[Politics] Brexit

[Baldseagull]

As most of it has come from a large increase in self-employed contributions,it rather gives the lie to those dribbling idiots (c.LIMP) who said the new start-ups scheme was Tory lies.

You have made an asumption. the boost has come from self assessed tax, not necessarily self employed people, but people who have tax to pay outside the scope of PAYE. This could be Capital Gains driven, if for instance there was some political uncertainty, driving people to liquidate assets they have held for some time, so they can leave the UK and take their cash with them, if they have to, or are forced to.

 

[Baldseagull]

Do you subscribe to the Telegraph or the Spectator? Agree about the echo chamber point which is why so many people were shocked by the result, 'but all my friends/family voted Remain'. Perhaps if they varied their social circle a bit more or accessed sources other than the Guardian, Independent , FT etc they might have a better understanding of alternative opinions and be more accepting of the result. Agree again about people admitting they were wrong. Still waiting for the numerous Project Fear merchants to admit as much .. instead they seem intent on doubling down.

I have a wide social circle, most of the people who I know that take an interest in politics voted remain though, the people in my social circle that voted Leave don't tend to think or talk about politics much, so it was not discussed to the same extent.

 

[5ways]

Triggered! Of course you were just suggesting the Economist subscription for accessing data that is freely available ....



The forecast/report was June 28, 2016, five days after the referendum result. Remainers hadn't made up the term Hard Brexit yet (still in shock). As for immediate, the same report mentions triggering article Article 50 at the end of 2016 they would know that two years of negotiation follow. Can I assume you still have a high regard for all these expert publications and organisations predictive powers?

Perhaps I should give up on experts and get my ideas from the side of buses.

 

[ManOfSussex]

The lead news item on Sky News today - http://news.sky.com/story/uk-air-traffic-faces-slump-without-brexit-deal-airports-warn-11000318

Obviously an early deal on aviation is therefore needed and will probably happen, so it'll probably all be okay and with Chris Grayling at the helm at The DfT there's no reason to think that isn't possible and everything will be fine. Probably.

 

[Baldseagull]

There's a lot of bed wetting about what the circa 1% we send to Europe (which actually has increased by 25% because our currency has crashed), much of this will need to be spent again when we leave, and re-invent the wheel.

To put it in perspective we spend 20 times that on pensions that desperately need to be reformed, it won't happen in this zombie parliament

You are wrong mate, most of the old people voted leave, not for their own benefit, no they did it for their Grandchildren. That's why Theresa May easily increased her majority when she included tackling the triple lock issue in her manifesto, and perhaps taking a bit away from pensioners, for the benefit of the working age and young people.

 

[Berty23]

Do you subscribe to the Telegraph or the Spectator? Agree about the echo chamber point which is why so many people were shocked by the result, 'but all my friends/family voted Remain'. Perhaps if they varied their social circle a bit more or accessed sources other than the Guardian, Independent , FT etc they might have a better understanding of alternative opinions and be more accepting of the result. Agree again about people admitting they were wrong. Still waiting for the numerous Project Fear merchants to admit as much .. instead they seem intent on doubling down.

I am a researcher so I read loads of all sorts of evidence and deal with numerous academics across the spectrum so yes I do pick up different arguments. In fact I have given several presentations on the difference between perception and reality and why this matters. For example the average guess by britains for proportion of population that was Muslim in 2011 census is 20% and the reality is 5% whereas the guess for Christian is 39% whereas the figure is 60%. The general public think Christians outweigh Muslims by less than 2:1 when in reality it is 12:1. I could list loads of examples and this is why referendums are a bad idea - it is impossible for us all to know everything.

Living in bubbles, confirmation bias etc it is all there. Interesting that an ex ultra conservative republican who denied all to do with climate change because of al gore went and spoke to a marine conservationist in Australia who, like him, was a devoted Christian and explained how he is working to inform people about global warming to do god's work that he changed his mind. He went back to congress and changed his tune on global warming and what happened? He lost his seat. Why? Because republican supporters voted for someone else in the primaries who said al gore was talking nonsense. He explained that if the US military had mentioned global warming first then republicans would be all over it. It is about who owns a fact not whether people believe it.

