[Politics] Brexit

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

just like a Bosman, another contract can be arranged. seem to overlook the rest of the sentence you highlighted. "no deal" is/was a negotiating position, though maybe misguided in that it says little so has been come to mean what ever the beholder means, good for leavers, terribles for remainers. have a go at answering the question posed to determine you believe the outcome will likely be. on the one hand literally no deals, no agreements on anything, no international fall backs, with consequences for all concerned; or no one single overarching "EU lite" deal but a series of sensible agreements on bilateral and international basisl. the same as happens with every other non-EU nation.

a late night condundrum. the EU have stated a priority is to protect Ireland and ensure open border with NI. with good reason, since most goods to and from Ireland transit UK (majority going no further). how does the EU hierarchy protect their Irish client while apparently holding no agreements with UK?

I'm not sure I follow all that, mon vieux, but I'll give a reply a go. The Bosman analogy may have been ill considered, but no deal is still no deal. I assume by no deal you and I can agree what we mean: at the end of negociations we Brexit with no agreement over trade, residents rights, movement of people. So, what happens is we get to use our passports, use and require use of visas, we tell lots of EU workers to leave, and we engage with 'default' trade arrangements of the sort we presently have with the likes of, er, Yemen, Peru and North Korea. Yes of course we could then start making individual deals including allowing a lot of essential workers to stay, and allowing cars to be imported from Germany and France (since we make none of our own) etc. But all this will take time to set up, and will be messy. Certainly I can see 100s of thousands of EU people resident here suddenly losing rights, randomly being turned away from the doctors, randomly sacked or not sacked depending on what an employer feels is best for him/her or what he/she can get away with, and all this done haphazardly, with the left wing media howling with anguish and the right wing media highlighting foreigners who are still working/claiming benefits in defiance of Brexit, and whipping up feelings of outrage.

I appreciate that some folk couldn't care less about the suffering of foreigners living here, so let's park that. However what about the economy and the social climate? We have not seen the true impact of Brexit on the economy yet because we have not Brexitted yet. The economy operates rather like climate. The laws of the maths of chaos apply, with crashes, when the come, hard to predict (see 1929). That said, Brexit will generate 'strange attractors' and there will be turbulence, for sure. We have seen 15% interest rates and 15% inflation rates and 5 million unemployed in my lifetime, when we supposedly had a smashing chancellor (Lawson) and PM (Thatcher). I cannot be certain we will get this again, but the likelihood is there. I find that I don't feel less concerned about this if I just dismiss it as 'project fear' and laugh into my pint. When nobody has any idea what may happen, I am not comforted by folk sneering at the possibility it might not all go swimmingly.

And then of course there is the social unrest. How are certain types going to react when they find, a year after Brexit, there are still hoards of Poles picking our fruit, and all those people from outside the EU you see swarming about in London doing casual work in the black economy are still here? I can be much more certain about the latter since these people from outside the EU should not be here now if it were truly the case that we know how to control our borders. The clue is 'outside the EU'. If I were a Brexitter, motivated by a desire to throw out foreigners, letting people in only on work visas as dictated by economic need, I would be pretty cross indeed to see no change from what we have now. If that were my mindset I would certainly look into vigilantism. Especially after an evening's worth of beer with likeminded chums.

Ghastly, by anyone's reconing.

The Irland point you raise is also very intresting. Indeed, 'no deal' Brexit would mean a hard border. Even a properly negociated Brexit is challnging; either there should be a hard border or not. I can see the fields of the border country becoming the new (and far more porous) Calais. By EU rules, as now, it will be very possible to enter Europe via boat via Italy and end up mooching about in Ireland. The only solution is to build a wall like the one Trump has built to keep out the Mexicans....... oh.

What a mess. And people STILL think this is all fantastic

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Q2 GDP growth in at 0.3%, the IMF's 1.7% still looks optimistic to me, and I thought they were always supposed to be talking things down.

We can't have our heads in the sand and keep piling on consumer debt forever, the reality of Brexit is starting to bite.

