[Politics] Brexit

[Herr Tubthumper]

I would prefer if you backed off your abuse, how can you conclude that the Brexit vote has impacted negatively when you seem unable to offer your pre referendum opinion of what you expected to happen or a view on what precisely our economy is failing at currently, how else can you conclude whether it has outperformed expectations or not ?

What point are you trying to make? This sentence is all over the place.

 

[BigGully]

What point are you trying to make? This sentence is all over the place.

Is that todays Guardian headline ??

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Is that todays Guardian headline ??

I’ve only read the sports section today, and the headline is: Harry Kane gets armband and says “England can rule world” :rollseyes:

I guess it’s World Cup time again.

And I’ll overlook your grammatical error.

 

[BigGully]

I’ve only read the sports section today, and the headline is: Harry Kane gets armband and says “England can rule world” :rollseyes:

I guess it’s World Cup time again.

And I’ll overlook your grammatical error.

Wow nearly all your own words, well done ...................

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Wow nearly all your own words, well done ...................

I really don’t think you, of all people, should be lecturing anyone about words

 

[BigGully]

I really don’t think you, of all people, should be lecturing anyone about words

I really dont think you, of all people should be lecturing anyone about absolutely anything ...................

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I really dont think you, of all people should be lecturing anyone about absolutely anything ...................

Are you hung over? Big session last night?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I really dont think you, of all people should be lecturing anyone about absolutely anything ...................

At the very least I can certainly lecture you on grammar. Do you agree?

 

[BigGully]

At the very least I can certainly lecture you on grammar. Do you agree?

I cannot think of a more boring interaction than with you, god knows what other posters feel about our latest posts, you carry on ..........................

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I cannot think of a more boring interaction than with you,

Then why have you replied to every single one of my replies to you this morning? If I’m boring then just stop. Go on, do it now.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

I can see why Brexiteers get fed up when they see a replay of Project Fear (how I detest that term). But there is a certain ostrich-like burying of the head sometimes and a reflexive damning of every forecast from 'experts' because of lapses and what maybe is simply (simplistically in my view) perceived as an Establishment/Expert/London elite plot

It's a bit like Michael Fish making a cock-up with the 1987 hurricane forecast. Yes he got it wrong. But has that stopped us looking at weather forecasts ever since? And the problem is that there is very little data coming back 'over the net' from the Brexiteer camp; the grim projections are usually based on some sort of known methodology (OK - open to interpretation, sometimes flawed) but what is there from the other side? We've had a bit of free-market, let's get 'rid of all tariffs' stuff from Patrick Minford (the human form of Rees-Mogg) which is hopelessly unrealistic even if a great theory (which is dubious).

So: still no coherent policy framework, no consensus about what a 'red, white and blue Brexit' looks like, not one single deal set-up yet alone signed - just a bloody great leap off Beachy Head, not known for its soft landing propensity.

Honestly lads: it isn't looking good. It might still be worthwhile for all sorts of valid (possibly longer term) reasons but it is very hard to see beyond the chaos and highly probable economic carnage right now.

I take no pleasure in this: I'm in the market for optimism even if it is semi-deranged. Just give us some...........................

 

[Simster]

It's a bit like Michael Fish making a cock-up with the 1987 hurricane forecast. Yes he got it wrong. But has that stopped us looking at weather forecasts ever since? And the problem is that there is very little data coming back 'over the net' from the Brexiteer camp; the grim projections are usually based on some sort of known methodology (OK - open to interpretation, sometimes flawed) but what is there from the other side?

The best they can do is sneer at the fact that the decline isn't as bad as predicted.

See BigGully's and Two Prof's posts yesterday for details. Apparently everything is OK because the current grim situation isn't as grim as predicted by remainers.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Bit of an insult to weather forecasters. The B of E predicted a technical recession with no growth in second half of 2016 (wrong), they predicted 0.8% growth in 2017 ( wrong) they then said we would have plus two percent growth (wrong), it said 3 year growth would be 1% higher than they previuosly thought (?). Carney said Brexit was the biggest risk to Uk financial stability then he said it wasn't.

It's the same old story, people lap up/regurgitate stories that only support their pov while removing any caveats and willfully ignore the woeful track record.

