[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

'Same old story' indeed; and as for 'willfully ignoring', well I couldn't have expressed it better myself.

Out of interest how many times does the B of E or the numerous other organisations have to get predictions/forecasts horrendously wrong before you have some doubts about their assessments?

Perhaps we can just agree that uncertainty, as we transition out of the EU back to independent nation-state status, has some economic effect in the short term but it's silly to put specific numbers on this?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Out of interest how many times does the B of E or the numerous other organisations have to get predictions/forecasts horrendously wrong before you have some doubts about their assessments?

Perhaps we can just agree that uncertainty, as we transition out of the EU back to independent nation-state status, has some economic effect in the short term but it's silly to put specific numbers on this?

Maybe some, who have to work and are not pensioners for starters, are not willing to take this risk?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Out of interest how many times does the B of E or the numerous other organisations have to get predictions/forecasts horrendously wrong before you have some doubts about their assessments?

Perhaps we can just agree that uncertainty, as we transition out of the EU back to independent nation-state status, has some economic effect in the short term but it's silly to put specific numbers on this?

45.464% of the times................................

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Maybe some, who have to work and are not pensioners for starters, are not willing to take this risk?

From this thread and wider discourse, I would agree that some maybe even most remain voters put economic considerations/guesstimates above all other issues (sovereignty/self-determination, immigration). Safety first is understandable and the theoretical economic impact was the main issue that gave me pause for thought before casting my vote. But as you and others have admitted you are all for a European Superstate which is clearly the end destination for the EU project. In addition, the road to ever closer union has created the biggest economic and social cohesive threat to European stability in my view so this particular worker in his 40's voted to leave.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

45.464% of the times................................

All available evidence suggests you always believe what you read in the Guardian so I was expecting a lower number ..........................................................

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

From this thread and wider discourse, I would agree that some maybe even most remain voters put economic considerations/guesstimates above all other issues (sovereignty/self-determination, immigration). Safety first is understandable and the theoretical economic impact was the main issue that gave me pause for thought before casting my vote. But as you and others have admitted you are all for a European Superstate which is clearly the end destination for the EU project. In addition, the road to ever closer union has created the biggest economic and social cohesive threat to European stability in my view so this particular worker in his 40's voted to leave.

Interesting. If you look at some of the places with high leave numbers they also have high unemployment. I wonder if they did put economic reasons first? But not that the economy will flourish, more the economy will tank and reduce the risk of them having to actually find a job?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Interesting. If you look at some of the places with high leave numbers they also have high unemployment. I wonder if they did put economic reasons first? But not that the economy will flourish, more the economy will tank and reduce the risk of them having to actually find a job?

The UK has the lowest rate of unemployment on record. But I would say many feel left behind despite having a job and also probably feel the impact of unprecedented low skilled immigration more than other areas. I don't think any leave voter wanted the economy to tank.

 

[Butch Willykins]

This has really been done to death.WE CANNOT SIGN TRADE DEALS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES UNTIL WE LEAVE THE EU.(just in case you are internet deaf).
Here is a nice bit of optimism for you-the motor industry is not dead,despite 'expert' predictions.

View attachment 97131

Usually if JLR are doing well someone will weigh in and tell you they are Indian. The very same people will happily tell you they are British if the news is not so positive.

 

[vegster]

Thanks for rising to the challenge . I think the point isthat maybe we might need to look behind or beyond the data if we think it is dreadfully flawed (I would personally use the adjective 'imperfect'; not conclusive but highly suggestive.) So the big picture issue could be framed thus: what are your grounds for thinking that the UK economy will perform better outside of the EU than it would do within the EU? (With the supplementary question - and can you convincingly argue that these grounds are sufficiently robust given the projections of trade bodies, academic trade experts, former EU trade negotiators and ex-senior civil servants?