I heard an economist use the R word for the first time this morning on R4, she said 50/50 chance

Have you ever worked at the Iraqi Ministry of Information?

 

[pastafarian]

I look forward to our transitional deal and as we try to thrash out thew real deal that might be as good as the deal we already had.

Im looking forward to the end of the current EU deal as well. Its an effing crap arrangement.
Free movement, paying billions in fees and letting law making powers leech to Brussels with the added tomfoolery of their court having primacy……what a load of ballocks. Any new arrangements without those provisos will be a vast improvement.

 

[The Clamp]

Im looking forward to the end of the current EU deal as well. Its an effing crap arrangement.
Free movement, paying billions in fees and letting law making powers leech to Brussels with the added tomfoolery of their court having primacy……what a load of ballocks. Any new arrangements without those provisos will be a vast improvement.

At any cost? You are deluded. Your ignorance always shows through in the end despite your efforts to sound like you have thought all this through. Your argument simply boils down to not liking paying money to people you think are inferior. Classy.

 

[pastafarian]

And then of course there is the social unrest. How are certain types going to react when they find, a year after Brexit, there are still hoards of Poles picking our fruit, and all those people from outside the EU you see swarming about in London doing casual work in the black economy are still here? I can be much more certain about the latter since these people from outside the EU should not be here now if it were truly the case that we know how to control our borders. The clue is 'outside the EU'. If I were a Brexitter, motivated by a desire to throw out foreigners, letting people in only on work visas as dictated by economic need, I would be pretty cross indeed to see no change from what we have now. If that were my mindset I would certainly look into vigilantism. Especially after an evening's worth of beer with likeminded chums.
:

You are very naive if you think people working illegally in the black economy is just a problem from those outside of The EU.
TBH you are just being a pathetic pub bore with comments like " If I were a Brexitter, motivated by a desire to throw out foreigners" ....."If that were my mindset I would certainly look into vigilantism"
Its rather like the cretinous remarks on here about Little Englanders and brexiters being thicko racists.
Truly pathetic......seems to be people with a chip on their shoulder and unable to grasp they lost the referendum..........

 

[5ways]

Im looking forward to the end of the current EU deal as well. Its an effing crap arrangement.
Free movement, paying billions in fees and letting law making powers leech to Brussels with the added tomfoolery of their court having primacy……what a load of ballocks. Any new arrangements without those provisos will be a vast improvement.

The EU, via membership of the single market, pays for itself many many times over. You make it sound like it's all give and no take- that's not true.

 

[nicko31]

Im looking forward to the end of the current EU deal as well. Its an effing crap arrangement.
Free movement, paying billions in fees and letting law making powers leech to Brussels with the added tomfoolery of their court having primacy……what a load of ballocks. Any new arrangements without those provisos will be a vast improvement.

You're obsessed with the less than 1% (though is reality about 1% its now due to the GBP collapse of our own making) we pay to Brussels, personally I'd rather worry about the other 99%. We'll probably lose 1% off our GDP in 2017 alone as a direct cost of Brexit,

 

[pastafarian]

The EU, via membership of the single market, pays for itself many many times over. You make it sound like it's all give and no take- that's not true.

You're obsessed with the less than 1% (though is reality about 1% its now due to the GBP collapse of our own making) we pay to Brussels, personally I'd rather worry about the other 99%. We'll probably lose 1% off our GDP in 2017 alone as a direct cost of Brexit,

And you are obsessed solely with money.
You place no worth on sovereign law making powers leeching to Brussels, you place no worth on the European court having primacy,and you place no worth on controlling borders and prefer mass immigration.............not for me thanks.

 

[5ways]

And you are obsessed solely with money.
You place no worth on sovereign law making powers leeching to Brussels, you place no worth on the European court having primacy,and you place no worth on controlling borders and prefer mass immigration.............not for me thanks.

