[Politics] Brexit

[Herr Tubthumper]

Thanks for posting this: it is (as attributed you intend) thought-provoking. What would be really interesting would be to know how much of this non-EU trade is attribute to EU negotiated agreement with 3rd party nations? It would also be (even more) interesting to know what future similar ones will contribute to our export trade and whether we might have to sacrifice these as we leave the EU. I'm not sure anyone has the data.

That’s a slighty suspicious looking graph. It’s implying that over the past 15 years every fluctuation in export to the EU is picked up by an export of exactly the same % value to non-EU? I don’t believe that.

 

[larus]

That’s a slighty suspicious looking graph. It’s implying that over the past 15 years every fluctuation in export to the EU is picked up by an export of exactly the same % value to non-EU? I don’t believe that.

Haha, it’s percentage of trade. You are the weakest link - goodbye.

Unless you’re Diane Abbott of course, then you can get 110%.

 

[Westdene Seagull]

That’s a slighty suspicious looking graph. It’s implying that over the past 15 years every fluctuation in export to the EU is picked up by an export of exactly the same % value to non-EU? I don’t believe that.

Errr .... that's what happens with percentages when there only two options ! Doh.

Edit - beaten to it. And HT calls leavers thick

 

[Thunder Bolt]

But I wasn't talking about the ECJ was I !

There you are then. Crossed wires.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Haha, it’s percentage of trade. You are the weakest link - goodbye.

Unless you’re Diane Abbott of course, then you can get 110%.

Errr .... that's what happens with percentages when there only two options ! Doh.

Edit - beaten to it. And HT calls leavers thick

The third option is the trade is lost. If I’m exporting items to the EU, and they decide to stop buying, it could be the case no one else buys them up.

If you have 100 items exported and 50 go to the EU and 50 non-EU that’s 50% export for both. If the EU stop buying 20 and no one else picks them up that is then 30/100 and 50/100.

 

[larus]

The third option is the trade is lost. If I’m exporting items to the EU, and they decide to stop buying, it could be the case no one else buys them up.

If you have 100 items exported and 50 go to the EU and 50 non-EU that’s 50% export for both. If the EU stop buying 20 and no one else picks them up that is then 30/100 and 50/100.

Yeah right.

You said “That’s a slighty suspicious looking graph. It’s implying that over the past 15 years every fluctuation in export to the EU is picked up by an export of exactly the same % value to non-EU? I don’t believe that.”, now you suddenly say it’s about volume.

There’s nothing suspicious about the chart; it’s a split of 100%. SImple really. Well, for most people it is .

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Yeah right.

You said “That’s a slighty suspicious looking graph. It’s implying that over the past 15 years every fluctuation in export to the EU is picked up by an export of exactly the same % value to non-EU? I don’t believe that.”, now you suddenly say it’s about volume.

There’s nothing suspicious about the chart; it’s a split of 100%. SImple really. Well, for most people it is .

Where have I said it’s about volume. My initial reply which you quoted states %, my example is %. I’ll ask again, what if the trade is lost? Where does that go in the graph?
[MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], can you tell me?

 

[beorhthelm]

Where have I said it’s about volume. My initial reply which you quoted states %, my example is %. I’ll ask again, what if the trade is lost?

you on the beer early? the size of the cake gets smaller, the porportions of all cake slices still have to be 100%

 

[WATFORD zero]

So, 2 years on from the vote and 10 further pages on this Thread just today. We MUST be closer to knowing what we voted for now, Shirley ?

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

you on the beer early? the size of the cake gets smaller, the porportions of all cake slices still have to be 100%

No they don’t necessarily. The denominator is exports. If you make a 100 items and someone doesn’t buy them the denominator (for the %) is still 100.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

The Referendum were Vote Leave broke electoral law five times.
https://www.electoralcommission.org...ches-of-electoral-law-following-investigation

They've been fined a paltry £70K. A mere slap on the wrist.

Nobody should have broken the law, on either side. It's interesting that the remain campaign is also being investigated. The campaign was unfairly influenced by the government who thought it was okay to use public money to promote their cause. Nevertheless, I hated both sides of the campaign. It was awful and negative. Appaling in fact and is one of the reasons the aftermath has been so poisonous.

 

[larus]

Where have I said it’s about volume. My initial reply which you quoted states %, my example is %. I’ll ask again, what if the trade is lost? Where does that go in the graph?

[MENTION=1365]Westdene Seagull[/MENTION], can you tell me?

Are you being obtuse, are you drunk or are you really that stupid?

The graph shows the percentage of trade which goes to the EU/World. From that graph is is IMPOSSIBLE to determine volume. The question could equally be as valid as :
If the amount of trade was £50m to EU and £50m to RoW, then it changes to £60m EU and £90m RoW. It’s speculation. The graph is a split of 100% so it must always total 100%. But you though it looked SUSPICIOUS.

WTF is suspicious about it adding up to 100%?

 

[larus]

No they don’t.

I’ve always though that you were reasonable intelligent. However, I am now in serious doubt.

If something is split in 2, combine the 2 must be equal to 100%. It’s basic maths.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I’ve always though that you were reasonable intelligent. However, I am now in serious doubt.

If something is split in 2, combine the 2 must be equal to 100%. It’s basic maths.

I am obviously not making my point about the constant denominator and lost sales very well.

 

[larus]

I am obviously not making my point about the constant denominator and lost sales very well.

Serious question - have you been drinking? That’s all I can put it down to.

The UK has exports (the total amount varies year on year).

These go to 2 categories of destination. 1 - the EU. 2 - RoW.

The total must always equal 100%.

The graph shows the split of the 100%. There is no way you can deduce volumes from that graph. You may want to as it suits your Anti-Brexit position, but you can’t unless you know the export volume in GBP.

And that is a FACT.

 

[beorhthelm]

No they don’t necessarily. The denominator is exports. If you make a 100 items and someone doesn’t buy them the denominator (for the %) is still 100.

the graph wasnt showing items or nominal £ value, it was %. if you make 100 widgets and you dont export them, they arent counted in the exports. nice strong saison is it?

 

[portslade seagull]

You have no answer except to taunt.
Take note [MENTION=578]portslade seagull[/MENTION].

If you want to trawl the whole thread it's just as bad from the other side. Personally when posters retort to abuse their argument is lost

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

the graph wasnt showing items or nominal £ value, it was %. if you make 100 widgets and you dont export them, they arent counted in the exports. nice strong saison is it?

My argument is if you make 100 widgets for export and they can’t be sold back home and no one abroad wants them you can’t remove them from the denominator. Why would you?

 

[larus]

My argument is if you make 100 widgets for export and they can’t be sold back home and no one abroad wants them you can’t remove them from the denominator. Why would you?

But they DON’T get included in the exports if they haven’t been exported.

Exports is what we EXPORT.

The PERCENTAGE is based on the destination. It must equal 100%.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Nobody should have broken the law, on either side. It's interesting that the remain campaign is also being investigated. The campaign was unfairly influenced by the government who thought it was okay to use public money to promote their cause. Nevertheless, I hated both sides of the campaign. It was awful and negative. Appaling in fact and is one of the reasons the aftermath has been so poisonous.

I agree.