[Politics] Brexit

[ManOfSussex]

It would be helpful if you could clarify what you mean by our negotiating position as I expect it may differ from mine.

Do we actually have one?

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Issues caused by the EU? Like them not letting us having our cake and eat it and them being prepared and David Davis and co being like Mike Bassett: England Manager?

If we take just the living rights issue - The EU's demands v The resources of the capabilities and resources of The Home Office. I'm bemused as to why we're even putting up a pretence of having a plan on that one, because it will never be delivered.

The answer would be no then. The being under prepared issue has some validity but is being over played (ooh look our side hasn't got a big folder) as the EU negotiators are currently experiencing.

 

[Baldseagull]

Next time you get in your car count the number of French and German cars on our roads, they will want a deal and vice versa.

For someone who is concerned with the lack of manufacturing jobs, the risk Brexit poses to car manufacture in the UK surely must concern you?
You guys keep missing the point, the market for cars within the EU is bigger than the market in the UK. It is important for the EU to get an agreement on trade, it is vital to the UK, and talk of "no deal" being better than a bad deal is nuts, it does not make us look like tough negotiators, it makes us look like we don't understand the implications. I fear that the latter may be true.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Do we actually have one?

Not much of a clarification!

 

[ManOfSussex]

The answer would be no then. The being under prepared issue has some validity but is being over played (ooh look our side hasn't got a big folder) as the EU negotiators are currently experiencing.

I wasn't thinking of folders as being indicative of us being under-prepared, David Davis had his fag packet hidden in his James Bond briefcase after-all, I merely have to think of the department my local MP is secretary of state for. The EU know this too.

 

[Mental Lental]

I've lost count how many times Remainers have complained on this thread that insults don't help the debate ........

Lol "debate" that's a good one. What is there left to say after 33 THOUSAND posts on the subject? Nothing that hasn't already been written on here 100 times already. I've given up "debating" with pond life so I think I'll just make snide jibes and remarks. It makes me feel slightly better about you guys ****ing up my home country.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Not much of a clarification!

I don't believe we do though, that's my point. David Davis saying 'it'll probably be okay' may fill other people with supreme confidence at our obvious negotiating position, not for me Clive.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I wasn't thinking of folders as being indicative of us being under-prepared, David Davis had his fag packet hidden in his James Bond briefcase after-all, I merely have to think of the department my local MP is secretary of state for. The EU know this too.

As neither of us knows what is really going on in the negotiations it's hard to judge the true level of preparedness. 'British officials are frustrated at portrayals that they are unprepared. The UK thinks this frequently aired charge does not do justice to the year-long technical preparations at the Department for Exiting the EU (DexEU) and the Treasury.' Saying that it's fair to say the recent election result hasn't helped which was of course entirely self inflicted.

 

[ManOfSussex]

As neither of us knows what is really going on in the negotiations it's hard to judge the true level of preparedness. 'British officials are frustrated at portrayals that they are unprepared. The UK thinks this frequently aired charge does not do justice to the year-long technical preparations at the Department for Exiting the EU (DexEU) and the Treasury.' Saying that it's fair to say the recent election result hasn't helped which was of course entirely self inflicted.

Year long preparations by a brand new, understaffed, underfunded Whitehall department, as they all are, to extricate ourselves from the last 43 years - wow.

Davis has compared Brexit to the moon landings. To the best of my knowledge NASA planned for that for about 8 years before The Eagle landed and threw billions at it too.

I wonder how long it'll be before he utters 'Houston, we have a problem.'

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Year long preparations by a brand new, understaffed, underfunded Whitehall department, as they all are, to extricate ourselves from the last 43 years - wow.

Davis has compared Brexit to the moon landings. To the best of my knowledge NASA planned for that for about 8 years before The Eagle landed and threw billions at it too.

I wonder how long it'll be before he utters 'Houston, we have a problem.'

Your unswerving pessimism may be justified, time will tell. On a not unrelated point, how would your preferred option of another election asap followed by a new government that has an even more fluid Brexit position (currently have cake and eat it) help matters?

 

[pastafarian]

talk of "no deal" being better than a bad deal is nuts,.