I am a realist. You can be in the club and write the rules or be outside the club and take them. What I think we will find is whatever deal we sign with the EU it will favour them, not us, because they are the larger power. You might not realise it yet but we will be less sovereign after Brexit not more.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You are very naive if you think people working illegally in the black economy is just a problem from those outside of The EU.
TBH you are just being a pathetic pub bore with comments like " If I were a Brexitter, motivated by a desire to throw out foreigners" ....."If that were my mindset I would certainly look into vigilantism"
Its rather like the cretinous remarks on here about Little Englanders and brexiters being thicko racists.
Truly pathetic......seems to be people with a chip on their shoulder and unable to grasp they lost the referendum..........

You don't understand my post at all. First I never said that illegal workers are all from outside the EU. The rest of your reply sounds exactly like the comments of a thick pub bore. You certainly have no grasp of the subjunctive. There is nothing in my post to justify your lashing out at me. You come across as a thick bigoted (angry) moron. So.....

 

[beorhthelm]

I'm not sure I follow all that, mon vieux, but I'll give a reply a go. The Bosman analogy may have been ill considered, but no deal is still no deal. I assume by no deal you and I can agree what we mean: at the end of negociations we Brexit with no agreement over trade, residents rights, movement of people.

i do not agree on the conclusions you lead from there, and that's really the point. we can and will extend residency to EU nationals as already offered, why evoke rhetoric of workers being summarily sacked? law and agreements to cover trade, commerce, movement of people all existed before 1973. rightly or wrongly, the assumption is that those agreements (and other international agreements established since) will hold. now i dont know for sure, those saying this are those saying we can leave. on the other hand the only people telling you this is not the case are those determined to tell us we cant leave the EU, so im suspicious of their motives. it certainly is a mess, not least because those that want us to remain are apparently determined to make it as messy as possible.

and regards to Ireland do you seriously think immigrants are going to make their way here via Ireland, how do they arrive there? the point of raising Ireland is to try and think about things realistically, not continuing on this path of viewing everything in extremes.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Empire 2.0 hasn't gone down too well in New Zealand - https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-po...-cant-go-back-despite-boris-johnsons-promises

It's like a man leaving his wife in the hope of hooking up with an old girlfriend only to find she's happily married to a wonderful husband and no longer interested in this fat, bald, lonely old man.

 

[nicko31]

And you are obsessed solely with money.
You place no worth on sovereign law making powers leeching to Brussels, you place no worth on the European court having primacy,and you place no worth on controlling borders and prefer mass immigration.............not for me thanks.

I'm afraid money talks, it pays for things like health, education and keep old people warm in winter.

We're up to our eyeballs in debt, but we're betting on the horses and our bets aren't coming in

 

[JC Footy Genius]

we've well established that brexit is different things, maybe people could move on. i have never had a problem with free movement, and happily exchange that for free trade. all this distracts further from the original point i came in at though, which is the notion that leaving EU leads to no trade, no aviation as so on. do you believe in that scenario, or concede its the barmy end of the remain view?

The fact so many of the gloomerati on here talk up the likelihood of ending trade and flights with Europe after Brexit suggets they are a little perturbed that their pre referendum project fear scare mongering has failed to materialise. They need a new fix. Meanwhile back in the real world BMW make long term investement decisions showing they believe strong trade will continue and Easy Jet that mainly flies to European destinations announces a huge recruitment drive. If people really believe trade will end, flights will cease, borders closed, foreigners deported etc they need to seek help. Most are probably just trolling though.

Speaking of the real world.

Factories are ramping up production at their fastest pace since 1995 and manufacturers expect to accelerate at a 40-year high in the months ahead, on strong demand from the UK and abroad.

Hiring is climbing as a result and companies are also spending more money on training their staff, the Confederation of British Industry’s survey showed, which indicates that manufacturers are taking steps to address a much-anticipated skills shortage.

