brexits, still in a customs union, freedom of movement, significant contributions, no influence whatsoever.

2/ Continued fudging/Further extensions of membership until another vote (GE or referendum).

But this is what we voted for, and this is the reality of where this total clusterf*** has got us,

But who could have seen this coming

View attachment 97887

This post makes no sense, clamp was quite clear that there were only four Brexiteers left posting on this thread and you have identified more than double that in one post.

 

[pastafarian]

I think we agree on quite a lot, but

I didn't say 'Brexit isn't going to happen' :

Does this mean you have finally seen the light and dropped your “Brexit wont happen” stance. Its very hard to understand, as each page progresses, as to what you are thinking generally, but perhaps you can just clarify this one point.

 

[pastafarian]

If the farmers got their way and the government brought in a seasonal visa scheme, so we could get crop pickers from the continenet( one sussex farmer just said that they get 30,000 mainly Romania pickers for the berry industry alone) would that appease the people who voted for no immigration/ migration or is that crossing the line and not what people voted for?

Firstly there is a major flaw in your question, I don’t recall those looking for controlled borders and managed migration in the future, outside the EU, seeking Zero or No immigration at all.
(how can managed immigration equate to No or Zero migration anyway)

Quite a few remainers painted this false picture of course, they still do, some even tried to say leavers were actually seeking mass deportations of those already here, patently untrue of course but we all know how those extremist types like to lie to push a false narrative.

But back to your point, the seasonal work visa that we used to have for farm workers was farm specific(the majority of temporary seasonal workers live in farm accom either on or near the farm), you couldn’t for example leave that farm and start working elsewhere. The visa was valid for six months and the agencies that were given the licence to find workers for farms who identified a shortfall in workers had to carry out a criminal check.

This visa scheme was talked about pre-referendum as something that could be reintroduced. So, identifying a shortfall in temp workers, issuing temporary work permits to address the shortfall and making sure the workers are not wrong uns via criminal checks does indeed tick all the boxes for those voting for managed migration and border controls. Bring it on.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

I know PO, all too predictable. Javid sounded almost embarrassed to be asking as many as three simple questions. The Brexiteer rowing team have been mastering how to row backwards in a race where the finish line is ahead of them

There are a small number of communities that may have been adversely affected by EU immigration, and there are certainly people who like to blame foreigners for our ills but I suspect that genuine public concern about the number of EU citizens in the country was always pretty thin - it was just another of those legitimate-sounding reasons people adopted as cover for wanting to stick one on the 'elite'.

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. If there really is a deep and widespread worry about the number of EU citizens here we can expect a huge protest about Javid's three questions. If there isn't then the ripples will be few. Let's see which it is.

 

[pastafarian]

There are a small number of communities that may have been adversely affected by EU immigration, and there are certainly people who like to blame foreigners for our ills but I suspect that genuine public concern about the number of EU citizens in the country was always pretty thin - it was just another of those legitimate-sounding reasons people adopted as cover for wanting to stick one on the 'elite'.

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. If there really is a deep and widespread worry about the number of EU citizens here we can expect a huge protest about Javid's three questions. If there isn't then the ripples will be few. Let's see which it is.

The widespread worry was about the number of EU citizens coming here year after year after year after year for ever, with no chance of controlling the numbers crossing the border whilst we were members of the EU. The voters did something about that though.
You are misrepresenting voters concerns by transferring that worry falsely onto EU citizens already here...........what a surprise.
Javid rocks by the way. Top geezer.

 

[Baldseagull]

This post makes no sense, clamp was quite clear that there were only four Brexiteers left posting on this thread and you have identified more than double that in one post.

I think the first four are in the category of feckwiteer.

 

[The Clamp]

Warning over looming UK recession

By David Thorpe

The UK economy is reaching the peak of its current cycle with a recession likely around 2020, according to the chief investment officer of Seneca.

Peter Elston has begun to reduce his exposure to the UK market as "the direction of travel" is clear on interest rates, and the economy is moving into the mature stage of the cycle.

As well as reducing his UK equity exposure, Mr Elston is now holding more cash in portfolios he runs.

He cited unemployment in the UK being 4.3 per cent, wage growth having accelerated from 1.8 per cent to 2.8 in the past year, and inflation being above the central bank’s target rate of 2 per cent, as signs the economy is in the late stage of the cycle, before moving to recession.

Mr Elston allocates capital based on the "business cycle" theory of economics pioneered by Joseph Schumpeter, which takes the view that economies move in cycles from recession to recovery to expansion and maturity and then back to recession.