Not if the bad deal is worse than no deal

“You have to pay us 100bn divorce settlement, plus 10bn a year if you want to play in the single market, you have to keep free movement and stay under the primacy of the ECJ,so prepare for more lawmaking flying our direction oh and you have no more opt outs, welcome to Schengen and the Euro currency……..sign here please.”

Umm........ no deal thanks.

And no, none us will know what the real final take will be until negotiations are concluded.
But you would be a right idiot if you didn’t say we wont sign anything if its going to be worse than not signing up at all.

 

[The Clamp]

Yes, I believe if we don't reach a deal the most likely causes will be EU intransigence (led by France) or anti-Brexit alliances within Parliament making our negotiating position untenable leading to the collaspe of the Government. If you really have to ask why the French you haven't been following European politics for the last 5,10,20 30,50,100 + years. Labour's number one goal is bringing down the government, creating an impasse exploiting Brexit is probably their best chance.

Obviously, others think everything's our fault, the governments always wrong etc

So I was correct the first time.

 

[The Clamp]

I've lost count how many times Remainers have complained on this thread that insults don't help the debate ........

Not from me you haven't. I insult loads on here so won't complain when the thickos insult the remainers.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Your unswerving pessimism may be justified, time will tell. On a not unrelated point, how would your preferred option of another election asap followed by a new government that has an even more fluid Brexit position (currently have cake and eat it) help matters?

I'm not sure if another election asap is my preferred option. After-all 'never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake' as a fat Corsican once said and the Tories are having a shocker. That said, I think Labour would just end up taking the Norway option in the national interest - think Northern Ireland for one - after an outbreak of common sense finally sweeps the country. The Tories may well end up having to do that anyway. Time will tell, as you say.

 

[CheeseRolls]

Your unswerving pessimism may be justified, time will tell. On a not unrelated point, how would your preferred option of another election asap followed by a new government that has an even more fluid Brexit position (currently have cake and eat it) help matters?

Not if the bad deal is worse than no deal

“You have to pay us 100bn divorce settlement, plus 10bn a year if you want to play in the single market, you have to keep free movement and stay under the primacy of the ECJ,so prepare for more lawmaking flying our direction oh and you have no more opt outs, welcome to Schengen and the Euro currency……..sign here please.”

Umm........ no deal thanks.

And no, none us will know what the real final take will be until negotiations are concluded.
But you would be a right idiot if you didn’t say we wont sign anything if its going to be worse than not signing up at all.

I would be more interested in hearing your views on holding the politicians accountable for the deals they are going to deliver on behalf of all of us.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf

For those with a short attention span and an aversion to clever people. This is 14 pages of considered opinion from academics and economists and not many pictures. Lots of doom and gloom around no deal and I will leave you to draw your own conclusions on this.

What I particularly like is the six BREXIT scenarios as opposed to hard/soft.

Smooth
Transitional
Cliff Edge
Chaotic
Premature
Timed out

My position is that anything other than smooth or transitional is a monumental failure by our government.

My justification is that I don't blame the EC they didn't trigger this.
I place zero financial value on sovereignty, in fact I personally view it as regressive.
I am not remotely interested in giving Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose.

Please note these are my personal justifications and I am not in anyway implying that anyone who doesn't share my perspective needs to justify the polar opposite.

 

[Baldseagull]

Not if the bad deal is worse than no deal

“You have to pay us 100bn divorce settlement, plus 10bn a year if you want to play in the single market, you have to keep free movement and stay under the primacy of the ECJ,so prepare for more lawmaking flying our direction oh and you have no more opt outs, welcome to Schengen and the Euro currency……..sign here please.”

Umm........ no deal thanks.

And no, none us will know what the real final take will be until negotiations are concluded.
But you would be a right idiot if you didn’t say we wont sign anything if its going to be worse than not signing up at all.