“Output growth among UK manufacturers is the highest we’ve seen since the mid Nineties, prompting the strongest hiring spree we’ve seen in the last three years. Cost pressures are easing and firms are upbeat about the outlook for export orders,” said the CBI’s chief economist Rain Newton-Smith.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/25/manufacturers-hiring-fast-cope-surge-exports/

 

[5ways]

The fact so many of the gloomerati on here talk up the likelihood of ending trade and flights with Europe after Brexit suggets they are a little perturbed that their pre referendum project fear scare mongering has failed to materialise. They need a new fix. Meanwhile back in the real world BMW make long term investement decisions showing they believe strong trade will continue and Easy Jet that mainly flies to European destinations announces a huge recruitment drive. If people really believe trade will end, flights will cease, borders closed, foreigners deported etc they need to seek help. Most are probably just trolling though.

Speaking of the real world.

Factories are ramping up production at their fastest pace since 1995 and manufacturers expect to accelerate at a 40-year high in the months ahead, on strong demand from the UK and abroad.

Hiring is climbing as a result and companies are also spending more money on training their staff, the Confederation of British Industry’s survey showed, which indicates that manufacturers are taking steps to address a much-anticipated skills shortage.

“Output growth among UK manufacturers is the highest we’ve seen since the mid Nineties, prompting the strongest hiring spree we’ve seen in the last three years. Cost pressures are easing and firms are upbeat about the outlook for export orders,” said the CBI’s chief economist Rain Newton-Smith.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/25/manufacturers-hiring-fast-cope-surge-exports/

These are all good things but here is the big picture:

Quarterly growth halved since last year.

GDP per capita growth 0.15% in first 6 months of 2017

 

[5ways]

The fact so many of the gloomerati on here talk up the likelihood of ending trade and flights with Europe after Brexit suggets they are a little perturbed that their pre referendum project fear scare mongering has failed to materialise. They need a new fix. Meanwhile back in the real world BMW make long term investement decisions showing they believe strong trade will continue and Easy Jet that mainly flies to European destinations announces a huge recruitment drive. If people really believe trade will end, flights will cease, borders closed, foreigners deported etc they need to seek help. Most are probably just trolling though.

Speaking of the real world.

Factories are ramping up production at their fastest pace since 1995 and manufacturers expect to accelerate at a 40-year high in the months ahead, on strong demand from the UK and abroad.

Hiring is climbing as a result and companies are also spending more money on training their staff, the Confederation of British Industry’s survey showed, which indicates that manufacturers are taking steps to address a much-anticipated skills shortage.

“Output growth among UK manufacturers is the highest we’ve seen since the mid Nineties, prompting the strongest hiring spree we’ve seen in the last three years. Cost pressures are easing and firms are upbeat about the outlook for export orders,” said the CBI’s chief economist Rain Newton-Smith.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/07/25/manufacturers-hiring-fast-cope-surge-exports/

Also in the real world:

"Production
Within production, manufacturing decreased by 0.5% in Quarter 2 2017, due mainly to a large fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles. In addition, mining and quarrying decreased by 0.9% and water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities decreased by 0.4%.

However, these negative growths were partially offset by a 0.3% increase in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. This, however, followed a large fall of 4.2% in Quarter 1 2017."

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gros...esticproductpreliminaryestimate/aprtojune2017

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

i do not agree on the conclusions you lead from there, and that's really the point. we can and will extend residency to EU nationals as already offered, why evoke rhetoric of workers being summarily sacked? law and agreements to cover trade, commerce, movement of people all existed before 1973. rightly or wrongly, the assumption is that those agreements (and other international agreements established since) will hold. now i dont know for sure, those saying this are those saying we can leave. on the other hand the only people telling you this is not the case are those determined to tell us we cant leave the EU, so im suspicious of their motives. it certainly is a mess, not least because those that want us to remain are apparently determined to make it as messy as possible.

and regards to Ireland do you seriously think immigrants are going to make their way here via Ireland, how do they arrive there? the point of raising Ireland is to try and think about things realistically, not continuing on this path of viewing everything in extremes.

