[Politics] Brexit

[JC Footy Genius]

Unless we rejoin after we leave. I think you are risking the situation where we return to the EU, but without the ability to be in, without ever closer union, as we have now.

Every treaty signed is another small or bigger step along the road.. but you know this.

 

[Baldseagull]

Every treaty signed is another small or bigger step along the road.. but you know this.

It is, but it is now in UK law that a referendum would be held to decide if we would sign up to any new treaty or treaty amendment, it is also the case that our current status allows us to go no further without risk of being excluded from anything we currently enjoy the benefits of. This will probably not be the case if we reapply for membership.

With the result so close, and the younger generations being more pro EU, rejoining has to be a likely event, if we leave now.

 

[Ernest]

Looks like the swivel eyed head bangers are going to go into meltdown today

 

[nigeyb]

Aye. Stephen Bush, always good at a simple analysis, has it thus....

Are the Brexit talks heading for a serious crisis? In Whitehall, ministers are nervously waiting to see what the European Union's proposed next steps are. Driving much of the anxiety is the Irish border.

The word of the moment around Westminster as far as the UK, the EU and what was agreed at the end of the first phase of talks in December is "fudge". But the truth is that what was agreed was not a fudge at all. The British government agreed that it would guarantee no return to physical infrastructure (or a "hard border" in other words) on the island of Ireland. There was an agreement that if any of the more absurd ideas floated by the shallower end of the Brexit elite - Zeppelins, blockchain, drones - are shown to work, they can be used in lieu of regulatory and customs alignment. But as that was always a fiction, the truth of what Theresa May agreed at the end of phase one was a sharply limited version of Brexit for the United Kingdom, as the internal politics of her own government prohibit any new barriers in the Irish Sea.

But now those guarantees are set to be written into law, with the EU27 expected to lay them out exactly later today, and the "fudge" (or rather, the perfectly clear position that some Leavers are pretending is fudge) will be over.

The simple trade-off is this: you can't have significant customs and regulatory divergence and maintain the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland as it is. You can create a bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland with a new set of barriers in the Irish Sea, you can have regulatory and customs alignment for the whole of the United Kingdom, or you have a hard border. That's it.

Some pro-Leave politicians have realised this trade-off which is one reason why Boris Johnson made the argument for a harder border than the current one in a private latter to Theresa May (Sky's Faisal Islam has got hold of a copy) at the end of the month.

What the Foreign Secretary recognises is that you cannot have "the benefits of Brexit" (parking for a moment whether you believe those benefits are illusory) and maintain the United Kingdom's current policy position towards Northern Ireland. Something has to give. It may be the British government's Brexit objectives, it may be the EU27's willingness to guarantee an open border come what may, or it could be any prospect of a deal at all.

 

[CHAPPERS]

[tweet]967080321475850240[/tweet]

 

[nicko31]

Aye. Stephen Bush, always good at a simple analysis, has it thus....

Are the Brexit talks heading for a serious crisis? In Whitehall, ministers are nervously waiting to see what the European Union's proposed next steps are. Driving much of the anxiety is the Irish border.

The word of the moment around Westminster as far as the UK, the EU and what was agreed at the end of the first phase of talks in December is "fudge". But the truth is that what was agreed was not a fudge at all. The British government agreed that it would guarantee no return to physical infrastructure (or a "hard border" in other words) on the island of Ireland. There was an agreement that if any of the more absurd ideas floated by the shallower end of the Brexit elite - Zeppelins, blockchain, drones - are shown to work, they can be used in lieu of regulatory and customs alignment. But as that was always a fiction, the truth of what Theresa May agreed at the end of phase one was a sharply limited version of Brexit for the United Kingdom, as the internal politics of her own government prohibit any new barriers in the Irish Sea.

But now those guarantees are set to be written into law, with the EU27 expected to lay them out exactly later today, and the "fudge" (or rather, the perfectly clear position that some Leavers are pretending is fudge) will be over.

The simple trade-off is this: you can't have significant customs and regulatory divergence and maintain the border between the United Kingdom and Ireland as it is. You can create a bespoke arrangement for Northern Ireland with a new set of barriers in the Irish Sea, you can have regulatory and customs alignment for the whole of the United Kingdom, or you have a hard border. That's it.

Some pro-Leave politicians have realised this trade-off which is one reason why Boris Johnson made the argument for a harder border than the current one in a private latter to Theresa May (Sky's Faisal Islam has got hold of a copy) at the end of the month.

What the Foreign Secretary recognises is that you cannot have "the benefits of Brexit" (parking for a moment whether you believe those benefits are illusory) and maintain the United Kingdom's current policy position towards Northern Ireland. Something has to give. It may be the British government's Brexit objectives, it may be the EU27's willingness to guarantee an open border come what may, or it could be any prospect of a deal at all.

Excellent post

The Tories have been kidding themselves since December, many just can't face reality and they will have to face it very soon. I also think most of Joe Public haven't a clue what is actually going on with Brexit, many are just bored of it and its hard to get the true facts from a lot of the press. Much of what is written is emotionally driven hogwash

Something inside me says May knows there is no solution but has to show 100% commitment to Brexit for the sake of party unity.

