[Politics] Brexit

[Two Professors]

Talk about a conspiracy theorist!

Botswana is near the front of the alphabet and as I have a neice in law there it was the first one I thought of. As ever, no agenda.

Well as Australia and Bangladesh are also near the front,much larger in terms of population,gdp,and have recently been in the news linked to post-Brexit deals,I certainly wondered why Botswana came to the fore.Indeed,how many on here even know where it is,apart from not in europe?

 

[Two Professors]

If you cared enough you would put your head down and campaign for a different result at the next election. The ability to change direction via the ballot box, or via action by elected representatives, is a key component of a democratic system.

I whole-heartedly agree with your post,but feel that campaigning on a football supporters binfest is hardly likely to change anything whatsoever,apart from some posters blood pressure!

 

[studio150]

Indeed,how many on here even know where it is,apart from not in europe?

I do

 

[The Clamp]

I whole-heartedly agree with your post,but feel that campaigning on a football supporters binfest is hardly likely to change anything whatsoever,apart from some posters blood pressure!

That's prob why you're not on here that much then.

 

[studio150]

Well as Australia and Bangladesh are also near the front,much larger in terms of population,gdp,and have recently been in the news linked to post-Brexit deals,I certainly wondered why Botswana came to the fore.Indeed,how many on here even know where it is,apart from not in europe?

Is that the same Australia that we would have to export to for 32 years to achieve the same level of exports to the EU in one year, and the same one where our trade is worth a 10th of that from China?

 

[Two Professors]

I do

Pleased to know you're not completely euro-centric,or do you have a niece-in-law there as well?

 

[Two Professors]

That's prob why you're not on here that much then.

So many web-sites,so many morons.......

 

[The Clamp]

Well as Australia and Bangladesh are also near the front,much larger in terms of population,gdp,and have recently been in the news linked to post-Brexit deals,I certainly wondered why Botswana came to the fore.Indeed,how many on here even know where it is,apart from not in europe?

You shouldn't judge people by your own low standards. I would wager a LOT of peopple know where Botswana is except those who want Little England back and have rarely ventured further than the chippy at the end of the road.

 

[Two Professors]

Is that the same Australia that we would have to export to for 32 years to achieve the same level of exports to the EU in one year, and the same one where our trade is worth a 10th of that from China?

Perhaps our trade will tend to grow back to it's historical percentages when we are free to trade with who we wish!Don't you feel other countries might welcome trading with us to replace products from Opel,Mercedes,BMW,etc

 

[Two Professors]

You shouldn't judge people by your own low standards. I would wager a LOT of peopple know where Botswana is except those who want Little England back and have rarely ventured further than the chippy at the end of the road.

I would imagine at least 2 million people would know,as they live there.No idea how many peopple know though.Is the Brie leaking onto the keypad .As for judging people,you seem to have done it with 52% of the Referendum voters,with little or no thought or knowledge.

 

[The Clamp]

I would imagine at least 2 million people would know,as they live there.No idea how many peopple know though.Is the Brie leaking onto the keypad .As for judging people,you seem to have done it with 52% of the Referendum voters,with little or no thought or knowledge.

Leave voters are daft for voting to leave, that's just a fact. They may well be nice, forward thinking folks, most of the ones I meet are. But then again I move in nice, forward thinking circles so those are the people I am likely to meet. However noce they are, they got it wrong. End of.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Botswana is near the front of the alphabet and as I have a neice in law there it was the first one I thought of. As ever, no agenda.

Where's she living out of interest, in Gaborone?

 

[Baldseagull]

If you cared enough you would put your head down and campaign for a different result at the next election. The ability to change direction via the ballot box, or via action by elected representatives, is a key component of a democratic system.

First though we need to schedule the next referendum/ General Election, some people have been campaigning for that, but are being shouted down as undemocratic.

 

[studio150]

Perhaps our trade will tend to grow back to it's historical percentages when we are free to trade with who we wish!Don't you feel other countries might welcome trading with us to replace products from Opel,Mercedes,BMW,etc

They already trade with us and are free to replace BMWs and any other make with whatever they want.
The difference going forward would be that in additional to the EU deal they will have a UK one also.

 

[knocky1]

Looks like Trump and little Miss May want the UK be a Satellite of Love based upon an ideology of hate.

And again,this time in English.

Sorry I left out the 'to' before the infinitive.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I whole-heartedly agree with your post,but feel that campaigning on a football supporters binfest is hardly likely to change anything whatsoever,apart from some posters blood pressure!

So why do you do it?

Unbelievably hypocritical.

 

[Soulman]

Leave voters are daft for voting to leave, that's just a fact.

No it is not a fact, just your opinion.

 

[The Clamp]

No it is not a fact, just your opinion.

whevs.

 

[larus]

Oh dear, more f***-ups from the the "experts". IMF has revised upwards the expected GDP growth for the UK - again!

And yet we are still meant to be worried when the other set of "experts" (the financial markets) throw tantrums and devalue Sterling based on "fear".