Back to cognitive dissonance again.

 

[Berty23]

You are wrong mate, most of the old people voted leave, not for their own benefit, no they did it for their Grandchildren. That's why Theresa May easily increased her majority when she included tackling the triple lock issue in her manifesto, and perhaps taking a bit away from pensioners, for the benefit of the working age and young people.

I can't keep up. I assume this is a joke given the fact she lost the majority.

 

[nicko31]

You are wrong mate, most of the old people voted leave, not for their own benefit, no they did it for their Grandchildren. That's why Theresa May easily increased her majority when she included tackling the triple lock issue in her manifesto, and perhaps taking a bit away from pensioners, for the benefit of the working age and young people.

Ha, ha...

Actually it was a bold move by May, many pensioners do take the view that Brexit won't effect them as they are protected by the triple lock, uneffected by the crashing GBP and rising inflation. Looks like they've dodged the bullet again

 

[portslade seagull]

You are wrong mate, most of the old people voted leave, not for their own benefit, no they did it for their Grandchildren. That's why Theresa May easily increased her majority when she included tackling the triple lock issue in her manifesto, and perhaps taking a bit away from pensioners, for the benefit of the working age and young people.

So your saying that pensioners who have paid their NI contributions all there working lives should now be punished to look after the young some of whom don't work but will expect these same payments for themselves when they retire. Nice let's hope your mum and dad are OK though. I fully expect to pay tax on my private pension and probably never see the state one but heyho let's punish those who dared to work all their lives to build it up

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I have a wide social circle, most of the people who I know that take an interest in politics voted remain though, the people in my social circle that voted Leave don't tend to think or talk about politics much, so it was not discussed to the same extent.

Is it possible they did think and talk about it .. but just not when you're around?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Perhaps I should give up on experts and get my ideas from the side of buses.

I'll take that as a no.

 

[Berty23]

So your saying that pensioners who have paid their NI contributions all there working lives should now be punished to look after the young some of whom don't work but will expect these same payments for themselves when they retire. Nice let's hope your mum and dad are OK though. I fully expect to pay tax on my private pension and probably never see the state one but heyho let's punish those who dared to work all their lives to build it up

But they didn't all pay as much as is needed though. That is the point. They are now being subsidised by young people who may not get a pension. I was chatting to an old boy ex copper at the football last weekend and he has been retired longer than he worked. It is not sustainable is it? Triple lock means that while everyone else suffers from rising costs the older folk don't to the same extent.

Employment rates are much higher now too so actually lots of people are claiming pensions who hardly worked.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I am a researcher so I read loads of all sorts of evidence and deal with numerous academics across the spectrum so yes I do pick up different arguments. In fact I have given several presentations on the difference between perception and reality and why this matters. For example the average guess by britains for proportion of population that was Muslim in 2011 census is 20% and the reality is 5% whereas the guess for Christian is 39% whereas the figure is 60%. The general public think Christians outweigh Muslims by less than 2:1 when in reality it is 12:1. I could list loads of examples and this is why referendums are a bad idea - it is impossible for us all to know everything.

Living in bubbles, confirmation bias etc it is all there. Interesting that an ex ultra conservative republican who denied all to do with climate change because of al gore went and spoke to a marine conservationist in Australia who, like him, was a devoted Christian and explained how he is working to inform people about global warming to do god's work that he changed his mind. He went back to congress and changed his tune on global warming and what happened? He lost his seat. Why? Because republican supporters voted for someone else in the primaries who said al gore was talking nonsense. He explained that if the US military had mentioned global warming first then republicans would be all over it. It is about who owns a fact not whether people believe it.

Back to cognitive dissonance again.

Generally agree referendums are not a good idea but there are exceptions. Giving the people a direct say on our future relationship with Europe was needed. The EC had changed beyond all recognition and the continous pooling/surrender of soverignity needed a specific mandate.

Yep Labour policy to cap energy prices = red Ed socialist madness, Tories nick it and propose something very similar = caring conservatism/workers party.

 

[Two Professors]

You have made an asumption. the boost has come from self assessed tax, not necessarily self employed people, but people who have tax to pay outside the scope of PAYE. This could be Capital Gains driven, if for instance there was some political uncertainty, driving people to liquidate assets they have held for some time, so they can leave the UK and take their cash with them, if they have to, or are forced to.