Steady. I am not intent on deducing or propagating 'extremes'. I am actually just musing on the possibilities. The facts are none of us know what will actually happen. This worries me.

Neither you nor I know whether if there are no deals we simply click back to whatever was in place before we signed the Maastrict treaty, or joined the common market.

Anyway, I felt like expressing my concerns. For the record I am not advocating, let alone campaigning to reverse the referendum decision. I posted on here a long time ago that the excitment of Brexitting was palpable to me in the evening, after I'd had a few, but in the morning I always found that I was sober, and more cautious. I always felt that Cameron allowing the likes of me to decide our future, let alone the likes of others, by a referendum was criminally irresponsible. I still think this is the case.

Anyway, the reason I keep returning to this thread like a dog returning to its vomit is the volatility: we have a governmnt that has not given the public any clue as to what it is hoping to achieve from the negociations. OK, it will say it does not want to reveal its hand. But.... this is simply absurd. They represent us. Meanwhile reasonable (and a minority of mouthy unreasonable) people like ourselves find ourselves arguing the toss about intangibles, unmeasurables, unknowables . . . . frankly it is macabre.

Regarding Ireland, you ask how people will find their way there. Exactly the same method by which they get to Calais. As the sensible Brexitter will rightly and legitimately argue, once someone is in the EU, there are little or no border controls meaning people can frely move around from one country in the EU to another. Eire is in the EU. And with a porous border into the UK via Ulster, they will all be at it. If it were me, and I had bought into the 'UK is heaven' myth, I would b heading for Belfast. Of course if you subscribe to the idea that the UK is not seen as a soft touch/the promised land then my argument is false..... in which case why are people so exercised about our being 'swamped' by illegal immigrants? Who are those people we see on the news trying to break into lorries at Calais? Where are they wanting to get to? Hmmm....

 

[beorhthelm]

Regarding Ireland, you ask how people will find their way there. Exactly the same method by which they get to Calais. As the sensible Brexitter will rightly and legitimately argue, once someone is in the EU, there are little or no border controls meaning people can frely move around from one country in the EU to another. Eire is in the EU. And with a porous border into the UK via Ulster, they will all be at it. If it were me, and I had bought into the 'UK is heaven' myth, I would b heading for Belfast. Of course if you subscribe to the idea that the UK is not seen as a soft touch/the promised land then my argument is false..... in which case why are people so exercised about our being 'swamped' by illegal immigrants? Who are those people we see on the news trying to break into lorries at Calais? Where are they wanting to get to? Hmmm....

getting to Ireland is not just about passport control, there is are substantial physical obstacles in the way. those transiting EU illegally cant "freely" move across to Ireland as you do say from Italy to France. Calais would remain the easiest option to enter the UK illegal.

whats more important about the Ireland question is how open the border would be for trade and customs. in a scenario where the EU play hard and yield little concession to UK (let say because we aren't yielding either), how do they protect Ireland? special concessions for that boarder, risking a back door for goods? or, does this problem hint that EU will have to be more accommodating than some would like to portray?

 

[studio150]

Empire 2.0 hasn't gone down too well in New Zealand - https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-po...-cant-go-back-despite-boris-johnsons-promises

It's like a man leaving his wife in the hope of hooking up with an old girlfriend only to find she's happily married to a wonderful husband and no longer interested in this fat, bald, lonely old man.

I think the ship has long sailed on this one.

Anchor butter used to be from New Zealand but is now from Wiltshire. I don't see this changing post Brexit, with New Zealand preferring to trade in the SE Asia market.

Rather than an influx of lamb it's more likely to be lower agricultural standards and a closed EU market as we chase the Trump $ just to say we have a deal

 

[Mtoto]

I'm afraid money talks, it pays for things like health, education and keep old people warm in winter.

We're up to our eyeballs in debt, but we're betting on the horses and our bets aren't coming in

Rubbish.

A bet on the favourite in every race in Britain this year would have returned 94.39pc of turnover. We're betting at much worse odds, and we're going to lose a hell of a lot more.