[Politics] Brexit

[beorhthelm]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/no-deal-brexit-could-cost-140-billion-2017-12?r=US&IR=T

Here we go. Report from the Rand Corporation (USA based/generally respected think-tank, so please don't brand as 'Project Fear'). Most would read this as a pretty grim projection for our post-Brexit prospects but a few Brexiteers might feast on the morsels of optimism herein?

you dont want to brand it project fear, however look how its reported, for example by BBC headline "Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout". if you've been following projections you'd know that this report's worse case is lower than the Treasury's worse case, so fears aren't growing they are receding.

 

[Blackadder]

And the fallout of Brexit continues to bite. But don't worry......we'll be fine.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42320052

Pensioners won't worry about inflation. They have their triple-lock pensions.

 

[Blackadder]

Even the right-wing Brexit backing press are reporting things like this now - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...obs-brexit-fifth-firms-flag-relocation-plans/

The press will subtlety* change track when it suits.

*This word may not apply to The Sun.

 

[Simster]

you dont want to brand it project fear, however look how its reported, for example by BBC headline "Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout". if you've been following projections you'd know that this report's worse case is lower than the Treasury's worse case, so fears aren't growing they are receding.

That is a report on the findings of a right wing US/UK think tank, and it concludes that Brexit is not going to be a positive thing. I think with that in mind, the BBC are entitled to headline it as they did without being accused of empowering "project fear".

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

you dont want to brand it project fear, however look how its reported, for example by BBC headline "Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout". if you've been following projections you'd know that this report's worse case is lower than the Treasury's worse case, so fears aren't growing they are receding.

Good: as predicted you found a morsel of optimism to feast on. These reports are the gift that keep on giving.

 

[beorhthelm]

That is a report on the findings of a right wing US/UK think tank, and it concludes that Brexit is not going to be a positive thing. I think with that in mind, the BBC are entitled to headline it as they did without being accused of empowering "project fear".

i'll accuse them of branding this project fear because they chose a headline thats both emotive and technically incorrect, in contrast to the factual Business Insider headline.

 

[beorhthelm]

Good: as predicted you found a morsel of optimism to feast on. These reports are the gift that keep on giving.

that wasn't the point i was making (its the BBC's branding, not mine). however if every year a report shaves 1% off the worse case, thats reason to be optimistic. by early-20's its going to positive for GDP at this rate

and if you're for optimism, the report gives a best case scenario of increasing GDP 2.2% in the ten years. so a headline "Brexit leads to increased growth" could have been written by a sub-editor so inclined.

 

[Berty23]

They need us more....

According to the report, a WTO outcome would "likely move the UK further from EU standards and over time significantly increase non-tariff barriers, harming the ability of UK businesses to sell goods and services to EU countries."

This would be particularly problematic, it said, since the service sector, which includes financial and banking, dominates the UK economy and contributes to around 80% of GDP. Although the EU would also lose out under the WTO scenario, the report said, the effect would be "relatively minor."

 

[nicko31]

"Number 10 said it was accepting the amendment in the name of Conservative backbencher Charles Walker calling for a special "sifting committee" to be set up to scrutinise any proposed changes to returning laws.

The Prime Minister's spokesman said: "We have said from the outset that we will look at the amendments and where we consider that improvements can be made to the legislation, we will respond to them."

Seems like a very measured and sensible response to concerns expressed by MPs. Nice work.

Do you work for their press office?

 

[5ways]

i'll accuse them of branding this project fear because they chose a headline thats both emotive and technically incorrect, in contrast to the factual Business Insider headline.

"Leaving the EU with no deal and operating under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules would lead to the greatest economic loss for the UK, reducing GDP by nearly 5 per cent, or $140 billion, 10 years after Brexit, compared with EU membership ...

Other trade scenarios could be better for the UK than WTO rules but still lead to economic losses compared with EU membership. These include ‘hard Brexit’ scenarios, such as a UK-EU free trade agreement (net UK GDP decline of 1.9 per cent 10 years after Brexit), UK-US free trade agreement (2.5 per cent decline) or UK-EU transitional zero-tariff agreement (2.1 per cent decline), and ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios, such as the Norway option (1.7 per cent decline), Switzerland option (2.4 per cent decline) or remaining part of the Customs Union (1.8 per cent decline)."

Honestly how much pain are people willing to suffer. Can anyone think of a more pointless expenditure in time, money, reputation and opportunity loss in British history. Please consider those who will be at maximum earning power in the 2020s-2030s and the awful Brexit burden that they will have to pay for.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

that wasn't the point i was making (its the BBC's branding, not mine). however if every year a report shaves 1% off the worse case, thats reason to be optimistic. by early-20's its going to positive for GDP at this rate

and if you're for optimism, the report gives a best case scenario of increasing GDP 2.2% in the ten years. so a headline "Brexit leads to increased growth" could have been written by a sub-editor so inclined.