Please don't have a meltdown when I tell you that the self-employed bit was from the Office of National Statistics,and quoted on the BBC news.But,if you know better,then fair enough-more fake news.

 

[Two Professors]

Perhaps I should give up on experts and get my ideas from the side of buses.

What a good idea.I'm sure there must be a service 4300 running somewhere.

 

[Two Professors]

But they didn't all pay as much as is needed though. That is the point. They are now being subsidised by young people who may not get a pension. I was chatting to an old boy ex copper at the football last weekend and he has been retired longer than he worked. It is not sustainable is it? Triple lock means that while everyone else suffers from rising costs the older folk don't to the same extent.

Employment rates are much higher now too so actually lots of people are claiming pensions who hardly worked.

What a load of old rubbish.Where do you think the money came from for my parents and grandparents pensions came from?From the generation after them,that's where.I worked over 40 years for my pensions,and pay tax on them,so stop spouting crap.

 

[Baldseagull]

So your saying that pensioners who have paid their NI contributions all there working lives should now be punished to look after the young some of whom don't work but will expect these same payments for themselves when they retire. Nice let's hope your mum and dad are OK though. I fully expect to pay tax on my private pension and probably never see the state one but heyho let's punish those who dared to work all their lives to build it up

No, I am saying that pensioners who claimed they voted for the benefit of their children and grand children to Leave the EU, don't seem to care so much about their children and grandchildren facing a heavier tax burden if it means they might not get as much in the next pension increase.

Don't worry about my parents, they are doing great, they both took early retirement on final salary pensions, now in their 80's they have both been retired and receiving pension longer than they were in work, especially my mum who took time off to raise four of us, no childminder required, you could pay rent or Mortgage on one salary in those days, they started their working lives a bit later than some, having gone to (free and grant aided) university first. They find the cash comes in quicker than they can spend it, no mortgage to pay any more, prescriptions are free, TV licence is free, the bus is free, bit extra in winter for fuel (jet fuel in their case, as they go to Spain for a month in January)

A side issue, but not all of them will have paid contributions all their lives, if you claim unemployment benefit you get contribution credits. A laid off miner out of work for 20 years before hitting 65 could be on full state pension, and a guy who regularly missed a couple of payments a year because he was between jobs in an industry like construction where jobs last as long as the project, will miss out.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Generally agree referendums are not a good idea but there are exceptions. Giving the people a direct say on our future relationship with Europe was needed. The EC had changed beyond all recognition and the continous pooling/surrender of soverignity needed a specific mandate.

It is nice to see some consensus on the principle of referendums but surely it could be argued that the sheer complexity of the issue, wrapped up as it often is in a simple black & white coating guaranteed to attract visceral reactions, makes our membership of the EU the last thing that should be dealt with by a simple yes/no tick form. If ever there's a time when Britain's ancient system of representative democracy, with its checks and balances and (relatively) sober discussions, comes into its own surely it is on a subject such as this?

We don't elect our representatives for ever and should our membership of the union have become the most important issue in the minds of the British people; more important than, say, the economy, or welfare services,or health or education policies, then a political party would have arisen, just like the Labour Party once arose, to take us out. Couldn't it be said that that is better way to decide our nation's future? You have to wonder what would have happened to us in 1940 if government policy had been selected X-Factor style.

 

[Baldseagull]

Is it possible they did think and talk about it .. but just not when you're around?

It was talked about, not a lot of thought about it though, and I am being sincere.

 

[Baldseagull]

Please don't have a meltdown when I tell you that the self-employed bit was from the Office of National Statistics,and quoted on the BBC news.But,if you know better,then fair enough-more fake news.
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I do know better, the quote you provided also makes the assumption. As it states further down, the receipts were from self assessed income tax, such as self employed people submit, but they are not the only ones.

It also would be wrong to assume this is indicative of an overall improved tax take, if the increase is largely due to self employment income tax, it would likely be offset by a larger reduction in annual PAYE receipts, self employed people tend to pay less tax and NI overall on their earnings than people on PAYE.