I may eat my words later, but I think remaining in the CU is the only way. Either that or we have a GE or 2nd EU Ref to try and settle it, though the later has its dangers. We will see

 

[JC Footy Genius]

It is, but it is now in UK law that a referendum would be held to decide if we would sign up to any new treaty or treaty amendment, it is also the case that our current status allows us to go no further without risk of being excluded from anything we currently enjoy the benefits of. This will probably not be the case if we reapply for membership.

With the result so close, and the younger generations being more pro EU, rejoining has to be a likely event, if we leave now.

Forgive me for being a tad cynical about that particular cast iron guarantee. Firstly it doesn't necessarily apply to every new treaty or amendment. Second, the government decides if any new treaty/amendment breaches the conditions needed to trigger a referendum. Third, we know the powers that be are quite good at circumventing referendum results/constructing treaties that manage to avoid democratic public scrutiny (see Lisbon Treaty). Finally, it can be removed at any time. Leaving the EU was, is the only way to guarantee an end to the UK participating in ever closer union.

As you have already pointed out rejoining at some point in the future = no rebates, no exemptions, and even less of a say plus of course dumping the pound for the Euro entry criteria. The young will mature and grow wiser. Likely .... mmmmmm.

 

[Ernest]

Excellent post

The Tories have been kidding themselves since December, many just can't face reality and they will have to face it very soon. I also think most of Joe Public haven't a clue what is actually going on with Brexit, many are just bored of it and its hard to get the true facts from a lot of the press. Much of what is written is emotionally driven hogwash

Something inside me says May knows there is no solution but has to show 100% commitment to Brexit for the sake of party unity.

I may eat my words later, but I think remaining in the CU is the only way. Either that or we have a GE or 2nd EU Ref to try and settle it, though the later has its dangers. We will see

Party unity and clinging onto power more important to the Tories than what is best for the country

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I see Labours cake and eat it, fantasy solution hasn't gone down well in their working-class heartlands.

“If this is what he’s trying to do, it’s opportunistic rather than principled. He may be principled in many ways, but he’s trying to take government by dividing the Tory party and splitting their vote. It’s fairly cynical.”

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyns-brexit-plan-hasnt-12093689

Spot on. Putting cynical party advantage before a principled position or the national interest.

 

[Ernest]

Spot on. Putting cynical party advantage before a principled position or the national interest.

At least you're now speaking sense, glad to see you have seen what the Tories are doing

 

[nicko31]

Putting cynical party advantage before a principled position or the national interest.

Of course the Tories wouldn't dream of such a thing

 

[JC Footy Genius]

At least you're now speaking sense, glad to see you have seen what the Tories are doing

Both parties are guilty of this to some degree as I'm sure you would agree .. my fellow Brexiteer.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Looks like the swivel eyed head bangers are going to go into meltdown today

As ever: the voice of reason!

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Party unity and clinging onto power more important to the Tories than what is best for the country

And that's the reason Cameron called the referendum in the first place. Great Britain seems to be regarded as a facilitating department of Central Office.

 

[Titanic]

European Commission Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/bre...nts-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

 

[ManOfSussex]

The EU27's draft legal text has been published - https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/draft_withdrawal_agreement.pdf

119 pages worth, but I'm sure whatever's in there will be an outrage to the swivel eyed, red trouser, wax jacket wearing, freakoids among us.

 

[ManOfSussex]

[tweet]968808297477353472[/tweet]

https://www.facebook.com/pestonitv/

Revealed: Rudd's plan for EU migrants who arrive after 2019

The home secretary Amber Rudd wants to allow EU citizens who arrive in the UK during the two-year Brexit implementation or transition period a permanent right to stay - but with fewer rights to bring family members here than EU citizens already living here.

The home secretary's proposal is contained in a letter seen by ITV News she has written to senior government ministers who are members of the Brexit "war cabinet", or EU Exit and Trade (Strategy and Negotiations) Committee.

"EU citizens and their family members who arrived during [the implementation period]...will be able to stay on and ultimately settle under UK law", she writes.

But she also rejects the demand of the rest of the EU that these migrants' future rights to bring family members to the UK should be superior to those of British citizens.

And Rudd also rejects the EU demand that there should be any role for the European Court of Justice in determining the rights of these migrants who arrive during transition or implementation.

The home secretary's proposal will simultaneously anger EU negotiators, led by Michel Barnier, who argue that EU citizens arriving during the implementation period should have identical rights to those who arrive before Brexit day, 29 March 2019.

And it will also infuriate Brexit-loving Tory MPs and ministers who do not believe EU citizens arriving here after 29 March 2019 should have a permanent right to stay.

The disclosure of the letter to ITV News is just the latest manifestation of the civil war in cabinet over the terms of our Brexit should be.

 

[Titanic]

Corbyn's favourite attack dog, Barry Gardiner, currently being ripped a new one over the Labour 'a customs union' nonsense by Andrew Neil on The Daily Politics.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Corbyn's favourite attack dog, Barry Gardner, currently being ripped a new one over the Labour 'a customs union' nonsense by Andrew Neil on The Daily Politics.

I doubt you'd know how to spell Barry Gardiner though.

 

[mikeyjh]

[tweet]967080321475850240[/tweet]

Cloud cuckoo land - Who was the last one to say a deal would be 'the easiest ever'??