 

[BigGully]

I can see why Brexiteers get fed up when they see a replay of Project Fear (how I detest that term). But there is a certain ostrich-like burying of the head sometimes and a reflexive damning of every forecast from 'experts' because of lapses and what maybe is simply (simplistically in my view) perceived as an Establishment/Expert/London elite plot

It's a bit like Michael Fish making a cock-up with the 1987 hurricane forecast. Yes he got it wrong. But has that stopped us looking at weather forecasts ever since? And the problem is that there is very little data coming back 'over the net' from the Brexiteer camp; the grim projections are usually based on some sort of known methodology (OK - open to interpretation, sometimes flawed) but what is there from the other side? We've had a bit of free-market, let's get 'rid of all tariffs' stuff from Patrick Minford (the human form of Rees-Mogg) which is hopelessly unrealistic even if a great theory (which is dubious).

So: still no coherent policy framework, no consensus about what a 'red, white and blue Brexit' looks like, not one single deal set-up yet alone signed - just a bloody great leap off Beachy Head, not known for its soft landing propensity.

Honestly lads: it isn't looking good. It might still be worthwhile for all sorts of valid (possibly longer term) reasons but it is very hard to see beyond the chaos and highly probable economic carnage right now.

I take no pleasure in this: I'm in the market for optimism even if it is semi-deranged. Just give us some...........................

Remainers are just as guilty to hang onto another negative Brexit projection no matter who makes it even when recent economic performance has outperformed the most optimistic anti Brexit forecast pre and post the referendum yet they are still using projections from the same failed projectionists to exonerate their own previous and future opinion.

Why would you expect me for sake of argument that didn't think that apart from the odd shudder from the markets a Brexit vote would bring this country to its economic knees should now decide that forecasting is something accurate and a worthwhile consideration, surely that would be daft and similarly why would you/others still think forecasts are valid especially when in some cases they are politically driven and historically flawed.

It really isn't because I am thick, deluded or racist but because I have followed the markets for 35 years, presented my own business plans and projections to banks with varying degrees of success, watched as the same europhile politicians and bankers told me that the UK must in its own interests join the euro, listened to John Major espouse the continuing virtues of house ownership before some months later interest rates rose to 15% and there was a housing crash and again listen to Osborne and Carney tell me of the £4300.00 loss to my family and a likely recession, they weren't a few 0.1% points away they were a million miles away, one size fits all projections modelled with unknown assumptions are good headlines but worthless data.

It's not blind optimism it's just experience.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Remainers are just as guilty to hang onto another negative Brexit projection no matter who makes it even when recent economic performance has outperformed the most optimistic anti Brexit forecast pre and post the referendum yet they are still using projections from the same failed projectionists to exonerate their own previous and future opinion.

Why would you expect me for sake of argument that didn't think that apart from the odd shudder from the markets a Brexit vote would bring this country to its economic knees should now decide that forecasting is something accurate and a worthwhile consideration, surely that would be daft and similarly why would you/others still think forecasts are valid especially when in some cases they are politically driven and historically flawed.

It really isn't because I am thick, deluded or racist but because I have followed the markets for 35 years, presented my own business plans and projections to banks with varying degrees of success, watched as the same europhile politicians and bankers told me that the UK must in its own interests join the euro, listened to John Major espouse the continuing virtues of house buying before some months later interest rates rose to 15% and there was a housing crash and again listen to Osborne and Carney tell me of the £4300.00 loss to my family and a likely recession, they weren't a few 0.1% points away they were a million miles away, one size fits all projections modelled with unknown assumptions are good headlines but worthless data.

It's not blind optimism it's just experience.

Thanks for the reply. But with respect:

a) please don't think that I've accused you of being thick or racist (note I exclude deluded). I think that your analysis is rather weak (as you do mine) and I don't entirely follow the first sentence of your 2nd paragraph but I get your drift - but that's just a disagreement, not name-calling

b) if you are continuing to rubbish forecasts that's fine by me and does kind of support what I was saying; but at least you've told us why you don't believe them which is enlightening;

c) but what I really wanted was some grounds for optimism. I'm afraid you are bit trapped here: by in effect dismissing all forecasting you cannot yourself forecast. So where does that leave us? I think we are back to jumping off Beachy Head? And a lack of anything positive does rather leave a vacuum into which 'fake news', politically inspired &warped forecasts, dodgy data and nasty negative nay-sayers will tend to occupy.