As an economy moves into the mature phase, growth will be strong, unemployment low, and inflation rising. It is at this point, according to Mr Elston, that central banks are putting interest interest rates up regularly in order to prevent inflation getting out of control.

It is at this point that Mr Elston tries to reduce his equity exposure. He began selling his US equities in about 18 months ago as that country began putting interest rates up.

In February the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane told the Treasury Select Committee he would need to see real wage growth, above target inflation and unemployment below 4.5 per cent as the conditions for rates to rise.

The market has been expecting a UK interest rate rise in May for some time but Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned yesterday (19 April) the Brexit negotiations may delay this because of the uncertainty they create..

This could act to drive inflation downwards and reduce the rate of economic growth, denting the need for interest rate rises and slowing down the economic cycle.

Mr Elston said even if this scenario occurs, "the direction of travel" on interest rates was clear, that they will move upwards. He added that if no deal is agreed with the European Union, then it was possible a recession would happen anyway, making his decision to reduce UK equities look prudent.

His view contrasts with that of Richard Buxton, who manages the £2.2bn Old Mutual UK Alpha fund and said the economy has only now reached a level where it has regained ground lost during the global financial crisis, so there is more capacity in the economy, rather than it being the end of the cycle.

Mr Buxton said he has "no worries" about the outlook for the economy.

Philip Milton, who runs Philip Milton and Co, an advice firm in Devon, said the FTSE 100 was trading at a substantial discount to other markets, and to the valuation of the bond markets, making it an attractive option for investors.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The widespread worry was about the number of EU citizens coming here year after year after year after year for ever, with no chance of controlling the numbers crossing the border whilst we were members of the EU. The voters did something about that though.
You are misrepresenting voters concerns by transferring that worry falsely onto EU citizens already here...........what a surprise.
Javid rocks by the way. Top geezer.

We had the legislation available to stop them coming here year after year, but chose not to use it. You can go to France for three months, but then have to apply to stay and work.
Germany also has its own rules.
The EU doesn't legislate overall, for Freedom of Movement, as each country is capable under EU rules of its own legislation.

In the meantime, our Home Office is turning down visas for qualified doctors, desperately needed here, whilst still in the EU.

Posters of Farage, with long queues of immigrants behind him, should be called out for what they were, racist.

 

[Hampster Gull]

There are a small number of communities that may have been adversely affected by EU immigration, and there are certainly people who like to blame foreigners for our ills but I suspect that genuine public concern about the number of EU citizens in the country was always pretty thin - it was just another of those legitimate-sounding reasons people adopted as cover for wanting to stick one on the 'elite'.

The proof of the pudding will be in the eating. If there really is a deep and widespread worry about the number of EU citizens here we can expect a huge protest about Javid's three questions. If there isn't then the ripples will be few. Let's see which it is.

Indeed. It will be a few ripples at best.

I see Airbus have said the warning was not part of "project fear, but its "dawning reality". It employs about 14,000 people at 25 different sites in the UK.

 

[Hampster Gull]

We had the legislation available to stop them coming here year after year, but chose not to use it. You can go to France for three months, but then have to apply to stay and work.
Germany also has its own rules.
The EU doesn't legislate overall, for Freedom of Movement, as each country is capable under EU rules of its own legislation

That is the saddest thing here, people blame the EU but it was within our governments gift. In the meantime they want to hand even up more power to those who have proved themselves incompetent.

 

[pastafarian]

Warning over looming UK recession

By David Thorpe

The UK economy is reaching the peak of its current cycle with a recession likely around 2020, according to the chief investment officer of Seneca.

Peter Elston has begun to reduce his exposure to the UK market as "the direction of travel" is clear on interest rates, and the economy is moving into the mature stage of the cycle.

As well as reducing his UK equity exposure, Mr Elston is now holding more cash in portfolios he runs.

He cited unemployment in the UK being 4.3 per cent, wage growth having accelerated from 1.8 per cent to 2.8 in the past year, and inflation being above the central bank’s target rate of 2 per cent, as signs the economy is in the late stage of the cycle, before moving to recession.

Mr Elston allocates capital based on the "business cycle" theory of economics pioneered by Joseph Schumpeter, which takes the view that economies move in cycles from recession to recovery to expansion and maturity and then back to recession.

As an economy moves into the mature phase, growth will be strong, unemployment low, and inflation rising. It is at this point, according to Mr Elston, that central banks are putting interest interest rates up regularly in order to prevent inflation getting out of control.