The actual statistics/figures for the UK economy have all been positive since June 23rd. The only negative is the Foreign Exchange Markets reaction and devaluing Sterling but this is not based on anything apart from forward guesswork.

However, I'm not expecting these forecasts to be correct - after all, the accuracy of any economic forecast is weak at the best of times.


The UK has defied fears of a slump in the wake of the Brexit vote, forcing the International Monetary Fund to tear up its original gloomy forecast for Britain’s economy.

The Fund had predicted that the UK economy would grow by 1.1pc in 2017. However, on Monday the international body’s economists revised upwards their downbeat assessment, instead predicting Britain would grow by 1.5pc this year.

The 0.4 percentage point upgrade is the largest upward revision the Fund has made to any of the nations or regions it covers in its latest update.

The Fund had already been forced to make a U-turn in October and admit that its forecasts for UK growth in 2016 had been too pessimistic. At the time it remained doubtful about the country's prospects for this year, cutting its prediction from 1.3pc growth to 1.1pc.

Revealing its new forecasts today, the Fund said the upgrade was “mostly account of a stronger than expected performance during the latter part of 2016”.

This indicates that doom-laden predictions of Britain’s economy shuddering to a halt because of the country’s decision to vote leave were wrong.

Action taken by the Bank of England to shore up confidence after the vote, such as cutting interest rates and freeing up funds for banks to lend, helped “maintain confidence”, the Fund has previously conceded.

Over the course of 2016, the UK economy is forecast to have grown by 2pc, the Fund said, making it the fastest-expanding major advanced economy in the world, ahead of Germany at 1.7pc, the US at 1.6pc, Canada and France at 1.3pc and Italy and Japan both at 0.9pc. The EU bloc as a whole is expected to record growth of 1.6pc for last year. The global growth figure for 2016 was 3.1pc - stable with earlier predictions.

The update from the IMF comes ahead of a key speech by Theresa May on Tuesday about how the Government plans to move forward with Brexit plans.

As markets opened today, the pound tumbled to its lowest level since October's "flash crash" on speculation that the Prime Minister will push for a "hard Brexit" that will see Britain lose its single market access, sending sterling down 1.4pc against the dollar in early dealing to below $1.20. The currency has fallen almost a fifth against the dollar since the referendum.

Maury Obstfeld, IMF director of research, warned that in the long term Brexit was "likely to be negative" for the UK, creating the potential to reduce output.

"There is quite a bit of uncertainty over what form separation will take, how long it will take, the transitional agreements which will be put in place," he said. "This has created uncertainty about outcome."

A "quick resolution" to Britain's new relationship with the EU would be a "good thing" Mr Obstfeld added, but cautioned that trade barriers and staff shortages caused by any immigration controls are key risks for the UK.

"We recognise there will be disruption to trading relationships. The UK economy has become integrated with EU - there will be definite transitional costs," he said. "Hard Brexit restricts the flow of labour and one that thing that drives growth in the UK economy has been an increase in the labour supply."

The Treasury welcomed the IMF's upgrade. “The fundamentals of the UK economy are strong, and the IMF forecasts confirm their view that the UK was the fastest-growing major advanced economy last year," a spokesman said. "The Autumn Statement reaffirmed the government’s commitment to return the public finances to balance as soon as practicable, while providing flexibility to support the economy as we exit the EU.”

Looking ahead, the IMF is now forecasting Britain’s economy will grow 1.4pc in 2018, 0.3 percentage points down on its earlier prediction of 1.7pc, against advanced economies growing by 2.0pc, up from 1.9pc expansion the year before.

Singling out potential dangers to economic growth, the Fund warned that:

Recent political developments “highlight a fraying consensus” about the benefits of cross-border economic integration, adding this could have an “immediate toll”;
Advanced economies could see growth and inflation “permanently lowered” as impaired bank balance sheets restrain economies;
Large emerging economies still have “underlying vulnerabilities” that make them fragile to external shocks.

Donald Trump's protectionist policies were a particular concern, according to the IMF. The US president elect has said that he wants to see major changes in how US-China trade operates, with more American goods being bought by the developing economy to make the relationship more balanced. Some have seen this as a potential trigger for a trade war.

Mr Obstfeld called such "trade disruption" an important risk to global economic growth should it happen but played down its likelihood.

"We think countries will realise these actions are not in their own self-interest with the threat of reprisals," he said, referring to the tit-for-tat imposition of import levies. "An outbreak of a trade war would be quite disruptive."

Meanwhile the IMF said China, the world's second-largest economy, should expand by 6.5pc this year, up by 0.3 percentage points from the agency's last forecast in October.

However, that growth is supported by heavy government spending and rapid expansion of credit, which "raises the risk of a sharper slowdown", the IMF said.

 

[Two Professors]

Sorry I left out the 'to' before the infinitive.

Still doesn't make sense,but thanks for trying 6/10