I think most people would prefer remaining to both the deal you describe, and the no deal Brexit, well, at least those who have an inkling of quite how devastating a no deal situation would be.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

I would be more interested in hearing your views on holding the politicians accountable for the deals they are going to deliver on behalf of all of us.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cost-of-No-Deal-The-UK-in-a-Changing-Europe.pdf

For those with a short attention span and an aversion to clever people. This is 14 pages of considered opinion from academics and economists and not many pictures. Lots of doom and gloom around no deal and I will leave you to draw your own conclusions on this.

What I particularly like is the six BREXIT scenarios as opposed to hard/soft.

Smooth
Transitional
Cliff Edge
Chaotic
Premature
Timed out

My position is that anything other than smooth or transitional is a monumental failure by our government.

My justification is that I don't blame the EC they didn't trigger this.
I place zero financial value on sovereignty, in fact I personally view it as regressive.
I am not remotely interested in giving Johnny Foreigner a bloody nose.

Please note these are my personal justifications and I am not in anyway implying that anyone who doesn't share my perspective needs to justify the polar opposite.

The politicians will be held accountable at the next General Election.

14 pages of 'considered opinion' containing lots of doom and gloom from 'The UK in a changing Europe'?

Professor Anand Menon, who, Ms Kearney said, is Professor of European Politics at King’s College, London.

What she did not say is that her guest is not neutral about the EU. Far from it. He is also director of a think-tank called The UK in a Changing Europe which contains a raft of papers that, to put it mildly, are hugely critical of the Brexit case. The one about the Norway option, for example, is headed: ‘Norwegian model for the UK; oh really.’

Further digging yields that back in 1999 – when the entire European Commission of Jacques Santer was forced to resign because of a financial scandal – Menon wrote a long article for the London Review of Books defending the importance of the Commission and claiming that, in effect, the impropriety involved was inconsequential.

http://news-watch.co.uk/bbc-bias-a-progress-report/

A new report by The UK in a Changing Europe is getting a lot of play on the BBC and the Remain media this morning. Goes without saying that the authors are EU-funded sockpuppets. The report is continuity Project Fear, predicting “legal morass and economic disaster” in the event of a no-deal Brexit. What you won’t read in the broadsheet write-ups is its admission that its own analysis is pure speculation and not based on fact. In their own words: “The analysis that follows is necessarily speculative… [there are] no facts about the future… [the analysis] requires a significant amount of speculation”. Wait, it gets worse…

The report uses the above table in its economic section to substantiate its claims. The table is ripped off from the discredited Treasury analysis from the referendum. The report itself admits these numbers are fantasy: “Of course, it turned out the Treasury was crying wolf over the short-term impact of a vote to leave”. Why is a report using debunked figures being taken seriously?

Change Britain point out that the report makes a number of misleading and exaggerated claims. It attempts to scaremonger about the impact of no deal on aviation, ignoring the fact that the EU is under an obligation to extend the SES to non-member states. Then there is the Euratom red herring. The report says “a no deal Brexit may mean that the UK has no established safety procedures and systems for the operation of nuclear power plants”. Of course the government is introducing a Nuclear Safeguards Bill to deal with withdrawal from Euratom.

As Gisela Stuart notes, the report “takes a misleadingly pessimistic view… and fails to acknowledge measures which will allow for continuity in the event of no deal”. We’ve been here before, this is the same old stale gloom rehashed…

https://order-order.com/2017/07/20/new-project-fear-report-admits-contains-no-facts/

I will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

 

[studio150]

So no excuses now, if we don't have a free trade deal with the EU, or if our financial sector runs into problems with the EU, or if we are poorer due to our exit from the EU, we can now ask Liam Fox why, as he is so confident about the future. He probably is on another planet from realists but there you go.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-historyhttp://

 

[Pretty pink fairy]

So no excuses now, if we don't have a free trade deal with the EU, or if our financial sector runs into problems with the EU, or if we are poorer due to our exit from the EU, we can now ask Liam Fox why, as he is so confident about the future. He probably is on another planet from realists but there you go.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/20/liam-fox-uk-eu-trade-deal-after-brexit-easiest-human-historyhttp://

stop crying and get on with your life
regards
DR

 

[Berty23]

Interesting headline in the telegraph tomorrow. A slight shift in a language away from the panacea we were promised to now a situation "we can survive". Fantastic. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-trade/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter