[Politics] Brexit

[GoldWithFalmer]

You're raising the question of determinism here. A very interesting subject. I have a scientific background and I'm firmly rooted in the no, we can't determine everything camp. That said, it's 21:19 and a Sunday evening, and I'm not really wanting to go further with this at the moment. Shame it's not a Friday night and we're both in Craft Beer Co.

I'm no bible basher,it's a subject i find fascinating too and you are correct,wrong time and place but i leave you with this thought/question........

If everything is a firm and decided accident and a lonely one at that,from the very smallest matter or atoms right through to the suns that are infinitesimally larger than ours-the question is this...........................what is our universe held within?

 

[Lincoln Imp]

This debate hasn't been going for 25 years yet, so only limited historical data is available to indicate you'll still be going on about Brexit in 25 years time. However, you have to admit that your postings on this thread show no visible signs of easing up yet!

Ah yes, but I've not yet claimed that any bad economic news is down to Brexit. That was the charge.

 

[BigGully]

Jesus. I know what you think of the value of the pound as you've been blathering on about this single issue of yours for months now. For once you alluded to something broader than this, which is what interested me. I thought you might have something else to say beyond exchange rates go up and the pound was overvalued.

I have not once started a post about sterlings value, not a single time, it has only been in response to those remainers that cling to the hope that the 15% weakening might offer some indication that our overall economy might be failing due to Brexit, its become nearly their only hope to try to justify their position.

Again there are plenty of economic indicators that havent played out as remainers would have predicted pre/post referendum, quite the contrary when actual current data confirms that we have been the fastest growing economy within G10.

It seems to me that europhiles would be better placed to argue their position on a different issue other than some unlikely future forecasts whilst current UK economic performance seems so favourable.

 

[JC Footy Genius]

Interesting piece on Sky News from Burnley just now. 67 per cent Leave vote and it seems that most Leavers were driven by factors not directly connected to our membership of the European Union. I suppose most of us knew that anyway.

Interesting piece on Sky news from Boston. More people voted leave in Boston than anywhere else in the country and it seems most of them were driven by factors directly connected to our membership of the EU. You may know the area.

 

[Soulman]

I have given my opinions and the logic, but it does not seem to be able to penetrate the thick, dense, shield you guys have to deflect any logic that does not fit into the sunny uplands of Brexit.
You say you do not see "no end of risks" as you think I do, but do you see any at all?

"t it does not seem to be able to penetrate the thick, dense,"......"Are you a ****ing goldfish?" this just about sums up how you feel and react to anybody that does not agree with your Remain opinion.
Your opinion and some differ, and all the insults will not change the opinion.

 

[Mr H]

Boston. Unemployment rate well below the UK average. Jobs problem?

 

[Soulman]

Mark Blyth, a professor of political economy, was one of only a few academics who correctly guessed three of the biggest political shocks of 2016. The Brown University lecturer was adamant Britain would vote to leave the European Union, Donald Trump would become next president and Italy would vote No in its referendum. The professor’s calls were a stark contrast against what the vast majority of polls and other pundits had predicted. Prof Blyth believes the crumbling bloc may fall even before Britain triggers Article 50, the formal process for the leaving the European Union. He also warned that attempts to stop Marine Le Pen being elected by the left uniting behind Thatcherite Francois Fillon could backfire.


Speaking on BBC’s Newsnight he said: “For all this... about Brexit and whether Britain should have left, it might be the case the EU ceases to exist before Article 50 is invoked. “You have an election coming up in France. It’s entirely plausible the National Front will win the first round. “At that point everyone in France is meant to organise a giant blocking collation to stop them being elected. “That would mean everyone on the French left would have to vote for someone who basically wants to bring Thatcher’s economic policy menu to France, and that’s after eight years of stagnations – that’s going to be a very hard sell.”


The bold prediction caused a mix reaction of both optimism and dread on social media. One person tweeted: “Fingers crossed!” Another said: “That’s bold mate” While a final user added: “Yep, not gonna happen”.


Nigel Farage has repeatedly warned a Le Pen victory during the French election could trigger the collapse of the EU. “If she did win, it would be the end of the European project,” he said late last year. The former Ukip leader has also launched a scathing attack on Angela Merkel – one of the EU's core supporters who herself is facing an election in the autumn of 2017. Discussing Mrs Merkel's support of Schengen, Mr Farage told Fox Business: “We saw that horrendous crashing into the Christmas market in Berlin just before Christmas. “The person driving that lorry had served a prison sentence in Italy – through the European Union’s free movement he got to Germany.


“He had applied for asylum and refugee status, and having been refused, he hadn’t been removed. And then, when he was the most wanted man in the whole of Europe, he was able to cross the border into France and into Italy when he was finally caught in Milan.


“I think the public, right across Europe, are furious that the Schengen free movement area doesn’t just mean the free movement of good people – it means the free movement of bad people, Kalashnikovs, explosives and everything else.”

www.express.co.uk/news/uk/750018/European-Union-Brexit-Trump-predication-collapse

 

[Baldseagull]

Look mate, I dont know you and beyond a chat about Brexit or otherwise we dont need to be mates, but I would appreciate it if you lay off the personal insults, as for risks all economies have risks but there is nothing to suggest that there is any current data that suggest those risks are heightened.

If you look at all the data without the knowledge of Brexit about to happen, you would be wondering why the value of the pound is so low. That data tells me that at least the players that move the market, believe the risks are heightened, Deustche Bank, may well say the fundamentals say the pound is undervalued, but they are not buying it up in a hurry are they.

 

[Baldseagull]

"t it does not seem to be able to penetrate the thick, dense,"......"Are you a ****ing goldfish?" this just about sums up how you feel and react to anybody that does not agree with your Remain opinion.
Your opinion and some differ, and all the insults will not change the opinion.

The Goldfish comment was entirely appropriate. My opinion and that of others differ, but the guy should be able to remember what it was he was talking about.
The other one is fair, no matter what anyone says, your guys Brexit beliefs are impervious, if only your skin was as thick.
I really hope the worst that happens to us is I get to look like a prick for getting it all wrong, and you suffer a bit of my ungracious retorts to accusations of doom mongering.

 

[BigGully]

If you look at all the data without the knowledge of Brexit about to happen, you would be wondering why the value of the pound is so low. That data tells me that at least the players that move the market, believe the risks are heightened, Deustche Bank, may well say the fundamentals say the pound is undervalued, but they are not buying it up in a hurry are they.

What a bizarre post, how can you possibly know whether they are buying sterling or not or if this really is relevent to the validity of its statement ?

Firstly sterling has not collapsed and is not going to trigger hyper inflation, thats not on the menu, so a few football posters on this forum trying to determine what is and what isnt the preferable value of sterling for the wider economy and then its likely impact on inflation rates has become somewhat pointless, both sides just using our own flawed analysis.

However if remainers see sterlings value as a prime indicator of our economy's future performance then the Deutsche Banks statement should allay your fears and the UKs position as the fastest growing economy within the G10 countries even more-so.

 

[Lincoln Imp]

Interesting piece on Sky news from Boston. More people voted leave in Boston than anywhere else in the country and it seems most of them were driven by factors directly connected to our membership of the EU. You may know the area.

I know it very well. My father was born there. It has a nice stump. A generally pleasant atmosphere. Some lovely Georgian buildings. Whereas in Burnley most people voted Leave for reasons not directly connected to the EU, in Boston most did so because the large number of EU migrants is putting certain pressures on the local community. "People talking jibber-jabber in the streets" as a local elsewhere put it. There are other places where this is true. But not a large number of places. Nowhere nearly as many places that suffer from the more serious problems of poor housing stock, lost industries, terrible public services and, perhaps, the stresses caused by non-EU migration. I have never said that everybody voted Leave for non-EU reasons, merely that many did.

 

[Baldseagull]

What a bizarre post, how can you possibly know whether they are buying sterling or not or if this really is relevent to the validity of its statement ?

Firstly sterling has not collapsed and is not going to trigger hyper inflation, thats not on the menu, so a few football posters on this forum trying to determine what is and what isnt the preferable value of sterling for the wider economy and then its likely impact on inflation rates has become somewhat pointless, both sides just using our own flawed analysis.

However if remainers see sterlings value as a prime indicator of our economy's future performance then the Deutsche Banks statement should allay your fears and the UKs position as the fastest growing economy within the G10 countries even more-so.

We know they are not buying it up, because the price is low, and it is getting lower.
It indicates how the big banks, such as Deutsche bank feel about the economy, these are the types of institution that move the market with large purchases, if they were buying it up, the price would rise.
It is like the value of a house, near great transport links, good schools etc. it should be high, but if you see an asking price 30% lower than expected, you might find that there is a planning application for a landfill site over the road, buyers will be less keen and the price will be low until the result of the application is known, it gets granted and the price drops further, it gets dismissed the price returns to normal.
Brexit is having a similar effect on the pound, it tells us that despite how good a buy it might look based on the normal measures of the economy, there is something in the pipeline that buyers (banks and hedge funds) believe can stuff it all up.
If you think differently and are confident that it will rise significantly, back it.

 

[alfredmizen]

We know they are not buying it up, because the price is low, and it is getting lower.
It indicates how the big banks, such as Deutsche bank feel about the economy, these are the types of institution that move the market with large purchases, if they were buying it up, the price would rise.
It is like the value of a house, near great transport links, good schools etc. it should be high, but if you see an asking price 30% lower than expected, you might find that there is a planning application for a landfill site over the road, buyers will be less keen and the price will be low until the result of the application is known, it gets granted and the price drops further, it gets dismissed the price returns to normal.
Brexit is having a similar effect on the pound, it tells us that despite how good a buy it might look based on the normal measures of the economy, there is something in the pipeline that buyers (banks and hedge funds) believe can stuff it all up.
If you think differently and are confident that it will rise significantly, back it.

Interesting that you mention Deutsche bank..........and btw it's the funds that will be the buyers and sellers and holders.of currencies , they might use the big banks to do it , but they won't be the main players.

 

[Two Professors]

I bet the only thing Deutsche Bank is buying at the moment is expensive presents for US officials to try to get their $14 Billion fine reduced!They are not just part of the corrupt swamp The Donald wants to drain,they mortgaged a great deal of it as well.They seem quite complimentary about Barclays today,though,so maybe not all bad.

 

[Jim in the West]

What a bizarre post, how can you possibly know whether they are buying sterling or not or if this really is relevent to the validity of its statement ?

Firstly sterling has not collapsed and is not going to trigger hyper inflation, thats not on the menu, so a few football posters on this forum trying to determine what is and what isnt the preferable value of sterling for the wider economy and then its likely impact on inflation rates has become somewhat pointless, both sides just using our own flawed analysis.

However if remainers see sterlings value as a prime indicator of our economy's future performance then the Deutsche Banks statement should allay your fears and the UKs position as the fastest growing economy within the G10 countries even more-so.

"The biggest bet made by speculators across currencies last week was for further falls in the pound, according to data from CFTC, a US regulator." The UK is currently a basket case economically and politically. Too much debt, public services a mess (and no money to sort them out), no sensible political opposition, media run by non-Dom billionaires.... and amongst all f this we are going to ditch our biggest trading partners and try to exist on our own. And in case anyone raises the red herring of the FTSE, it is down about 7% in dollar terms since the referendum. If you measure it in Sterling, it looks ok - but remember that GBP is behaving like a third world currency at the moment.

 

[alfredmizen]

"The biggest bet made by speculators across currencies last week was for further falls in the pound, according to data from CFTC, a US regulator." The UK is currently a basket case economically and politically. Too much debt, public services a mess (and no money to sort them out), no sensible political opposition, media run by non-Dom billionaires.... and amongst all f this we are going to ditch our biggest trading partners and try to exist on our own. And in case anyone raises the red herring of the FTSE, it is down about 7% in dollar terms since the referendum. If you measure it in Sterling, it looks ok - but remember that GBP is behaving like a third world currency at the moment.

Sterling is behaving like a third world currency?? You are clueless and talking pure unadulterated bollox.

 

[Two Professors]

Third world economy? What,like the socialist paradise of Venezuela?Inflation running at over 1000% and printing 20,000 Bolivar denomination bank notes (bit like us printing a £10,000 note) which are still worth sod-all.That's a third world economy.

 

[studio150]

Third world economy? What,like the socialist paradise of Venezuela?Inflation running at over 1000% and printing 20,000 Bolivar denomination bank notes (bit like us printing a £10,000 note) which are still worth sod-all.That's a third world economy.

And surprisingly the value of the pound against the Bolivar is still lower than it was back in June. I wonder why

 

[vegster]

Sterling is behaving like a third world currency?? You are clueless and talking pure unadulterated bollox.

About time it caught up with the rest of the country! We have a Third World Road and Rail system, Third World Education and the NHS is going the same way!

 

[Two Professors]

And surprisingly the value of the pound against the Bolivar is still lower than it was back in June. I wonder why

Possibly the fact that they export 3 times more oil than us might give you a clue!If you are such an admirer,why not move there.