In the meantime, while you pick up you pen(s) to tackle this I shall offer in return some positives on leaving the EU. I do this in the vain hope that one or two Brexiteers might be similarly moved to
acknowledge that their case is not cast-iron:

1. I think it might help our fishing industry. (I actually typed 'fisting industry' which might have provoked some excitement in parts of Brighton and would for some be good enough grounds for leaving)

2. It gives us a chance to re-model our agricultural policy for the better

3. It frees us from some of the rulings of the ECJ which arguably (at least potentially) could be against our national interests

4. It saves us a few quid by not having to stage elections to the European parliament

5. It might in the long term make us less exposed to a collapse in the EU economic model

6. I'm not entirely comfortable with the uncontrolled movement of EU labour especially as it impacts in some parts of the UK

7. We do hand over a fair (or arguably unfair) amount of dosh

8. The EU does waste a proportion of the above

9. I'm not wholly comfortable with some of the current governments of EU states (eg the current Polish one); a generic drift to the right would bother me greatly

10. Brussels is a bubble and somewhat self-serving.

You see? It can be done. We don't have to sit in our respective trenches trading insults. Actually, I've even now convinced myself that I should have voted Leave...........

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

There will be zero chance of me eating any U.K. seafood once Britain has left the U.K. and not party to the high standards of the EU.

 

[jaghebby]

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44229606

The much heralded savings on leaving the EU may not materialize after all!

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

Says an EU spokesman. Whereas the UK fishing industry (what do they know) say it's time for change/take back control...

 

[ManOfSussex]

I can speak with some confidence on the subject of fishing. Don't expect Brexit to lead to any sort of change to the fishing industry or the fishable biomass.

Firstly we will still have to negotiate quota's with Europe as species migrate rather than stay in one location and we would need to trade quota's with our near geographic neighbours.

Secondly, much of the catch in British waters is exported anyway as there is no home market for many species and fishermen can get a better price abroad. This might well change when we exit if our fish and shellfish have to undergo thorough inspection upon entering Europe.

Finally and more importantly, the British fishing fleet is excellent at developing new electronic sounding and net technology in order to maximise returns. There will be no moratorium on species or habitats in order to let stocks recover and be fished sustainably, greed precludes thinking of tomorrow. It should also be remembered how we fished North Sea Cod and Herring stocks til they were unsustainable, likewise the Cornish Pilchard stocks 100 odd years ago. These stocks are only now returning to a level where we can fish them sustainably, leaving Europe will mean we have to be tougher on our own quota's than we were IN Europe so expect no fish Goldrush.

Post Brext I don't see there being any change or benefits in regards to the quota allocation by Defra that is to the expense of the under 10 metre fleet and with the landing obligation coming in, access to EU ports and markets to sell fish that there is no UK market for is more important than ever. Then there's the small matter of things like a £200m a year industry in The Falklands Islands that is largely reliant on the EU market too and 5,000 jobs on the Humber reliant on imported fish processing plants having the same access to now with The EU.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

Brexit: Technology-based customs system 'could cost £20bn'?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44229606

The much heralded savings on leaving the EU may not materialize after all!

Those figures are VERY vague - so 'possibly' between £17bn and £20bn .... pretty large difference there. Then each declaration costing between £20 and £55 - the upper guess being nearly THREE times the cost of the lower guess. Sounds like HMRC are trying to be as accurate as they are with tax demands !

 

[astralavi]

From this thread and wider discourse, I would agree that some maybe even most remain voters put economic considerations/guesstimates above all other issues (sovereignty/self-determination, immigration). Safety first is understandable and the theoretical economic impact was the main issue that gave me pause for thought before casting my vote. But as you and others have admitted you are all for a European Superstate which is clearly the end destination for the EU project. In addition, the road to ever closer union has created the biggest economic and social cohesive threat to European stability in my view so this particular worker in his 40's voted to leave.

Just curious if you would be happy/satisfied with a soft brexit i.e stay in single market and customs union?

As a remainer, I would

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Just curious if you would be happy overall with soft brexit i.e stay in single currency and customs union?

As a remainer I would

....................

 

[astralavi]

....................

a no then?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

a no then?

Sorry, I thought you were winding me up unaware of my frequently stated pov.

No, staying in the internal EU market and customs union, under ECJ jurisdiction/freedom of movement/regulatory subservience in no way recognises the biggest democratic decision in Uk history the central theme being 'taking back control'.

 

[Two Professors]

Just curious if you would be happy/satisfied with a soft brexit i.e stay in single currency and customs union?

As a remainer, I would

When did we join the single currency?Are you Simster's third account?

 

[daveinprague]

I hope, I believe. Maybe, possibly, what could happen is, perhaps, experts are always wrong...is a fabulous plan for the countries future