I've got a sneaking suspicion that we are not really going to agree. I'm sure there are some folk out there who genuinely voted 'leave' for all sorts of valid reasons but who now think that maybe, just maybe it's not quite turning out how they expected in a Not Very Good sort of way. We just don't tend to meet up with them on this thread and I am very naïve to ever think that we might.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Bit of an insult to weather forecasters. The B of E predicted a technical recession with no growth in second half of 2016 (wrong), they predicted 0.8% growth in 2017 ( wrong) they then said we would have plus two percent growth (wrong), it said 3 year growth would be 1% higher than they previuosly thought (?). Carney said Brexit was the biggest risk to Uk financial stability then he said it wasn't.

It's the same old story, people lap up/regurgitate stories that only support their pov while removing any caveats and willfully ignore the woeful track record.

'Same old story' indeed; and as for 'willfully ignoring', well I couldn't have expressed it better myself.

 

[Two Professors]

I can see why Brexiteers get fed up when they see a replay of Project Fear (how I detest that term). But there is a certain ostrich-like burying of the head sometimes and a reflexive damning of every forecast from 'experts' because of lapses and what maybe is simply (simplistically in my view) perceived as an Establishment/Expert/London elite plot

It's a bit like Michael Fish making a cock-up with the 1987 hurricane forecast. Yes he got it wrong. But has that stopped us looking at weather forecasts ever since? And the problem is that there is very little data coming back 'over the net' from the Brexiteer camp; the grim projections are usually based on some sort of known methodology (OK - open to interpretation, sometimes flawed) but what is there from the other side? We've had a bit of free-market, let's get 'rid of all tariffs' stuff from Patrick Minford (the human form of Rees-Mogg) which is hopelessly unrealistic even if a great theory (which is dubious).

So: still no coherent policy framework, no consensus about what a 'red, white and blue Brexit' looks like, not one single deal set-up yet alone signed - just a bloody great leap off Beachy Head, not known for its soft landing propensity.

Honestly lads: it isn't looking good. It might still be worthwhile for all sorts of valid (possibly longer term) reasons but it is very hard to see beyond the chaos and highly probable economic carnage right now.

I take no pleasure in this: I'm in the market for optimism even if it is semi-deranged. Just give us some...........................

This has really been done to death.WE CANNOT SIGN TRADE DEALS WITH OTHER COUNTRIES UNTIL WE LEAVE THE EU.(just in case you are internet deaf).
Here is a nice bit of optimism for you-the motor industry is not dead,despite 'expert' predictions.

 

[Two Professors]

I can see why Brexiteers get fed up when they see a replay of Project Fear (how I detest that term). But there is a certain ostrich-like burying of the head sometimes and a reflexive damning of every forecast from 'experts' because of lapses and what maybe is simply (simplistically in my view) perceived as an Establishment/Expert/London elite plot

It's a bit like Michael Fish making a cock-up with the 1987 hurricane forecast. Yes he got it wrong. But has that stopped us looking at weather forecasts ever since? And the problem is that there is very little data coming back 'over the net' from the Brexiteer camp; the grim projections are usually based on some sort of known methodology (OK - open to interpretation, sometimes flawed) but what is there from the other side? We've had a bit of free-market, let's get 'rid of all tariffs' stuff from Patrick Minford (the human form of Rees-Mogg) which is hopelessly unrealistic even if a great theory (which is dubious).

So: still no coherent policy framework, no consensus about what a 'red, white and blue Brexit' looks like, not one single deal set-up yet alone signed - just a bloody great leap off Beachy Head, not known for its soft landing propensity.

Honestly lads: it isn't looking good. It might still be worthwhile for all sorts of valid (possibly longer term) reasons but it is very hard to see beyond the chaos and highly probable economic carnage right now.

I take no pleasure in this: I'm in the market for optimism even if it is semi-deranged. Just give us some...........................

If the 'experts' cannot even got month on month inflation figures even vaguely right,why do you think we should be in awe of their predictions?

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

If the 'experts' cannot even got month on month inflation figures even vaguely right,why do you think we should be in awe of their predictions?