It is at this point that Mr Elston tries to reduce his equity exposure. He began selling his US equities in about 18 months ago as that country began putting interest rates up.

In February the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane told the Treasury Select Committee he would need to see real wage growth, above target inflation and unemployment below 4.5 per cent as the conditions for rates to rise.

The market has been expecting a UK interest rate rise in May for some time but Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned yesterday (19 April) the Brexit negotiations may delay this because of the uncertainty they create..

This could act to drive inflation downwards and reduce the rate of economic growth, denting the need for interest rate rises and slowing down the economic cycle.

Mr Elston said even if this scenario occurs, "the direction of travel" on interest rates was clear, that they will move upwards. He added that if no deal is agreed with the European Union, then it was possible a recession would happen anyway, making his decision to reduce UK equities look prudent.

His view contrasts with that of Richard Buxton, who manages the £2.2bn Old Mutual UK Alpha fund and said the economy has only now reached a level where it has regained ground lost during the global financial crisis, so there is more capacity in the economy, rather than it being the end of the cycle.

Mr Buxton said he has "no worries" about the outlook for the economy.

Philip Milton, who runs Philip Milton and Co, an advice firm in Devon, said the FTSE 100 was trading at a substantial discount to other markets, and to the valuation of the bond markets, making it an attractive option for investors.

Crikey, an article where one bloke predicts a recession and another discounts his predictions……mind-blowing stuff.
Its like the economist who has predicted six out of the last two recessions

More importantly what happened to your prediction of a huge economic crash because of Brexit, to occur by the end of 2017/start of 2018?

There'll be a huge crash and people will lose homes, cars, marriages and livelihoods but as long as we have our freedom from Europe, who cares?!

When does this huge crash because of Brexit begin?

I'd estimate sometime around end of 2017/start of 2018.

Seems to have gone the same way to your other predictions like the one you made only a few weeks after the original vote in 2016

It's all going wrong for Brexiteers. Second ref only a few months away. My words? Mark 'em son. It's happening! Wayoooo!!

Mark my words eh

 

[pastafarian]

We had the legislation available to stop them coming here year after year, but chose not to use it. You can go to France for three months, but then have to apply to stay and work.
Germany also has its own rules.
The EU doesn't legislate overall, for Freedom of Movement, as each country is capable under EU rules of its own legislation.

In the meantime, our Home Office is turning down visas for qualified doctors, desperately needed here, whilst still in the EU.

Posters of Farage, with long queues of immigrants behind him, should be called out for what they were, racist.

You keep repeating that we have the legislation available to stop people crossing the border year after year and are quite capable of using said legislation to control our borders, but don’t bother, you know, the same controls we have have with non EU citizens of quotas and visa permits for entry, and yet you still wont let anyone know what this legislation is……..why are you insisting on keeping it a secret just to yourself?
If you continue to decide not showing what it is we can use to control entrance into the country before entry is gained and by what number im going to have to believe you are still lying.


Posters of migrants flooding Europe should be recognised for exactly their intention, that nations without borders is fracking daft and cant protect its own citizens and that The EU presented with a crisis on its doorstep found itself to be utterly void of direction and policy because so many cooks spoiling the broth could not agree to have one.
Shit club shit fans

 

[nicko31]

Warning over looming UK recession

By David Thorpe

The UK economy is reaching the peak of its current cycle with a recession likely around 2020, according to the chief investment officer of Seneca.

Peter Elston has begun to reduce his exposure to the UK market as "the direction of travel" is clear on interest rates, and the economy is moving into the mature stage of the cycle.

As well as reducing his UK equity exposure, Mr Elston is now holding more cash in portfolios he runs.

He cited unemployment in the UK being 4.3 per cent, wage growth having accelerated from 1.8 per cent to 2.8 in the past year, and inflation being above the central bank’s target rate of 2 per cent, as signs the economy is in the late stage of the cycle, before moving to recession.

Mr Elston allocates capital based on the "business cycle" theory of economics pioneered by Joseph Schumpeter, which takes the view that economies move in cycles from recession to recovery to expansion and maturity and then back to recession.

As an economy moves into the mature phase, growth will be strong, unemployment low, and inflation rising. It is at this point, according to Mr Elston, that central banks are putting interest interest rates up regularly in order to prevent inflation getting out of control.

It is at this point that Mr Elston tries to reduce his equity exposure. He began selling his US equities in about 18 months ago as that country began putting interest rates up.

In February the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane told the Treasury Select Committee he would need to see real wage growth, above target inflation and unemployment below 4.5 per cent as the conditions for rates to rise.