Love it! Can I nominate you for that sub-editor's job? (The word 'panglossian' might just apply here; but I'm all for being cheered up on a cold December day.)

 

[vegster]

Pensioners won't worry about inflation. They have their triple-lock pensions.

Post Brexit, Pensioners might well be our biggest export.

 

[WATFORD zero]

that wasn't the point i was making (its the BBC's branding, not mine). however if every year a report shaves 1% off the worse case, thats reason to be optimistic. by early-20's its going to positive for GDP at this rate

and if you're for optimism, the report gives a best case scenario of increasing GDP 2.2% in the ten years. so a headline "Brexit leads to increased growth" could have been written by a sub-editor so inclined.

Last Friday, in a state of panic, our government went for the softest of soft Brexits and gave up UK border controls and all concessions on EU directives and regulations that our governments have negotiated over the last 45 years.

And your major concern, is the BBC 'spinning' a headline. Really ?

 

[Trufflehound]

Post Brexit, Pensioners might well be our biggest export.

Soylent Green?

 

[Baldseagull]

that wasn't the point i was making (its the BBC's branding, not mine). however if every year a report shaves 1% off the worse case, thats reason to be optimistic. by early-20's its going to positive for GDP at this rate

and if you're for optimism, the report gives a best case scenario of increasing GDP 2.2% in the ten years. so a headline "Brexit leads to increased growth" could have been written by a sub-editor so inclined.

I dont want to get too into this, but the headline says "Fears grow across the Atlantic ove, Brexit Fallout". This report assesses how various Brexit outcomes would affect the US, and includes the impact to the UK. You would have to find a more pessimistic American report to compare it to, in order to refute it, the Treasury report is obviously from this side of the Atlantic, and does not include an assessment of how things could affect the US.
The best case scenario in the report, is one of a trade deal that includes the US/UK/EU, which would seem to me to be unlikely in the extreme, even if Trump fell off the perch.

 

[Giraffe]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42315280

I struggle to keep up with this thread.

But assuming some of you have been posting about this report. What a load of BBC biased nonsense. The headline is totally deceiving.

"Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout"

The reality is the report actually says that even with no deal the country will only be 4.9% poorer by 2029.

Then says:

Other trade scenarios could be better for the UK than WTO rules but still lead to economic losses compared with EU membership. These include ‘hard Brexit’ scenarios, such as a UK-EU free trade agreement (net UK GDP decline of 1.9 per cent 10 years after Brexit), UK-US free trade agreement (2.5 per cent decline) or UK-EU transitional zero-tariff agreement (2.1 per cent decline), and ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios, such as the Norway option (1.7 per cent decline), Switzerland option (2.4 per cent decline) or remaining part of the Customs Union (1.8 per cent decline)."

The headline could actually have said, "American think tank predicts little problem for UK post Brexit!"

Who at the BBC is accountable for this kind of scaremongering nonsense?

 

[5ways]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42315280

I struggle to keep up with this thread.

But assuming some of you have been posting about this report. What a load of BBC biased nonsense. The headline is totally deceiving.

"Fears grow across the Atlantic over Brexit fallout"

The reality is the report actually says that even with no deal the country will only be 4.9% poorer by 2029.

Then says:

Other trade scenarios could be better for the UK than WTO rules but still lead to economic losses compared with EU membership. These include ‘hard Brexit’ scenarios, such as a UK-EU free trade agreement (net UK GDP decline of 1.9 per cent 10 years after Brexit), UK-US free trade agreement (2.5 per cent decline) or UK-EU transitional zero-tariff agreement (2.1 per cent decline), and ‘soft Brexit’ scenarios, such as the Norway option (1.7 per cent decline), Switzerland option (2.4 per cent decline) or remaining part of the Customs Union (1.8 per cent decline)."

The headline could actually have said, "American think tank predicts little problem for UK post Brexit!"

 

[beorhthelm]

funny how exactly the same thing can be read two completely different ways, depending on your view.

 

[jaghebby]

I think that is just typical of brexiteers the economic pain will only be small so that's okay then! These sentiments just beggar belief in their sanity, rational and pragmatic decision making processes!

 

[WATFORD zero]

funny how exactly the same thing can be read two completely different ways, depending on your view.

How do you read "No borders and alignment with all EU Directives and Regulations" ?