View attachment 97134

Thanks for rising to the challenge . I think the point isthat maybe we might need to look behind or beyond the data if we think it is dreadfully flawed (I would personally use the adjective 'imperfect'; not conclusive but highly suggestive.) So the big picture issue could be framed thus: what are your grounds for thinking that the UK economy will perform better outside of the EU than it would do within the EU? (With the supplementary question - and can you convincingly argue that these grounds are sufficiently robust given the projections of trade bodies, academic trade experts, former EU trade negotiators and ex-senior civil servants?

In the meantime, while you pick up you pen(s) to tackle this I shall offer in return some positives on leaving the EU. I do this in the vain hope that one or two Brexiteers might be similarly moved to
acknowledge that their case is not cast-iron:

1. I think it might help our fishing industry. (I actually typed 'fisting industry' which might have provoked some excitement in parts of Brighton and would for some be good enough grounds for leaving)

2. It gives us a chance to re-model our agricultural policy for the better

3. It frees us from some of the rulings of the ECJ which arguably (at least potentially) could be against our national interests

4. It saves us a few quid by not having to stage elections to the European parliament

5. It might in the long term make us less exposed to a collapse in the EU economic model

6. I'm not entirely comfortable with the uncontrolled movement of EU labour especially as it impacts in some parts of the UK

7. We do hand over a fair (or arguably unfair) amount of dosh

8. The EU does waste a proportion of the above

9. I'm not wholly comfortable with some of the current governments of EU states (eg the current Polish one); a generic drift to the right would bother me greatly

10. Brussels is a bubble and somewhat self-serving.

You see? It can be done. We don't have to sit in our respective trenches trading insults. Actually, I've even now convinced myself that I should have voted Leave...........

 

[Two Professors]

Thanks for rising to the challenge . I think the point isthat maybe we might need to look behind or beyond the data if we think it is dreadfully flawed (I would personally use the adjective 'imperfect'; not conclusive but highly suggestive.) So the big picture issue could be framed thus: what are your grounds for thinking that the UK economy will perform better outside of the EU than it would do within the EU? (With the supplementary question - and can you convincingly argue that these grounds are sufficiently robust given the projections of trade bodies, academic trade experts, former EU trade negotiators and ex-senior civil servants?

In the meantime, while you pick up you pen(s) to tackle this I shall offer in return some positives on leaving the EU. I do this in the vain hope that one or two Brexiteers might be similarly moved to
acknowledge that their case is not cast-iron:

1. I think it might help our fishing industry. (I actually typed 'fisting industry' which might have provoked some excitement in parts of Brighton and would for some be good enough grounds for leaving)

2. It gives us a chance to re-model our agricultural policy for the better

3. It frees us from some of the rulings of the ECJ which arguably (at least potentially) could be against our national interests

4. It saves us a few quid by not having to stage elections to the European parliament

5. It might in the long term make us less exposed to a collapse in the EU economic model

6. I'm not entirely comfortable with the uncontrolled movement of EU labour especially as it impacts in some parts of the UK

7. We do hand over a fair (or arguably unfair) amount of dosh

8. The EU does waste a proportion of the above

9. I'm not wholly comfortable with some of the current governments of EU states (eg the current Polish one); a generic drift to the right would bother me greatly

10. Brussels is a bubble and somewhat self-serving.

You see? It can be done. We don't have to sit in our respective trenches trading insults. Actually, I've even now convinced myself that I should have voted Leave...........

1.Think the fishing industry Might be better off,especially smaller ports.
2.Challenging times ahead for agriculture,but I think the major advances in automation and AI will help-lots of experiments with robot planters/weeders/harvesters going on round the Midlands.
3.Current legislation still needs to be signed into law,and hope there is future interaction,as not all their ideas are bad.
4.
5.Major upsets ahead for the Euro-think a two-tier currency inevitable now.
6.Just covers up how bad unemployment is in some parts of the EU,particularly youth unemployment.
7.True.
8.Large proportion!
9.Can see a possible break-away if Brussels reduces the hand-outs to the Eastern bloc countries,with Russia building a new Comintern.
10.Brussels could be vastly improved with a 20 kiloton tactical nuke.Only trouble is,it would look like Croydon!