The market has been expecting a UK interest rate rise in May for some time but Bank of England governor Mark Carney warned yesterday (19 April) the Brexit negotiations may delay this because of the uncertainty they create..

This could act to drive inflation downwards and reduce the rate of economic growth, denting the need for interest rate rises and slowing down the economic cycle.

Mr Elston said even if this scenario occurs, "the direction of travel" on interest rates was clear, that they will move upwards. He added that if no deal is agreed with the European Union, then it was possible a recession would happen anyway, making his decision to reduce UK equities look prudent.

His view contrasts with that of Richard Buxton, who manages the £2.2bn Old Mutual UK Alpha fund and said the economy has only now reached a level where it has regained ground lost during the global financial crisis, so there is more capacity in the economy, rather than it being the end of the cycle.

Mr Buxton said he has "no worries" about the outlook for the economy.

Philip Milton, who runs Philip Milton and Co, an advice firm in Devon, said the FTSE 100 was trading at a substantial discount to other markets, and to the valuation of the bond markets, making it an attractive option for investors.

I see Airbus are pretty much saying today, the government needs to get real or 100,000 jobs mostly in Brexit towns are going elsewhere. I take that as staying in some sort of customs union

As for our economy, the last 2 years have seen pretty modest growth while the rest of the world has seen strong growth. You only have to look at our interest rates where we are in the cycle

Brexit has already cost us 10's of billions that we won't claw back anytime soon. A decision needs to be made on the way forward will it be just "bad" or "worse"

 

[Dave the OAP]

I see Airbus are pretty much saying today, the government needs to get real or 100,000 jobs mostly in Brexit towns are going elsewhere. I take that as staying in some sort of customs union

As for our economy, the last 2 years have seen pretty modest growth while the rest of the world has seen strong growth. You only have to look at our interest rates where we are in the cycle

Brexit has already cost us 10's of billions that we won't claw back anytime soon. A decision needs to be made on the way forward will it be just "bad" or "worse"

Not that I can see his/ her posts, but I assume pastawhatsisface will be on here telling us all it is fake news and all will be well as everyone in the world is battering down our doors to buy our....erm...whatever we make now

 

[Lincoln Imp]

The widespread worry was about the number of EU citizens coming here year after year after year after year for ever, with no chance of controlling the numbers crossing the border whilst we were members of the EU. The voters did something about that though.
You are misrepresenting voters concerns by transferring that worry falsely onto EU citizens already here...........what a surprise.
Javid rocks by the way. Top geezer.

This is is extrapolation argument... 'If things carry on as they are a city the size of Newcastle will be added to our population every other year until there's no green space left'. Things don't work like that as most of us know, although it was an argument of choice for the Leave campaign's populist headline creators. Cranked up the immigrant fears very effectively.

 

[ManOfSussex]

I see, unsurprisingly, Paul Dacre wasn't best pleased at Javid's 3 questions and as well as pointing out the 3.8m will have access to hospitals, pensions and benefits and pay less than a British passport (no mention of blue ones sadly) it also mentions EU nationals convicted of rape staying on in The UK on the front page for good measure.

 

[pastafarian]

I see Airbus are pretty much saying today, the government needs to get real or 100,000 jobs mostly in Brexit towns are going elsewhere. I take that as staying in some sort of customs union

You must have seen the BBC report

Airbus has warned it could leave the UK if the country exits the European Union single market and customs union without a transition deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44570931

Are you thinking there wont be a withdrawal agreement and implementation period then? And that we will be leaving with no agreement........you seem to be in a minority even amongst remainers.

 

[pastafarian]

Not that I can see his/ her posts, but I assume pastawhatsisface will be on here telling us all it is fake news and all will be well as everyone in the world is battering down our doors to buy our....erm...whatever we make now

You assume wrong, but thats what you get for being a snowflake and ignoring people, you are unable to see the evidence presented to you..........got to love safe space echo chambers.
Take a leaf out of clamp`s book, he has people on ignore but reads their posts and replies to them anyway........its like Ignore for Dummies

 

[Lincoln Imp]

You must have seen the BBC report

Airbus has warned it could leave the UK if the country exits the European Union single market and customs union without a transition deal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44570931

Are you thinking there wont be a withdrawal agreement and implementation period then? And that we will be leaving with no agreement........you seem to be in a minority even amongst remainers.

The Times suggests that Airbus could run its U.K. operations down if we don't remain inside a customs union (rather than if there's no transition deal). Many Leavers on here believe that we should not remain in a customs union.